研究报告全文：ResearchEquityMarketStrategy20March2023JakeWang8675523976675wangchangjianggtjascomOverseasLiquidityRisks-ACrisisthatPresentsAccumulationOpportunitiesSummaryTheHongKongstockmarketexhibitedanoscillatingdowntrendrecentlyfacedwithmultipleheadwinds1StrategyReportChinasdomesticCPIandPPIbothfellMoMinFebruarylowerthanmarketexpectationsAsthedropininflationseemedcontradictorytothestrongFebruaryPMIdatareleasedearlierthismonthinvestorsweresomewhatdividedonthepaceofChinaseconomicrecovery2Givenrelativelylowconsumptionsectorssuchasautomobilesinternet-retailersetcbegantoadoptapricecompetitionstrategywhichtookatollonearningsforecasts3SeveraloverseasbanksandassetmanagementcompaniesreportedliquiditydifficultiesanddeclaredbankruptcyduetotheUSFederalReservesFedcontinuousmonetarytighteningsinceMarch2022RisingliquidityrisksintheUSfinancialsystemrecentlyledtorisk-offsentimentintheHongKongstockmarketOurtakeonshort-termmarketperformancedeterminantsDespiteoutperformanceinthelatestsocialfinancingdatawenoticedafewstructuralmismatchesthatmayhinderthetransmissionofcreditexpansiontotherealeconomyFurtherimprovementincreditdemandmaydependonensuingpolicystimulusMeanwhilewebelievethatimpactsfrom告overseasliquidityriskeventsontheHongKongstockmarketwillbelimited报ResearchReportWerecommendtoholdondefensivesectorsandwaitfornewcatalysts1MarketdivergenceonChinaseconomic究recoveryalongwithliquidityissuesinoverseasfinancialsystemsmayincreaseshort-termvolatilityintheHongKongEquity研stockmarketThuswerecommendholdingondefensivesectorsuntilnewcatalystsemerge2The5GDPgrowth券targetalthoughlowerthanthemarketexpectedhasbeenmostlypricedingiventherecentmarketcorrectionsWebelievethatfurtherdownsideintheshortrunmaybelimitedconsideringthattheChinesedomesticeconomyisstill证improvingoverallThatsaidinvestorsareremindedtokeepupdatedonSino-USrelationswhichcouldweighonshort-termmarketsentimentTPositivecatalystsin2Q23andonwardmainlyconsistofcontinuedeconomicrecoveryinChinaorapivotintheaFedsmonetarypolicystance1ChinasdomesticcreditdemandinMarchmaybeweakerthanthatinJan-FebbHoweverinthemediumtermChinasexportsmaycontinuetoexperiencedownwardpressureWeexpectmorepolicylstimulusinthesecondquartertocompensateforthedecreaseinexportsandtostabilizegrowthwhichmayenhanceeearningsexpectationsforlistedcompaniesintheHongKongstockmarket2MarketexpectationsontheFedstargetratehavebeennotablyreviseddownsincetheSiliconValleyBankSVBincidentWeexpectfurtherdecreaseintheUSLMarketStrategydollarindexaswellasUSTreasuryyieldswhichwillfavortheHongKongstockmarketefWeexpecttheHSItocontinueoscillatingnearitscurrentlevelintheshorttermwerecommendahighdividendtstrategyandaccumulatingliquidity-sensitivenamesondips1SectorswithbothhighdividendpayoutsandlowPBMratiossuchastelecomservicesinfrastructuretransportationetcnamelythestate-ownedenterprises2thepreciousametalssectorwhichmaybenefitfromheightenedriskaversionandlowerFedtargetrateexpectationsand3rliquidity-sensitivesectorswithlowlevelsofcrowdingsuchaspharmaceuticalssemiconductorsaswellasconstituentsgfromtheHSTECHIndexiRiskFactors1Chinasdomesticeconomicrecoverymayfallshortofexpectations2theUSFederalReservemayntightenpolicymorethanmarketexpectation3uncertaintiesinSino-USrelationsSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of9SeNoteClosingpricesareasatMar10at2023asarepricesClosingNoteSourceFiguree12000160002000024000280003200036000thelasJanWindWindt1pagFebTheHSIeGuotaiJunanInternationalJunanGuotaiforMardisclaimer2020AprfellMayrecentlyupThisreportwillmainlyfocusontheanalysisofshortofanalysistheonfocusmainlywillreportThisupwhtrendimprovinganmaintainedindicatorsrisktoledrecentlysystemfinancialUStheChinasrecoverygivenlessmarketstockKongHongTheMeanwhileMeanwhileChinasaggregatefinancingsocialinFebruarymarketexpectationsexceededintheUSfinancialriskssystemtorecentlyriskledtoduebankruptcydeclaredanddifficultiesliquidityreportedcompaniesmanagementassetandbanksoverseasetautomobilesassuchsectorsconsumptionlowrelativelyGivenrecovery2economicChinasofpacetheondividedsomewhatwereinvestorsmonththisearlierreleasedindecreasetheAsexpectationsheadwindsdowntrendoscillatinganexhibitedmarketstockKongHongTheFactorsHKcorrespondingexploringstrategiesfluctuationsduringmarketandresidentsenterprisespolicythatfromasthatbelieverespectivelyWeYoYbasisaonbillionRMB1322billionRMB6048mediumwhichamongaccumulatinghyperwith2021cbegantoadoptpricecompetitionstrategywhichtookatollJunleadingindicatorsakteraeoMlilHeadwindsMultipleonRetreatedMarketJulonmultipleheadwindsmultipleon2022Aug-rvnntaieobnsoneteandihadhfnnigedofneedsfinancingtheandhighremainedinvesttobanksofinitiativesdrivenAre-esnlrwhnelasidctntapstvfactorspositivethatindicatingloansnewingrowthseasonal1ChinasdomesticCPIandPPIbothfellMoMinFebruarylowerthanmarketmarketthanlowerFebruaryinMoMfellbothPPIandCPIdomesticChinas1SephnwydescafnnigoaeRB6rlinste2023FebatastrillionRMB316totaledfinancingsocialaddednewlyTheStillBuildingUpStilltheOct2023-FedscontinuousmonetarytighteningsinceMasincetighteningmonetarycontinuousFedsofNovandtheChineseeconomytheimprovingfinancial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