研究报告全文：MN1Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateWeiboWBUSGradualrevenueandmarginrecoveryinFY23TargetPriceUS2890Weiboreported4Q22financialresultson1Mar4Q22totalrevenuedeclinedbyPreviousTPUS278027YoY-20YoYonaconstantcurrencybasistoUS448mninlinewithUpDownside397ourandconsensusestimateFY22totalrevenuewasdownby19YoYtoCurrentPriceUS2068US18bnmainlyduetomacroheadwindandCOVID-19impact4Q22non-GAAPnetincomedroppedby9YoYtoUS179mnbeatingtheconsensusChinaInternetestimateofUS122mnprimarilyduetoeffectiveexpensecontrolandreversalSaiyiHECFAofUS588mncompensationexpensesFY22non-GAAPnetincomedropped85239161739by25YoYtoUS540mnManagementarepositiveonFY23addemandhesaiyicmbicomhkrecoveryespeciallyinautomobileluxurygamesandtravelindustriesdrivenbythemacroandpolicytailwindWeexpectYoYadrevenuegrowthtoturnWentaoLUluwentaocmbicomhkpositivefrom2Q23Eonwardsandtotaladrevenuetogrow9YoYinFY23WerevisedupFY23FY24non-GAAPnetincomeby45onbetteradYeTAOdemandrecoveryandoperatingefficiencygainWeslightlyraiseourTPby4franktaocmbicomhktoUS289on12x2023EPEMaintainBUYStockDataExpectadbusinesspressuretolastinto1Q23AdrevenuedeclinedbyMktCapUSmn4863229YoYtoUS393mnin4Q223Q222Q22-27-23YoYprimarilydueAvg3mthstoUSmn20552wHighLowUS27421071tosoftaddemandincosmetice-commerceindustriesaswellasTotalIssuedSharesmn2352heighteneddifficultiesinsalesexecutionin4Q22NonethelessseveralSourceFactSetverticalsdeliveredresilientadrevenuegrowthin4Q221foodbeverageShareholdingStructureadrevenuedeliveredYoYgrowththankstotheWorldCupevent2Sina401automobileadrevenuebookedYoYgrowthduetoseveralsuccessfulnewAlibaba287carlaunchesonWeibo3handsetadrevenuesawadouble-digitYoYgrowthSourceCompanydatadespiteweaksalesofoverallhansetmarketVASrevenuedroppedby12SharePerformanceYoYtoUS57mnin4Q22ToexpandmonetizationmethodsWeibotappedAbsoluteRelativeintotheaestheticmedicinee-commercemarketthroughitslivestreaminge-1-mth-91-81commercecapabilitiesWeibostotalaestheticmedicinee-commerceGMV3-mth297299doubledYoYin20226-mth0031SourceFactSetImprovingvideocontentandadecosystemWeibosMAUsgrew2YoY12-mthPricePerformanceto586mninDec2022OnthevideofrontthenumberofvideoaccountsthatgeneratedvideosandtheeffectivevideoviewsgrewbydoubledigitYoYinDecember2022Theeffectiveviewsinthevideofeedsalsogrewby50YoYinDecemberThedevelopingvideocontentecosystemsupportedtheincreaseinrevenuecontributionfromvideoadsin2022ExpectoperatingefficiencyrecoverstoFY1920levelGPMdeclinedby3pptYoYto763in4Q22mainlyduetocontentinvestmentintheWorldSourceFactSetCupeventandsociale-commercebusinessSMRDexpensesdroppedby2013YoYasWeibocontinuedtooptimizeoperatingefficiencyNon-GAAPOPMdroppedby2pptYoYto339in4Q22andby4pptYoYto327inFY22duetothedeceleratingtop-linegrowthLookingintoFY23WeibowillcontinuetooptimizeitsoperatingefficiencyandthemanagementexpecttheefficiencywillrecovertotheFY19FY20levelFY19FY20non-GAAPOPM3734EarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueUSmn22571836198921002165YoYgrowth336186835631Grossmargin821782790790790AdjustednetprofitUSmn71855401568661196437YoYgrowth312248537652EPSAdjustedUS314230242260274ConsensusEPSUS314230226240280PEx26052911510194SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk2Mar2023Figure1WeiboforecastrevisionCurrentPreviousChangeUSmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue19892100216519202017-3641-GrossProfit15711659171115171593-3641-Adjustednetprofit569612644547584-3947-AdjustedEPSRMB2426272325-3947-GrossMargin790790790790790-00ppt00ppt-Adjustednetmargin286291297285290-01ppt02ppt-SourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffUSmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue19892100216518822050-5725-GrossProfit15711659171114791618-6225-Adjustednetprofit569612644534568-6577-AdjustedEPSRMB2426272324-6577-GrossMargin790790790786789-04ppt01ppt-Adjustednetmargin286291297284277-02ppt14ppt-SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure3WeiboquarterlyfinancialUSmn2Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