>> 招银国际-China Internet – February online game market recap-230324
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研究报告全文：24Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateOUTPERFORMChinaInternetMaintainFebruaryonlinegamemarketrecapRevenueofChinasonlinegamemarketdecreasedby23YoYtoRMB216bnChinaInternetSectorinFeb2023perCNGasnewgameswereyettomakemeaningfulrevenuecontributionand2022ChineseNewYearCNYholidayfellinFebruarywhilstSaiyiHECFAittookplaceinJanuaryin2023whichledtoatoughercompSmoothingout85239161739CNYimpact2M23onlinegamesmarketrevenuewasdown20YoYAshesaiyicmbicomhkgamelicenseapprovalresumedmanyhighlyanticipatedgametitlesarelinedupforlaunchandwillleadindustryrecoveryfrom2Q23onwardsinourviewWentaoLU210gameslicenseshavebeenapprovedYTDequivalentto2841ofthenoluwentaocmbicomhkofgamelicensesapprovedinFY2122WepreferleadingonlinegamesYeTAOcompaniessuchasTencentandNetEasegiventheirstronggamepipelineinfranktaocmbicomhkFY23andcapabilitytoexpandoverseasenlargeTAMSupplyconstraintcontinuedtoweighonmobilegamesectorChinasRelatedReportsmobilegamemarketrevenuedroppedby28YoYtoRMB155bninFeb1Tencent700HKSteadyship2023ordeclinedby25YoYin2M23accordingtoCNGFewnewgamesandaimforsustainablegrowth23MarreportedmeaningfulincrementalrevenueinFeb2023TencentsUndawnwasthetopgrossingnewgameinFebwithestimatedgrossrevenueofover2BiliBiliBILIUSEvolvingtoaRMB300mnperCNGOthernewgameslaunchedinFebgeneratedlessself-sustainedbusinessmodel3MarthanRMB100mnrevenueWeexpectmorehighly-anticipatedmobilegamestobelaunchedanddriverevenuegrowthfrom2Q23onwardsPCgames3NetEaseNTESUSAimingformarketrevenuegrewby37YoYtoRMB53bninFeb2023long-termgrowth24FebOverseasgamingmarketstillexperiencingnear-termhighbaseeffect4ChinaInternet-2022onlinegameOverseasrevenuefromChinasself-developedgamesdroppedby14YoYmarketrecap16JantoUS124bninFeb2023Jan2023-15YoYastheoverseasmarketisstilldigestingreopeningeffectanduserscontroltheirspendingongames5ChinaInternet-Novemberonlinegamemarketrecap29DecamidmacrouncertaintyDespitetheshort-termheadwindChinesegamedevelopersremaineddedicatedtoexpandoverseaswiththeirrevenue6ChinaInternet-Qualitygrowthcontributionfromtheoverseasmarketrisingfrom261inFeb2022toandfurtherdigitizationpenetration281inFeb2023Tencentsoverseasrevenuewasup5YoYtoprovidegrowthsupport19DecRMB139bnandrepresented33ofitsgamerevenuein4Q22supported7NetEaseNTESUSPreparingbythesuccessfullaunchesofNIKKEandDarktidein4Q22fornextstrongproductcycle18PositiveongamesrevenuegrowthofleadingcompaniesinFY23WeNovforecastTencentsgamesrevenuetoincreaseby8YoYinFY23driven8Tencent700HKReturntobyastronggamepipelineinthedomesticgamemarketandreacceleratingearningsgrowthtrack17NovgrowthofinternationalgamerevenueWeforecastNetEasesonlinegamerevenuetoincreaseby7YoYinFY23supportedbyJusticeMobile9ChinaInternet-SocialplannedforlaunchinJuneandtheresilientperformanceoflegacytitlesentertainment3Q22previewremainsunderpressure10NovWearealsopositiveonBilismobilegamerevenuegrowthinFY23inviewoftheapprovalofhighlyanticipatedgametitlePettyDerbyinMarch202310Tencent700HKEcosystemAccordingtoSensorTowerPettyDerbygeneratedglobalrevenueofvalueandgrowingdiversificationUS965mninthefirstyearofitslaunchintheinternationalmarket28OctPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk24Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE2
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