研究报告全文：27Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateNewHopeService3658HKBUYMaintainHighdividendgrowthstorytocontinueTargetPriceHK277PreviousTPHK441UpDownside762Doyoulike10dividendyieldwithcashmarketcapCompanyreportedCurrentPriceHK15722YoYearningsgrowthin2022inlinewithmarketexpectationItsurprisedChinaPMSectorthemarketthatthehigherdividendthatliftingpayoutratiofrom31to48in202210dividendyieldthathassupportedthesharepricestronglyCompanyJeffreyZengalsoconfirmedtomaintain50payoutratiogoingforwardsothatwouldmakeNewHopeServicesappealinginitshighdividendyieldof10Onthegrowth85239163727sidewelikethecompanydueto1itssolidimprovementinthird-partyjeffreyzengcmbicomhkexpansionswhichcontributed70ofnewmanagedGFAin2022vs59inMiaoZhang20212SuccessfulexplorationoncommunityVASretailandcateringbusiness85237618910grew110YoYandaccountedfor35ofsegmentrevenuein2022vs20inzhangmiaocmbicomhk2021Sothatwouldcontinuetoboostitsrevenuenetprofittogrowat3015CAGRWemaintainbuyandtheCompanyistradingatanattractiveat5x2023EBellaLiPEwithnetcashequivalenttoitsmarketcap85237576202bellalicmbicomhk2022Earningsin-lineCompanyreportednetprofit22YoYtoRMB203mninlinewithourexpectationGPMargineroded29pptYoYto379StockDatain2022duetoanincreaseintheproportionofbusinesswithrelativelylowerMktCapHKmn1278Avg3mthstoHKmn010GPMincludingthirdpartyPMmentionedaboveandretailcateringservices52wHighLowHK258070thatgrew110YoYandaccountedfor35ofsegmentrevenuein2022vsTotalIssuedSharesmn81420in2021Operatingcashflowsaw24YoYdecreasein2022asaccountSourceBloombergreceivablessurgedtoRMB325mnanincreaseofRMB135mnincludingShareholdingStructurecRMB65mnofnaturalbusinessgrowthandcRMB75mnfromacquiredGoldenRoseDevelopments6692companyMingYuGlobalwhichwereguaranteedtoberepaidbyitsNewVoyageDvlpLtd502undistributedprofitbeforeacquisitionNeptuneInvHlds376SourceHKExThird-partyexpansiondominatedGFAgrowthThetotalrevenuegrew23YoYtoRMB1139mnin2022mainlydrivenbyBasicPMsegment54YoYSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelativeandLifestyleServices20YoYThegrowthofBasicPMbusinesswas1-mth180186mainlysupportedby78YoYgrowthinmanagedGFAandstrongeffortsin3-mth8365independentthird-partyexpansionsandMANewmanagedGFAfromthird6-mth21796SourceBloombergpartyandMAaccountedfor70oftotalvs59in2021ThismakessegmentrevenuefromthirdpartiestripledtoRMB176mnin2022fromRMB12-mthPricePerformance42mnin2021andaccountedfor36ofsegmentrevenuevs13in2021Lifteddividendpayoutin2022andbeyondCompanyannouncedadividendofRMB012sharethatliftingpayoutratioto48in2022from31in2021representsadividendyieldof10ontheannouncementdayandboostedthesharepriceby12intwodaysaftertheannouncementvsHSIPMsector2-3Thecompanyconfirmedtomaintainpayoutratioabove50goingforwardMaintainBuyonattractivevaluationWeestimatethecompanytoSourceBloombergdeliver30CAGRonrevenuebutcut20-30ofourforecastonNPto15CAGRin2023-25EItsmainlybecausethatGPMarginisexpectedtoslightlyAuditorKPMGcontractto34fromthecurrent38WemaintainBuyandcutTPtoHK277using8x2023EPEmultiplepreviously10xinlinewithindustryaverageforsmallcapnamesItiscurrentlytradingatanattractive5x2023EPEwithnetcashequivalenttomarketcapRiskimpairmentriskfromaccountreceivablePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk27Mar2023EarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn9251139156021012731YoYgrowth572231370347300NetincomeRMBmn166203234268307EPSRMB023025029033038YoYgrowth21184151149144ConsensusEPSRMBNANANANANAPEx6157494337PBx1109080706Yield5085858585ROE174165151143149NetgearingNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE227Mar2023Figure1EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue15602101273118402662na-15-21naGrossProfit566732928690969na-18-25naOperatingProfit296340389351478na-16-29naNetprofit234268307290396na-20-32naEPSRMB029033038036049na-20-32naGrossMargin362348340375364na-12ppt-16pptnaOperatingMargin190162143191180na-01ppt-18pptnaNetMargin150128112158149na-08ppt-21pptnaSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimateFigure22022resultssummaryNewHopeServicesresultssummaryRMBmn20212022YoYRevenue925113923-Propertymanagementservices31748854-DeveloperVAS234229