>> 招银国际-Country Garden (2007 HK) Mr. Yeung’s retirement not a surprise-230301
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研究报告全文：1Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketEquityResearchCompanyUpdateCountryGarden2007HKBUYMaintainMrYeungsretirementnotasurpriseTargetPriceHK1336PreviousTPHK1336Updownside457WethinkMrYeungsretirementposesnomaterialimpactonCGasthegroundCurrentPriceHK240hasbeenlaidbackin2018withMsYanbeingtheco-ChairladyandstablemanagementThetriangleMrMoDrChengandMsWuInsteadwethinkthechangemaygivecurrentmanagementmoreflexibilityforthestrategyChinaPropertySectorFundamental-wiseCGstillrecorded35YoYsalesdeclinein2M23duetolackofnewlaunchesandunderperforminglowertiercitiesHoweverwethinktheJeffreyZengMarchsalesaregoingtobebackatRMB30bnlevelflattishYoYonbackof85239163727strongsubscriptionandASPupwardtrendThiswouldhelpalleviatethemarketjeffreyzengcmbicomhkconcernonitsliquidityAsforCGslandacquisitionplanwedonotexpecttohappensosoonduetorecentcrowdedlandmarketandCGsdebtrepaymentMiaoZhangOurTPandfinancialsarecurrentlyunderview85237618910zhangmiaocmbicomhkWhatisnewBeforemarketopenon1MarCountryGardenannouncedcompanysfounderMrYeungKwokKeungproposedtoresignasChairmanBellaLiduetoagereason68yearsoldCo-ChairmanMsYangHuiyanwill85237576202becomethesoleChairladytogetherwithherChairladyroleinCGSAtthesametimeexecutiveDirectorDrChengGuangyuhasbeenappointedasabellalicmbicomhkmemberofCorporateGovernanceCommitteeOurreadnotasurpriseandnomaterialimpactStockData-FirstlythegroundhasbeenlaidfiveyearsagoMrYeunghaspromotedMktCapHKmn67436MsYangasco-ChairmanforfiveyearsinDec2018ItwasduringoneAvg3mthstoHKmn8270752wHighLowHK674100ofthepreviousdarktimeforpropertysectorandCountryGardenitselfTotalIssuedSharesmn27638inthelowertiercitiesThereforeMsYanghastheexperiencetohandleSourceBloombergpressurebasedonthepastandtherecentrecoverywouldgivehermoreboosttoleadCGShareholdingStructureYangHuiyan5261-SecondlyCGhaslongbeenworkedunderthemanagementofPingAn538professionalmanagerssystem-MrMoCEODrChengEDandMsFreefloat4201WuCFOSoMrYeungsretirementwouldfurtherhandlemorepowerSourceHKExtotheteamwhichcanensurethemoremarket-orientatedflexibilitySharePerformanceWeexpectCGsalestopickupinMarchonsolidsubscriptionBasedAbsoluteRelativeonCRICslatestdataCountryGardenhasrecordedslightMoMincreasein1-mth-259-151Febsalesbutstilldown35YoYin2M23atRMB44bnattributableItis3-mth-178-281partlyduetolackofnewlaunchesHoweverifwelookatthesales6-mth-87-7012-mth-604-545subscriptionFebissignificantlystrongerthanJanwhichwillbebookedintoSourceBloombergMarsalesThereforeweexpectMarchsalestobebackatRMB30bnlevelflattishYoYandmayseepositiveYoYgrowthinAprMayduetolowbase12-mthPricePerformanceBasedonourchannelcheckCGsprojectsarealsotestingthewatertoHK2007HKHSIrebasedincreaseASPof2-5byloweringthediscountThisisalsoagoodsign10EarningsSummaryYE31DecFY18AFY19AFY20AFY21AFY22ERevenueRMBmn379079485908462856523064667448YoYgrowthNA28-51328NetincomeRMBmn3461839550350222679754352EPSRMB161218501618121824670Mar-22Jun-22Sep-22Dec-22Mar-23YoYgrowthNA15-13-25103ConsensusEPSRMBNANANANA02SourceBloombergPEx1614162110PBx0504040303AuditorPricewaterhouseCoopersYield54636176NAROE285260200135219Netgearing496463493452518SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1ACCESSKEYTOOURREPORTSONBLOOMBERGCMBR1Mar2023BacktolandacquisitionmodeCGcurrentlyhasRMB900bnsellableresourcesinthelandbankor25yearsof2022saleswhichisnotenoughHoweverwethinkitmaynothappensosoonas1Currentlylandmarketinqualitycitiesmainlytier1-2citieshasturnedcrowdedsoitmaynotbethebesttimeforCGtobuy2ThecompanystillhasUS700mnoffshoredebttwobatchesinJulyandDecandRMB20bnonshoredebtSofinanciallyitisstillunderconstraintFigure1MajordevelopersFebsalesastrongbeatSourceCompanydataPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1Mar2023FinancialSummaryunderreviewIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecRMBmnFY18AFY19AFY20AFY21AFY22EYE31DecRMBmnFY18AFY19AFY20AFY21AFY22ERevenue379079485908462856523064667448EBIT75286925347195260626120398Propertydevelopment369405475012449341507478650320DA10441562206723871731Construction526562198779936010045Changeinworkingcapital860626566356871996068000Rental227412526840711Incometaxpaid3569827614421563721941198Hotel25504265421053866372Others1985725246178073489929446Propertymanagement1632----Netcashfromoperating2938114670216311085516515Grossprofit10247612663710090592782159108Capex168921298623232191944AssociatesJV131915454656275155500Otherincomeandgains43443288281616373740Other178141493468777308600Distributionexpenses1253316365137521531620023Netcashfrominvesting12269190905917180428044Administrativeexpenses1777719053153681516920023RDexpenses12241973264933082403Equityraised3378320---Operatingprofit75286925347195260626120398ChangeofDebts7864536100392111358623000Dividendpaid94321136916152605215204Financeexpenses1348117173063497909Other124184912276734-AssociatesJV11975108625850536120Netcashfromfinancing738322526054136129047796Exceptional173212613227-Pre-taxprofit79563989398552968949127427Netchangeincash9094420840816842009116763Cashatthebeginning137084228343248985167153230185Profitstax3102137737314112796747498Exchangedifference31519814810850Minorityinterest1392421652190961418525577Cashattheend228343248985167153146954213472Perpetual-----Pledgeddeposit1420019363164703434616743Netprofit3461839550350222679754352CashatBS242543268348183623181300230215BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY18AFY19AFY20AFY21AFY22EYE31DecFY18AFY19AFY20AFY21AFY22ENon-currentassets229944275635273653234428353150SalesmixFixedasset2342124240263452709930000Propertydevelopment974978971970974Investmentproperties1643512923156591630214500Construction1413191815AssociatesJV4665952113634417284167500Rental0101010201Intangibleassets67074514231370750Hotel0709091010Othernon-currentassets142759185614166785116816240400Propertymanagement0400000000Total10001000100010001000Currentassets13997501631517174215617139371867215Cash242543268348183623181300230215ProfitlossratiosAccountreceivable443491462215432897430400560000Grossmargin270261218177238Inventories680097867862109515810641891040000Pre-taxmargin199190155116180Othercurrentassets3361933092304783804837000Netmargin9181765181Effectivetaxrate390381367406373Currentliabilities12194061398752149295913789051568120Borrowings1260971162729624179018120000BalancesheetratiosTradeandotherpayables498821594548660293550591650000Currentratiox1112121212Contractliabilities562800646996695614709255750000Receivableday42703472341430033062Deferredtaxation3078340367395193916046800Payableday48034466520738423555Othercurrentliabilities90556912928811320Inventoryday897488171104490277467Netgearingratio496463556454518Non-currentliabilities236880289792265847268833324200Borrowings202378253331230244238904280000ReturnsOthernon-currentliabilities3450236461356032992944200ROE285260200135219ROA2121171424Shareholdersequity121330151939175102198736248045Minorityinterest52078666698190110189180000PersharedataPerpetualbond00000EPSRMB161185162122247Totalequity173408218608257003300627328045DPSRMB049057046031069BVPSRMB5617027958591126SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE31Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatestomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934andmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisresearchreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisresearchreporttoanyotherpersonForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBIGMGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBIGMGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBIGMGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBIGMGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4
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