随着美联储加息周期步入尾声，市场的一致看法再次转向乐观。有关经济软着陆和“完美的通胀减缓”的论调达到了年初以来的最高水平。
　　在过去的几个月里，我们看到市场情绪明显好转，债务上限僵局得到解决，美国经济持续保持韧性，再次引发了更多关于经济软着陆和“完美的通胀减缓”的讨论。市场一致认为，本轮美联储加息周期已经结束，降息周期将于2024年年初到年中之间开始，但不会引发经济衰退。
　　这导致市场再一次在某种程度上忽视了信贷风险。CDS指数在8月初达到了加息周期开始以来的最低水平，高收益率利差也是如此。从历史上看，高收益利差往往会在加息周期之后或降息周期的早期阶段飙升。
　　在5月份的报告（(《美国信贷紧缩-潜在风险和影响》)）中，我们探讨了信贷风险背后的共同主题，以及历史上信贷紧缩是如何影响市场的。本报告将讨论近期信贷动态和主要信贷指标的更新，以及我们坚持认为未来几个月信贷风险值得关注的原因。
　　近期一些事态发展暗示市场，信贷风险危机尚存。
　　自加息周期开始以来，我们看到债务水平逐渐上升，利率负担加重，破产申请增多。
　　近期信用评级下调提醒人们，市场持续存在信用风险。
　　监管机构提出了加强银行的议案。这既说明了对现有规则的担忧，也可能影响未来几年的银行活动。
　　小银行从特别项目中借款、资产负债表减值、盈利疲软以及在吸引和维持存款方面的挣扎表明困难依然存在。
　　短期内，美国政府债券面临的诸多不利因素可能会将收益率推向周期高点。这将提高市场利率，恶化银行的未实现亏损。
　　债券的发行量高企可能会对债券市场的流动性造成压力。
　　央行干预外汇的几率上升（日本或中国的风险最高），可能会加剧美国国债的短期供需失衡。
　　

研究报告全文：策略2023年8月17日全球策略美国信贷风险是雨过天晴还是如履薄冰随着美联储加息周期步入尾声市场的一致看法再在这些事态发展中我们看到贷款条件指标在过去次转向乐观有关经济软着陆和完美的通胀减缓几个月中继续收紧的论调达到了年初以来的最高水平包括资深核贷人员意见调查报告和小企业调在过去的几个月里我们看到市场情绪明显好转查在内的调查数据显示银行收紧了贷款条债务上限僵局得到解决美国经济持续保持韧性件再次引发了更多关于经济软着陆和完美的通胀减宋林贷款质量可能已达到转折点不良贷款率和缓的讨论市场一致认为本轮美联储加息周期已85239118267拖欠贷款已触底反弹10月份学生贷款恢复经结束降息周期将于2024年年初到年中之间开lynnsongccbintlcom偿还可能会在第四季度增加压力始但不会引发经济衰退因此未来几个月需要再融资的借款人将面临利率这导致市场再一次在某种程度上忽视了信贷风险大幅提高银行贷款意愿降低和经济放缓的三重打CDS指数在8月初达到了加息周期开始以来的最低击水平高收益率利差也是如此从历史上看高收益利差往往会在加息周期之后或降息周期的早期阶不可避免的是其中一些借款人将无法找到合适的姜越段飙升解决方案来满足他们的融资需求不良贷款很可能85239118243会增加在这种情况下我们预计会出现向优质资verajiangccbintlcom在5月份的报告美国信贷紧缩-潜在风险和影产出逃的现象这也是我们更看好美国政府债券中响中我们探讨了信贷风险背后的共同主题期前景的理由之一以及历史上信贷紧缩是如何影响市场的本报告将讨论近期信贷动态和主要信贷指标的更新以及我在下半年展望中2023年下半年全球策略展望和们坚持认为未来几个月信贷风险值得关注的原因资产配置光辉闪烁未必是金我们讨论了两个短期的可能趋势1随着过度乐观情绪的正常赵文利近期一些事态发展暗示市场信贷风险危机尚存化和典型的第三季度季节性疲软的出现美国股市85239118279自加息周期开始以来我们看到债务水平逐将先扬后抑2在债券发行量高企的情况下美国cliffzhaoccbintlcom渐上升利率负担加重破产申请增多债券将面临短期阻力但这很可能是一个有利的积累窗口近期信用评级下调提醒人们市场持续存在信用风险这两种趋势目前似乎都在发生我们很可能在短期内看到债券的积累窗口监管机构提出了加强银行的议案这既说明了对现有规则的担忧也可能影响未来几年现在的关键问题是从完美的通胀减缓到经济软着的银行活动陆的说法能否实现在信贷风险恶化之前央行能否声称恢复健康通胀的任务已经完成随着大宗商小银行从特别项目中借款资产负债表减品价格的反弹和高于预期的PPI抵消了小于预期的值盈利疲软以及在吸引和维持存款方面的CPI反弹这个问题的答案还远未明朗挣扎表明困难依然存在然而由于市场在很大程度上对这一乐观前景进行短期内美国政府债券面临的诸多不利因素可能会了定价而且股票与债券相比仍处于20多年来最昂将收益率推向周期高点这将提高市场利率恶化贵的水平之一我们仍然认为美国股市面临下行风银行的未实现亏损险而美国债券则面临上行风险债券的发行量高企可能会对债券市场的流动性造成压力央行干预外汇的几率上升日本或中国的风险最高可能会加剧美国国债的短期供需失衡建银国际证券2STRATEGY17August2023AnalystcertificationsTheauthorsofthisdocumentherebydeclarethatialloftheviewsexpressedinthisdocumentaccuratelyreflecthisherpersonalviewsaboutanyandallofthesubjectsecuritiesorissuersandwerepreparedinanindependentmanneriinopartofanyofhishercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificrecommendationsorviewsexpressedinthisdocumentandiiiheshereceivesnoinsiderinformationnon-publicprice-sensitiveinformationinrelationtothesubjectsecuritiesorissuerswhichmayinfluencetherecommendationsmadebyhimTheauthorsofthisdocumentfurtherconfirmthatineitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociatesasdefinedintheCodeofConductforPersonsLicensedbyorRegisteredwiththeSecuritiesandFuturesCommissionissuedbytheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommissionhasdealtintradedorwilldealintradethesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentinamannercontrarytohisheroutstandingrecommendationorneitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociateshasdealtinortradedinthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisdocumentorwillsodealinortradesuchsecuritieswithin3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisdocumentiineitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociatesservesasanofficerofanyofthecompaniescoveredinthisdocumentandiiineitherheshenorhisherrespectiveassociateshasanyfinancialinterestsinthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentDisclaimersThisdocumentispreparedbyCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimitedCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimitedisawholly-ownedsubsidiaryofCCBInternationalHoldingsLimitedCCBIHandChinaConstructionBankCorporationCCBInformationhereinhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesbelievedtobereliablebutCCBInternationalSecuritiesLimiteditsaffiliatesandorsubsidiariescollectivelyCCBISdonotguaranteerepresentandwarranteitherexpressorimplieditscompletenessoraccuracyorappropriatenessforanypurposeoranypersonwhatsoeverOpinionsandestimatesconstituteourjudgmentasofthedateofthisdocumentandaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCCBISseekstoupdateitsresearchasappropriatebutvariousregulationsmaypreventitfromdoingsoBesidescertainindustryreportspublishedonaperiodicbasisthelargemajorityofreportsarepublishedatirregularintervalsasappropriateaccordingtotheanalystsjudgmentForecastsprojectionsandvaluationsareinherentlyspeculativeinnatureandmaybebasedonanumberofcontingenciesReadersshouldnotregardtheinclusionofanyforecastsprojectionsandvaluationsinthisdocumentasarepresentationorwarrantybyoronbehalfofCCBISthattheseforecastsprojectionsorvaluationsortheirunderlyingassumptionswillbeachievedInvestmentinvolvesriskandpastperformanceisnotindicativeoffutureresultsInformationinthisdocumentisnotintendedtoconstituteorbeconstruedaslegalfinancialaccountingbusinessinvestmenttaxoranyprofessionaladviceforanyprospectiveinvestorsandshouldnotberelieduponinthatregardThisdocumentisforinformationalpurposesonlyandshouldnotbetreatedasanofferorsolicitationforthepurchaseorsaleofanyproductsinvestmentssecuritiestradingstrategiesorfinancialinstrumentsofanykindinanyjurisdictionCCBISmakesnorepresentationsontheavailabilityofthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentorrelatedinvestmenttotherecipientsThesecuritiesdescribedhereinmaynotbeeligibleforsaleinalljurisdictionsortocertaincategoriesofinvestorsNeitherCCBISnoranyotherpersonsacceptanyliabilitywhatsoeverforanylossordamageswhetherdirectindirectincidentalexemplarycompensatorypunitivespecialorconsequentialarisingfromanyuseofthisdocumentoritscontentsorotherwisearisinginconnectiontherewithSecuritiesfinancialinstrumentsorstrategiesmentionedhereinmaynotbesuitableforallinvestorsTheopinionsandrecommendationshereindonottakeintoaccountprospectiveinvestorsfinancialcircumstancesinvestmentobjectivesorparticularneedsandarenotintendedasrecommendationsofparticularsecuritiesfinancialinstrumentsorstrategiestoanyprospectiveinvestorsTherecipientsofthisdocumentshouldconsiderthisdocumentasonlyasinglefactorinmarkingtheirinvestmentdecisionandshallbesolelyresponsibleformakingtheirownindependentinvestigationofthebusinessfinancialconditionandprospectsofcompaniesreferredtointhisdocumentReadersarecautionedthatithepriceandvalueofsecuritiesreferredtointhisdocumentandtheincomederivedfromthemmayfluctuateiipastperformanceisnotaguidetofutureperformanceiiianyanalysisratingsandrecommendationsmadeinthisdocumentareintendedforlong-termatleastfor12monthsandisnotlinkedtoanear-termassessmentofthelikelyperformanceofthesecuritiesorcompaniesinquestionInanyeventfutureactualresultsmaydiffermateriallyfromthosesetforthinanyforward-lookingstatementshereinivfuturereturnsarenotguaranteedandalossoforiginalcapitalmayoccurandvfluctuationsinexchangeratesmayadverselyaffectthevaluepriceorincomeofanysecurityorrelatedinstrumentreferredtointhisdocumentItshouldbenotedthatthisdocumentcoversonlythosesecuritiesorcompaniesasspecifiedhereinanddoesnotextendtoanyderivativeinstrumentsthereofthevalueofwhichmaybeaffectedbymanyfactorsandmaynotcorrespondwiththevalueoftheunderlyingsecuritiesTradingintheseinstrumentsisconsideredriskyandarenotsuitableforallinvestorsWhileallreasonablecarehasbeentakentoensurethatthefactsstatedhereinareaccurateandthattheforward-lookingstatementsopinionsandexpectationscontainedhereinarebasedonfairandreasonableassumptionsCCBIShasnotbeenabletoverifyindependentlysuchfactsorassumptionsandCCBISshallnotbeliablefortheaccuracycompletenessorcorrectnessthereofandnorepresentationorwarrantyismadeexpressorimpliedinthisregardAllpricingreferredtointhisdocumentisasofthecloseoflocalmarketforthesecuritiesdiscussedunlessotherwisestatedandforinformationpurposesonlyThereisnorepresentationthatanytransactioncanorcouldhavebeeneffectedatthosepricesandanypricesdonotnecessarilyreflectCCBISinternalbooksandrecordsortheoreticalmodel-basedvaluationsandmaybebasedoncertainassumptionsDifferentassumptionscouldresultinsubstantiallydifferentresultsAnystatementswhichmaybecontainedhereinattributedtoathird-partyrepresentCCBISinterpretationofthedatainformationandoropinionsprovidedbythatthirdpartyeitherpubliclyorthroughasubscriptionserviceandsuchuseandinterpretationhavenotbeenreviewedorendorsedbythethirdpartyReproductionanddistributionofthesethirdpartycontentsinanyformisprohibitedexceptwiththepriorwrittenconsentofsuchthirdpartyTherecipientsmustmaketheirownassessmentsoftherelevanceaccuracyandadequacyoftheinformationcontainedinthisdocumentandmakesuchindependentinvestigationastheymayconsidernecessaryorappropriateforsuchpurposeRecipientsshouldseekindependentlegalfinancialaccountingbusinessinvestmentandortaxadviceiftheyhaveanydoubtaboutthecontentsofthisdocumentandsatisfythemselvespriortomakinganyinvestmentdecisionthatsuchinvestmentisinlinewiththeirowninvestmentobjectivesandhorizonsUseofhyperlinkstootherinternetsitesorresourcesifanyasreferredtointhisdocumentisatusersownriskTheyareprovidedsolelyforthepurposeofconvenienceandinformationandthecontentoftheseinternetsitesorresourcesdoesnotinanywayformpartofthisdocumentThecontentsaccuracyopinionexpressedandotherlinksprovidedatthesesitesarenotinvestigatedverifiedmonitoredorendorsedbyCCBISCCBISexpresslydisclaimsanyresponsibilityforanddoesnotguaranteerepresentandwarranteitherexpressorimpliedthecompletenessaccuracyappropriatenessavailabilityorsecurityofinformationfoundonthesewebsitesUsersofthesewebsitesaresolelyresponsibleformakingallenquiriesinvestigationandriskassessmentbeforeproceedingwithanyonlineorofflineaccessortransactionwithanyofthesethirdpartiesAllactivitiesconductedbyusersviaoratthesewebsitesareattheirownriskCCBISdoesnotguaranteethesecurityofanyinformationusersmayforwardorberequestedtoprovidetoanythirdpartiesviathesewebsitesUsersaredeemedtohaveirrevocablywaivedanyclaimsagainstCCBISforanylossordamagesufferedasaresultofanyaccesstoorinteractionwithanyofthesewebsitesUponrequestCCBISmayprovidespecializedresearchproductsorservicestocertaincustomersfocusingontheprospectsforspecificsecuritiesascomparedwithothercoveredsecuritiesovervaryingtimehorizonsorunderdifferingmarketconditionsWhiletheviewsexpressedinthesesituationsmaynotalwaysbedirectionallyconsistentwiththelong-termviewsexpressedintheanalystspublishedresearchCCBIShasproceduresinplacetopreventselectivedisclosureandwillupdatetherelevantreaderswhenourviewshaschangedCCBISalsohasproceduresinplacetoidentifyandmanagepotentialconflictsofinterestthatmayariseinconnectionwithitsresearchbusinessandservicesChineseWallproceduresarealsoinplacetoensurethatanyconfidentialandorpricesensitiveinformationisproperlyhandledCCBISwilluseitsbestendeavorstocomplywiththerelevantlawsandregulationsinthisrespectNeverthelesstherecipientsshouldbeawarethatCCBCCBIStheiraffiliatesandortheirCCBISECURITIES3STRATEGY17August2023officersdirectorsandemployeesmaydobusinesswiththeissuersofthesecuritiescoveredinthisdocumentincludinginvestmentbankingbusinessordirectinvestmentbusiness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