>> 招银国际-China Consumer Sector – Shenzhen Trip： sustained growth in Feb 2023-230222
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研究报告全文：22Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaConsumerSectorShenzhenTripsustainedgrowthinFeb2023OUTPERFORMMaintainMaintainedOUTPERFORMafterourShenzhenConsumerTourWevisitedanumberofcompaniescateringhotelandsportswearbrandsandChinaConsumerDiscretionaryexpertscateringshoppingmalloperatorsduringourtriptoShenzhenthisSectorweekThischannelcheckhasstrengthenedourOUTPERFORMviewontheConsumerdiscretionarysectorbackedby3trendsWalterWoo852376187761postCNYsalesgrowthremainedrobustifnotstrongerastherewerestillwalterwoocmbicomhksomedistortionsbyCOVID-19casesinJan20232operatorsmentionedbettergrowthinFebvsJan2023andtheothershadseensimilargrowthXBXB520HKsharepriceHKStockHSI2spendingpercustomerisgrowingstrongevidencedbyimproved100sportswearbrandsretaildiscountsandincreasesinhotelbrandsADRhencetheGPmargincouldpotentiallybebenefitedtooand80603luxuryexperiencebasedandvalueformoneysegmentsarereboundingbettermassmarketingcateringsportswearbrandsandmid-highendhotel40brandsSSSGisfastduringJan-Feb202320220225202282022112022WealsohaveanOUTPERFORMratingon1catering2sportswearandappareland3tourismhotelswhilewehaveaMARKET-PERFORMratingSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesonhomeappliancesOursectortoppicksarenowXBXB520HKBUYYumChina9987HKsharepriceYUMC9987HKBUYCDC341HKBUYAnta2020HKBUYXtepHKStockHSI1368HKBUYBosideng3998HKBUYJNBY3306HKBUYAtour5000ATATUSHaier6690HKBUYandGree000651CHNR4000ShoppingmallexpertDuringCNY2023customertrafficinNortheasternandNorthernChinawentupby20retailsalesgrowthwasat30while3000customertrafficinEasternandSouthernChinaincreasedby16andretailsalesgrowthwasat19Recoveryratevs2019wasthebestinWestern2000220225202282022112022andSouthernChinaat88PostCNYretailsalesgrowthisstillstrongbecausetherewerestillsomeCOVID-19infectioncasesduringCNYTheSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesexpertexpectedrecoveryratetosurpass100inlate2Q23Eorearly3Q23EandsharedthattheirSSSGtargetfor2023was15forbothluxurynon-Anta2020HKsharepriceHKluxurysegmentsStockHSI1400Subsegmentslike1cateringespthecelebritybrandslikeTaiErandCou1200Cou2experienceandentertainmentssuchasmovieorfamilyandkidsrelated3luxurybrandslikegoldandjewelry4sportswearFILAand1000ChinaLiNingespthosehavemoreoutdoorskiingfitnessyogaproducts8005designerbrandsegIThavedonebetterWhilesub-segmentslike1600menswear2womensweararestillstruggling220225202282022112022CateringbrandexpertBrandslikeHaidilaohadatableturnoverof32xSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesduringCNYwhileturnoverwasat29xinFY22and30xinFY21underperformedtheindustrywitharoughly70recoveryratevs2019TheXtep1368HKsharepriceHKreasonsbehindtheirunderperformancearemanifoldincludinginternalStockHSIfactorslike1brandagingwherethemajorcustomergroupisnowover35160yearsoldandinsufficientinnovationsthebrandvaluesstandardizationmore140whileotherbrandsprefercreativity2thesignatureserviceslevelhasbeen120caughtupbyotherbrandsAlsoexternalfactorlikesthechangeinconsumer100behaviorduetoadropofinterestingroupgatheringhasledtoafallinnumber80ofcustomerspertabletojust22xfrom35xbeforeCOVID-19Asaresult60tableturnoverforsomenewrestaurantsisaslowas25x220225202282022112022TheexpertalsobelievedbrandslikeSongHotpotandBanuMaoduHotpotSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimateshavealreadycaughtupandwiningmarketsharesrecentlythankstotheirmuchyoungerandfunvibeandsimilarlycomprehensiveservicelevelPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk22Feb2023TheexpertwouldnotbesurprisedtoseeHaidilaotore-openmorestoresinFY23E-25Easthebreakeventableturnoverbecomemuchlowernowat3xvs4xinthepastandthesenewstoresshouldmostly80beinthetier2andtier3citiesAtourATATUSNRGrouplevelRevPARinJan2023hadalreadysurpassedthelevelin2019outperformingtheindustryThegrowthrateofRevPARhadevenspeededupinFeb2023ThereforethelowseasoninduringFebisratherhotin2023ForthespecifichotelwevisitedOCCreached95inJan2023anddemandinFeb2023actuallyexceededmanagementsexpectationThereforetheADRhasbeenraisedafewtimesYTDandreachedRMB800NotethathikesinADRisamoreimportantdriverthanOCCimprovementManagementbelievedsuchanencouragingperformancewasdrivenby1ATOURssuperiorbrandequityandpricetoqualityratioand2piledupdemandforexhibitionsandbusinesstravelsinthepastthreeyearsNochangesintheRevPARrecoveryratevs2019of103aswellastheexpansiontargetof280hotelsnetaddinFY23Eand2000hotelsintotalbyFY25EbutsentimentoftheinvestorshadimprovedmeaningfullyXBXB520HKBUYCNYYoYSSSGwasexcellentforXBXBat24whileitwasjustfairforCouCouat0ButthemanagementisstilloptimisticabouttheoutlookgiventherecentreformsandlowbaseaheadinFY23EManagementalsoseesmeaningfulroominmarginimprovementsForexamplesGPmargininFY23EcanreturntothelevelinFY19thankstothegreateruseofin-housemeatprocessingfactoryRentalexpensesasofsalesforXBXBandCouCoucanhopefullyimproveto11-1210and9-108inFY23E24EdrivenbyincreasedbargainingpowerafterthemergeofvariousmiddletobackofficefunctionsbetweenthesetwobrandsThereiscertaintypressureonstaffcostsafterthere-openingandtheup-comingminwagesincreasesHoweveraidedbyimprovementinstoreproductivityandefficiencystaffcostsasofsalesforXBXBandCouCoumayberefinedto20and25byFY24EMoreoveraftertheuseofin-houserestaurantinteriordesignteamsandthelocationdecorationteamscapexperstorepersqmforXBXBandCouCoucouldbereducedfromRMB10000andRMB8000toRMB7000andRMB4500respectivelyHencethemid-termrestaurantOPmarginforXBXBandCouCoucouldbe20and16Thegroupexpectstohave1207020grossnewstoresforXBXBCouCouShaoHotinFY23EInfacttherearealready3440storesopenedjustinJan2023Xtep1368HKBUYRetailsalesgrowthinJan-Feb2023wasataround20-30intheShenzhenflagshipstorenotethatthemomentumremainedstrongevenaftertheCNYMoreimportantlywebelievethecutinretaildiscountwaswellsupportedbythemuchhealthierinventorylevelat25monthsvs30monthsin2022PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE22Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE3MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk
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