周观点
　　出行:开工后市内出行较旺，国内航班量已修复至高位。本地出行高线城市开工后地铁客运量较快回暖，一线城市北上广深截至2023.3.2分别恢复至2019年同期88%/98%/99%/147%，开工后强度明显高于年前。城市交通拥堵指数呈现类似趋势，截至3.3，33个样本城市中28个已超2019年同期水平，其中北上广深截分别恢复至2019年同期107%/111%/110%/109%。民航班次恢复看，截至2023.3.2，国内/国际客运航班量为2019年同期98%/16%，国内已修复至较高水平，国际持续回暖中。
　　餐饮:穗步上修中、休闲餐代表品牌表现更优，瑞幸22年大幅扭亏，持续关注上市公司UE深度调优后成果释放。截至2023.2.28，代表火锅品牌全国流水累计恢复至22年、21年同期102%/73%，分城市线一线/二线/三线及以下城市截止2023.3.2分别较22年同期累计恢复97%/102%/104%。截至2.28,代表休闲餐连锁品牌全国同店订单累计恢复至22年同期107%，2月以来维持在105%以上水平，表现较优。我们高频跟踪部分代表连锁餐饮品牌数据，1~2月考虑节日错位因素采用年初以来累计恢复度指标。重点上市公司，瑞幸22年营收132.9亿元/+66.9%，22Q4营收为36.95亿元/+51.9%;2022全年经营利润11.56亿元/+314.5%，22Q4经营利润3.13亿元/+359.3%;2022全年Non-GAAP净利润10.48亿元/+1055.1%，22Q4 Non-GAAP净利润1.67亿/+511.4%，大幅实现扭亏转盈。截至2022年末，瑞幸咖啡门店数为8214家，同比增长36.4%，门店规模进一步扩张。
　　酒旅:酒旅恢复向好，宋城西安、杭州、张家界千古情景区恢复开园。携程商旅APP春节后第四周(2.21-2.27)周均DAU较22年/21年春节后第四周分别+29%/18%，商旅需求回升速度较快。我们追踪了上市公司主要布局的经济型至中高档酒店，根据STR，2023.2.19~2.25RevPAR同比+44%(0CC+20pct、ADR+20%)，2023.2.12~2.18(开工后第三周）RevPAR对比22年开工后第三周+43%(O0CC+13pct、ADR+19%)。3月4日起，宋城演艺西安、杭州、张家界千古情景区重新开园，其中杭州周末3.4、3.5分别安排6、5场，西安周末初步安排3场/天，张家界周末为2场/天
　　数据及公告跟踪
　　上周(开盘时间2023/2/27~2023/3/3)沪深300、恒生指数分别+1.71%、+2.79%;社会服务(申万)+2.41%，细分来看，餐饮A股、港股指数分别+2.35%、+8.73%，酒店A股、港股指数分别+3.33%、+2.58%，景区指数+3.98%，人力服务指数+1.82%。板块对比来看，社会服务板块上周涨幅在30个申万一级行业板块中位列第7。
　　投资建议
　　2023年3月5日，国务院总理李克强作政府工作报告，指出着力扩大国内需求;把恢复和扩大消费摆在优先位置;多渠道增加城乡居民收入;稳定大宗消费，推动生活服务消费恢复。疫情以来线下服务类消费受场景缺失制约，住宿和餐饮业GDP在GDP总量中占比从2019年的1.81%下降至2022年的1.48%，承压较为严重但修复空间大，建议:1）本地社交需求有望持续修复，一方面2023年收入端正常化后部分餐企降本增效后经营杠杆正向效应释放、单店盈利水平有望显著改善，另一方面餐饮回归品牌化成长路径，全年维度推荐修复弹性+成长性兼备标的。2）酒店行业过去三年供给端出清+升级+龙头集中，新增供给存在时滞情况下，预计未来6~9个月有望迎来供需共振窗口，头部连锁占据核心区位、品牌力产品力综合较优，能更好享受行业供给出清红利。3）旅游随消费意愿、能力回暖有望低基数下强势修复，更看好体验优质，同时具备存量修复+增量释放的标的。
　　本周投资组合:呷哺呷哺、九毛九、华住集团、宋城演艺、复星旅游文化。
　　风险提示
　　疫情修复时长不确定性;门店拓展不及预期;成本上升风险;数据统计结果与实际情况偏差风险。
　　

研究报告全文：2023年03月05日买入维持评级社会服务业行业研究行业周报证券研究报告国金证券研究所分析师苏晨执业S1130522010001联系人叶思嘉suchengjzqcomcnyesijiagjzqcomcn政府报告指出推动生活服务消费恢复-012345678961AB-CDEFGH5IJIKLKLIMNO45IJPQRSTTUVPTUVPPUVWXU-YZ6Q8abcdefghij-H5KLK-KKkl9mITk2nIJPQRSop-qmDEFGHMNO45IJPQRSJXUVUVJUVJPU8r0sO4t-H5IJIKLKLI-Vu01vIJPQRSPTUVwU-23456op-uxyABm8zE3mzf-IIQ-xyEGZ8H5IJIKLILIT-oO45IIQIQRSJIUVXKU-MCVVHIJIKLKLIMNIIQRSO4PXUVJIUVJWU8H5ILITzRO45IIQRSJXU-IxJUEop-f86Mzd-I7QO4Zc8E-IIQKILPVwwLPU-IIWvKwLPVLPUIJIIQLwVKWLU-IIWKLKVKPLKUIJIIQJLWTVJLU-IIWLwXVLWU-f8H5IJIIQ-dvTIW-RKwLWU-C8O4-O48ILIILIXIIQVIQMNIPUVTU-AZ8E-5m6-0123-IJIKLILPILI3453RWWU6788IJ93IJU-IJIKLILIILT3453IIQWKU6788K93PU8KW-A-qmKLWKLMNBwC-BKCVD-vICVDEEFGIJIKVIVIXIJIKVKVKHGKJJIJcdMNLXUILXPUKLMNOPILWU-QMt-zRSRcdMNILKUTLXKU-RSRcdMNKLKKUILTU-cdKLPTU-TUMNcdLTIU8VWt-KLMNVWEXKJkOPCYZVWm7X8IJIKQK-NYabcade-cfUgO4hijkl7mnopqrsrtuvij-wxJyMNijO48zMNgijC-hzZ1mIJPQLTU5IJIIQLWTU-v34G-9Kxy34-CIJIKQtMz9op-CzA-QZw348IZQYm-AF-wPk-7UU-Z8KijUABdYj34-t-RF13418948z34FuS9Edu8bcdecwxJyMNijO4-LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWLbcadecwxJyMNijO4-utzALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWLI-01234567LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWLKzE3mzf-LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWO4xy-LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLTIALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLPKELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLKWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLK1O4ZUIJPLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWIabcdO4ZUIJPLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLK01O4ZUIJP-A5IJIKVKVILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLWu01O4ZUIJP-A5IJIKVKVILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLS01O4ZUIJP-A5IJIKVKVILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLw01O4ZUIJP-A5IJIKVKVILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLXRoO4ZA5IJIKVJIVITLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLwTMRoO4ZA5IJIKVJKVJILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLwPRO4ZA5IJIKVJIVITLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLwJzRO4ZA5IJIKVJIVITLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLw67dA5IJIKVKVILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLwI67dA5IJIKVKVILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLwKLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLXWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLXLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLXwLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLXXdLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLXTRLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLXPLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLTIJLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLTI-5m6Z3453A5IJIKVJIVILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLTII-5m6Z3A5IJIKVJIVILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLTIK01O4ZUIJP-A5IJIKVKVILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLTIW01O4ZUIJPA5IJIKVKVILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLTI01O4ZUIJPA5IJIKVKVILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLPIw01O4ZUIJPA5IJIKVKVILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLPIXCsA5IJIKVKVWLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLPIITEVWXLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLJIPEzVWXjLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLJKJEVWXjLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLJKEVWXjLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLJKIETUMNVWXjLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLJKKEZXBLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLKWEzZXLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLKEZXLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLKwEZXLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLIKXETUMNkRXLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLIKTEZtLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLIKPEZLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLIWJELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLKK1LbcadecwxJyMNijO4-utzA0IJIKQZABij2u-g--IJIKQ-v0zbu1ij2u93-VWO4s45vC6-9ijl7ij-8z99-nb8SO4Md2CSABfCx-ASDELmSAgZFGfuYHI834sZF1tJKLM-qmN34VWlZFuhHI8IJIKQK-NYabcade-cfU8gO4hijkl7m8nopqrsrt8uvij-wxJyMNijO48zMNgijC-hzZ1mIJPQLTU5IJIIQLWTU-v8vzvJyMNij34G89Kxy34-CIJIKQtMz9op-CzA-QZw34-4O8IZQYm-AF-wPk-7UU-Z-QZwPQam6-SRSvTO4UQLVW8KijUABdYj34-t-RF1341-w48948LI-0123456791dt-CDEFGH5IJIKLKLIMNO45IJPQRSTTUVPTUVPPUVWXU-YZ6Q8abcd1O4Zefghij-H5KLK-KKkl9mITk2nIJPQRSop-qmDEFGHMNO45IJPQRSJXUVUVJUVJPUXCO4Z681O4ZUIJP上海北京广州深圳成都南京武汉西安苏州郑州重庆长沙合肥石家庄昆明厦门南宁东莞2023-03-0298889914715388119140156184136382242162128511156882023-03-01968910115115586115138152179136371236162130527159922023-02-28979010115115486113137153176135362234162130528159932023-02-27979010215215386113136154174132363232161128529156932023-02-26979110215215286112134155172131358226159128528154932023-02-25989110315314986111129153172129351221158127524151922023-02-24999110515614787111127156170127356218151127517148932023-02-231009110715814888114127158178127370221152128502154942023-02-2210393108159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