-2-Commercialoperations120118-2-LifestyleservicescommunityVAS25430320Grossprofit37743114Netprofit16620322CorenetprofitexListingexpenses1872039EPSRMB0230258DPSRMB00701268Dividendpayoutratio310481171pptGPMargin407379-29pptNetMargin17910-169pptManagedGFAmnsqm16228878ContractedGFAmnsqm26436137SourceCompanydataCMBIGMFigure3ValuationtableCompanyTickerCMBIratingTPLastpriceMktCapPENetprofitgrowthDividendYieldPayoutratioHKHKHKmn21A22E23E22E23E21A22E21AOnewo2602HKBUY60736242602-18414483358-13-CountryGardenServices6098HKBUY4761294351386846427250283024CRMixCLifestyle1209HKBUY56039590045447356272218319091238A-Living3319HKHOLD3427811033364538-1121520151228GreentownServices2869HKHOLD795016227172173137-119262402969EverSunshine1995HKHOLD1272951436758461782684454295PolyServices6049HKHOLD53442923738235195155193261091020S-Enjoy1755HKSELL85585010656648180275324921PowerlongCommercial9909HKBUY33259376768605070143516135ExcellenceCM6989HKBUY14935427169483633533810310471CentralChinaNewLife9983HKBUY1292836064346413311612015405Sino-OceanServices6677HKBUY7122262848453651217506802NewHopeServices3658HKBUY281612785232NA220150508529RedsunServices1971HKBUY9422913574232412322NANANAEvergrandeServices6666HKBUY1042324865794937219328NANANASunacServices1516HKBUY70329751524873-1618NA470024JinmaoServices816HKBUY5541366213880591020457NANANACOPH2669HKNRNA8929385298232181285284101330TimesNeighborhood9928HKNRNA07651174727-627746862415AoyuanHealthyLife3662HKNRNA191351482016413312NANANAShimaoServices873HKNRNA2255044015358-7331024NANANAKWGLiving3913HKNRNA142755343934-1341501067404JinkeSmartServices9666HKNRNA1217926629770-357202654240Average200189146842961921258SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE327Mar2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25EYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue9251139156021012731Profitbeforetax202266296340389PMservices31748874410471330DA133333DeveloperVAS234229241253265Changeinworkingcapital30295120154180Commercialoperations120118130143158Others944505866Lifestyleservicescommunity254303445658978Netcashfromoperating23670128131146CostVASofsales54870899513691802GrossProfit377431566732928Capex165555JVAssociates34566Otherincome17789Others1574566Sellingexpenses4481114Netcashfrominvesting1445555Administrativeexpenses173158234315410Impairment3152058106Equityraised648----Operatingprofit198247296340389Changeofdebts12----Others2458585858Financecost420---Netcashfromfinancing61358585858Pre-taxProfit202266296340389Netchangeincash99342116183183Incometax3644505866Cashatthebeginningofthe1131106114812641264PROFITFORTHEYEAR166222246282323Exchangeyeardifference-----Non-controllinginterest019121416Cashattheendoftheyear11061148126414471447NetProfit166203234268307CoreNetProfit187203234268307BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25EYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ENon-currentassets139376245248250SalesmixPropertyplantandequipment97105107110112PMservices343429477498487Others4327213813813825320115412097DeveloperVASCommercialoperations130104836858Currentassets13521579178821252305Lifestyleservices274266285313358Inventories00000Total10001000100010001000Tradereceivables189325445599779Cashandcashequivalents11061040126414471447ProfitlossratiosOthers57214797979Grossmargin407379362348340Netmargin17917815012811214911955203323732555180166170170170TotalassetsEffectivetaxrateCurrentliabilities469569413415418GrowthTradeandotherpayables64444Revenue572231370347300463565409411414523145312294269OthersGrossprofitOperatingprofit472245200149144Non-currentliabilities6877777777Netprofit511224151149144Deferredincometaxliabilities7161616166061616161OthersBalancesheetratiosCurrentratiox292843515553764649049249575104104104104TotalliabilitiesReceivableturnoverdaysEquitytoshareholders9531234154318812060ReturnsNon-controllinginterests176---ROE174165151143149TotalEquity9541309154318812060ROA111104115113120PershareEPSRMB023025029033038DPSRMB007012012012012BVPSRMB131151187217239SourceCompanyandCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE427Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5