研究报告全文：24Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateBaozunBZUNUSBUYMaintainReorganizingtocaptureLTopportunitiesTargetPriceUS84PreviousTPUS84UpDownside527Baozundeliveredmixed4Q22resultsonsoftelectronicsItrestructuredintothreeCurrentPriceUS55bizlinestocaptureecommercerecoveryandLTopportunitiesLookinginto2023weexpectBECrevtogrow7YoYwithstrongsportsluxurytooffsetChinaInternetSectorelectronicssoftnessAfterconsolidatingGAPShanghaigrouprevwouldgrow25YoYinFY23Ewithnon-GAAPOPatRMB11mninwhichBECNon-GAAPSophieHuangOPatRMB263mnLeveragingitsstrongbrandmgmtcapabilityandomni-85239000889channeladvantagewethinkBZUNiswell-positionedtobenefitfromChinassophiehuangcmbicomhkreopeningandmoresynergieswithMAandoverseasopportunitiesTofactorinGAPconsolidationweliftedrevby19-21inFY23-34Ebuttrimmednon-EasonXuGAAPOPMby3-4pptsOurTPwasunchangedatUS84implying11xFY2385239000849EVEBITofBECeasonxucmbicomhk4Q22slightlymissed4Q22GMV-17YoYnon-distributionGMV0StockDataYoYdistributionGMV-372YoYRev-195YoY6belowconsensusMktCapUSmn338Avg3mthstoUSmn512inwhichproductsalesServices-372-83YoYBycategoryAppliances52wHighLowUS1209341andElectronicsdraggedrevgrowthwith-37-76YoYforsoftTotalIssuedSharesmn54consumptionsentimentandFoxconnissuewhileresilientFMCGandLuxurySourceBloomberggrewat3027YoYNon-GAAPOPwasRMB183mnslightlybelowconsensusofRMB193mnAdjnetprofitofRMB138mnmissedconsensusatShareholdingStructureRMB185mnonunrealizedinvestmentlossandFXTIAA430Schroders363ReorganizingtocapturerecoveryandoverseasopportunityBaozunMorganStanley296restructuredintothreebizlinesincludingcoree-commercebusinessBECSourceBloombergbrandmanagementBBMandinternationalbusinessBZIWeexpectcoreecommercetoseesingledigitYoYgrowthinFY23EwithstrongsportsSharePerformanceluxurytooffsetsoftelectronicsMarketfocusliesonthepotentialstabilizationAbsoluteRelativeofseveraltopelectronicsbrandsBaozunhasenhancedoperation1-mth--103-131marketingwiththosebrandsegSKUsselectionandco-brandingimproving3-mth51-51theirperformancegraduallyBaozuniswell-positionedtocaptureinternational6-mth-137-183opportunitieswithMAeginvestmentinBrandLifestyleandcooperationSourceBloombergalthoughBZIrevcontributionmaynotbemeaningfulinthenextthreeyears12-mthPricePerformanceGAPconsolidationtoboosttoplinedespiteSTmargindilutionGAPUSBZUNUSCCMPrebasedShanghaiwasconsolidatedtoBZUNfrom1FebwhileGAPTaiwanyetto14comeinWeexpectGAPtocontributerevofRMB15bninFY23EwithOPof12-RMB252mnthusresultinginslightlypositivenon-GAAPOPofgroupWe10seehighvisibilityforBZUNtoempowerGAPwithstrongbrandmgmtcapabilityandomni-channeladvantageboostingorganicgrowthand8improvingmargin64MaintainBUYTofactorinGAPconsolidationweadjustedrevby19-21in2FY23-34Ebuttrimmednon-GAAPOPMby3-4pptsOurTPwasunchanged0atUS84implying11xFY23EVEBITofBECor13xFY24EPEMar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22EarningsSummarySourceBloombergYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn93968401104721148312351AuditorDeloitteYoYgrowth62112479776AdjnetincomeRMBmn20013282276617AdjEPSRMB2721134395YoYgrowth6822NANA1219ConsensusEPSRMBNANA416895PEx137174NA8739PSx0908070606ROE3324154893NetgearingNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOANDhttpwwwcmbicomhk24Mar2023Figure14Q22financialreviewRMBmn1Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22QoQYoYConsensusDiffRevenue2020230418993173198421221741255347-202706-57Operatingprofit53107157441232618246350193-907Netprofit180293812278157284NANA110NAAdjnetprofit611518876111313811083185-251EPSRMB082201121111002002022232109110308-246MarginGrossmargin593646686671700716762748706Operatingmargin2646-8201-21-11-150771Adjnetmargin3065-46240101-085468GrowthRevenueYoY3267138-52-18-79-83-195RevenueQoQ-396140-176671-37569-179466Operatingprofit3134-336NA-987-1778NANA22Adjnetprofit135529NA-721-981-992NA62SourceCompanydataBloombergFigure24Q22revenuebreakdown1Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22QoQYoYRevenueRMBmn20202304189931731984212217