>> 招银国际-Yanlord：Resilient FY22 results and business model; maintain Buy-230301
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研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary1March2023CMBICreditCommentaryYanlordResilientFY22resultsandbusinessmodelmaintainBuyGlennKoCFA高志和85236576235MaintainBuyonYLLGSP24and26glennkocmbicomhkYanlordsoperatingperformanceremainsresilientinaverychallengingoperatingCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩environmentThecompanyhasbeenprudentlymanagingitsoperationsfocusingonthepenetrationinto20-plusT12citiesinYRDandGBAwhere85239000801economicfundamentalhasbeensolidandpopulationinflowhasbeenpositivecyrenangcmbicomhkItsoperatingscaleprofitabilityandleveragehavethereforebeenstableWeJerryWang王世超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