研究报告全文：MN1Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateBeiGeneBGNEUSExpectstrongsalesin2023drivenbytheUSapprovalofzanubrutinibinCLLStrongsalesgrowthcontinuedin4Q22mainlydrivenbyzanubrutinibInTargetPriceUS290424Q22BeiGenerecordedUS339mnproductsales-3QoQ72YoYPreviousTPUS25556ZanubrutinibBTKmaintainedastrongsalesmomentumwithsalesUpDownside293increasing13QoQor101YoYtoUS176mnin4Q22drivenbytheCurrentPriceUS22463overseassalesespeciallyintheUSWithlargeindicationsofzanubrutinib1LChinaHealthcarerrCLLrecentlyapprovedintheUSandthePFSsuperiorityvsibrutinibinrrCLLexpectedtobeaddedtothelabelin2023EweforeseeremarkableJillWUCFAsalesgrowthofzanubrutinibin2023EWeexpectthesalesofzanubrutinibto85239000842jillwucmbicomhkreachUS12bninFY23E106YoYEyesontislelizumabsUSapprovalin2023for2LESCCTislelizumabPD-AndyWANG1saleswasUS102mnin4Q22comparedtoUS128mnin3Q22-2085236576288QoQ88YoYandtheQoQdeclinein4Q22wasmainlyduetoCOVID-19andywangcmbicomhkinterruptionsinChinaWhiletislelizumabisalreadytheNo1PD-L1mAbinStockDataChinaintermsofsalesrevenuewebelievetislelizumabwillfurthergainmarketMktCapUSmn233945sharewithfournewindicationsaddedtotheNRDLfromMar2023With1LGCAvg3mthstoUSmn2341PD-L1HER2-recentlyapprovedweexpecttislelizumabtobefurther52wHighLowUS2745012111approvedinChinafor1LESCCin1H23Eand1LHCCin2H23EIntheUSTotalIssuedSharesmn1041SourceFactSettheBLAoftislelizumabfor2LESCCisstillwaitingforFDAinspectionswhichweviewasoneoftheCompanysmajorcatalyststhisyearandremainpositiveShareholdingStructuretowardstheapprovalAdditionallyBeiGeneexpectstofileBLAsof1LGCandAmgen1801LESCCintheUSthisyearbasedonpositiveresultsfromglobalPh3trialsBakerBros112SourcearImprovingcostefficiencyinFY22Thegrossmarginvsproductsalesmaintainedatrendofimprovementin2022recording751766781SharePerformanceAbsoluteRelativeand783in1Q-4Qrespectivelydrivenbythegrowingproportionofhigh-1-mth-123-114marginBTKandPD-1intheproductsalesTheSGAratiovsproductsales3-mth172172alsoimprovedfrom156inFY21to101inFY22showingtheCompanys6-mth309348improvingcostefficiencyInFY22BeiGenerecordedanetlossofUS200bnSourceFactSetcomparedtoUS146bnlossinFY21whilethewideninglosswasmainlydue12-mthPricePerformancetotheUS224mnforeignexchangelossinFY22andUS485mnPD-1relatedupfrontpaymentreceivedinFY21Asofend-2022BeiGenehadacashbalanceofUS45bnwhichissufficienttofundinvestmentsinRDandcapexExpansionofearly-stageassetsBeiGeneexpectstoreleasePh2datainmultipleindicationsESCCHCCNSCLCforociperlimabTIGITin2023WelookforwardtotheoptionexecutionbyNovartisforociperlimabthisyearUS600mnpaymentifbymid-2023orUS700mnifbylate-2023ForBGB-SourceFactSet11417Bcl-2withPh2trialsinCLLandMCLongoingBeiGeneexpectstoinitiateapivotaltrialin1LCLLin2H23EAdditionallyweexpecttheCompanyRelatedreport1StrongsalesmomentummaintainedtoreleasepreliminaryPh1resultsofBGB-16673BTKCDACandBGB-A445in3Q22link11Nov2022OX40in2023ETheCompanyalsodisclosedafewearly-stagyassets2SuperiorPFSvsibrutinibinrrCLLdevelopedin-housethathaveenteredPh1trialsincludingBGB-23339TYK2furthersupportsthebest-in-classBGB-24714SMACmimeticandBGB-B167CEA4-1BBbsAbpotentialofzanubrutiniblink14Oct2022MaintainBUYConsideringtheglobalcommercializationpotentialof3Strongsalescontinuedin2Q22zanubrutinibintheoverseamarketswerevisedourDCF-basedTPfromlink8Aug2022US25556toUS29042WACC990terminalgrowthrate304PositiveontheUSBLAapprovalofEarningsSummarytislelizumabdespitethedeferrallink18Jul2022YE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25E5HarvestseasonforagloballeadingRevenueUSmn11761416234332984432biopharmacompanylink17Jun2022NetprofitUSmn141320041259542204EPSReportedUS152319431209520196RDexpensesUSmn14591641183719291929SGAexpensesUSmn9901278134213821396SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk1Mar2023Figure1QuarterlyproductsalesofBeiGene1Q194Q22USmn3503603393303053002622702402101921971801391501061209110090665758505752603001Q192Q193Q194Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22SourceCompanydataCMBIGMFigure2Zanubrutinibquarterlysales4Q194Q22USmn17618001561600140012912001041000888006660042400221618200711004Q191Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22Ex-ChinaChinaSourceCompanydataCMBIGMNoteZanubrutinibwasoriginallyapprovedinNov2019intheUSFigure3Tislelizumabquarterlysales1Q204Q22USmn1281300120011001051021000889007780075700636005450495004002930021200100001Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22SourceCompanydataCMBIGMNoteIn1Qand4Q21salesoftislelizumabwasimpactedbythenegativeadjustmentstotallingUS456mnfordistributorchannelinventorycompensationduetopricecutsoftislelizumabforadditionalindicationsincludedinNRDLPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE21Mar2023Figure4Risk-adjustedDCFvaluationDCFValuationUSmn2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031E2032E2033E