研究报告全文：MN23Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateCSPCPharmaceutical1093HKmRNAplatformverifiedwithproductapprovalCSPCreportedFY22revenueofRMB3094bn110YoYandattributablenetTargetPriceHK1211profitofRMB609bn87YoYinlinewithourestimatesofRMB3135bnPreviousTPHK1352revenueandRMB599bnnetprofitrespectivelyTheFY22salesoffinishedUpDownside450drugsincreased81YoYtoRMB2268bnmainlydrivenbythesteadysalesCurrentPriceHK764performanceofnervoussystemdiseasedrugsandstronggrowthofanti-infectivedrugsBulkproductsalesdelivered238YoYgrowthtoRMB642bninFY22ChinaHealthcarethankstotheincreaseoffunctionalfoodotherbusiness439YoYdrivenJillWUCFAbythegrowthofcaffeineproductsinbothsalesvolumeandaveragesellingprice85239000842jillwucmbicomhkMeanwhilethevitaminCandantibioticsbusinessesalsorecordedsatisfactoryrevenuegrowthinFY22177and151respectivelyThegrossprofitAndyWANGmargindecreasedby39from758inFY21to719inFY22mainly85236576288attributabletothechangeinrevenuemixanddeclineinsellingpricesofvitaminandywangcmbicomhkCproductsin2022InFY22CSPCwasabletoachievemultipleBDdealsincludingtheacquisitionof51interestinRecomgeninFebandthein-licensingStockDataMktCapHKmn91528ofbatoclimabHBM9161fromHarbourinOctImportantlyCSPCout-licensedAvg3mthstoHKmn34570SYSA1801Claudin182ADCtoElevationinJul2022andSYS6002Nectin-452wHighLowHK1036695ADCtoCorbusinJan2023whichendorseCSPCsinternalRDcapabilitiesTotalIssuedSharesmn11933SourceFactSetmRNAvaccineplatformverifiedwiththeEUAapprovalofSYS6006forCOVID-19On22MarCSPCannouncedthatNMPAapprovedtheShareholdingStructureMassiveGiantGroupLtd102CompanysCOVID-19mRNAvaccineSYS6006foremergencyuseInaCaiDongchen98heterologousboosterstudyduringthepandemic202212-202301withSourceBloomberg4000participantsusingarecombinantproteinvaccineascontrolSYS6006SharePerformancedemonstratedefficacyof853in14to28daysafterboostervaccinationAbsoluteRelativeWiththeadvantageofCSPCslarge-scaleproductioncapacity15bndoses1-mth-2517yearandthecapabilitytoscaleupeasilySYS6006isabletomeetthe3-mth0712ongoingdemandforCOVID-19vaccinesonceCOVID-19outbreakinChina6-mth17488SYS6006isthefirstindependentlydevelopedmRNAvaccineinChinathatSourceFactSethasbeengrantedEUAwhichhighlightsCSPCsRDcapabilitiesofthe12-mthPricePerformancenucleicacidplatformCSPCisactivelypromotingthedevelopmentofotherHK1093HKHSIrebasedproductsonthemRNAplatformincludingvaccinesforrabiesRSVVZV1210Newproductstorampupquicklywhileoldproductsremainsteady8ThenewNRDLrenewalpriceofNBPwasimplementedinMar2023while6theincreaseinaccessibilitywilloffsettheimpactofthepricecutofthe4productWeexpectthesalesofNBPDuomeisuJinyouliKeailiand2Xuanningtobestablein2023Howeverweexpectremarkablesales0growthoftheCompanysnewproductsthisyearincludingMingfuleMar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23DuoendaAnfulikeeveniftheyareattheearlystageofsalesramp-upSourceFactSetMaintainBUYWeexpectCSPCsrevenuetogrow9698YoYinFY23E24Eandattributablenetprofittogrow60100YoYinFY23E24EWerevisedourDCF-basedTPtoHK1211fromHK1352WACC1178Terminalgrowth30EarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn2786730937338953721040913YoYgrowth1171109698100NetprofitRMBmn5688162321660357284384921YoYgrowth889660103166EPSReportedRMB047051054060070ConsensusEPSRMBnana056062003PEx168142136123105Netgearing409441516578637SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk23Mar2023Figure1CMBIGMearningsrevisionsNewOldDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue3389537210409133503239276NA-32-53NAGrossprofit2423526419286392487327886NA-26-53NAOperatingprofit801388341028684609662NA-53-86NANetprofit64557120830068847858NA-62-94NAEPSRMB054060070058066NA-62-94NAGrossmargin71507100700071007100NA05ppt0pptNAOperatingmargin23642374251424152460NA-051ppt-086pptNANetmargin19041913202919652001NA-061ppt-087pptNASourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIConsensusDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue338953721040913344713733339616-17-0333Grossprofit242352641928639250982738029116-34-35-16Operatingprofit80138834102868282918210212-32-3807Attributablenetprofit645571208300667273837898-33-3651EPSRMB054060070056062066-34-3052Grossmargin715071007000728173347350-131ppt-234ppt-349pptOperatingmargin236423742514240324592578-039ppt-085ppt-064pptNetmargin190419132029193619781994-031ppt-064ppt035pptSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure3Risk-adjustedDCFvaluationDCFValuationinRMBmn2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032EEBIT80138834989410982120801316714221152161612916936Taxrate1781178117811781178117811781178117811781EBIT1-taxrate658672618132902699291082311688125071325713920DA8648649591055115012421328140814791538-Changeinworkingcapital-141-139-154-169-184-199-213-226-237-247-Capx-800-800-800-800-800-800-800-800-800-800FCFF6509718681379112100941106512004128891369814411Terminalvalue169153Terminalgrowthrate300WACC1178CostofEquity1500CostofDebt500EquityBeta100RiskFreeRate300MarketRiskPremium1200TargetDebttoAssetratio3000EffectiveCorporateTaxRate1500TerminalvalueRMBmn55569TotalPVRMBmn110828NetdebtRMBmn-17897MinorityinterestsRMBmn1581EquityvalueRMBmn127144ofsharesmn11933DCFpershareinHK1211SourceCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE223Mar2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue249422786730937338953721040913Costofgoodssold62576732868096601079112274Grossprofit186852113522256242352641928639Sellingexpense93781044310337111851246513624Adminexpense94610101173122013021350RDexpense289034333987440644654091Others585546815590648712Operatingprofit6057679575748013883410286GainlossonfinancialassetsatFVTPL000000ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV3476033606060NetInterestincomeexpense12825393114Pre-taxprofit6391684775828034886310332Incometax116211591350143115781840Minorityinterest6983141149164192Netprofit522956886232660472848492Grossdividends152816911827193621362490Netdividends3999610naBALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets159212033723957294353552542778Cashequivalents7259928410298147771973925666Accountreceivables288338904631507455706125Inventories186124802555284331763612Prepayment000000STbankdeposits153514433575357535753575Othercurrentassets238232402898316634663801Non-currentassets141491440517813177491768517621PPE777085299582968297819881Deferredincometax11743113113113113Intangibles5094681908188318571832Goodwill11641035139512571119981FinancialassetsatFVTPL187719792126212621262126Othernon-currentassets271123512689268926892689Totalassets300703474241770471835321060400Currentliabilities63027226895897171060811808Short-termborrowings9901535445144Accountpayables475961626864763885329705Taxpayable379261262262262262Othercurrentliabilities10658031679176318591985Non-currentliabilities6676871170117011701170Long-termborrowings000000Othernon-currentliabilities6676871170117011701170Totalliabilities6969791310128108871177812978Sharecapital108991089910899108991089910899Otherreserves114331508719298238162880034611Totalshareholdersequity223322598730198347163970045510Minorityinterest7698421444158117331912Totalequityandliabilities300703474241770471835321060400PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE323Mar2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022E2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation6391684775828034886310332Depreciationamortization809865864864864864Taxpaid106111411350143115781840Changeinworkingcapital16801388105914113927Others10795470000Netcashfromoperations674046378155732680099329InvestingCapitalexpenditure135614105200800800800Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments000000Others7737730000Netcashfrominvesting21306375200800800800FinancingDividendpaid152816911827193621362490Netborrowings16900000Proceedsfromshareissues000000Sharerepurchases02640000Others112242112112112112Netcashfromfinancing147121971939204822472602NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear411872599284102981477719739Exchangedifference220000Others000000Cashattheendoftheyear7259906010299147771973925666GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue1281171109698100Grossprofit17413153899084Operatingprofit31712211558102164Netprofit401889660103166PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin749758719715710700Operatingmargin243244245236237251ReturnonequityROE256235222203196199GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx040404050606Currentratiox252827303336Receivableturnoverdays734929877877877877Inventoryturnoverdays108613451074107410741074Payableturnoverdays294535243196319631963196VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE184168142136123105PEdiluted184168142136123105PB413527242118PCFPS14120310611910994Divyield161821222428SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE423Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5