我们上调目标价至16.10港元，对应7.4倍/6.6倍/6.0倍2023 /2024/ 2025年EV/EBITDA。维持“买入”评级。
　　 2022年营收和股东净利润分别为1,019.75亿港元和79.57亿港元，同比分别增长31.9%和17.0%。业绩符合预期。公司在2022年收到新合同1,607.26亿港元（同比增长14.8%），而截至2022年12月31日，未完成合约总额为2,945.27亿港元（同比增长4.7%）。
　　中建国际充分受益于香港和内地市场的基建扩张周期。科技驱动业务占比持续提升，将持续改善公司经营现金流。此外，凭借围绕强势品牌、资本实力和技术创新打造的商业模式，公司在获得优质的地方政府合约方面具有巨大的竞争优势。
　　催化剂：1）澳门博彩牌照刚刚确定，大型赌场和度假村设施项目即将动工；2）派息比率或将提高。
　　风险：1）政府基础设施支出可能低于预期；2）可能超预期的通胀或导致政策收紧；3）世界各地的疫情可能会出现波动。
　　

研究报告全文：股票研TableTitle黄家玮CompanyReportChinaStateConstructionInternational03311HKGaryWong究85225092616EquityResearch公司报告中国建筑国际03311HKgarywonggtjascomhk23March2023TechnologyTableSummaryandBusinessModelCompetitivenessBoostsHigh-QualityDevelopmentMaintainBuy科技及商业模式优势推动高质量发展维持买入公WeraisetheTPtoHK1610representing74x66x60x20232024RatingTableRankBuy司2025EVEBITDAReiterateBuyratingMaintained报2022revenueandshareholdersnetprofitwereHK101975millionand评级买入维持告HK7957millionYoYincreaseof319and170respectivelyCompanyReportCompanyResultswereinlinewithexpecationsTheCompanyreceivedHK160726million148YoYinnewcontractsduring2022whileasat6TablePrice-18mTP目标价HK1610December312022totalbacklogwasHK294527million47YoYRevisedfrom原目标价HK1586Shareprice股价HK9300CSCIfullybenefitedfromtheinfrastructureexpansioncyclesofHongKongandmainlandChinamarketsTherisingproportionoftechnology-drivenbusinesseswillcontinuetoimprovetheCompanysStockperformanceoperatingcashflowInadditionwiththebusinessmodelbeingbuiltarounda股价表现strongbrandcapitalstrengthandtechnologyinnovationtheCompanyhasaTableQuotePichugecompetitiveadvantageinobtaininghigh-qualitylocalgovernmentofreturncontracts00证50Catalysts1Macaugaminglicenseshavejustbeenfinalizedlarge-scale券告100casinoandresortfacilitiesprojectsareabouttostartconstruction2150研报possibleincreaseindividendspayout200究究Risks1Governmentinfrastructurespendingmaybelowerthanexpected250报2possibleinflationexceedingexpectationsmaycausepolicytightening3300研possibleworldwideCovidpandemicresurgences350告券400EquityResearchReportResearchEquity我们上调目标价至1610港元对应74倍66倍60倍202320242025年EVEBITDAMar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23Tab证维持买入评级leIHSIindexCHINASTATECONSTRUCTIONINT建nfo12022年营收和股东净利润分别为101975亿港元和7957亿港元同比分别增长319筑和170业绩符合预期公司在2022年收到新合同160726亿港元同比增长148而截至年月日未完成合约总额为亿港元同比增长ChangeTablePriceChangeinSharePrice1M3M1Y工2022123129452747股价变动1个月3个月1年程中建国际充分受益于香港和内地市场的基建扩张周期科技驱动业务占比持续提升将持EngineeringSectorEngineeringAbs25147101绝对变动行续改善公司经营现金流此外凭借围绕强势品牌资本实力和技术创新打造的商业模ReltoHSIndex1615104业式公司在获得优质的地方政府合约方面具有巨大的竞争优势相对恒指变动TableIAvgSharepriceHK949187催化剂1澳门博彩牌照刚刚确定大型赌场和度假村设施项目即将动工2派息比率平均股价港元nfo2SourceBloombergGuotaiJunanInternationalConstructionConstruction或将提高风险1政府基础设施支出可能低于预期2可能超预期的通胀或导致政策收紧3世界各地的疫情可能会出现波动YearTableEndTurnoverNetProfitEPSEPSPERBPSPBRDPSYieldROEProfit年结收入股东净利每股净利每股净利变动市盈率每股净资产市净率每股股息股息率净资产收益率1231HKmHKmHKxHKxHK中2021A7731068011349133691120508040544129国2022A101975795715791705911472080480521392023F12489596971924218481282707057061158建中2024F143393112872240164421439706067072165筑2025F158131125792496114371614406075081164国外Sharesinissuem总股数m50376Majorshareholder大股东COHL648际运TableBaseDataMarketcapHKm市值HKm468497Freefloat自由流通比率352输3monthaveragevol3个月平均成交股数00064684FY23NetgearingFY23净负债股东资金65252WeekshighlowHK52周高低HK110606950FY23EstNAVHKFY23每股估值港元194SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalChinaStateConstructionInternational03311HK03311InternationalConstructionStateChinaSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of6TablePageHeaderChinaStateConstructionInternational03311HKWereiterateBuyratingandraisetheTPtoHK1610WeforecastChinaStateConstructionInternationalsCSCIortheCompanyEPSfor202320242025tobeHK1924HK2240HK2496respectively1whichraMrepresentsthgiYoYRgrowthelbofaT218164114WeraisetheTPtoHK1600representing74x66x60x202320242025EVEBITDAReiterateBuyrating2022resultswereinlinewithexpectationnewcontractsincreased148YoYtoHK160726million2022revenueandshareholdersnetprofitwereHK101975millionandHK7957millionYoYincreaseof319and170respectivelyResultswereinlinewithexpecationsRevenuefrommainlandChinamarketHongKongmarketMacaumarketandCSC23March2023DevelopmentwereHK48631million200YoYHK37214million561YoYHK10542million254YYandHK5588million233YoYrespectivelyTheCompanyreceivedHK160726million148YoYinnewcontractsduring2022whileasatDecember312022totalbacklogwasHK294527million47YoYNewcontractstargetfor2023isHK180billiona120increasecomparedwith2022Figure1Segmentalrevenuefor2022Figure2Segmentalgrossprofitfor2022CSCDevelopmentMacauCSCDevelopmentMacau4110355522raMthgiRelbaTHongKong121MainlandChina47703311HKHongKongMainland365China786中国建筑国际SourcetheCompanySourcetheCompanyFigure3Segmentalnewcontractsfor2022Figure4Newcontractsandbacklogin2012-2022350000HKmn50CSCDevelopment300000Macau6340862500002000003015000020ChinaStateConstructionInternationalMainland100000China10HongKong5725000027900020122013201420152016201720182019202020212022BacklogNewContractsBacklogtoRevenueRHSSourcetheCompanySourcetheCompanyCSCIfullybenefitedfromtheinfrastructureexpansioncyclesofHongKongandmainlandChinamarketsTheChiefExecutives2022PolicyAddressmentionedthatanumberofinfrastructureplansforhospitalspublichousingandtransportationwillcommenceandoutlinedthatthepreliminaryworkformega-sizedprojectssuchasNorthernMetropolitanDevelopmentStrategyandLantauTomorrowVisionwillbelaunchedinthenearfutureWeexpectannualspendingonpublicconstructiontoincreasetoHK150billioninthenexttwoyearsfromaboutHK80billioncurrentlyTheCompanyscurrentmarketshareinthepublicconstructionmarketexceeds30andwillfullybenefitfromthesubstantialexpansionofthepublicconstructionmarketinHongKongInadditionaccordingtotheNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinathetotalretailsalesofconsumergoodsfromJanuarytoFebruary2023increasedby35year-on-yearinfrastructureinvestmentincreasedby90year-on-yearexportsdecreasedby68year-on-yearimportsdecreasedby102year-on-yearThedatashowedthatinCompanyReportadditiontothecontinuedmomentumofinfrastructureinvestmentconsumptionandnetexportshasyettorecoverThereforeinordertoachievethe2023GovernmentWorkReportsGDPgrowthtargetofabout5thisyearinfrastructureinvestmentSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of6TablePageHeaderChinaStateConstructionInternational03311HKneedstomaintainarelativelyhighgrowthrateTheconstructionofpublichousingwillbethecoreofsuchasitachievesthetargetsofstrengtheningtheconstructionofthehousingsecuritysystemsupportingrigidand1rimprovedaMthhousinggiRneedselandbaTsolvingthehousingproblemsofnewcitizensandyoungpeoplewhichwerementionedinthe2023GovernmentWorkReportAsamajorpublichousingconstructionengineeringcompanyinmainlandChinatheCompanywillpromptlysignificantlybenefitTheproportionoftechnology-drivenbusinessescontinuestorisewhichwillcontinuetoimprovetheCompanysoperatingcashflowIn2022technology-drivenrevenueamountedtoHK3042billion755YoYandnewcontracts23March2023amountedtoHK5159billion706YoYgrowthratesmuchhigherthantheCompanysoverallrevenue319YoYandnewcontracts148YoYShenzhenLonghuaZhangkengjingTalentHousingProjectwhichisabouttobecompletedisthenationsfirstconcretemodularhigh-risebuildingprojectandthefastestcompletedhigh-riseaffordablehousingprojectItwillbepromotedtothewholecountryasademonstrationprojectWethinkthatunderthebackgroundofthecontinuouslaborshortagecausedbytheagingpopulationandthegovernmentsproposaltoacceleratethevigorousdevelopmentofgreenbuildingsandachievethegoalsoflow-carbonenvironmentalprotectionenergyconservationandemissionreductioninthewholeprocessofengineeringconstructionuseofindustrializationandmodularbuildingswillusherinmajordevelopmentopportunitiesChinaStateConstructionHailongTechnologyawhollyownedsubsidiaryoftheCompanyisthelargestcomprehensiveprefabricatedbuildingenterpriseinChinawithItsMICproductsmatrixhavingconcreteMiCproductssteelstructureMiCproductsandelevatorMiCproductsservingthedifferentiatedneedsforresidential2raMcommerthgicialRandeloldbaTrenovationpropertyprojectsallowingittorapidlycapturefastgrowingMiCmarketshareSincetechnology-drivenbusinessisbasedontheCompanysresearchanddevelopmentcapabilitiesandtechnologyknowhowaccumulationithasstrongbargainingpowerwithitsclientsTheprofitmarginofthesebusinessesisgenerallyhigherthanthatofcashconstruction03311HKbusinesswhileitscashcollectioncycleissimilarThereforetheincreaseinproportionofitstechnology-drivenbusinesscanbufferfortheprofitmarginpressureofotherbusinesssegmentswhileimprovingoperatingcashflowWiththebusinessmodelbuildingaroundastrongbrandcapitalstrengthandtechnologyinnovationtheCompany中国建筑国际hasagreatcompetitiveadvantageinobtaininghigh-qualitylocalgovernmentcontractsTheresettlementhousingprojectinLongguiCeramicsCityBaiyunDistrictGuangzhouofficiallystartedonFebruary62023andwasCSCIsfirstgovernmenttargetedrepurchaseGTRprojectinGuangzhouTheprojectadoptedthedevelopmentmodeloflimitedlandpricecompetitiverepurchasepricetheCompanyfirstbidthelandatalimitedpriceofRMB164billiononDecember152022andwouldgraduallyaddRMB2billioninconstructioncostswithatotalinvestmentofRMB36billionAftercompletionthegovernmentwillpayRMB429billiontorepurchasetheprojectThismodelnotonlyrelievesthegovernmentsfinancialpressureintheearlystagesbutalsobringstheCompanyahigherreturnoninvestmentthanordinarycashconstructionprojectsBeingabletoobtainsuchfavorableconditionsreflectsthestrongbrandofChinaStateConstructionaffiliatesastrongfinancialstrengthandtheCompanysinvestmentandaccumulationintechnologyinnovationovertheyearsWethinkthatthisbusinessmodelcombiningstrongbrandcapitalstrengthandtechnologyinnovationisnoteasytobereplicatedandChinaStateConstructionInternationalwillenabletheCompanytoobtainbetterpaymenttermsandhigherreturnoninvestmentinotheraffordablehousingconstructionprojectsCatalysts1TheMacaugaminglicenseshasjustbeenfinalizedlarge-scalecasinoandresortfacilityprojectsareabouttostartconstruction2dividendspayoutmayincreaseduetooperatingcashflowhasturnedpositiveforthefirsttimesince2016whilecapexpeakhaspassedRisks1Governmentinfrastructurespendingmaybelowerthanexpected2inflationcouldexceedexpectationsandmaycausepolicytightening3worldwideCovidpandemicsituationmightseefluctuationCompanyReportSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of6TablePageHeaderChinaStateConstructionInternational03311HKTable1Peersvaluation1raMthgiRelbaTPEPBROEDYEVEBITDACompanyStockCodeCurrencyLastpriceMarketcapmn22F23F24F25F22F23F24F25F23F23F23FChinaStateConstructionInt03311HKHKD93004685059524644080706061385979ChangshaBroadHomesIndus-H02163HKHKD42002048nana156na050505nana11236ChinaRailwayGroupLtd-H00390HKHKD514019246037322929040303031085580ChinaRailwayConstruction-H01186HKHKD576013643826232010020202na98595323March2023ChinaCommunicationsConst-H01800HKHKD482017236835323141020202027357125MetallurgicalCorpOfChin-H01618HKHKD2070846414136320103030302965683ChinaEnergyEngineeringC-H03996HKHKD104010308749413610040303038224naAsiaAlliedInfrastructureH00711HKHKD052093477nanana04nanananananaDitGroupLtd00726HKHKD0320993nananananananananananaHanisonConstructionHolding00896HKHKD1160128083nanana03nanananananaSocamDevelopmentLtd00983HKHKD1180441nananananananananananaYauLeeHoldingsLtd00406HKHKD148064895nanana04nanananananaChinaStateConstructionDev00830HKHKD19904489104775741211714112384556SimpleAverage614251250605050511946102WeightedAverage38333123030303029552752raMthgiRelbaTSourceBloombergNoteCalculationsofPERsandPBRsforChinaStateConstructionInternationals03311HKandChinaStateConstructionDevelopment00830HKforFY22arebasedonasreportedshareholdersnetprofitsandnetbookvaluesoftherespectivecompaniesfor202203311HK中国建筑国际ChinaStateConstructionInternationalCompanyReportSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage4of6TablePageHeaderChinaStateConstructionInternational03311HKFinancialStatementsandRatiosTableIncomeStatementTableBalanceSheetIncomeStatement1BalanceraSheetMthgiRelbaTYearend31DecHKDm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FYearend31DecHKDm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FTotalRevenue77310101975124895143393158131PropertyPlantandEquipment56985440596364346893CostofSales6532787957107405123497136412InterestinJVsAssociates2773524254236102311022746GrossProfit1198314019174901989621719ConcessionOperatingRights37853328287124151958Long-termReceivables5443553286559505874861685InvestmentandOtherIncomeGainsNet11971577121713521473InterestsinInfrastructureProject23March2023SGAExpenses22792435287331553321Investments57274742497952285490OperatingProfit1090113161158341809319871OtherNon-currentAssets7948962098721025510585TotalNon-currentAssets105328100670103246106190109358FinanceCosts26682991297431783311ShareofProfitsofJVsAssociates1152609687775874Inventories367590644741818ProfitBeforeTax938510779135471569017434TradeandOtherReceivables59240658308062692567102081IncomeTax19492309312936454055ContractAssets1346818777252973049634303ProfitAfterTax74368469104181204513379AmountsDuefromJVsAssociatesRelatedCompanies69788827104361155112264Non-controllingInterest635513720758801CashCashEquivalents2440723874228052398027638ShareholdersProfitLoss6801795796971128712579OtherCurrentAssets9498102751098711813127352raMthgiRelbaTTotalCurrentAssets113957128173150795171149189840BasicEPS13491579192422402496TotalAssets219284228843254041277339299197DPS04050480057006700750Short-termBorrowings1010513720144061512615882TradePayablesOtherPayablesand03311HKTableCashFlowStatementCashFlowStatementAccruals6056169737807088907695485ContractLiabilitiesYearend31DecHKDm2021A2022A2023F2024F2025FOtherCurrentLiabilities2225619368230512616028670ProfitBeforeTax938510779135471569017434TotalCurrentLiabilities92922102825118165130362140036中国建筑国际DepreciationandAmortisation432452474497521ChangeinWorkingCapital918910192843583057299Long-termBorrowings4784845457477305011752622OtherOperatingActivities1179827167820912457OtherNon-currentLiabilities1229712772129771319513427CashfromOperatingActivities551212390857918199TotalNon-currentLiabilities6014658229607076331266050TotalLiabilities153068161054178872193673206086CapitalExpenditure686716787747750OtherInvestingActivities4251188519831288856ShareCapital126126126126126CashfromInvestingActivities49381169277020351606Reserves5632057664644897240081199TotalShareholdersEquity5644657790646157252681325IssuanceRepurchaseofShares550000MinorityInterest97709999105541113911787IssuanceRepaymentofDebts110501224295931073262TotalEquity6621667789751698366593111Dividends46095033539260506687TotalEquityandLiabilities219284228843254041277339299197ChinaStateConstructionInternationalOtherFinancingActivities5771544999769CashfromFinancingActivities69642265253230413494BVPS1120511472128271439716144CashatBegofYear2241224340237932270823864TableFinancialRatioNetChangesinCash147588413947163099FinancialRatiosForex4543373094405352021A2022A2023F2024F2025FAddPledgedbankdeposits688197117140CashatEndofYear2440723874228052398027638GrossMargin155137140139137OperatingMargin141129127126126NetMargin8878787980ROA3135384142SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternationalROE129139158165164NetGearingRatio640663652609543InterestCoveragex4144535760CompanyReportSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage5of6TablePageHeaderChinaStateConstructionInternational03311HKCompanyTableCompanyRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndex1raMthgiRelbaTTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to523March2023orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableIndustryRatingDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance52raMthgiRelbaTorthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5Orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorable03311HKTableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport中国建筑国际3GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesarenotmakingamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesDISCLAIMERChinaStateConstructionInternationalThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkCompanyReportSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage6of6