2034E2035EEBIT1287553235949174425353316387942094395457046384748Taxrate001515151515151515151515EBIT1-taxrate1287553199807148321552818329735773736388539424036DA69717375777980828384858687-Changeinworkingcapital282185280171176159137761631467769-Capex100100100100100100100100100100100100100FCFF1601767107611128419742662320335443751391540064092Terminalvalue6110727817PVofenterpriseUSmnNetdebtUSmn2429EquityvalueUSmn30246NoofADSmn104DCFperADSUS29042Terminalgrowthrate30WACC990CostofEquity125CostofDebt45EquityBeta10RiskFreeRate25MarketRiskPremium100TargetDebttoAssetratio300EffectiveCorporateTaxRate150SourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure5SensitivityanalysisUSWACCTerminalgrowthrate89094099010401090404036135865321552904326401353768833765304772768525288303546931993290422651024316253359730478278022548423460203199629167267182458022700SourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure6CMBIGMestimatesrevisionNewOldDiffUSmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue234332984432236432674165-116GrossProfit189326593510189826213280017OperatingProfit12876531851365777133NANANANetprofit1259542204134467437NANANAEPSUSperADS12152201306504NANANAGrossMargin807780647921783378067806244ppt258ppt115pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure7CMBIGMestimatevsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffUSmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue23433298443222102962395461112GrossProfit1893265935101794238832525118OperatingProfit12876531851343917217NANANANetProfit1259542204128689520NANANAEPSUSperADS12152201016609NANANAGrossMargin807780647921811980648226-042ppt000ppt-305pptSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE31Mar2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecUSmnRevenue30911761416238633354467Costofgoodssold71165286460647929Grossprofit23810111129192626893538Operatingexpenses189624502919318033123326SGAexpense6009901278134213821396RDexpense129514591641183719291929Others111111Otherincome3901712811256Pre-taxprofit1618143919611225512268Incometax1825430040Minorityinterest400000Netprofit1601141320041225512228Adjustednetprofit1597141320041225512228BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecUSmnCurrentassets496176145207410837494225Cashequivalents138243763870232721022024Accountreceivables604831734856911006Inventories89243282415575813FinancialassetsatFVTPL32692242665665165165Othercurrentassets160271217217217217Non-currentassets64010321172119812271254PPE358588846877906933Deferredincometax661100000Intangibles54741414141Othernon-currentassets211287286280280280Totalassets560186466379530749775479Currentliabilities107516001469162118032077Short-termborrowings335428329329329329Accountpayables232262295447629903Taxpayable202125252525Othercurrentliabilities488888820820820820Non-currentliabilities656803527527527527Long-termborrowings184202209209209209Deferredincome022042424242Othernon-currentliabilities473381276276276276Totalliabilities173224031996214923302605Sharecapital74151119111541115411154111541Retainedearnings355349667080830688178590Otherreserves71877777777Totalshareholdersequity386962434383315826462874Minorityinterest000000Totalequityandliabilities560186466379530749765479PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE41Mar2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecUSmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation1618143919611225512268Depreciationamortization324666697173Taxpaid1825430040Others28568441292184279Netcashfromoperations128312991497144862522InvestingCapitalexpenditure118263325100100100Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments5690219117000Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term27513147156405000investmentsOthers11252144000Netcashfrominvesting31686411077100400100FinancingNetborrowings434423351000Proceedsfromshareissues423234430000Others537229370000Netcashfromfinancing5203363719000NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear62113904383387523272102Exchangedifference181469000Cashattheendoftheyear139043833875232721022024GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue2792808204685398339Grossprofitna3246117706396316PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin771860798807806792Adjnetprofitmargin51701202141551315351ReturnonequityROE66328037732517682GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx111009080706Currentratiox464835252120Receivableturnoverdays776843846846846846Inventoryturnoverdays304436733344329432443194Payableturnoverdays915554713550355035503550VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPEnanananana988PEdilutednanananana988PB58364155392611051018SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE51Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6