研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary23Mar2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报Marketswereoveralltwo-waybalancedthismorningAsianIGwidened2-3bpsbymid-dayBankT2wereunderbetterbuyingandHRINTHsGlennKoCFA高志和reboundedc05ptafteryesterdaysdropForAT1SOEperpandLGFVwe85236576235sawbuyerstendedtobuy2425dueorcallablebondstolockhighyieldglennkocmbicomhkEVERREAnnouncedlong-awaitedproposedoffshoredebtrestructuringplanSeebelowCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩HRINTHMoodysreviewedHuarongAMCsratingsfordowngradeasits85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkhugelossinFY22reflectstheweaknessofriskmanagementHRINTHsmoved-075to05ptthismorningJerryWang王世超Tradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点85237618919jerrywangcmbicomhkYesterdayAsiaIGspacewasrelativelyfirmdespiteUST10yyieldsopened125bpswiderLow-betaKoreanpaperssuchasKHFCKDBwasunderbetterbuyingOntheprimarysideKOROILannouncedthemulti-tranche3Y5Y10YUSDbondmandateChinaTMTsandHAOHUAperformedwellBenchmarknamessuchasBABATENCNTgrinded3-5bpstighterHighbetatechnameslikeLENOVO32sinitiallytightened20bpstoT310thenretracedtoT320stillendedat10bpstighterthanthelastcloseHAOHUAstightened3-8bpsacrossthecurveInfinancialsAMCsnotablyunderperformedMoodysplacedtheBaa2long-termratingofChinaHuarongAMCunderreviewfordowngradefollowingthecompanyannouncedprofitwarningHRINTHcurvewastraded2-4ptslowerincashpricesor70-100bpswiderposttheheadlineOtherAMCpeerswererelativelycalmasflowsweremorefocusedonHRINTHcurveOntheotherhandHKT2nameBNKEA27wassqueezed15bpstighterWhilstChinaT2swerestilltradedheavyandICBCAScurvewidened5-10bpsFlowsremainedbettersellingonfront-endT2papersfor23s-28sInIGpropertiesLNGFORsDALWANsCHJMAOswidened5-20bpsChinaHYpropertyspacewasalsoatouchweakerCSCHCNsdropped1-25ptsCOGARDsFUTLANsFTLNHDsROADKGsdrifted05-175ptslowerCENCHIGRNLGR23-25sweremarkeddown15-3ptsIndustrialsFOSUNIswereup05-125ptsMacaugamingnamesSANLTDsSTDCTYsWYNMACsweretradedupanother05-2ptsInIndianspaceVEDLNsweremarked1-25ptshigherRenewablessuchasGRNKENsRPVINsclimbedanother05-2ptsIndonesiannamesLMRTSPswerequoted05-1ptlowerIntheAsiaAT1PerpLGFVspacethemarketfinallymanagedtotakeabreatherfromrecentvolatilitiesandsentimentwaslargelyconstructiveaheadofFOMConWednightInAT1sHSBC8PerpwerestableCINDBKperpswereunderbetterbuyingBCHINAICBCASwereindicated025pthigherThaiSGnamesgainedanother05-1ptdrivenbyamixturePLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk123Mar2023shortsqueezingandPBdemandElsewhereinChinesespacewesawclientsfocusedonpickingupfront-endpapersofBOCHKLCIMWLBThe2324papersacrossLGFVsandSOEHKPerpswerealsobetterbuyingasinvestorssoughttolockupyieldsfortheremainingoftheyearinanticipationofthisratehikecyclecomingtoanendaftertheMarchFOMCLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeJSTLIN50504053281022HRINTH378111329665-31WYNMAC55808262884216CENCHI714042423407-30RPVIN41207142882116GRNLGR618042225433-30SANLTD28503082981015CENCHI79110723279-27SANLTD5908082893215HRINTH412052929710-26MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketsretreatedyesterdaySP-165Dow-163andNasdaq-160openedstablythenturnedtodownafterFedliftedinterestrateby25bpsonFOMCmeetingTheFedchairmanreiteratedtocontrolinflationrateat2andsaidtoensurethestabilityofbanksystemTheUStreasuryyieldsoveralldownyesterdaythe251030yieldsreached396354348368respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点EVERREAnnouncedlong-awaitedproposedoffshoredebtrestructuringplanChinaEvergrandeannouncedtheproposedoffshoredebtrestructuringplanforitsUSD139bnseniorsecurednotesandUSD52bnseniornoteswithguaranteethroughschemesofarrangementyesterdayFortheGroupCEGSchemeClassAandCcreditorsareentitledtoelectoneofthetwooptionsOption1ispuredebtthatwillhaveatenorof10-12yearsForOption2ClassACcreditorscanconvertitsentitlementintoA2C2NotesandorA2C2equity-linkedinstrumentspackagelinkingtothelistedsharesofEvergrandePropertyServicesEVPSEvergrandeNewEnergyVehiclesNEVortheCompanyForcreditorswhodonotmaketheirelectionsbeforetherelevantdeadlinedefaultoptionisOption1ForSceneryJourneySJSchemecreditorswillreceive5tranchesofnewnoteswithtenorof4-8yearsinanaggregateprincipalamountequaltoUSD6500mnForTianjiTJSchemecreditorswillreceive4tranchesofnewnoteswithtenorof5-8yearsinanaggregateprincipalamountequaltoUSD800mnInadditiona025consentfeewillbepaidinPIKnewnotestotheCEGSchemeandtheTJSchemeeligiblecreditorsTherestructuringeffectivedateisexpectedtobe1Octandthelongstopdateis15DecMeanwhileitestimatedtherecoveryratetounsecuredoffshorecreditorswillbe205-934iftheproposedrestructuringisunsuccessfulDetailsofproposedtermsaresummarizedbelowFurthermorethecompanyexpectstohaveadditionalfinancingofRMB250-300bninnextthreeyearstoensureprojectdeliveryThecashflowgeneratedfromexistingprojectswillbemainlyusedtorepaynewfinancingobtainedtocontinuetheconstructionTheabilitytorepayunsecureddebtatthecompanylevelandthereforerelativelyweak223Mar2023OutstandingUSDmnNewnotestobeissuedUSDmnChinaEvergrandeGroupCEGScheme139225TBDSceneryJourneySJScheme52266500TianjiTJScheme5849800IncludesUSD5035mnintercompanyclaimbyCEGagainstTJitisentitledtoreceiveschemeconsiderationasaschemecreditorintheTJSchemeaswithotherTJotherexistingdebtinstrumentscreditorsCEGSchemeOption1Newnoteswithatenorof10-12yearsataconversionratioof1xA1C1NotesOption2Eitheroneoracombinationofboth1Newnoteswithatenorof5-9yearsA2C2Notes2Apackageof5equity-linkedinstrumentseithersecuredoverlinkedtomandatorilyexchangeableintoormandatorilyconvertibleintolistedsharesoftheGroupEvergrandePropertyServicesEvergrandeNewEnergyVehiclesConsentfee025oftheoutstandingprincipalamounttobepaidinPIKForOption1creditorwillreceivethePIKnotesin10yearsandforOption2is7yearsOption1A1C1NotesMaturities3tranchesTrancheABCduein101112yearsInterestPayablesemi-annuallyinarrearsincashofinkindattheelectionoftheissuerTrancheA2paifallpaidincashor3paifanypotionpaidinkindTrancheB25paifallpaidincashor35paifanypotionpaidinkindTrancheC3paifallpaidincashor4paifanypotionpaidinkindGuaranteeonlyapplicableSameastheguarantorguaranteeingtheexistingnotesTheA1NotesguaranteesshallbeforA1NotessubordinatedtotheA2NotesguaranteestheA2EVPSSLNguaranteesandtheA2NEVSLNguaranteesOption2A2NotesMaturities4tranchesTrancheABCDduein5678yearsInterestTrancheA5paifallpaidincashor6paifanypotionpaidinkindTrancheB55paifallpaidincashor65paifanypotionpaidinkindTrancheC6paifallpaidincashor7paifanypotionpaidinkindTrancheD65paifallpaidincashor75paifanypotionpaidinkindPayablesemi-annuallyinarrearsForthefirst25yearsinterestpaidincashofinkindattheelectionoftheissuer323Mar2023Forthe31st-36thmonthatleast05oftheoutstandingprincipalpaidincashForthe4thyearatleast3painterestpaidincashStartingfrom5thyearallinterestpaidincashGuaranteeSameastheguarantorguaranteeingtheexistingnotesTheA1NotesguaranteestobesubordinatedtoA2NotesguaranteesOption2C2NotesMaturities3tranchesTrancheABCduein788yearsInterestTrancheA6paifallpaidincashor7paifanypotionpaidinkindTrancheB65paifallpaidincashor75paifanypotionpaidinkindTrancheC7paifallpaidincashor8paifanypotionpaidinkindPayablesemi-annuallyinarrearsForthefirst25yearsinterestpaidincashofinkindattheelectionoftheissuerForthe31st-36thmonthatleast05oftheoutstandingprincipalpaidincashForthe4thyearatleast3painterestpaidincashStartingfrom5thyearallinterestpaidincashOption2Equity-linkedinstrumentpackagesperUSD1000ClassAClassCEVPSMEBsPrincipalAmount10849NEVMEBsPrincipalAmount345446CEGMCBsPrincipalAmount4659A2C2EVPSSLNsPrincipalAmount22592A2C2NEVSLNsPrincipalAmount276354423Mar2023SJSchemeMaturities5tranchesTrancheABCDEduein45678yearsInterestTrancheA55paifallpaidincashor65paifanypotionpaidinkindTrancheB6paifallpaidincashor7paifanypotionpaidinkindTrancheC65paifallpaidincashor75paifanypotionpaidinkindTrancheD7paifallpaidincashor8paifanypotionpaidinkindTrancheE75paifallpaidincashor85paifanypotionpaidinkindPayablesemi-annuallyinarrearsForthefirst25yearsinterestpaidincashofinkindattheelectionoftheissuerForthe31st-36thmonthatleast07oftheoutstandingprincipalpaidincashForthe4thyearatleast3painterestpaidincashStartingfrom5thyearallinterestpaidincashGuaranteesKeepwellSameastheguarantorguaranteeingtheexistingnotesKeepwellagreementtobeprovidedbyHengdaRealEstatewithdetailedtermstobeagreedSecuritySharechargedgivenbyTianjianditsoffshoresubsidiariesoverthesharestheyholdintheSJNotesguarantorAndchargeovercertainintercompanyreceivablestobeagreedTJSchemeMaturities4tranchesTrancheABCDduein5678yearsInterestTrancheA6paifallpaidincashor7paifanypotionpaidinkindTrancheB65paifallpaidincashor75paifanypotionpaidinkindTrancheC7paifallpaidincashor8paifanypotionpaidinkindTrancheD75paifallpaidincashor85paifanypotionpaidinkindPayablesemi-annuallyinarrearsForthefirst25yearsinterestpaidincashofinkindattheelectionoftheissuerForthe31st-36thmonthatleast07oftheoutstandingprincipalpaidincashForthe4thyearatleast3painterestpaidincashStartingfrom5thyearallinterestpaidincashConsentfee025oftheoutstandingprincipalamounttobepaidinPIKSecuritySharechargesSourceCompanysfilling523Mar2023OffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponYieldMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedTodayOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineTodayNewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere109creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB108bnAsforMonth-to-date1744creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB1620bnraisedrepresentinga26yoyincreaseAGILEAgileGroupexpectsRMB125-135bnnetlossforFY22CENCHICentralChinaexpectsRMB7-8bnnetlossforFY22DEXICNDexinChinaexpectsnetprofitforFY22dropbyRMB21-235bnascomparedtoRMB238bnnetprofitforFY21EVERREChinaEvergrandeannouncesplansforproposedoffshoredebtrestructuringinvolvingbondequityswapsGCLNEGCLNewEnergyacceptsforpurchaseUSD364mnof10seniornotesdue2024viatenderHRINTHMoodysreviewedHuarongAMCsratingsfordowngradeandvieweditslargeamountsofnetlossin2022asareflectionofHuarongAMCsweaknessinriskmanagementSINOCESino-OceanexpectsRMB15-18bnnetlossforFY22SYNNVXShanghaiexchangescheduledlistinghearingforChinaChemunitSyngentaon29MarforitscUSD10bnIPOYANGOGYangoGroupschedulesputoptionexerciseforRMB315mnnoteson7-21AprYUEXIUYuexiuPropertyplanstoissueuptoRMB15bncorporatebondstorepaycorporatebondspreviouslyissuedZENENTZensunexpectsRMB25-3bnnetlossforFY22CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBank623Mar2023AuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport7