研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary2Mar2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报MarketswereactivewhileskewedtosellthismorningAsianIGspaceopened1-3bpstightthenwidened1-3bpsBenchmarknameslikeTENCNTGlennKoCFA高志和alsowidenedc2bpstillnoonSOEPerpandAT1downc02505ptLGFV85236576235sectorwasoverallstableglennkocmbicomhkYLLGSPResilientFY22resultsandbusinessmodelmaintainBuyonYLLGSP24and26SeebelowCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩ChinaEconomyPMIbeatexpectationsaseconomycontinuestorecover85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkCMBIforecastsChinasGDPgrowthmayreach54in2023and49in2024SeebelowJerryWang王世超Tradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点85237618919jerrywangcmbicomhkYesterdayAsiaIGspacehadabusydaywithfocusonnewissuefrontKBANK28swerepricedatT125andwastradedactivelytoclose10bpstighteratT115SecondaryflowswererelativelyquietinthemorningwhileactivitiescamebackalivepostlunchafterChinaannouncedastronger-than-expectedFebmanufacturingPMImarkinghighestprintsince2012ChinesefinancialsoutperformedaswesawbuyersonT2sleasingpapersBCHINACCBcurveswere4-8bpstighterBOCAVIpaperswereunchangedto5bpstighterintocloseChinaSOEsTMTswerealsofirmBABA31sTENCNT30spapersweretightened3-5bpstoT133T156arearespectivelyBBBnameslikeLENOVO32sMEITUA30stightened2bpsElsewherewesawbetterbuyingonKHFCEIBKORKDBversusbettersellingonPOHANGHYUELEPOHANG28sprintedatT1284bpswiderthanlastcloseInIGpropertiesLNGFORswidened10bpsChinaHYpropertyspacewasroughlystableCOGARDsopened1-2ptsloweronthebackofthedevelopersannouncementthatChairmanYeungKwokKeungresignedbutthenrecovered05-1ptCSCHCNsweremarked1-2ptslowertheotherhandDALWAN25-26smoved15-25ptshigherYLLGSPCHINSC23s24swereup05-1ptCENCHI23sweremarked15ptshigherOnIndustrialsWESCHICHIOILwereup025ptInMacaugamingspaceMGMCHIsWYNMACswerebidup05-1ptIndiaspaceADANIG24sbouncedanother25ptsto85levelafterfalling5ptsto80levellastweekVEDLNsgained15-3ptsacrossthecurvefollowingVRLannouncedthatitwasinadvancestagesoftyingupsyndicateloansandbilateralfacilitiesVRLalsostatedthatitwasfullyconfidentofmeetingitsupcomingmaturitiesinthequarterendingJun23withthefundraisingplansInIndonesianspaceLMRTSPLPKRIJpairswereindicatedanother05-1ptlowerIntheLGFVPerpAsiaAT1spacemarketsentimentwasveryrisk-onafteralacklusterFebFlowsweredominatedbyswitchingdemandandskewedtobetterbuyingOnnewissuefrontactivitieswereveryactiveinnewUSD2bnPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk12Mar2023HSBC8PerpThisAT1closedatintra-dayhigh1011leveldespiteafewroundsofinstitutionalprofittakinginAsiaandEuropethankstotherelentlessdemandfromregionalPBsthatdigestedpilesafterpilesofloosepapersOntheotherhandnewNANYAN735PerpwithUSD300mnissuesizeperformedsoftlyNewNANYANAT1wasinitiallytradeddownto995butsubsequentbuyingfromPBandChineseNBRMdrovethebondbackuptoatouchbelowparAwayfromprimarysideSOEPerpsandAsiaAT1swerelargelystablebutNon-SOEPerpsmetbettersellingagainHKFFLperpslikeNANFUNCKPHREGHPerpsloweredanother1-2ptsonFMsellingdespitesomeshortcoveringflowsandAMbuyingElsewhereLGFVsenjoyedaroundofliftingintheearlymorningledbythehigh-yieldinghigh-betanameslikeGXFINGTLINVTThelikesofHNYUZISIDEVEfollowedthethemeandedged025-075pthigherShandongnamesweremixedSHUGRPQDHTCO24swerequoted025pthigherJNUCGC26wastradeddown1ptat8889levelretracingfromasqueezylevelandbackto6areaLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeVEDLN91404232668230LMRTSP714061924691-22VEDLN61808092468326REGH612PERP620-20ADANIG43809082484625CSCHCN9100924855-19LIFUNG514PERP60720COGARD714040826673-15VEDLN89503112569717NANFUN5PERP750-15MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketsremainedweakonWednesdaySP-047Dow002andNasdaq-066weredraggedbytechandrealestatesectorTheUSISMPMIofFeb23is477increasingfromprevious474whilelowerthanforecastof480TheUStreasuryyieldsslightlyedgedupyesterday251030yieldsreached489427401397respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点YLLGSPResilientFY22resultsandbusinessmodelmaintainBuyMaintainBuyonYLLGSP24and26YanlordsoperatingperformanceremainsresilientinaverychallengingoperatingenvironmentThecompanyhasbeenprudentlymanagingitsoperationsfocusingonthepenetrationinto20-plusT12citiesinYRDandGBAwhereeconomicfundamentalhasbeensolidandpopulationinflowhasbeenpositiveItsoperatingscaleprofitabilityandleveragehavethereforebeenstableWeconsiderYanlordoneofthesurvivorsofthesectorwithannormalizingfundingaccessYLLSPswere5-8ptshigherYTDWemaintainBuyonYLLGSP24and26andconsiderthesearelow-betaanddecentcarryplaysThatsaidweturnedNeutralonYLLSP23asbondsmaturinginlessthan2monthstimearealreadyofferedaboveparOSUSDYTMofferOfferpriceMaturitymnYLLGSP67504232357100123Apr23350YLLGSP680227249098027Feb24400YLLGSP50520269687820May26500SourceBloombergResilientFY22inaverychallengingmarketenvironment22Mar2023InFY22Yanlordsrevenuedeclined176toRMB287bnwhilePBTdeclined298toRMB54bnreflectedthelowerGFAdeliveredandlossresultingfromthewithdrawalofSZBantianprojectThelowerGFAdelivered17mnsqmincludingJVsandassociatesInFY22down163morethanoffsetthehigherrecognizedASPRMB363ksqmInFY22vs308ksqminFY21AsperthecompanyitsnetcoreprofitwasRMB21bninFY22down14yoylargelyinlinewiththerevenuedeclineYanlordhasbeenabletomaintainahigher-than-averagemarginlevelInFY22itsgrossmarginincreasedto270from256butloweredfrom356in1H22Thehighmarginin1H22wasattributabletothedeliveriesof3higb-marginprojectsinT12citiesShenzhenNanjingandSuzhouOverthemediumtermYanlordexpectsitsgrossmargintomaintainat25-30ContractsalestargetofRMB45-50bninFY23vsRMB681bnachievedinFY22InFY22YanlordscontractsaleswereRMB681bnconsolidationandattributableratioof59up143Itisoneoftheonly2outof38developersunderourradarreportedcontractsalesgrowthinFY22despiteitssalesfellshortofthetargetofRMB75bnTheresilientoperatingperformancereflecteditsfocusonhighertiercitieswithstrongeconomicfundamentalInFY23itplansforsaleableresourcesofRMB80bnandsetscontractsalestargetatRMB45-50bnattributableratioof50Thisrepresents266-339yoydeclineincontractsalesandasell-throughrateof56-63vsourestimateofc57inFY22inFY23Weconsiderthesalestargetconservativeinviewofthehistoricalsell-throughrateeconomicrecoveryofChinaandlargerroomforfurtherpolicyrelaxationinT12citiesLargelystablefinancialprofilewithrefinancingplaninplaceYanlordsnetdebtsincreased164toRMB252bninFY22NonethelessitsfinancialprofileislargelystablewithnetgearingcashSTdebtsandadjliabassetratioswere55612xand660asatDec22comparedwith49423xand665asatDec21and58418xand677asatJun22respectivelyYanlordwillcontinuethegradualtransformationtoamoreasset-lightmodelbutweexpectthecompanytobemoreactiveinlandacquisitionsthisyearThatsaidweestimateitsnetgearingratiotomoderatelydeclinefromthecurrentlevelbyFYE23AsperthecompanyoutofitstotalcashonhandofRMB207bnasatDec22RMB85bnwasinescrowaccountandcRMB25bncUSD370mnwasatparentcompanylevelThecashatparentcompanyshouldbesufficienttocovertherepaymentofYLLGSP675042323TheosamountofthebondsshouldcUSD330mnafterthebuy-backofUSD20mnClickhereforfullreportChinaEconomyPMIbeatexpectationsaseconomycontinuestorecoverChinasPMIfurtherreboundedasoutputnewordersandbusinesssentimentallcontinuetoimproveTheeconomyremainedgoodonitswaytorecoverExportsorderindexalsoreboundedprobablybecauseoverseasdemandandinflationwasmoreresilientthanexpectedanddomesticsupplychainfurtherimprovedHoweverwecontinuetoexpectChinasexportsofgoodsmaydropby35in2023afterrising7in2022duetooverseasrecessionriskanddisinflationtrendImportsvolumemaycontinuetoimprovebutadisinflationmayrestrainthegrowthofimportsgrowthChinasimportsofgoodsareexpectedtorise05in2023aftergrowing11in2022Chinasreflationismoderateasex-factorypricescontinuedtomildlyriseChinasGDPgrowthmayreach54in2023and49in2024comparedto3in2022ThePBOCseemsmorecautiousinRRRLPRcutsinneartermduetostrongnewcreditandbetter-than-expectedrecoveryinhousingsalesin1Q23Butwecannotruleouttheirpossibilityin2H23asChinasgrowthrateslowsandoverseasrecessionriskincreasesChinascreditpolicyshouldremainaccommodativeasthe2YCAGRofGDPremainsbelowpotentialgrowthandthereflationismoderate32Mar2023PMIfurtherreboundedinFebruaryamidtheresumptionoffactoryproductionandbusinessactivitiesafterCNYbreakPMIinmanufacturingsawoneofthehighestmonthlyimprovementsindecadesasitrosefrom501inJanuaryto526inFebruaryTheindexesinfurnituremetalproductandelectricalequipmentincreasedtoabove60inFebruaryindicatingstrongrecoverymomentuminthosesectorsMeanwhilePMIinconstructionclimbedfrom564inJanuaryto602inFebruaryreflectingafaster-than-expectedrecoveryinconstructionactivityForservicesectorPMIroseto556inFebruaryfrom540inJanuaryastheindexesinroadtransportationairtransportationpostalservicecateringaccommodationandleasingbusinessactivitiesallrosetotheexpansionaryterritoryNeworderandbusinesssentimentcontinuedtoimproveNeworderindexinmanufacturingconstructionandservicerespectivelyrosefrom509574and516inJanuaryto541621and547inFebruaryBusinessexpectationsimprovedinmanufacturingandservicesectorsyetdeclinedinconstructionsectorBusinesssentimentindexesinagriculturalprocessingtextilegeneralequipmentspecialequipmentandautosincreasedtoabove60inFebruaryindicatingbullishexpectationsinthosesectorsExportsandimportsindexesimprovedasoverseaseconomywasbetterthanexpectedandsupplychainfurtherimprovedExportsorderindexandimportsindexrespectivelyclimbedfrom461and467inJanuaryto524and513inFebruarymarkingthefirsttimeforthetwoindexestoreboundtoabove50sinceJune2021Theexportsmayimproveinneartermyetshouldremainweakin1H23Weexpecttheexportstodrop35in2023afterrising7in2022duetooverseasdemandslowdownanddisinflationprocessTheimportsshouldimproveasdomesticdemandgraduallyreboundsafterthereopeningHoweverthedisinflationmayrestrainimportsvaluegrowththisyearWeexpectimportstorise05in2023aftergrowing11in2022Chinahadmildreflationpressureasex-factorypricesandmaterialcostsmoderatelyincreasedEx-factorypriceindexesinmanufacturingconstructionandservicerosefrom487528and475inJanuaryto512536and504inFebruaryMeanwhilematerialcostpressureremainedlowasthecostindexinmanufacturingmildlyincreasedwhilethatinservicesectordeclinedTheex-factorypriceindexinsteelproductgeneralequipmentandspecialequipmentrosetoabove60showingnoticeablereflationpressureinthosesectorsEmploymentconditioncontinuedtoimproveyetremainedweakinservicesectorEmploymentindexesinmanufacturingconstructionandservicerosefrom477531and455inJanuaryto502586and487inFebruaryTheemploymentconditionremainedweakinservicesectorastheindexwasstillbelow50WeexpecttheemploymentindexestocontinuetoimprovesupportingarecoveryofconsumptionthisyearChinaeconomyisonthewaytorecoverwithsomefluctuationsintherecoverypaceThePMIinFebruaryindicatesChinaeconomyiswellonitswaytorecoverasoutputdemandandsentimentcontinuestoimproveDuetolowbaseandrecoveryafterthereopeningChinasGDPgrowthisexpectedtoreboundfrom3in2022to54in2023and49in2024TheYoYgrowthratesmayseesomefluctuationswiththepeakat2Q23duetochangesinbaseeffectandrecoverypaceThecentralbankseemsmorecautiousonfurtherRRRLPRcutsinneartermduetostrongnewcreditandbetter-than-expectedrecoveryinhousingsalesin1Q23Howeverwecannotruleoutitspossibilityin2H23asChinasrecoverypaceslowsandoverseasrecessionriskincreasesChinascreditpolicyshouldremainaccommodativeasthe2YCAGRofGDPremainsbelowpotentialgrowthandthereflationisstillmoderateClickhereforfullreport42Mar2023OffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponYieldMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedTodayOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingIssueRatingChinaTaipingInsuranceHoldingUSD-PNC5675-MSF-BBBHSBCUSD-6NC511NC10T210245245A3A-ANorinchukinBankUSD-21NC205yrT140-145A1A-SumitomoCorpUSD-5yrT160Baa1BBB-NewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere84creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB66bnAsforMonth-to-date84creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB66bnraisedrepresentinga235yoyincreaseMacaugamingrevenueforFeb23rose331yoytoMOP1032bncUSD128bntotalgamingrevenuefor2M23isMOP219bnCusd271bnup553yoyADEINAdaniGroupdeniespressrumorsthatitsecuredUSD3bnfromundisclosedsovereignwealthfundADINCOSPaffirmedAdaniInternationalContainerTerminalBBB-issueratingandstableoutlookDALWANMediareportedthatDalianWandaCommercialexpectstogetCSRCapprovalforZhuhaiHKIPOassoonasMar23GWFOODWensFoodstuffrepurchasedandcancelledUSD1253mnofGWFOOD3258102930osamountisUSD1361mnLENOVOLegendHoldingsexpectsFY22netprofitnothigherthanRMB12bndropc80yoyfromRMB576bninFY21LMRTSPLMIRThasmaderefinancingSGDloansdueinnext12monthsitspriorityCEOsaidbanksarereluctanttolendafterdowngradesMPELMelco4Q22revenuedown30oytoUSD3371mnandEBITDAisUSD68mnlossjumpedfromUSD94mngainin4Q21VNKRLEChinaVankeplanstoraisearoundUSD500mnviashareplacementfordebtrepaymentworkingcapitalCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhk52Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereport6