研究报告全文：MN22Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateKeHoldingsBEKEUSExistinghomesalesrecoverytobebetterthananticipatedTargetPriceUS2330Weexpectindustry-wideExistingHomeTransactionsEHTrecoverytobeUpDownside253strongerthancurrentmarketexpectationourforecast17YoYGTVgrowthinCurrentPriceUS18602023EWealsoexpectBeikesnetworkefficiencyshouldamplifythebenefitsfromsuchrecoveryasEHThashigherthangroupaveragecontributionprofitmarginChinaInternetCPMInadditionincreaseinrevenuecontributionfromhighCPM80SaiyiHECFAservicesrevenuegeneratedbyBeikesestablishedagencycooperationnetwork85239161739ACNcouldaidlong-termmarginexpansionRecoveryinEHTandcombininghesaiyicmbicomhkoperationaloptimizationeffortcoulddriveabeatonbottomlinein2023EWereiterateBUYonBeikewithSOTP-basedTPofUS233JeffreyZENG85239163727EHTisonrecoverytrendwhilenewhomesalesstillstrugglePerWindjeffreyzengcmbicomhkexistinghomesalesineightmajorcitieswereup53YoYpost-CNY28Janto20Feb2023vs15YoYpre-CNYandnewhomesalesin30majorYeTAOfranktaocmbicomhkcitiesweredown15YoYpost-CNYwhichimprovedfrom-25YoYpre-CNYWearepositiveonEHTrecoveryin2023EdrivenbytheturnoverrateMiaoZHANGrecoveryandnaturalexistinghomesizegrowthWethinkpolicywillcontinuezhangmiaocmbicomhktostaysupportiveinthecomingmonthsaspropertypricesintheexistinghomemarketremainrelativelystableWeforecastindustry-wideEHTGTVtogrowWentaoLU17in2023EandestimateBeikesmarketshareinEHTbusinesscouldluwentaocmbicomhkexpandto306310in20232024E2021294aidedbyitsstrongnetworkeffectandsuperiorservicescapabilityBellaLibellalicmbicomhkWellestablishedACNnetworkaidsresilientservicefeerevenuegrowthandlong-termmarginexpansionBeikesestablishedACNnetworkcouldStockDataMktCapUSmn220046helpgenerateresilientservicesrevenuewithhighCPMWeestimateservicesAvg3mthstoUSmn170feehavecontributedto5820ofBeikestotalrevenuenon-GAAPnetprofit52wHighLowUS2035900in2022EWeforecastrevenuecontributionfromservicesfeetoincreasetoTotalIssuedSharesmn118306067oftotalin20232024EwhichwillhelpdriveBeikesoverallnon-SourceFactSetGAAPnetmarginto8192in20232024E2022E33ShareholdingStructureEarningsgrowthcouldbeatexpectationsin2023EStrongerthanPropitiousGlobal233expectedrecoveryinrelativelyhighCPMEHTbusinessaswellasBeikesTencentMobility100SourceHKExoperatingexpenseoptimizationeffortcoulddriveabeatonbottomlinefor2023EinourviewWeforecastEHTgrouplevelCPMtoexpandtoSharePerformance422335in2023E2022E403311andour2023Enon-GAAPnetAbsoluteRelative1-mth-39-95incomeforecastwas7higherthanBloombergconsensusOurSOTP-based3-mth197132TPofUS233perADSismadeupof1US223forBeikescorehousing6-mth150262transactionbusinessWACCof105terminalgrowthof25and2SourceFactSetUS10forShengdubasedontheRMB80bnBeikepaidfortheacquisition12-mthPricePerformanceofShengduOurTPtranslatesinto34x27x2324EPEnon-GAAPCatalysts14Q22results2strongerthanexpectedhousingtransactionmarketrecoveryand3betterthanexpectedearningsrecoveryEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenueRMBmn7048180752587446951576594SourceFactSetYoYgrowth532146273183102NetprofitRMBmn261355241192022551139475AdjustednetprofitRMBmn5719722940196515647070472AdjNPconsensusRMBmn201965280167053EPSAdjustedRMB360771194165475PExna2048nana596ROE5308293652SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk22Feb2023Figure1Chinaexistinghomesalesin8majorcities7-dayrolling0000sqm202120222023302520151050JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecSourceWindCMBIGMFigureExisting2ExistinghomeGTVSecondaryforecast2023E17YoYhousingvalueTurnovmarketRMBYearRMBbnerratebnYoY20161918893057002017215115245200-9201825478122570010201929334020590042020328823206500102021354702176200-52022E360439134650-252023E376111145435172024E391950156036112025E40319616645172026E41342316673942027E42384317703642028E43445817734242029E44472017764942030E4551321879654SourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure3ExistinghomenewhomeGTVtransactedonBeikeRMBtnExistinghometransactionNewhometransaction2535ExistinghomemarketshareRHLNewhomemarketshareRHL30202515201510100550002019202020212022E2023E2024ESourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE222Feb2023SOTPbasedvaluationofUS233perADSOursumofthepartsSOTPmethodvaluesBeikeatUS233perADSwhichismadeupof1US223perADSforBeikescorehousingtransactionbusinessassumingWACCof105andterminalgrowthof25and2US10perADSforShengdubasedontheRMB80bnBeikepaidfortheacquisitionofShengduOurtargetpricetranslatesinto339x2023EPEand272x2024EPEundernon-GAAPand2825x20232024EPSFigure4BeikeCoreDCFvaluationWACCof105terminalgrowthof25RMBmn2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030ENPVofFCF5147449345458114177335089287161999811198Discountedterminalvalue71661Enterprisevalue123135Netcash60199Equityvalue183334NoofADSdilutedmn1188ValuationperADSUS223SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure5BeikeSOTPvaluationRMBmn2023EBeikeCore183334Shengdu8000TotalBeikevaluation191334TotalBeikevaluationUSmn27730ValuationperADS233NoteOurexchangerateassumptionisRMBUSD691SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE322Feb2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue460157048180752587446951576594Costofgoodssold347475362164933458905227856736Grossprofit112681686015819128531723719858Operatingexpenses130541401817174144351483715620SGAexpense114821130413234102731055811135RDexpense157124783194408642794485Others02367477600Operatingprofit178628421355158224004238Otherincome43178117021192953763Otherexpense54216368500Investmentgainloss10947356537800ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV1134374500Interestincome230163355687727925Pre-taxprofit12764223114172140805926Incometax90416091665120015301980Aftertaxprofit21802614525192125503946Minorityinterest311111Netprofit21842613524192025513947Corenetprofit4050922524192025513947Adjustednetprofit165657202294196556477047BALANCESHEET2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets519128753969926672417495582792Cashequivalents243194097020446235163113639927Restrictedcash738085676286660069307277Accountreceivables8093131849325437443633219Othercurrentassets121202481833869327503252632368Non-currentassets153531675630393303093025830279PPE113414721972171014111107Right-of-useassets562568217244796987659642Intangibles25601643114159547506Goodwill247724671806180618061806Othernon-currentassets3556435318230182301823018230Totalassets6726510429610031997550105213113071Currentliabilities277983363328936256652820629437Short-termborrowings7200260260260260Accountpayables421365956009792191679948Othercurrentliabilities170462072815361113291246012869Leaseliabilities222326262753275327532753Contractliabilities5937341102110211021102Accruedexpenses300329503451230124652505Non-currentliabilities793238704327432743274327Long-termborrowings489000000Othernon-currentliabilities304238704327432743274327Totalliabilities357303750333263299933253333764Sharecapital000000Retainedearnings11776922898431176392125264Otherreserves432247599376817792408181284492Totalshareholdersequity314486676566974674777260079228Minorityinterest872782818079Totalequityandliabilities6726510429610031997550105213113071PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE422Feb2023CASHFLOW2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation12764223114172140805926Depreciationamortization103911741158148115581638Taxpaid90416091665120015301980Changeinworkingcapital1762299132170419921663Others120763540284881278Netcashfromoperations11393623595367286739928InvestingCapitalexpenditure7038871430659710782Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments785131989876000Others3956892135784982619Netcashfrominvesting38741497824884161736802FinancingNetborrowings88317202601271312Proceedsfromshareissues1584400000Others1648261261334000Netcashfromfinancing230262540610741271312NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear127603193149537267323011638066Exchangedifference952184442000Cashattheendoftheyear319314953726732301163806647204GROWTH2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRevenue606532146273183102Grossprofit64049662187341152Operatingprofitnanananana766Netprofitnanananana547Adjnetprofit1166024545991431874248PROFITABILITY2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin245239196219248259Operatingmargin394017273555Adjnetprofitmargin368128338192ReturnonequityROE945308293652GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx060603030405Currentratiox192624262728VALUATION2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecPEnana2048nana596PEdilutednana2086nana596PBna2829222119PCFPSna5631390503190166SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE522Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6