研究报告全文：2Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateNIOIncNIOUSBUYMaintain4Q22miss5newmodelsinthenext5monthsTargetPriceUS2100PreviousTPUS2300UpDownside1236NIOs4Q22earningsmissedourpriorforecastoninventoryprovisionRDandCurrentPriceUS939SGAWeareoftheviewthatNIOs1Q23EsalesandmarginweaknessshouldChinaAutoSectorbelargelypricedinSalesin2H23EcouldbecrucialassupplychainconstraintsshouldnolongerbeanexcuseforsalesmissWemaintainourFY23Esalesvolumeforecastof200000unitswith65comingfrom2H23EOntheotherSHIJiCFAhandNIOs4Q22earningsonceagainunderscoresNIOsheavyinvestmentsin85237618728shijicmbicomhkawiderangeofareaswhichlaysoutfoundationforitsmass-marketbrandbutdelaysitsbreakevenpointMaintainBUYDOUWenjingCFA852693947514Q22earningsmissoninventoryprovisionRDandSGANIOs4Q22douwenjingcmbicomhkrevenuewas1higherthanourpriorforecastItsgrossmarginof39was98pptslowerthanourexpectationamidinventoryprovisionofRMB985mnStockDataforoldmodelsItwouldhavebeen10withoutsuchinventoryprovisionBothMktCapUSmn15888RDandSGAexpensesin4Q22werehigherthanwehadexpectedAvg3mthstoUSmn55852wHighLowUS2408925AccordinglyitsnetlossofRMB58bnwasRMB2bnmorethanourpriorTotalIssuedSharesmn1692estimateSourceBloombergPossiblestrongsequentialsalesgrowthin2H23ENIOplanstolaunchShareholdingStructurefiveneworredesignedmodelsinthenextfivemonthswhichcouldliftsalesLiBin103volumein2H23WeareoftheviewthattheeightmodelsonsalebythenareTencententities97essentiallythreeSUVsandtwosedansindifferentvariantsNIOsoldaboutOthers800SourceBloomberg91000unitsofthreeSUVsinFY21whichcouldbeagoodreferencetoestimatepotentialsalescannibalizationWekeepourFY23EsalesvolumeSharePerformanceforecastof200000unitsunchangedWeestimateNIOssalesvolumeinAbsoluteRelative2H23Ecouldaccountfor65ofitstotalsalesinFY23E1-mth-228-953-mth-63-224NIOmayneedmass-marketbrandtoturnprofitableWeareoftheview6-mth-507-489SourceBloombergthatNIOs4Q22earningsonceagainunderscoredourpreviousargumentthatittakeslongertimetobreakeventhanmanagementtargetsWemaintainour12-mthPricePerformanceforecastsforFY23ErevenueandgrossprofitbutexpectwidernetlossRMBUSNIOUSMSCIChinarebased122bnvsRMB113bntoaccountforhigherRDandSGAgivenNIOs30heavyinvestmentsindifferentareasWeexpectNIOtocontinuemakingloss25inFY24Eandwestillbelievethatitneedsmass-marketbrandtoturnprofitable20ValuationKeyrisksWemaintainourBUYratingbutlowertargetprice15slightlyfromUS2300toUS2100basedon3xpreviously35xour10FY23Erevenueestimatestoreflectpossiblewidernetlossthanwehad5estimatedbeforeKeyriskstoourratingandtargetpriceincludelowersales02022-032022-062022-092022-12volumeandmarginsthanweexpectaswellasasectorde-ratingEarningsSummarySourceBloombergYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EAuditorPricewaterhouseCoopersRevenueRMBmn1625836136492697624592222ZhongTianYoYgrowth10781223363548210NetincomeRMBmn-5611-10572-14559-12215-10562RelatedReportsEPSRMB-474-672-889-722-619NIOInc4Q22ElosstonarrowFY23YoYgrowthNANANANANAsalestooutperform1Feb2023PSx5733281815PBx343557100240YieldNANANANANAROE5383424976491078NetgearingNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk2Mar2023Figure1QuarterlyresultsRMBmn1Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22YoYQoQSalesvolumeunits2006021896244392503425768250593160740052600267ASPRMB39792338582640121539549238460841072541136840106614-25Revenue79828448980599019911102921300216064622235Grossprofit1555157419931700144713401735622-634-642RDexpenses6878841193182917622149294539811177352SGAexpenses11971498182523582015228227123527496300Operatingprofit29676399224452189284638706736NANANetprofit4875659285921791825274541425847NANAGrossmargin19518620317214613013339-133ppt-95pptOperatingmargin-37-90-101-247-221-276-298-419-172ppt-122pptNetmargin-611-78-292-220-184-267-319-364-144ppt-45pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY22FY23EFY24EFY22FY23