研究报告全文：FixedIncomeCreditCommentary21Feb2023CMBICreditCommentaryFixedIncomeDailyMarketUpdate固定收益部市场日报MarketswereweakthismorningInAsianIGspaceBankT2widened5-10bpsKRnamesoverallwidened3-5bpsAMCsectorstabilizedafterGlennKoCFA高志和yesterdaysdropChinaLGFVSOEPerpswereweakandflowsskewedto85236576235bettersellingglennkocmbicomhkChinaMacroMonitorAnonlinearrecoveryCMBIrevisesuptheforecastfor2023GDPgrowthofChinafrom51to54andmaintainstheforecastfor2024GDPgrowthat49SeebelowforcommentsfromourCyrenaNgCPA吳蒨瑩economicresearch85239000801cyrenangcmbicomhkCSCHCNChinaSouthCityexpectstoobtainunspecifiedsyndicatedloantoreplacehigh-interestdebtsThenewloancandecreaseinterestexpenseforRMB300-400mneachyearCSCHCNsrose025to125ptsthismorningJerryWang王世超85237618919Tradingdeskcomments交易台市场观点jerrywangcmbicomhkYesterdayAsiaIGspacehadaveryquietdaywithUSmarketoutforholidayTherewasawaveofheavysellingontheAMCsspaceHRINTHcurvemoveddown1-2ptsonChinesePropPBsellingChinesebigbankT2sbroadlywidened5-10bpsintheafternoonsessionfollowingtheweekendnewsthattheregulatorsannouncednewbankcapitalsupervisionrulestoraiseonshorebanksriskweightofT2sfrom100to150BCHINABOCOHKCCBT2snotablygrinded10bpswiderElsewhereinfinancialsleasingnameswerelargelystableInTMTshighbetanameslikeLENOVOMEITUAXIAOMIweretraded5-10bpswiderwithactivetwo-wayactiveflowsfromRMsBenchmark10ypaperslikeBABAwerelargelyunchangedto2bpswiderintocloseChinaSOEswererelativelyquietonthinliquidityHAOHUA29s30swereunderbetterbuyingfromshortcoveringInIGpropertiesYUEXIU31sweremarked15pthigherVNKRLEstightened5bpsunderbetterbuyingaswellChineseHYpropertyspacewaslacklusterCOGARDslowered05-2ptsCHINSCsdroppedanother25-4ptstobemarkeddown3-55ptsacrossthecurvepostMoodysdowngradelastFridayROADKG25-26sdropped3-5ptsonstreetpushingwithits26sbeingmarkedto7476from7880levelAGILEsCENCHIsPWRLNGsweredown05-15ptsKWGPROsalsoclosed1-25ptslowerElsewhereCARINC9033124wereindicatedunchangedat92759425postthetenderofferSPaffirmedB-ratingsonCARINCwhileoutlookremainednegativeontightliquiditydespitestrongoperationalrecoveryIndustrialnamesandMacaugamingnameswereunchangedInIndiaspaceAdanicomplexbondswereunchangedwhilstrenewablesdrifted05ptlowerVEDLN24-26swerequoted1-35ptsloweronthebackoftheIndiangovernmentexpressedoppositionofitsHindustanZincdealInIndonesiaspacePERTIJsPLNIJswereunderbetterbuyingTheLGFVPerpAsiaAT1spaceswerestabletoatouchweakeramidlightflowswithnocashUSTonUSholidayMostoftheRMflowsconcentratedPLEASEREADTHEAUTHORCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGECMBIFixedIncomefiscmbicomhk121Feb2023onthefrontendAT1sslidbyanother025-05ptasUSTfuturescontinuedtodropwithflowsledbyHFandstreetsellingICBCAS32PerpBOCOM38Perpdriftedanother0125-025ptlowerundertherisk-offsellingfromclientsBNKEAAT1snotablyunderperformedclosed05-1ptloweronstreetPBssellingSOEPerpsontheotherhandwereunderbetterbuyingasChineseRMscontinuedtopickupcheapoffersinthefrontendyetsellingremainedheavyNon-SOEPerpsweregenerallyanother1ptlowerHKperpswithnocouponresetunderperformedCKINFCKPHNWDEVLFFLperpslowered1-2ptsOverallmarketremainedverycautiousonthebackoftheratesoutlookdespitebondvaluationshavingcomeoffquiteabitfromJanhighsLGFVshadoveralltwo-wayflowsskewedtosmallbettersellingwith23sandhigh-betanamesunderthespotlightmainlyGSHIAV23-24sweremarked05pthigherpostweekendnewsthatGansubureaudirectorensuredrepaymentoflocalLGFVbondsLastTradingDaysTopMoversTopPerformersPriceChangeTopUnderperformersPriceChangeYUEXIU3801203178022ROADKG52011226760-48CSSSHI302133081918ROADKG518072626735-47NJYZSO41212052793617CHINSC714041923804-36ZHONAN31203082689715VEDLN618080924695-36LEEMAN512PERP95414CHINSC738040924501-35MarcoNewsRecap宏观新闻回顾MacroUSstockmarketsclosedyesterdayduetopublicholidayChinaFeb231yrand5yrLPRwerepublishedat365and43withoutchangeforsixconsecutivemonthsChinalaunchedpilotschemetoboostprivateinvestmentinrealestatesectorthethresholdofparticipationisRMB10mnTheUStreasuryyieldswereunchangedyesterday251030yieldsreached460403382388respectivelyDeskanalystcomments分析员市场观点ChinaMacroMonitorAnonlinearrecoveryChinaeconomyhasbeenintheresumptioncyclethankstoeconomicreopeningcreditpolicylooseningandpro-businesspolicyshiftLocalgovernmentsandSOEshaveallstrivedforagoodstartthisyearasthetopleaderhasattachedmoreimportancetotheeconomicgrowthInner-citymobilityhasrecoveredsupportingarapidrecoveryinsomeserviceconsumptionHousingsalesdurableconsumptionandbusinesscapexshouldgraduallyreboundwithsomefluctuationsintheirrecoverypaceinfutureThereflationpressureshouldbemoderateasChinasinflationmayretreatin1H23beforereboundingin2H23TheliquidityandcreditpolicyshouldremainaccommodativeWemildlyreviseupourforecastfor2023GDPgrowthfrom51to54andmaintaintheforecastfor2024GDPgrowthat49ChinasconsumptionrecoveryhastwodifferentsidesWeseebothbrightspotsandunderlyinguncertaintyinChinasconsumptionrecoveryAstheChinesepeoplestarttogooutforworkorpleasuretransportationcateringtravelaccommodationrecreationclothingfootwearcosmeticsandpersonalcarerapidlyrecoverWeseecrowdpeopleinstationsbusytrafficincitiesandmorecustomersinshoppingmallsindicatinghouseholdconsumptioniswellonitswaytorecoverHoweverChinasconsumptionrecoverymayalsohavesomeweaknessesAsasignofweakconfidenceChinesehouseholdscontinuedtorepaytheirmortgagedebtinadvanceandincreasesavingsinJanuaryChinascoreCPIpickedupverymildlyasconsumptionforkeyitemsimprovedveryslowlyTheresidentialCPIcontinuedtodeclineastheemploymentandincomeconditionwasstillweakWebelievetheseveredamagetoconsumerconfidencelastyearand221Feb2023ChinesehouseholdspreferenceforprecautionarysavingsindicatesagradualresumptionofconsumptioninfutureHousingmarketmayseeanonlinearrecoveryChinashousingmarketmayseethefirstroundofrecoveryinnextfewmonthsasdepresseddemandsduringlockdownsgraduallyreleaseandhousingpricesstarttostabilizeintieronecitiesTherecoverypacemayslowagaininfutureafterthepostponeddemandisexhaustedandthepolicyprospectmarginallychangesChinesepolicymakersareveryidealisticastheyareusedtoseekingabalancebetweenmultipletargetsAstherecoverypaceslowsagainthepolicymayalsobeadjustedTosumupChinashousingmarketwillgraduallyresumewithsomefluctuationsintherecoverypaceWeexpectgrossfloorareaforcommoditybuildingsandpropertydevelopmentinvestmentrespectivelytodrop75and5in2023afterdecreasing243and10in2022LiquiditycreditpolicymayremainaccommodativeThepossibilityofadditionalcreditlooseningmaydeclineinneartermasnewloansweremuchstrongerthanexpectedinJanuary-Februaryandthesecond-handhousingmarketintier-onecitiesnoticeablyrecoveredHowevertheliquidityandcreditpolicyshouldremainaccommodativethisyearTheGDPgrowthremainsbelowpotentialgrowthandthereflationriskisquitelowTherecoveryisnonlinearandunbalancedindifferentsectorsHousingmarketdurableconsumptionandprivatecapexshouldresumeinagradualmannerChinamaycontinuewiththepro-businessshiftinnexttwoyearsThepandemichousingmarketslumptechregulatorycrackdownandSino-UStensionsmakeitmoredifficultforChinatoachieveits14th5Yplantargetsand2035visiongoalsAfterbeingclearlyawareofthechallengesChinahasrapidlyadjustedvariouspolicieswithapro-businessshiftalmostovernightThecountrydismantledzero-CovidpolicylaunchedrescuepolicyforpropertydeveloperschangedpolicystancetowardsinternetgiantsandtookeffortstoimprovetieswithothercountriesForlocalgovernmentofficialsboostingGDPgrowthandattractingcapitalbecametheirimportantKPIsagainHoweverprivateentrepreneursmayneedsometimetorestoretheirconfidenceastheeconomyrecoveryshouldbeinagradualmannerThereforeChinamaycontinuewiththepro-businessshiftin2023-2024ClickhereforfullreportOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPricedIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorSizeUSDmnTenorCouponYieldMSFNoOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineTodayOffshoreAsiaNewIssuesPipelineIssueRatingIssuerGuarantorCurrencySizeUSDmnTenorPricingMSFAozoraBankUSD-3yrT185-BBB-BOCOMHKBranchUSD-3yrT100A2--GuangzhouUrbanUSD-3yr79--BBB-InvestmentHDFCBankUSD-3yr-Baa3BBB--MizuhoFinancialGroupUSD-625NC525T165A1A--MizuhoFinancialGroupUSD-825NC725T180A1A--321Feb2023MizuhoFinancialGroupUSD-1125NC1025T195A1A--ShanghaiCommercialUSD-10NC5T275A3-BBBBankNewsandmarketcolorRegardingonshoreprimaryissuancestherewere76creditbondsissuedyesterdaywithanamountofRMB60bnAsformonth-to-date748creditbondswereissuedwithatotalamountofRMB733bnraisedrepresentinga336yoyincreaseMediareportedthatPBOCtoldbankstoslowdownthelendingpaceinFeb23tocontainrisksADSEZAdaniportstoprepayUSD121mninshort-termdebtCHJMAOChinaJinmaoissuesRMB17bnfive-yearcorporatebondswith38couponforrepaymentofmatureddebtsCSCHCNChinaSouthCityexpectstoobtainunspecifiedsyndicatedloantoreplacehigh-interestdebtsThenewloancandecreaseinterestexpenseforRMB300-400mneachyearDAFAPGDaFaPropertiesauditorEYresignsduetoauditfeeandFY22audittimetableNoreplacementannouncedGRNLGRGreenlandremittingfundstocuretwomissed22JanuaryUSDcouponswithingraceperiodGRNKENGreenkoMauritiusredeemsUSD435mn625seniornotesdue2023atmaturityJDJDcomplanstospendRMB10bncUSD15bninsubsidiestoexpandinChinasbudgete-commercemarketLMRTSPFitchdowngradedLippoMallsIndonesiaRetailTrustratingtoCCCRPVINMediareportedthatReNewEnergyGlobalplanstosellstakeinthecompanyscommercialandindustrialprojectsforUSD300mnSHNSUNShinsunHoldingsannouncesproposedoffshoredebtrestructuringinrespectof5seniornotesdue20222023VEDLNVedantassaleofinternationalzincassetstoHindustanZincforUSD298bnwasopposedbyIndiangovernmentlatterurgedtoexploreothercashlessmethodsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedFixedIncomeDepartmentTel8523761886785236576291fiscmbicomhkCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankAuthorCertificationTheauthorwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheauthorcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatauthorinthisreportBesidestheauthorconfirmsthatneithertheauthornorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreport421Feb2023ImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMandoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestDisclaimerForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancia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