研究报告全文：wwMN24Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateAACTech2018HKJ4Q22slightlybelowrecoveryremainsbumpyTargetPriceHK1558AACs4Q22netprofit12YoYwas56belowourconsensusestimatesPreviousTPHK154mainlyduetowideninglossfromopticssegmentwhilerevenueexceededUpDownside78expectationswith21YoYgrowthgivenstrongercameramodulesinourviewCurrentPriceHK16904QGPMcameinat166wellbelowexpectationsduetoimpairmentofopticssegmentBysegmentacousticsopticsEMDPMSensorrevenuegrew6ChinaTechnology562850YoYMgmtreiteratedconfidencetoimproveprofitabilityandAlexNGefficiencyinFY23EwithcostcontrolandlowerCAPEXOverallwebelieve85239000881ongoingsmartphonedemandweaknessandloss-makingopticssegmentwillalexngcmbicomhkcontinuetodragearningsrecoveryintheneartermThestocknowtradesat151xFY23EPEwhichisfairgivenearningsuncertaintiesinourviewMaintainClaudiaLIUclaudialiucmbicomhkHoldwithnewSOTP-basedTPofHK1558implying141xFY23EPE4Q22slightlymissedonwideninglossinopticsbusinessBysegmentStockDataMktCapHKmn2024624Q22acousticsgrew63YoYonstrongsalesfromoverseascustomersandAvg3mthstoHKmn186sharegainOpticsrevenuegrew556YoYtoRMB798mnwithboostinHCM52wHighLowHK22301114shipment122YoYbutopticsGPMfurtherdroppedto-515withwideningTotalIssuedSharesmn11980SourceFactSetlossandimpairmentMgmtbelievesacceleratedinventorydestockingandbetterproductmixin2H23EwilldriveopticsGPMASPEMPMrevenuegrewShareholdingStructure28YoYtoRMB229bnandGPMimprovedto22225pptsYoY07pptsWuChunyuan219195QoQthankstosharegainofAndroidx-axishapticsandhighershipmentofhigh-PanZhengminSourceHKExvaluemetalcasingproductstokeysmartphoneNBcustomersSharePerformanceMoreupdatesondiversificationstrategyinautomotiveandARVRAACAbsoluteRelativeguidedmeaningfulgrowthinautomotiveacousticsinFY23Egivenmultiple1-mth-56-163-mth-13-08projectsRMB1bninprogresswithleadingChinaEVandtier-oneclientsAs6-mth267174forARVRAACsx-axishapticsmotorwondesign-inprojectswithaleadingSourceFactSetglobalVRplayerHowevergivenchallengingconsumerdemandmgmt12-mthPricePerformanceexpectedCAPEXtodrop10-15YoYinFY23EfromRMB185bninFY22Worstislikelyoverbutvaluationisfairat143xFY23EPEWhilewearepositiveonAACsrecentacquisitionsandacceleratedtransitionintonon-handsetbusinesseswebelievethemajoroverhangremainstheloss-makingopticssegmentgivensmartphoneweaknesslackofspecupgradeandlowcapacityutilizationOurnewSOTP-basedTPHK1558implied141xFY23EPETradingat151xFY23EPEthestockisfairlyvaluedgivenslowerSourceFactSetrecoveryandearningsuncertaintiesinourviewEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn1766720625213932241823398YoYgrowth31167374844NetprofitRMBmn131638213117901311813756YoYgrowth12637643611349EPSReportedRMB109069098109115YoYgrowth12637143611349ConsensusEPSRMBnana095125032PEx324223151136129PBx0808080808Yield3508323537ROE5937535860SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk24Mar20234Q22ResultsReviewFigure14Q22resultsreviewRMBmnCMBIConsensus4Q213Q224Q22QoQYoY4Q22EDiff4Q22EDiffRevenue4812537358409215579554507GrossProfit9861022970-5-21081-101080-10OperatingProfit261218102-53-61255-60298-66Netprofit212234237212250-5247-4018020020112021-5021-6EPSRMBMarginGrossMargin205190166-24ppt-39ppt214-48ppt198-32pptOperatingMargin544118-23ppt-37ppt59-41ppt55-37ppt444441-03ppt-03ppt49-08ppt45-05pptNetMarginGrowth127211613RevenueYoY11192941RevenueQoQ-58-9-61-214OperatingprofitYoYNetprofitYoY-7228121816SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMFigure2RevenuebreakdownRMBmnFY211Q222Q223Q224Q22FY22FY23EFY24ERevenueDynamiccomponents85822230190923202389884889059238MEMScomponents1013237241421357125615081809HapticsRF56391501143120502295727676878133Optics2389924929567798321732663210PlasticsLens139918421015817672810001014HCMWLG990740719409622248922662196Others4346152272727Total176674896451653735840206252139322418RevenuemixDynamiccomponents4946424341434241MEMScomponents65586678HapticsRF3231323839353636Optics1419211114161514Others00000000YoYGrowthDynamiccomponents146-656314MEMScomponents-6-1616650242020HapticsRF-18221747282966Optics4636154456352-2Others174-65-44469-87-3800Total314527211745GrossprofitmarginDynamiccomponents297266270269317281273270MEMScomponents15114115074127116116116HapticsRF216196188215238213197196Optics1723545-140-515-1305764Total247195183190166183202201SourceCompanydataCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE224Mar2023Keytakeawaysfromanalystcall4Q22Review4Q22revenueRMB584bn214YoYGPM166-39pptsYoYNetprofitRMB237mn120YoYRevenuegrowthmainlydrivenbycontributionfromtheoverseascustomersandtheincreaseincombinedrevenueofEMDPMaswellasopticssegmentLowerGPMattributedtolargerrevenuecontributionoflowermarginbusinessOptics4Q22revenueRMB798mn556YoY408QoQAnnualHCMShipmentincreased1215YoYDOI4-5monthsOISproductstartedasmallscaleproductionStrategicfocusonWLGhybridlens1G5Pand1G6PMPwithlowerthanoriginaltargetedshipmentvolumeIncreasingverticalintegrationwithfocusoncameramoduleandVCMbusinessandaimingatsharegainonmid-to-highendproductsAcoustics4Q22revenueRMB238bn63YoYGPM31244pptsYoYmainlydrivenbystrongsalesfromtheoverseascustomerswithenhancedshareAutomotiveacousticsolutionsstartedMPandshipmentEMDPM4Q22revenueRMB229bn275YoY115QoQGPM22225pptsYoY07pptsQoQMarketshareofAndroidx-axishapticsfurtherincreasedanddrovetheshipmentgrowthby419YoYX-axishapticsmotorhasbeendesignedforaleadingglobalVRplayerPMmetalcasingbusinesshasgainedleadingmarketshareinhigh-endsmartphoneapplicationswithkeycustomersAimingtofurtherexpandmetalcasingbusinesswithhigh-valueproductportfoliotoenhanceprofitabilityMEMS4Q22revenueRMB356mn495YoYGPM13914pptsYoY66pptsQoQmainlyduetostrongdemandfromtheoverseascustomersandincreasedmarketpenetrationofAndroidMEMSproductsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE324Mar2023EarningsRevisionFigure3CMBIGMearningsrevisionsNewOldChangeRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue2139322418233982090921744na23naGrossProfit43184511469641504363na43naOperatingProfit10831144118211981249na-10-8naNetprofit11791312137611891299na-11naEPSRMB098109115098108na02naGrossMargin202201200198200na03ppt01pptnaOperatingMargin5151505757na-07ppt-06pptnaNetMargin5559595760na-02ppt-01pptnaSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure4CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue213932241823398223122464928167-4-9-17GrossProfit431845114696451851715710-4-13-18OperatingProfit108311441182136217321850-20-34-36Netprofit1179131213761143148716123-12-15EPSRMB0981091150951251603-12-28GrossMargin202201200202210203-01ppt-09ppt-02pptOperatingMargin515150617066-1ppt-19ppt-15pptNetMargin55595951605704ppt-02ppt02pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure5PLforecastRMBmnFY211Q222Q223Q224Q22FY22FY23EFY24ERevenue176674896451653735840206252139322418YoY31141462652141673748Costofsales133023939369043514870168501707917911Grossprofit43659578261022970377543144506GPM247195183190166183202201-23460-16-13514345YoY33-284SGA1156331329397426148315401592ofrev-65-68-73-74-73-72-72-71RD1726387341377442154616901771ofrev-98-79-75-70-76-75-79-79Operatingprofit148323918521810274510831144OPM8449414118365151YoY98-626-459-88-608-49745356IncomeTax120548980923119817750329555269180150EffectiveTaxRate85216Netprofit131620514523423782111791312NPM7542324441405559YoY-126-614-628275120-376436113SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE424Mar2023ValuationMaintainHOLDwithnewTPHK1558WederivedournewTPofHK1558basedonSOTPtoreflectbusinessdiversificationwithdifferentgrowthprofilesandvisibilityOurTPimpliesaweighted-averagetargetPEmultipleof141xFY23EPEWeassign15xPEtoAACsacoustics10xPEtoMEMS13xPEtohapticsmechanicalRFand15xPEtoopticsin-linewithHK-listedpeersFigure6AACTechSOTPvaluationValueperValuationofFY23EFY23EEPSBusinesssegmentTargetPEshareRMBMethodologyProfitRMBAcoustics832PEtargetmultiple15x56055MEMS040PEtargetmultiple10x4004EDPM450PEtargetmultiple13x35035Optics065PEtargetmultiple15x4004TPRMB1387141x098TPHK1558SourcesCompanydataCMBIGMFigure712MforwardPEbandFigure812MforwardPBbandxx65125510458356254152051-yrForwardPEMeanMean1SDMean-1SD1-yrForwardPBMeanMean1SDMean-1SDSourceCompanydataCMBIGMSourceCompanydataCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE524Mar2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue171401766720625213932241823398Costofgoodssold129131330216850170791791118707Grossprofit422743653775431445064691Sellingexpense285333448471493515Adminexpense6728241036107010981147RDexpense192017261546169017711848Operatingprofit13501483745108311441182Otherincome502345525428448468Otherexpense000000GainlossonfinancialassetsatFVTPL000000Investmentgainloss000000ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV011111NetInterestincomeexpense353415403403403403Foreignexchangegainloss14816666Otherincomeexpense000000Others000000Pre-taxprofit16481413861110111821240Incometax147120231198177186Aftertaxprofit1501129362990310051054Minorityinterest623192276307322Netprofit15071316821117913121376BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets168501795517116205612082925976Cashequivalents7540605168148752864613135Accountreceivables517660135531882270709527Inventories399556954401261747442944STbankdeposits922341341341341FinancialassetsatFVTPL000000Othercurrentassets4619328282828Non-currentassets220622406723227222062045118071PPE185921998719302182811652514145Deferredincometax95211228228228228InvestmentinJVsassos043333Intangibles373384564564564564Goodwill164220275275275275FinancialassetsatFVTPL050186186186186Othernon-currentassets283732102668266826682668Totalassets389114202240343427674127944046Currentliabilities93809668905511165932811729Short-termborrowings334929021833183318331833Accountpayables520561484959698751417533Taxpayable167165118200209218Othercurrentliabilities1511881823182318231823Leaseliabilities494242292292292292Contractliabilities152230303030Non-currentliabilities771198529093909390939093Long-termborrowings25433301727172717271727Bondpayables251265736088608860886088Obligationsunderfinanceleases317452485485485485Othernon-currentliabilities23392497793793793793Totalliabilities170901952018148202581842120822Sharecapital989898989898Otherreserves210612171321559221482280423492Totalshareholdersequity218212250222196225092285823224Minorityinterest66269153926443365Totalequityandliabilities389114202240343427674127944046PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE624Mar2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation16481413861110111821240Depreciationamortization270143634147441300Taxpaid262217279116168177Changeinworkingcapital78952857952122201734Others295283593613748165041Netcashfromoperations359321964372605636107838InvestingCapitalexpenditure208811763678312626572258Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments08600000Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term000000investmentsOthers117422111328000Netcashfrominvesting326242462349312626572258FinancingDividendpaid107403144590656688Netborrowings35626530000Sharerepurchases107403144590656688Others243940721151186253285Netcashfromfinancing2582613143999310591091NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear481475406051681487528646Exchangedifference187520000Cashattheendoftheyear7540605168148752864613135GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue4231167374844Grossprofit172331351434541Operatingprofit454984974535633Netprofit32212637643611349PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin247247183202201200Operatingmargin798436515150ReturnonequityROE735937535860GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecCurrentratiox181919182222Receivableturnoverdays878878900900900900Inventoryturnoverdays886886750750750750Payableturnoverdays847847700700700700VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE342324223151136129PEdiluted342324223151136129PB000000000000Divyield14611544786331536883868SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE724Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE8