消费回暖或有反转
　　①消费近期表现回暖。深加工的消费量当前已经超过历史同期，而饲料企业消费尽管仍偏低，但同样处于季节性回升中。
　　②售粮进度已经达到七成。当前的售粮进度已经达到七成，而可以看到东北的售粮进度和去年相差无几，在最近的一段时间进度已经完全赶上，而全国售粮进度已经超过去年同期4个百分点。
　　总结：进一步下挫空间目前看来已经比较有限，震荡反复后，玉米的价格存在重新上涨的可能性。

研究报告全文：南华玉米淀粉周报20230305震荡选边南华研究院边舒扬Z0012647玉米淀粉周度综述本周总结上游下游饲料企业平均库存3152天周环比增加137天较去年同期下跌供应全国售粮进度为70较上期增加4较去年同期增加4多饲料养殖183饲料企业有所增加但同比偏低多北方港口库存2228万吨同比增加323万吨当周北方港口淀粉加工企业上周消化玉米2165万吨较前一周增加03万吨深库存下海量215万吨同比减少38万吨广东内贸库存377万吨中淀粉加工企业玉米库存4906万吨环比增加985已经达到历史均多较上周增加34万吨外贸库存1398万吨较上周减少16万吨值附近进口美玉米累计出口给中国4057万吨本周出口至中国87吨多酒精酒精企业上周消化玉米4182万吨环比上调239万吨中玉米基差近期基差呈现季节性回落期货与现货当前平水中淀粉期现5月基差收敛明显多美玉米出口呈现增长态势截至2月16日当周美出口2223美玉米多其他因素未来中国将增加巴西玉米的进口但整体量有限且周期偏长空年度玉米150298万吨其中单周为6664万吨消费回暖或有反转消费近期表现回暖深加工的消费量当前已经超过历史同期而饲料企业消费尽管仍偏低但同样处于季节性回升中观点售粮进度已经达到七成当前的售粮进度已经达到七成而可以看到东北的售粮进度和去年相差无几在最近的一段时间进度已经完全赶上而全国售粮进度已经超过去年同期4个百分点总结进一步下挫空间目前看来已经比较有限震荡反复后玉米的价格存在重新上涨的可能性策略逢低布局多单关注米粉价差重新扩大的可能性技术分析玉米价格当前处于均线交织的情况中走势还不明朗淀粉价格当前站上60日均线后续存在短期均线快速上穿60日均线走强的可能性美玉米暴跌后开始风险淀粉生产利润回升但10日均线存在较大压力玉米淀粉周度统计期货数据合约收盘价周涨跌涨跌幅备注现货数据价格周涨跌基差变化C012729-38-137锦州港28500-1729C052838-29-101蛇口港2970-1010339玉米CC092805-26-092四平2730-10-13739玉米主力2838-29-102C2305潍坊28100-5729CS013058-28-091黑龙江29000-151-11CS05305111036吉林29700-81-11淀粉CSCS093110-6-019河北3100049-11淀粉主力305111036CS2305山东3110059-1CBOT玉米玉米主力64075-85-131ZC2305期货价差数据价差周涨跌重点关注现货价差数据价差周涨跌01-05-109-9锦州港-蛇口港-12010玉米C05-0933-3玉米现货锦州港-四平1201009-017648锦州港-潍坊40001-057-39黑龙江-吉林-700淀粉CS05-09-5917淀粉现货黑龙江-河北-200009-015243黑龙江-山东-2100仓单数据仓单增减售粮进度本周上周进口利润价格涨跌利润增减玉米56699-357全国7066美西地区265539-1197324611197淀粉11927-1088东北6864美湾地区264012-101123398810112加工利润利润增减玉米淀粉黑龙江-120-19港口当周增减库存当周增减吉林-146-34北方四港222801090企业库存99701890淀粉河北-86-19广东内贸37701210可售库存6214库存山东-110-12广东外贸13980785物理库存10620黑龙江-15930下游当周增减产量当周增减02酒精吉林-389-33饲料企业REFREF全国3213977玉米淀粉期货玉米期货走势图淀粉期货走势图上周玉米期货自高点回落整体300034002950重心下移290033002850320028002750310027002650300026002900美玉米盘整后暴255025002800跌两日价格走势已经转头向下玉米01玉米05玉米09淀粉01淀粉05淀粉09内外玉米价格对比玉米淀粉主力走势淀粉与玉米价85031003200差保持偏低水80030003100平2900750300028007002700290065026002800250060027002400550230026005002200250003CBOT玉米大连玉米玉米主力玉米淀粉主力玉米价差5-9价差小幅回落仍与2021年相似玉米1-5价差玉米5-9价差玉米9-1价差4010015020501000-20050-40-500-60-80-100-50-100-150-100-1201526313942212934455768728310110911212411312112921422231732541041842621722531232032841342142951552353161662471071872681181961718191101111121827101710251110111811261212122012281901-19052001-20052101-21052201-22052301-23051905-19092005-20092105-21092205-22092305-23091809-19011909-20012009-21012109-22012209-2301玉米1-3价差玉米3-5价差玉米5-7价差6060804060402004020-20200-40-600-80-20-20-100-40-120-40-140-60-60-160-8091961327911916921926101106115125111118126110117124131214221228101110161021102610311110111511201125113012101215122012251118115122129252122192263431131832541484154224291115112211291213122012271901-19032001-20032101-21032201-22032301-23031903-19052003-20052103-21052203-22052303-23051905-19072005-20072105-21072205-22072305-2307玉米7-9价差玉米9-11价差玉米11-01价差80100406080302040601020400020-10-200-20-40-20-30-60-40-40-80-60-50313831532232945412419426535105175245316761462162851585155225296561261962673710717724731878148218287178715722729858128198269299916923930107101410211028041907-19092007-20092107-21092207-22092307-23091909-19112009-20112109-21112209-22112309-23111911-20012011-21012111-22012211-23012311-2401玉米基差现货东北价格偏弱近期售粮较为积极增加市场供应主要靠发北港和地区内深加工养殖企业铁路发运价格偏高发运量有限大型收购主体控制成本收购到货量一般但收购意向较低深加工潮粮多收购至安全线收购重心向干粮转移华北价格维持窄幅调整农户售粮节奏平稳局部有东北货源补充深加工企业看量调价保持低库存饲料企业按需采购销区饲料企业观望情绪强滚动补库为主基差近期基差呈现季节性回落期货与现货当前平水玉米01基差玉米05基差玉米09基差400400400300300300200200200100100100000-100-100-100-200-200-200-300-300-30021384157769461779513283348213225320413425519531612624718730811823916928113129613625719731812824917929114115127220315327420101111121112131415161718110101022111511271221101110231116112812101222锦州港-1901锦州港-2001锦州港-2101锦州港-1905锦州港-2005锦州港-2105锦州港-1909锦州港-2009锦州港-2109锦州港-2201锦州港-2301锦州港-2205锦州港-2305锦州港-2209锦州港-2309玉米03基差玉米07基差玉米11基差60060060040040020040020002000-2000-200-400-600-200-400-800-600-1000-400-800-1200-600-1000-800-1200-10004151617181911011111211121121112131415161718191101锦州港-1903锦州港-2003锦州港-2103锦州港-1907锦州港-2007锦州港-2107锦州港-1911锦州港-2011锦州港-2111锦州港-2203锦州港-2303锦州港-2207锦州港-2307锦州港-2211锦州港-231105淀粉价差5-9价差有所上翘但反弹高度恐有限淀粉1-5价差淀粉5-9价差淀粉9-1价差10020020015050150100100050050-50-500-100-100-50-150-150-200-100-200-250-15015263139-25042211012910934112451245711312112968214222723173258341041842621710172251025312111032011183281126413121242112204291228515523531616624710718726811819617181911011111218271901-19052001-20052101-21052201-22052301-23051905-19092005-20092105-21092205-22092305-23091809-19011909-20012009-21012109-22012209-2301淀粉1-3价差淀粉3-5价差淀粉5-7价差804001006030050402002000100-50-200-40-100-100-60-200-80-150-100-300-20091961327911916921926101106115125111118126110117124131214221228111811512212925212219226343113183254148415422429101110161021102610311110111511201125113012101215122012251115112211291213122012271901-19032001-20032101-21032201-22032301-23031903-19052003-20052103-21052203-22052303-23051905-19072005-20072105-21072205-22072305-2307淀粉7-9价差淀粉9-11价差淀粉11-1价差15012020010010015080501006050040-50200-1000-50-150-20-100-40-200-150-60-250-80-200-300-100-250063138315322329454124194265351051752453167614621628515851552252965612619626737107177247318781482182871787157227298581281982692999169239301071014102110281907-19092007-20092107-21092207-22091909-19112009-20112109-21112209-22111911-20012011-21012111-22012211-2301淀粉基差现货玉米淀粉价格整体表现小幅上扬趋势低价成交放量目前原料玉米供应充裕生产企业开机率持续升高淀粉供应端充裕终端消费仍处于恢复阶段在副产品价格持续回落的过程中玉米淀粉价值或将回归基差期货价格波动较现货更大当前现货仍小幅升水05淀粉01基差淀粉05基差淀粉09基差100010001000800800800600600600400400400200200200000-200-200-200-400-400-400-60021384157769461779513283348213225320413425519531612624718730811823916928113129613625719731812824917929114115127220315327420101111121112131415161718110101022111511271221101110231116112812101222潍坊-1901潍坊-2001潍坊-2101潍坊-2201潍坊-2301潍坊-1905潍坊-2005潍坊-2105潍坊-2205潍坊-2305潍坊-1909潍坊-2009潍坊-2109潍坊-2209潍坊-2309淀粉03基差淀粉07基差淀粉11基差150015001200100010001000800600500500400200000-500-500-200-400-1000-1000-600-800-1500-10004151617181911011111211121121112131415161718191101潍坊-1903潍坊-2003潍坊-2103潍坊-2203潍坊-2303潍坊-1907潍坊-2007潍坊-2107潍坊-2207潍坊-2307潍坊-1911潍坊-2011潍坊-2111潍坊-2211潍坊-231107淀粉-玉米现米粉价差-绥化元吨1200淀粉-玉米价差保持平稳仍处于200元吨出头100080060040020001148566371991151292122263113254225206177157298128269231071141221021111812161230201820192020202120222023米粉价差-公主岭元吨米粉价差-潍坊元吨1200120010001000800800600600400400200200004899115663715611486371991152123115206177158121071141292263254227298269231221293113254226177298129231141152122265207158261071221118121610211230111812161230102120182019202020212022202320182019202020212022202308淀粉-玉米期盘面淀粉-玉米价差波动剧烈价差重新扩大的可能增加淀粉-玉米01价差淀粉-玉米05价差淀粉-玉米09价差60070065060050060055040050050045030040040020030035030010020025001002006177159535541369287333884821384157769410161362511671973181282411791712992921022211431732941042251611552812762122071531572732782042021322532041342551953161262471873081182391692811312910131025111811301212122410111023111611281210122210101022111511271221190120012101220123011905200521052205230519092009210922092309淀粉-玉米03价差淀粉-玉米07价差淀粉-玉米11价差800700800700700600600600500500500400400400300300300200200200100100100001636899255749634536881142949118130211223318330716728821914926108121411423517529610622825116128316421620813918930115221328515527122510204151617181911011111211121121310121024112912111117122319032003210322032303190720072107220723071911201121112211231109玉米淀粉仓单玉米仓单略有回落淀粉仓单回落加速但仍处于高位玉米仓单变化张玉米淀粉仓单变化张18000025000160000140000200001200001500010000080000100006000040000500020000001148566371991148566371991151292122263113254225206177157298128269231071141221151292122263113254225206177157298128269231071141221021111812161230102111181216123020172018201920202021202220232017201820192020202120222023吉林云天营口百丰达孚锦州中粮贸易大连象屿仓库中粮贸易维维股份嘉吉投资浙江农发厦门象屿陕西粮农河北粮产京粮粮贸锦州港锦阳锦州良运港北良港中储辽宁总计化泰仓储库中孚库锦象库玉米仓单数量2003500700045210872765943501183200161271540213819300121656999本周增减0000-45000009300000000-357中粮生化北安象屿富锦象屿仓库山东中谷山东福洋诸城兴贸松原嘉吉辽宁益海山东福宽玉峰实业龙凤玉米黑龙江昊天益海富裕京粮龙江总计龙江生化生化淀粉仓单数量1400950540250000065012405182100250012808638本周增减-34000-1000-20000-150-100-1000250012802790010CFCT持仓净多单CFTC净多单小幅增长美玉米上周先跌后涨承压承压CFTC非商业净多头变化内外玉米价格对比60000085031008003000500000750290040000070028006502700300000600260020000055025005002400100000450230004002200-100000-200000-300000CBOT玉米大连玉米2019-07-092020-07-092021-07-092022-07-09011进口利润目前进口季节性波动春节前后进口量较少美玉米出口至中国吨1200000中国玉米月度进口对比吨玉米淀粉月度进口对比千克4000000300000010000003500000250000030000008000002000000250000060000020000001500000150000010000004000001000000500000500000200000001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月00901100111011201010102010301040105010601070108012018201920202021202220172018201920202021202218191920202121222223美玉米出口至中国吨玉米到岸完税价及利润变化2500000038006003600400200000003400200320030000150000002800-2002600-4001000000024002200-60050000002000-800009011001110112010101020103010401050106010701080101218191920202121222223美西完税价美墨完税价美西利润美墨利润美玉米作物生长报告美玉米种植进度4月开始美玉米出芽率4月下旬开始美玉米优良率5月底开始美玉米抽丝率6月底开始1001009010090909085808080807070706075506060704050503065404020601030300552020第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周101050周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周周123456780091011121314151617181920212223第第第第第第第第第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第第第第第第第第第第第第第第第五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值美玉米鼓粒率7月下旬开始美玉米干粒率8月初开始美玉米成熟率8月下旬开始美玉米收割进度9月中旬开始1001001001009090909080808080707070706060606050505050404040403030303020202020101010100000第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第12周第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第1周第2周第3周第4周第5周第6周第7周第8周第9周第10周第11周第12周五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值五年区间202020212022五年均值013玉米售粮进度全国售粮进度东北地区售粮进度120120100100808060604040202000142538414953142538414953111119123112120128213221229316324417425511519527111119123112120128213221229316324417425511519527111711251211121912271117112512111219122716171718181919202021212222231617171818191920202121222223全国售粮进度为66较上期增加4较去年同期增加4东北售粮进度68环比增加4与去年同期持平014港口企业库存北方四港库存万吨广东港内贸库存万吨广东港外贸库存万吨55016014050014012045012010040010035080803006060250402004015020201000011111148484856565663636371717199999911511511512912912921221221222622622631131131132532532542242242252052052061761761771571571572972972981281281282682682692392392310710710711411411412212212210211021102111181118111812161216121612301230123020172018201920202021202220232017201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023主要深加工企业玉米库存万吨广东福建玉米淀粉物理库存万吨主要企业淀粉库存万吨7505000016014065045000120400005501004503500080300006035040250002502020000150015000114856637199114856637199115129212226311325422520617715729812826923107114122115129212226311325422520617715729812826923107114122102111181216123010211118121612302018-08-242019-08-242020-08-242021-08-242022-08-2420192020202120222023广东四港福建四港201820192020202120222023北方四港库存季节性上行广东港内贸库存季节性回落广东港外贸库存低位波动深加工企业库存持续上升已达到历史平均水平015玉米淀粉物理库存大幅增长主要企业淀粉保持平稳玉米淀粉产量全国69家样本企业玉米淀粉产量变化万吨山东24家样本企业玉米淀粉产量万吨401635141230102586204152010112936416571899411412722231941442751052361871472782291793011812411233749516376881013102611211217123011212321422531832942051252361462571772881983091092110211412710131024111511261218122920202021202220232020202120222023玉米淀粉产量继续季节性回升当前创同期新高主产区山东玉米淀粉产量季节性回升创历史新高016玉米加工消费深加工企业玉米消费量持续增长其中酒精消费刷出新高主要深加工企业玉米消费量万吨玉米淀粉企业玉米消费量万吨13075701206511060551005090454080357030111129364148566563717189949911412711512922221222631931132541442742251052352061861771471572772982281282691793092310711811412412210131026102111211118121712161230123020202021202220232020202120222023玉米酒精企业玉米消费量万吨氨基酸企业玉米消费量万吨452440222035183016251412201015801729364111657189942936411165718994222319414427510523917930118124114127618714727822222319414427510523917930118124114127618714727822101310261121121712301013102611211217123020202021202220232020202120222023饲料生猪饲料企业库存天数4341全国饲料企业玉米库存季节性回升但远低于历史水平393735本周生猪出栏均价重新回落全国均价达到1572元公斤环比下跌632333129上周配合饲料价格回落整体重心下移2725112936416571899411412722231941442751052361871472782291793011812410131026112112171230202120222023玉米与生猪价格对比元吨配合饲料价格元公斤3000300004202950280002900260004002850240003802800220002750200003602700180002650160003402600140003202550120002500100003002021-03-102021-08-102021-10-102022-01-102022-02-102022-03-102022-08-102022-10-102023-01-102021-04-102021-05-102021-06-102021-07-102021-09-102021-11-102021-12-102022-04-102022-05-102022-06-102022-07-102022-09-102022-11-102022-12-102023-02-102021-10-072021-11-072021-12-072022-01-072022-02-072022-03-072022-04-072022-06-072022-08-072022-09-072022-11-072023-01-072023-02-072022-05-072022-07-072022-10-072022-12-07玉米锦州港国标二等价商品猪出栏价育肥猪配合饲料蛋鸡配合饲料肉鸡配合饲料018加工利润玉米制淀粉利润玉米制乙醇利润2002000150150010010005050000-50-500-100-1000-150-1500-2000-2002020-03-052020-05-052020-07-052020-09-052020-11-052021-01-052021-03-052021-05-052021-07-052021-09-052021-11-052022-01-052022-03-052022-05-052022-07-052022-09-052022-11-052023-01-05河北黑龙江吉林山东黑龙江吉林河南玉米制淀粉利润亏损当前亏损扩大玉米制乙醇利润亏损扩大019