>> 招银国际-China Property Sector – Mildly positive for CSRC’s pilot private investment scheme in real estate-230221
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研究报告全文：21Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaPropertySectorMildlypositiveforCSRCspilotprivateOUTPERFORMinvestmentschemeinrealestateMaintainWeexpectpropertysectortoreactpositivelyonCSRCspilotschemesinceitmayacceleratehomedeliveryandsocialhousingwiththehelpofprivateChinaPropertySectorinvestmentAlsodespitelimitedscopeitmayleavesomespaceforhotmoneyJeffreyZengintonewresidentialprojectsandMAdealsespeciallywhenthesalesare85239163727recoveringnowandtrustloansarebackThisisinlinewithourpreviousreportjeffreyzengcmbicomhkthatthepolicywillremainsupportiveWethinkitfurthersupportsourinvestmentthemesoncompletion-relatedstockstogetherwithabigyearofexistinghomeMiaoZhangsalesForstockspicks85237618910zhangmiaocmbicomhk-Strong2nd-homesalesBEKEBEKEUSand5i5j000560CHBellaLi-CompletionYuexiuService6626HKCOPH2669HKBeijingNew85237576202BuildingMaterials000786CHOrientalYuhong002271CHRobambellalicmbicomhkAppliance002508CHWhatisnewAftermarketcloseon20FebCSRCannouncedthenewpilotRelatedReportsschemetoboostprivateinvestmentintorealestatespace1ChinaPropertyServiceSector-WhocanparticipateDomesticinvestorsintheschemepredominantly2023ayearformarketleadersandsurvivorsinstitutionalnon-developersshouldoffernolessthan10millionyuaneachtoparticipateinthefundraisingForeigninvestorsthroughQualified2ChinaPropertySectorPropertyForeignLimitedPartnershipQFLPcanalsoparticipateWeeklyhopesarereturningpost-CNY-ScopeoftherealestatetypesExistingresidentialprojectssocialhousingcommercialbuildingandinfrastructure3CRLand1109HKOutperformingFY22Epromising-PurposeWethinktheprogramitselfistoencourageandattractprivateFY23Eandnot-far-fetchingFY25EinvestmenttohelponhomedeliverysocialhousingtargetandtargetinfrastructureIfthereturnisattractivethismayacceleratetheresolution4ChinaPropertySectorPropertyofnon-performingassetsinrealestateandalsoreducetheburdenforWeeklyWeakconstructionlocalgovernmentonsocialhousingandinfrastructureresumptionratedraggedbyproperty-OurreadWethinkthisismildlypositiveforthepropertysectorOntheplussideitisofficiallyencouragingmoreprivatefundsinclforeign5COLI688HKFY22EpreviewinvestorstohelppropertysectorsoitmayboosttheprogressespeciallypagenotyetturnedwhensalesarerecoveringnowAlsothescopeislimitedfornowbutthere6ChinaPropertySectorCNYmayleavesomespaceformoneyinflowintonewresidentialprojectsorCrowdedmallspent-upbuyersbutMAdealsHowevertheimpactmaynotbeseeninSTasthereareoverbuilthousesalreadymanyrealestatefundsinthespaceandthekeyislackofattractiveprojectsPost-CNYsalescontinuedtoimprovewithsecondarysalesgrowthfurtheracceleratedBasedondailydatanewhomeandsecondarysalesimprovedto-1553YoYpost-CNY28Janto20Febcomparedtothesimilarperiodin2022vs-2515pre-CNYBothcontinuedtoboostmarketconfidencetowardsmorepositiveoutlooktowardsoverallsalesLookingforwardwestillexpectsalesinFebtocontinuetoseeSTrecoverysupportedby1lowbaseand2pent-updemandafterpandemicandCNYOursalesleadingindicatorGAINalsopointedtoaquickreboundinFebwithgenuinesearchup27YoYYTD3ContinuingpolicyrelaxationwithWuhanChangshaYangzhoueasedpurchaserestrictionsAssuchwereiteratethatpolicyrelaxationintier1citieswouldbethekeytodetermineMarchsalesandbeyondPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk21Feb2023Figures1RealestatetrustloanisbackSourceYongyiCMBIGMFigures2Secondaryhomesalescontinuetoaccelerateat15WoWor53YoYpost-CNYSourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE221Feb2023Figure3Newhomesalesalsoimproved4WoWor-15YoYpost-CNYSourceWindCMBIGMFigure4LeadingindicatorsuggestsstrongFebandMarsales120leadingindicator-1monthleading1008060272023YTD40200-20-40-27-60Jul-15Jul-16Jul-17Jul-18Jul-19Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Apr-17Apr-19Apr-21Oct-14Apr-15Oct-15Apr-16Oct-16Oct-17Apr-18Oct-18Oct-19Apr-20Oct-20Oct-21Apr-22Oct-22Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-15SourceNBSCMBIGMFigure5CompsheetofdevelopersSourceBBGCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE321Feb2023Figure6CompsheetofPMcompaniesSourceBBGCMBIGMFigure7CompsheetofpropertysupplychainSourceBBGCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE421Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5
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