研究报告全文：24Aug2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateOUTPERFORMChinaTechnologyMaintainImplicationsofNVIDIAFY2Q24AIdemandstrengthpoisedtocontinueinto2024NVIDIAreportedanotherstrongsetofresultsandupbeatguidancesolidlyabovehigh-barofmarketexpectationsInparticularstrongguidanceoutlookofChinaTechnologySectordatacentersegmentimpliescontinuedAIdemandinto2H232024EOtherkeyhighlightsinclude1FY3Q24EguidancebeatonstrongertoplinemarginandAIAlexNGdemandvisibilitytoextendinto20242mgmtguidedacceleratedQoQcapacity85239000881alexngcmbicomhkexpansionwithadditionalCoWoSsuppliers3Chinaaccountedfor20-25datacenterrevenueimplyinglimitedimpactfromUSexportrestriction4newClaudiaLIUGPUchipsL40SGH200bothwillstartshipmentinthisquarterWebelievetheclaudialiucmbicomhkbeatwillfuelAItechrallytocontinueintorestofyearbenefitingsupplychainnamesandNVIDIApartnersFY2Q24strongbeatonrobustdatacentercomputingdemandNVIDIAreportedFY2Q24revenueofUS135bn88QoQ101YoY2322aboveguidanceconsensusofUS110bn1104bnAdjnon-GAAPGPMreached71244pptsQoQ253pptsYoYaboveconsensusof701Bysegmentdatacentergamingprofessionalvisualautomotiverevenuedelivered17122-2415YoYwellaboveconsensusexceptautomotivesegment1DatacenterstrongsaleswasdrivenbystrongdemandfrommajorcloudinternetplayersforgenerativeAIandLLMcomputingcapacityMajorclientsaredeployingin-volumeHGXsystemsbasedonHopperandAmperearchitectureTensorCoreGPUs2Gamingrevenuereturnedtopositivegrowthbackedbyimprovingchannelinventoryproductupgradedemandandpullfromupcomingtraditionalpeakseason3AutoWeaker-than-expectedautomotivesegmentsaleswasduetodeceleratedgrowthofChinasNEVshipmentUpbeatFY3Q24outlookCoWoScapacitytoexpandQoQinto2024MgmtguidedFY3Q24salesofUS160bn-2317YoY55QoQwhichis28aboveconsensusofUS125bnAdjGPMrangeof72-73alsobeatconsensusof705TocaterforstrongdemandfordatacentreproductsNVIDIAhasdevelopedandqualifiedadditionalcapacityandsuppliersforkeyprocessessuchasCoWoSMgmtexpectedchipsupplytorampupsequentiallythroughoutnextyearMgmtalsoindicatedlimitedimpactfromcurrentUSexportrestrictiontoChinaasChinanowaccountedfor20-25oftotaldatacenterrevenueincludingcomputeandnetworkingsolutionsOtherhighlights1NVDAcommentedAIdemandvisibilitywillextendinto20242newGPUchipsL40SandGH200bothwillstarttoshipinthisquarter3CompanyapprovedanadditionalUS25bninstockbuybacksValuationTableMktCapPricePExPBxROENameTickerUSmnLCFY23EFY24EFY23EFY23ENVIDIANVDAUS11637654711444507542297AMDAMDUS1768031093972643266IntelINTCUS142308346252001417TSMC2330TT45726956018715342242SKHynix000660KS66633120900-17916-126SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk24Aug2023Figure1NVIDIAFY2Q24earningssummaryNVIDIANVDAUSnon-GAAPActualConsensusUSmnFY1Q24FY2Q24FY2Q23QoQYoYFY2Q24EDiffRevenue7192135076704881011104222EPScentUS1092705114842920730GPM66871245944ppt253ppt70111pptEndMarketRevenueDatacenter4284103203806141171798129Gaming224024902042112223805ProfessionalVisualization29537949628-2431919OEMIP7765140-16-5492-29Automotive296253220-1515309-18EndMarketRevenueMixDatacenter60765772Gaming31183022ProfessionalVisualization4373OEMIP1021Automotive4233SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMFigure2GlobalkeycloudplayersCAPEXandFigure3GlobalkeycloudplayersCAPEXandYoYintensityratiotrendUSDmnUSDmn45000164500012040000144000010035000350001280300003000010250006025000820000402000015000620150001000010000450000500020-20004Q111Q142Q163Q184Q202Q221Q231Q113Q122Q134Q143Q151Q174Q172Q191Q203Q21MetaMSFTGoogleCAPEXCAPEXIntensityAmazonOracleYoYSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMFigure4GlobalservershipmentandYoYgrowthFigure5ChinaservershipmentandYoYgrowthmnunitsmnunits45251450402012403515103030100820255200610015040-51002-1005-1000-2000-151Q111Q123Q133Q143Q151Q171Q181Q193Q203Q213Q223Q113Q121Q131Q141Q151Q163Q163Q173Q183Q191Q201Q211Q221Q231Q111Q121Q131Q141Q151Q161Q171Q181Q191Q203Q113Q123Q133Q143Q153Q163Q173Q183Q193Q201Q213Q211Q223Q221Q23ChinaservershipmentYoYGlobalservershipmentYoYSourceIDCBloombergCMBIGMSourceIDCBloombergCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE224Aug2023Figure6GlobalfablessIDMsemi2Q23resultsand3Q23guidance3Q23EFY23ECompany1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q23GuidanceGuidanceCommentOutlookRevenueQoQGrowthNVIDIA8-19-1221988up19-Datacenter171YoYdrivenbyCSPandlargeconsumerinternetcompaniesGaming22YoYfueledbyGeForceRTX40seriesGPUsforlaptopsanddesktopsProfessionalvisualization-24YoYAutomotive15YoYdrivenbyself-drivingplatformsbasedonrenewabledriveOrinSoCandNEVlowerautomotivedemandparticularlyinChinaAMD2211-151-40up65-2Q23QoQDC2Client35Gaming-10Embedded-73Q23QoQClientDataCentertogrowdouble-digitGamingembeddedtodecline2023DataCenteruphigh-singledigityoyIntel-11-170-8-1711up35-3Q23ClientCPUshipmentstocloselymatchsell-through3Q23Datacenternetworkedgecontinuetofacemixedmacrosignalsandelevatedinventoryinnetworkedge3Q23IFSandMobileyestrongQoQYoYgrowth3Q23ServerCPUstodeclineQoQbeforerecoveringinQ4Broadcom5460-21--2Q23isguidanceQualcomm4-24-17-2-9up04-3Q23QoQAndroidhandsetflatIoTmid-single-digitdeclineAutolowdouble-digitgrowthTexasInstruments261-11-63up04-3Q23donotexpectsignificantchangeinend-marketsperformancewhichmeansweaknessacrosstheboardwiththeexceptionofautomotiveInfineon41015-54-1Flat12-162Q23strongautomotiveindustrialbutexpecttonormalizecomputingCEcommperformedYoYwellinchallengingenvironment3Q23BydivisiondonotexpectmajordifferencesinQoQgrowthSTMicro08132-42up125-103Q23impactedbyproductmixchgininPersonalElectronicsYoY3Q23QoQADGsingle-digitgrowthAMSflattishMDGslightlydecreaseMediaTek119-9-24-123up75-3Q23revenuetoimproveinsmartphonesconnectivityandPMICoffsettingdeclineinTVconsumerONSemi575-4-77up25-3Q23AutoindustrialtoincreaseQoQOthermarketsdownmidtohighsingle-digitsplanfurtherexitsinnon-coremarketGrossMarginNVIDIA66435463657173--AMD48464243445051-2Q23yoyweakerClientpartiallyoffsetbystrongEmbedded3Q23PositiveimpactfromstrongDatacenterClientbizIntel50364339344043-3Q23marginupQoQonhighersalesandlowerpre-PRQinventory4Q23upQoQonlowerpre-PRQreservesBroadcom6767666770---2Q23guidancedown60bpsQoQduetoproductmixQualcomm585657575555--2Q23QTLEBTmargin66QCTEBTmargin243Q23QTLEBTmargin64-68QCTEBTmargin24-26TexasInstruments707069666564--3Q23guidanceconsidereddepreciationrelatedcostsfromaddedcapacityovertimeInfineon434344474745-472Q23QoQdropduetoincrementalunderutilizationchargesadditionalramp-upcostsandweakercurrencyFY23GPMguidancestayunchangedSTMicro47474848504948exceed2Q233Q23GPMhitbyplannedlowerproductionactivityamidhighinventoryandweakCE48demand2H23impactedbyunusedcapacitychargesfor100bpsMediaTek50494948484847--3Q23SteadyGPMgivenstablecompetitivelandscapehealthyinventorylevelandreduced15pptspricingpressureONSemi49504849474746-48-2Q23GPMstrengthdrivenbysiliconcarbidebusinessprofitabilityimprovementdespiteheadwindsfromEFK3Q23lowerfactoryutilizationEFKheadwindsanddilutiveimpactofsiliconcarbidebusinessDaysofInventoryDOINVIDIA10092146209163----AMD716894106127141--2Q23Inventoryincreasedforrampofadvproducts2H23inventorytodeclinewithshipmentofthisproduct2H23PCmarketwithmorenormalizedinventorylevels2H23DOIaround110-120daysvsprior75-80daysIntel118113131139152130--2Q23overallinventoryhasnormalized2Q23NEXinventorycorrectionin2QcontinueintoQ32H23ServerCPUinventorydigestiontopersistin2HBroadcom5659585965----Qualcomm88101117154149157--2Q23AndroidcontinueinventoryburnIoTinventoryelevatedTexasInstruments127125133157195207--2Q23DOIup12daysQoQ3Q23inventorydollarstoincreaseQoQInfineon121124120140143149--2Q23satisfactoryinAutomotiveGIPbutoutofnormalrangelevelforPSSCSS2H23Inventorydigestiontocontinuewithcapacityidlechargetopeakin4Q23STMicro10210395100121124--2Q23inventorydaysoutofsatisfactoryrange3Q23inventorycorrectioninpersonalelectronicstocontinue2H23reduceproductionactivitytoboostinventoydigestionaimtobringdownDOIto100-110daysbyyearendMediaTek113104104114125107--2Q23customersstillmanaginginventorylevelsduetoweakdemandmobilephoneinventorylevelsnormalizedsmartedgeTVinventorypre-buildin1H233Q23nomoreheavyinventorydigestionbyaggressivepricingONSemi137134125134157161--2Q2354daysofbridgeinventorytosupportfabtransitionandsiliconcarbiderampbaseinventorydaysdeclined7daysQoQ2Q23DistributioninventoryDOIup07weekQoQat77weeks2Q23DistributioninventorydigestioncontinuesSourceCompanyannouncementBloombergCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE324Aug2023Fig7AITechSupplyChainStockMktCapPEPBROEPerformancePriceFY24CompanyTickerLLCmnUSDFY23EFY23EFY24EFY23E1M2M3MYTDEAIChipsNvidia英伟达NVDAUS4711611637651444507542320297566965432224AMD超威半导体AMDUS109431768033972643231661111711690Marvell美满电子MRVLUS6155289028940334348826420338660Cambricon寒武纪688256CH153068769--136155177841771591805JingjiaMicro景嘉微300474CH705844397865648877113104421116293HygonInfoTech海光信息688041CH51316397918646655972162335332279Loongson龙芯中科688047CH92875121169810409183536136732387Average92257314110873561006863MemorySKHynixSK海力士000660KS12090066633-179161412661365237612Samsung三星电子005930KS68200308187458145131229316604233Micron美光MUUS651971403--1618114048020304GigaDevice兆易创新603986CH9178410453328403585173248154105MontageTech澜起科技688008CH507825540310544895147281138201GiantecSemi聚辰股份688123CH5334115720913839331105329883315Average401259373344941879979FoundryTSMC台积电2330TT5604572691871534235242045167249UMC联电2303TT440517343979416151692216710482SMIC中芯国际688981CH486426752588533242241072925182HuaHongSemi华虹半导体1347HK19325807112115080783221444250291Average2462242320134621487856OSATTongFuMicro通富微电002156CH1912397957629621193720013975160JCETGroup长电科技600584CH307475542691732119831045347334Average4222342119601529614247AIServerFoxconn工业富联601138CH2265618791861543127173433155281467IndustrialInspur浪潮信息000977CH42168535261206322812381201135959Lenovo联想集团992HK821127027610620203062434134281Average174155282520149161266902OpticalmoduleInnolight中际旭创300308CH12371365762237373611205611004113576TFCOptical天孚通信300394CH92355013691487122103179187865762643CommAccelink新易盛002281CH2774303330825530271021436790765Average5403727564134726513592328PCBWUSPrinted沪电股份002463CH21465622255196423616911301182803VictoryGiant胜宏科技300476CH20912481187155232012116716938616TechDSBJ东山精密002384CH18554362106861714162175387266250Average106861714162175387266250SwitchZTE中兴通讯000063CH34921778166144252215315372113350Unisplendour紫光股份000938CH2559100652732182120799412663312RuiJieNetworks锐捷网络301165CH4611360334426053451581068911352Average26120733291301184813338SourceBloombergCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE424Aug2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5