412553466-195Productcsales9729727001230681694497772554-372Services10491332119919431303142812441781431-831Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22QoQYoYRevenueRMBmn2020230418993173198421221741255347-20Onlinestoreoperations132513291040175910731064845128752-27Appliances38250137361435837221938776-37Apparelandaccessories250242208364265244234367571Sportswear1189978121888480122510Others757254139103676111385-19Luxury5771761057493931334327Electronics240227na252151109na61NA-76Homeandfurnishing768410FMCGnana7762NANA9281-1230Beautyandcosmetics88128941229010310093-7-24Others3662322882692092351992158-20Warehouseandfulfillment41851152886452561149275353-13DigitalmarketingandITsolutions27746433055038644740451427-7SourceCompanydataFigure3CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnDec-YEFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue1047211483123518902976010448176177182Grossprofit764486129449659372547963159187187NonGAAPOP11441866340506723-967-129199Adjnetprofit82276617257442945NA-375-347EPSRMB128428950413677947NA-36804Grossmargin730750765741743762-11ppts07ppts03pptsOperatingmargin013870385269-37ppts-13ppts01pptsNetmargin-082450294590-37ppts-21ppts-40pptsSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE224Mar2023Figure4EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnDec-YEFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue10472114831235186299628NA214193NAGrossprofit76448612944966357683NA152121NANonGAAPOP11441866327670NA-965-342NAAdjnetprofit82276617229506NANA-454NAEPSRMB128428950284623NANA-312NAGrossmargin730750765769798NA-39ppts-48pptsNAOperatingmargin0138703870NA-37ppts-31pptsNANetmargin-0824502753NA-34ppts-29pptsNASourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure5ValuationcompsCompanyTickerMktcapCurrencyPriceCMBICMBIPEPSFY23-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--150016051669Others71236185165205COGS32772256282728712903OperatingCF15511285543331661Grossprofit61206145764486129449Capex114121128136144Fulfilment26612720387241164386Purchaseofinvestments-----SM25502674300032153335Others4553495050RD448428555586593InvestingCF159173177186194AdminExp526371471494506Othergains73821056962Equityraised-----Operatingprofit733149271691Changeofdebts548----CashfromCBraised-----Otherincomenet161614796364Others201----Pre-taxIncome154580228208627FinancingCF749----IncomeTax55264642125Netchangeincash13921458366146467Netprofit220653182166501Cashbegofyr37315170367940454190Adjnetprofit20013282276617FX4632---Cashendofyr51703679404541904657BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25EYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ENon-currentassets13401352135013361308SalesmixPropertyandequipment467499527551569Productsales412315215200189Right-of-useassets525525525525525Services588685642661676Intangibleassets13411384460Others0000143140135Others215215215215215Total10001000100010001000Currentassets9975828510080953711355GrowthrateCashrestrictedcash51703679404541904710Revenue621062479776Short-terminvestments14491449144914491449Grossprofit1080424412797Accountsreceivable19631749287821963261EBIT9873741NANA1552Inventories6398079969811208Adjnetprofit627338NANA1233Prepaymentsandother755601713721727currentassetsPLratiosCurrentliabilities30981887370328093922Operatingmargin0104142456Accountspayables12173715345391557Pre-taxmargin1669221851Otherpayablesand16711640195920602155Adjnetmargin2116082450accrualsShort-termloan-----Effectivetaxrate35946200200200Others210210210210210ReturnsNon-currentliabilities21362136213621362136ROE3324154796Long-termloan17631763176317631763ROA1814072549Deferredtaxliability33333Long-termoperating370370370370370PershareleaseliabilitiesEPSRMB0907-041432MI4588888889DPSRMB0000000000TotalEquity60825614559259286430BVPSRMB277306291306330Shareholdersequity60365525550458406341SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE424Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5