>> 招银国际-China Economy – PMI beat expectations as economy continues to recover-230302
| 上传日期： |
2023/3/2 |
大小： |
562KB |
| 格式： |
pdf 共6页 |
来源： |
招银国际 |
| 评级： |
-- |
作者： |
-- |
| 下载权限： |
无限制-登录即可下载 |
|
|
研究报告全文：2Mar2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchEconomicPerspectivesChinaEconomyPMIbeatexpectationsaseconomycontinuestorecoverChinasPMIfurtherreboundedasoutputnewordersandbusinesssentimentallBingnanYEPhDcontinuetoimproveTheeconomyremainedgoodonitswaytorecoverExports85237618967orderindexalsoreboundedprobablybecauseoverseasdemandandinflationyebingnancmbicomhkwasmoreresilientthanexpectedanddomesticsupplychainfurtherimprovedKevinZhangHoweverwecontinuetoexpectChinasexportsofgoodsmaydropby35in852533646822023afterrising7in2022duetooverseasrecessionriskanddisinflationtrendkevinzhangcmbicomhkImportsvolumemaycontinuetoimprovebutadisinflationmayrestrainthegrowthofimportsgrowthChinasimportsofgoodsareexpectedtorise05in65index2023aftergrowing11in2022Chinasreflationismoderateasex-factory60pricescontinuedtomildlyriseChinasGDPgrowthmayreach54in2023and5549in2024comparedto3in2022ThePBOCseemsmorecautiousinRRR5045LPRcutsinneartermduetostrongnewcreditandbetter-than-expected40recoveryinhousingsalesin1Q23Butwecannotruleouttheirpossibilityin2H2335asChinasgrowthrateslowsandoverseasrecessionriskincreasesChinas30creditpolicyshouldremainaccommodativeasthe2YCAGRofGDPremains25belowpotentialgrowthandthereflationismoderateManufacturingPMIConstructionPMIServicePMIPMIfurtherreboundedinFebruaryamidtheresumptionoffactorySourceNBSCMBIGMproductionandbusinessactivitiesafterCNYbreakPMIinmanufacturingsawoneofthehighestmonthlyimprovementsindecadesasitrosefrom501index55inJanuaryto526inFebruaryTheindexesinfurnituremetalproductand5351electricalequipmentincreasedtoabove60inFebruaryindicatingstrong49recoverymomentuminthosesectorsMeanwhilePMIinconstructionclimbed4745from564inJanuaryto602inFebruaryreflectingafaster-than-expected43recoveryinconstructionactivityForservicesectorPMIroseto556in4139Februaryfrom540inJanuaryastheindexesinroadtransportationair3735transportationpostalservicecateringaccommodationandleasing20192020202120222023businessactivitiesallrosetotheexpansionaryterritoryPMIoflargeenterprisesPMIofmediumenterprisesNeworderandbusinesssentimentcontinuedtoimproveNeworderPMIofsmallenterprisesSourceNBSCMBIGMindexinmanufacturingconstructionandservicerespectivelyrosefrom509574and516inJanuaryto541621and547inFebruaryBusinessexpectationsimprovedinmanufacturingandservicesectorsyetdeclinedinconstructionsectorBusinesssentimentindexesinagriculturalprocessingtextilegeneralequipmentspecialequipmentandautosincreasedtoabove60inFebruaryindicatingbullishexpectationsinthosesectorsExportsandimportsindexesimprovedasoverseaseconomywasbetterthanexpectedandsupplychainfurtherimprovedExportsorderindexandimportsindexrespectivelyclimbedfrom461and467inJanuaryto524and513inFebruarymarkingthefirsttimeforthetwoindexestoreboundtoabove50sinceJune2021Theexportsmayimproveinneartermyetshouldremainweakin1H23Weexpecttheexportstodrop35in2023afterrising7in2022duetooverseasdemandslowdownanddisinflationprocessTheimportsshouldimproveasdomesticdemandgraduallyreboundsafterthereopeningHoweverthedisinflationmayrestrainimportsvaluegrowththisyearWeexpectimportstorise05in2023aftergrowing11in2022PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk2Mar2023Chinahadmildreflationpressureasex-factorypricesandmaterialcostsmoderatelyincreasedEx-factorypriceindexesinmanufacturingconstructionandservicerosefrom487528and475inJanuaryto512536and504inFebruaryMeanwhilematerialcostpressureremainedlowasthecostindexinmanufacturingmildlyincreasedwhilethatinservicesectordeclinedTheex-factorypriceindexinsteelproductgeneralequipmentandspecialequipmentrosetoabove60showingnoticeablereflationpressureinthosesectorsEmploymentconditioncontinuedtoimproveyetremainedweakinservicesectorEmploymentindexesinmanufacturingconstructionandservicerosefrom477531and455inJanuaryto502586and487inFebruaryTheemploymentconditionremainedweakinservicesectorastheindexwasstillbelow50WeexpecttheemploymentindexestocontinuetoimprovesupportingarecoveryofconsumptionthisyearChinaeconomyisonthewaytorecoverwithsomefluctuationsintherecoverypaceThePMIinFebruaryindicatesChinaeconomyiswellonitswaytorecoverasoutputdemandandsentimentcontinuestoimproveDuetolowbaseandrecoveryafterthereopeningChinasGDPgrowthisexpectedtoreboundfrom3in2022to54in2023and49in2024TheYoYgrowthratesmayseesomefluctuationswiththepeakat2Q23duetochangesinbaseeffectandrecoverypaceThecentralbankseemsmorecautiousonfurtherRRRLPRcutsinneartermduetostrongnewcreditandbetter-than-expectedrecoveryinhousingsalesin1Q23Howeverwecannotruleoutitspossibilityin2H23asChinasrecoverypaceslowsandoverseasrecessionriskincreasesChinascreditpolicyshouldremainaccommodativeasthe2YCAGRofGDPremainsbelowpotentialgrowthandthereflationisstillmoderatePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE22Mar2023Figure1NewOrderIndexFigure2BusinessSentimentIndexINDEXindex7060556550604555405035453025402019202020212022202320192020202120222023ManufacturingNon-ManufacturingServiceManufacturingConstructionServiceSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure3ExportOrderIndexandImportIndexFigure4InventoryIndex53indexindex55485043454038353330201920202021202220232820192020202120222023InventoryofproductsInventoryofmaterialsExportorderindexImportindexPurchasevolumeofmaterialsSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMFigure5MaterialCostIndexFigure6Ex-factoryPriceIndex65index605550454020192020202120222023ManufacturingConstructionServiceSourceWINDCMBIGMSourceWINDCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE32Mar2023Figure7ManufacturingOutputIndexFigure8ServicePMIOutputIndexindexYoYindexYoY23YCAGR6010601558551055650545524505004840546535441010304240152515201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023ServicePMILHSManufacturingOutputIndexLHSServiceoutputindexYoYRHSVAIOYoYgrowthRHSServiceGDPYoYRHSSourceWINDCMBGMSourceWINDCMBGMFigure9CompositeOutputIndexFigure10EmploymentIndexindexYoYindex60860655554250500452404546354082018201920202021202220233020192020202120222023CompositeoutputindexLHSGDPYoYRHSManufacturingConstructionServiceSourceWINDCMBGMSourceWINDCMBGMFigure11SupplyDeliveryIndexFigure12DailyMobilityIndexinTier-1Cities55indexindex7DMAmn7DMA19455018401735164530152514204013121535111010509030202020212022202320192020202120222023SupplydeliveryindexinmanufacturingDailytrafficcongestionindexLHSSupplydeliveryindexinserviceDailysubwaypassengerflowRHSSourceWINDCMBGMSourceWINDCMBGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE42Mar2023Figure13TrafficCongestionIndexbyCityinFeb2023SourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE52Mar2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6
|
|