EFY24EFY22FY23EFY24ERevenue492697624592222490897624592222040000Grossprofit5144119511634766921195116347-2310000Operatingprofit156411299911232128621217410382NANANANetprofit14559122151056212514113209599NANANAGrossmargin104157177136157177-32ppt00ppt00pptOperatingmargin-317-170-122-262-160-113-55ppt-11ppt-09pptNetmargin-296-160-115-255-148-104-41ppt-12ppt-10pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure3CMBIestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY22FY23EFY24EFY22FY23EFY24EFY22FY23EFY24ERevenue4926976245922225112594806126088-36-196-269Grossprofit5144119511634771421565124229-280-236-325Operatingprofit1564112999112321168583751939NANANANetprofit145591221510562107447145965NANANAGrossmargin104157177140165192-35ppt-08ppt-15pptOperatingmargin-317-170-122-229-88-15-89ppt-82ppt-106pptNetmargin-296-160-115-210-75-08-85ppt-85ppt-107pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE22Mar2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue1625836136492697624592222Profitbeforetaxation52983975143821208210534Costofsales1438529315441256429475875Depreciationamortization15462352338947356049Grossprofit1873682151441195116347Changeinworkingcapital48302693265417341423Others873896141314891422RDexp24884592108361250812726Netcashfromoperating19511966692641241640SGAexp39326878105371334215854Otherincome611525899001000Capex11284079450170017001Operatingprofit46084496156411299911232Others3943356861105865007500Netcashfrominvesting5071397656557501499Netfinancecosts2592741026567248GainLossofinvestee6663378150150Shareissuance34762128228006001080Othernon-operexp365185145200300Netborrowings61536801784422191Pre-taxprofit52983975143821208210534Others5981162720363720Netcashfromfinancing413571812996411841191Incometax642553632Accronredeemableint3126587279100-Netchangeincash38237196701334344150Minorityinterests53115733Cashatbeginningoftheyear99038545183751704113600Netprofit561110572145591221510562Exchangedifference682501---Cashattheendoftheyear3854518375170411360013650BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ECurrentassets4620763641517614531239805SalesmixCashequivalents3842615334134419950100004Vehiclesales934918924915909Accountreceivables1079278135105431656963Others6682768591Inventories1082205630224580540581Othercurrentassets56204347031788253511783121GrowthRevenue10781223363548210045Non-currentassets843519242234352821032097GrossprofitNA26412461323368720PPE49967400955213067154358OperatingprofitNANANANANA698Right-of-useassets13502988323928532289NetprofitNANANANANA24Othernon-currentassets20898854106441228914373041Totalassets5464282884751967352271901392ProfitlossratioGrossmargin115189104157177593Currentliabilities1397629198313414160147273Operatingmargin2831243171701226504Bankborrowings19317298453577577847Netprofitmargin345293296160115081Accountpayables6368126391692423780280639631182628628628628BalancesheetratioTaxpayable46Othercurrentliabilities54968633925394371073591Netcashtotalequityx11101010092Currentratiox33221711087385Non-currentliabilities880315622165471820818920Receivableturnoverdays2428262626612BankborrowingsinclCB5938973996251062510625Inventoryturnoverdays272625262684Othernon-currentliabilities2865588369217583829595Payableturnoverdays162157140135135Totalliabilities2278044820478885980966194268092ProfitabilityMezzanineequity469132783557--ROE5383424976491078382Sharecapital33333ROA162154184164145864Treasuryshares-1850367236723672573Reserves27166365572750217467946486-PersharedataRMBNon-controllinginterests2768184872EPS-474-672-889-722-61909Shareholdersequity271693471023833137975795DPSNANANANANA172Totalequityliabilities54642828847519673522719012175SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimates46616942PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE32Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4