>> 招银国际-L.K. Technology (558 HK) Key takeaways from plant visit in Shenzhen-230324
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研究报告全文：24Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateLKTechnology558HKNOTRATEDKeytakeawaysfromplantvisitinShenzhenCurrentPriceHK940Integrateddie-castingsolutioncontinuestooffercostadvantagetoautomakersLKbelievesthatthereplacementofweldingbydie-castingwillcontinueasithelpsautomakersachieve1Costreduction40reductionChinaCapitalGoodsincapexand30decreaseinfloorareatakenbyproductionline2Lightweighting10-20reductionintotalcarweighttranslatingintoa14WayneFungCFAenhancementindrivingrangechargingforNEVand3Production85239000826efficiencyproductioncycleisshortenedsubstantiallyfrom120minsto110-waynefungcmbicomhk120sbyapplyingintegrateddie-castingtechnologyEstimatedmarketsizeofultra-largesizedie-castingmachineryKatherineNgAccordingtoLKeachultra-largesizedie-castingmachinecanproduce155k85237618725katherinengcmbicomhkunitsofcomponentannuallyEachNEVgenerallyneedsthreepiecesoflargedie-castingpartsAssuming125mnunitsofNEVdemandinChinain2025EStockDataaccordingtoCMBIautoteamweestimatethetotaloperatingvolumeofdie-MktCapHKmn12938castingmachineswillpotentiallyreach300setsassuming80utilizationAvg3mthstoHKmn12527rateifintegrateddie-castingsolutionisfullyappliedTheultra-largesizedie-52wHighLowHK1976584TotalIssuedSharesmn13704castingmachinery6000TandabovemarketwillpotentiallyreachSourceBloombergRMB19bnby2025EbasedonestimatedASPofRMB63mnNewproductionplanttoboostcapacitygrowthinFY24EMaryear-endShareholdingStructureLiusfamily623HangzhouBayplantisLKsnewproductionbasewhichisexpectedtoOthers377commenceoperationinJulAug2023UponcompletionLKsmonthlySourceHKExcapacityofultra-largesizedie-castingmachinewillincreasesubstantiallyfrom2-3setscurrentlyto8setsSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelativeLaunchofnewproductsandcross-sellingstrategyTwoultra-largesize1-mth-47-06die-castingunitmodelswithlargetonnage12000Twillbelaunchedin3-mth3303366-mth-13-852HFY24EwhichisspecificallydesignedfortheproductionofifrontmiddleSourceBloombergandrearchassisforA00classmodelsandiimid-floorbatterytrayOntheotherhandLKplanstoboostthesalesofCNCmachinesthroughcross-12-mthPricePerformanceHKsellingstrategygiventhestandardcombinationofoneunitofdie-casting558HKHSIrebased250machineandfourunitsofCNCmachine200PotentialearningsrecoveryinFY24EGiventhegradualrecoveryofsales150in2HFY23EOct2022-Mar2023weseepotentialforLKstoachieve100revenuegrowthof10-20YoYandstablenetprofitinFY23Enote1HFY23E50revenuenetprofitgrowth3-33duetolockdowninSHGoingforward00LKtargetstodelivera30YoYrevenuegrowthinFY24Emainlydrivenby32022620229202212202232023therisingcontributionofultra-largesizedie-castingmachineryTheaverageSourceBloombergsellingpriceof6000-9000T12000TmodelsRMB40-50mnRMB63mnEarningsSummaryAuditorPricewaterhouseCoopersYE31MarFY19AFY20AFY21AFY22ARelatedReportsRevenueHKmn36042746402153621LKTechnology558HKNRYoYgrowth-33-238464334SolidresultsinFY21StrongNetincomeHKmn1913344626backlogtodrivefurthergrowth30EPSHK0160000302620456Jun20212LKTechnology558HKNRYoYgrowth-263-98394309740BeneficiaryofnewenergyvehiclesConsensusEPSHKnanananacapexgrowth4Feb2021PEx284494205142PBx58734161358206Yield58625035ROE05000610Netgearing8702155203SourceCompanydataCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk24Mar2022Figure1LKs3500Tdie-castingmachineSourceCompanydataCMBIGMFigure2AutopartsproducedbyLKdie-castingmachineSourceCompanyCMBIGMFigure3Heatsinkandfilterappliedin5GFigure4EscalatorstepproducedbyLKdie-castingcommunicationproducedbyLKdie-castingmachinemachineSourceCompanyCMBIGMSourceCompanyCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE224Mar2022Figure5LKsrevenuebreakdownFY18FY19FY20FY21FY22RevenueHKmnDie-castingmachine26182602190927003907Plasticinjectionmoulding107994975612461365CNCmachiningcentre14210399118181Totalbeforeinter-segmentelimination38393653276540645453Inter-segmenteliminations11049194391Totalrevenue37293604274640215362GrowthYoYDie-castingmachine111-06-266415447Plasticinjectionmoulding271-121-20364796CNCmachiningcentre49-276-31190530Totalbeforeinter-segmentelimination149-48-243470342Inter-segmenteliminations-40-557-61913071108Totalrevenue156-33-238464334SourceCompanydataCMBIGMFigure6LKsfinancialsYEMar31HKmnFY18FY19FY20FY21FY22RevenueDie-castingmachine26182602190927003907Plasticinjectionmoulding107994975612461365CNCmachiningcentre14210399118181Totalbeforeinter-segmentelimination38393653276540645453Inter-segmenteliminations11049194391Totalrevenue37293604274640215362Costofsales27232715202829063796Grossprofit100589071811151566Otherincome66657075103Othergainsandlosses9779115939SDexpenses350339291366481Administrativeexpenses413353334344430Otherexpenses121222235EBIT393329131515793Netfinanceincomeexpense6876804927Financeincome55587Financeexpenses7381855634ShareofprofitofJVandassociates30180Pretaxprofit32725450458766Incometax866347114140Aftertaxprofit2411913344626MI10000Netprofit2421913344626Corenetprofit14411114285586DA135139138134146EBITDA528468269649938SourceCompanydataCMBIGMFigure7LKsrevenuetrendbyproductFigure8LKsgrossmargintrendHKmn30292600029Inter-segment5000eliminations277282704000CNCmachining27centre2623000262542482472000Plasticinjection25moulding241000Die-casting230machine221000FY16FY17FY18FY19FY20FY21FY22SourceCompanydataCMBIGMSourceCompanydataCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE324Mar2022DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4
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