22ConsDiffCMBIDiffAdvertisingrevenue502538551427386393391392-04YoY47529021595-232-268-291VASrevenue727065586560575392YoY54142392-165-104-139-122Totalrevenue5746076164854504544484460444507YoY48330420056-216-253-273Grossprofitmargin839830791784788792763SM269232247259257251274RD177196185232236214222Non-GAAPnetmargin318345317274244262398Non-GAAPnetprofit183210196133110119179122458122458YoY597371-8117-400-432-87SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure4WeibopeervaluationcomparisonCompaniesTickerPriceAdjEPSgrowthYoYPExEPSCAGRLC2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024E2021-2024EFocusMedia002027CH6637636220630419015541BaiduBIDUUS13776422115617714512697MetaMETAUS17498623319620415012408GoogleGOOGLUS901424597226198160134105Average221161135SourceBloombergCMBIGMNotedataareasof28Feb2023PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE22Mar2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecUSmnRevenue169022571836198921002165Costofgoodssold302404401418441455Grossprofit138818531436157116591711Operatingexpenses8811156945105410901110Sellingexpense456592477497515520Adminexpense10113353119123125RDexpense324431415438452466Operatingprofit507697491517570600Othergainslosses175176313000Interestincome44303991021Pre-taxprofit376551138508580621Incometax6113930102116124Aftertaxprofit315412108407464497Minorityinterest11612161920Netprofit31342896423483517Adjustednetprofit547719540569612644BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecUSmnCurrentassets483548034552444954406226Cashequivalents181524242691246333474033Accountreceivables492723502544575592Prepayment297451392416430444Othercurrentassets22311205968102510881156Non-currentassets150127172577244523552292PPE6168250258265270InvestmentinJVsassos11791208994853756687Goodwill209297245245245245Othernon-currentassets5211431089108910891089Totalassets633575207129689377958518Currentliabilities95821591220122512491246Accountpayables150198161174184190Taxpayable10314555555555Othercurrentliabilities14498880879194Accruedexpenses562829924909918907Non-currentliabilities249016722519183822162404Long-termborrowings249016722519183822162404Totalliabilities344938323739306434653650Sharecapital132616791330133013301330Retainedearnings148719152001242429063423Totalshareholdersequity281235943330375342364752Minorityinterest7494607795115Totalequityandliabilities633575207129689377958518PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE32Mar2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecUSmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation376551138508580621Depreciationamortization415547485153Taxpaid6113930102116124Changeinworkingcapital4942334703244Others1305320161920Netcashfromoperations403814809400502526InvestingCapitalexpenditure503553565858Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term731871231485358investmentsOthers62125916391419769Netcashfrominvesting7194241461371448FinancingNetborrowings6021953681377189Proceedsfromshareissues01880000Others75034161920Netcashfromfinancing678189919664396208NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear145318152424269124633347Exchangedifference0290000Cashattheendoftheyear181524242691246333474033GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue44336186835631Grossprofit35335225945631Operatingprofit1523762965410154Netprofit367367776341714171Adjnetprofit141312248537652PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin821821782790790790Operatingmargin300309267260271277Adjnetprofitmargin324318294286291297ReturnonequityROE12313428119121115GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecCurrentratiox502237364450Receivableturnoverdays10631169999999999999Payableturnoverdays180617861467152415241524VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE27926052911510194PEdiluted28026353211610195PB313115131110SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE42Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5