研究报告全文：MN17Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdatePinduoduoPDDUSResilientGMVgrowthtosustainin2023TargetPriceUS11690WeexpectPinduoduoPDDtomaintainrelativelymoreresilientGMVandPreviousTPUS9290revenuegrowthin2023EaidedbyuserstickinessandprogressinincorporatingUpDownside219morebrandedproductsDuoduoGroceryDDGsprogressonimprovingCurrentPriceUS9589operatingefficiencycouldsustaininourviewandisontracktoachieveoperatingprofitbreakevenonsinglemonthbasisinmid-to-late2023PDDscoreChinaInternetplatforme-commercebusinesshasenteredstablegrowthphasewhichwillSaiyiHECFAprovidestrongcashflowsupportforTemusoverseasexpansionAggressive85239161739investmentonTemuintheearlystagehasbeenwellexpectedbythemarketinhesaiyicmbicomhkourviewWeremainpositiveonPDDscorebusinessearningsgrowthoutlookanditsoverseasexpansionpotentialWerollforwardourDCF-basedvaluationYeTAOfranktaocmbicomhkto2023EandperADSTPisraisedtoUS1169MaintainBUYResilientGMVgrowthtosustainin2023TheincorporationofmoreWentaoLUluwentaocmbicomhkbrandedproductsandenhancedcustomerpurchasefrequencyaidedbystrengthenedcomparativeadvantageonFMCGandfreshgrocerycategorySophieHUANGshouldsupportPDDsbetterthanindustryrateGMVgrowthin2023Wesophiehuangcmbicomhkforecastacombined2021-2024EGMVCAGRof23forPDDsdomesticbusinesscoreappDDGandestimatePDDsmarketshareinChinae-EasonXUcommerceindustrytoexpandfrom16in2021to1921in20222023EeasonxucmbicomhkEnhanceduserstickinessaidedmonetizationrateexpansionPerStockDataQuestMobilePDDsDAUMAUratiostayedhighat596inNov2022MktCapUSmn1375864closetothatof622forDouyinandhigherthanthatof488449249forAvg3mthstoUSmn88152wHighLowUS104682553KuaishouTaobaoJDcomwhichwebelieveisaidedbyPDDscomparativeTotalIssuedSharesmn14348advantageinFMCGandfreshgrocerycategoryandstronguserSourceFactSetengagementcapabilitywhichsupportsfurthermonetizationrateexpansionShareholdingStructureTheincrementalmonetizationfromTenBillionsubsidyandincreaseinEntitiesaffiliatedwithZheng279DDGsaverageordervaluecouldalsogivesupportWeforecastPDDsHuangoverallmonetizationratetoexpandto44in2024E202136EntitiesaffiliatedwithTencent155SourceNasdaqStrongcorebusinessprofitabilitywillprovideconsistentfundingforoverseasexpansionWearepositiveonPDDsoverseasexpansionandSharePerformanceseesupportingfactorscomingfrom1incomparabledomesticsupplychainAbsoluteRelative1-mth-11-84capability2collaborationwithJTExpresswhichhelponfulfilment3-mth351283optimizationOnTemuthemarketisthrilledbyitscustomeracquisition6-mth8751059growthbutworriedaboutassociatecostsCurrentlyweforecastcRMB12bnSourceFactSetlosstobegeneratedfromTemuin2023whilethiscouldbebufferedbythe12-mthPricePerformanceincrementaloperatingprofitgenerationfromcorebusinessPDDisexperiencedingrowinguserstickinessvalueforqualitypropositionshouldleaveroomforTEMUtomaximizeinvestmentreturnWeestimate2022-2024Enon-GAAPoperatingprofitCAGRof21forcorebusinessand31forGrouplevelCatalysts14Q22results2strongerthanexpectedoutlookonGMVandprofitgrowthforcorebusiness3rapidthanexpectedrampupofTemuSourceFactSetEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenueRMBmn5949293950133532170104203026YoYgrowth974579421274194NetprofitRMBmn7179777687320668360309497803AdjustednetprofitRMBmn29650138295393709449283599836EPSAdjustedRMB249956274431314181ConsensusEPSRMBNANA266730093695PExNA1230258230166ROE169115337262262SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk17Feb2023ChangesinforecastandvaluationKeychangestoourforecastmainlyinclude1Welifted2022-2024Erevenueforecastby12-22duetohigherGMVandmonetizationrateforecastmainlydrivenbyenhanceduserstickinessandsolidprogressinincorporatingmorebrandedproductswhichsatisfyincrementalconsumerdemand2Ournon-GAAPnetmarginforecastwasliftedby360225ppin202220232024EmainlyontheliftofgrossprofitmargindrivenbybetterthanexpectedoperatingleveragesupportedbyrobustrevenuegrowthwhilepartlyoffsetbytheliftinoperatingexpenseratioforecastaswebudgetedinpotentialinvestmenttosupportTemusoverseasexpansionAsaresultournon-GAAPnetprofitwasliftedby27-33for2022-2024EFigure1PDDforecastrevisionCurrentPreviousChangeRMBbn2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024ERevenue133517012030119514471661117175222GrossProfit9921279154587110571211139210276OperatingProfit318408570255341413251197380Non-GAAPnetprofit394449600309379450274184334GrossMargin74375276172973072914ppt22ppt32pptOperatingMargin23924028121323624925ppt04ppt32pptNon-GAAPnetmargin29526429525926227136ppt02ppt25pptSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCurrentConsensusDiffRMBbn2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024E2022E2023E2024ERevenue133517012030130016331942274245GrossProfit9921279154597812261462154357OperatingProfit318408570320403533-041370Non-GAAPnetprofit3944496003674225347464124GrossMargin743752761752751753-09ppt01ppt08ppt-07OperatingMargin239240281246247274-07ppt07pptpptNon-GAAPnetmargin29526429528225927513ppt06ppt21pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesOurDCF-basedtargetpricewasliftedtoUS1169perADSassumptiononbothWACCof120andterminalgrowthrateof20remainsunchangedasaresultofliftedrevenueandearningsforecastandrolled-forwardvaluationto2023Ourtargetpricetranslatesinto26x2023Enon-GAAPPEOurprevioustargetpriceofUS929translatesinto24x2023EPEundernon-GAAPbasisPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE217Feb2023Figure3PDDDCFvaluationWACCof120terminalgrowthof20RMBbn2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030ETotalrevenue170104203026233173261577287345310281331032350221NPVofFCF441036Discountedterminalvalue513179TotalPDDequityvaluation1161144Noofsharesdilutedmn1435ValuationpershareUS1169SourceCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE317Feb2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue301425949293950133532170104203026Costofgoodssold63391927931718343464221748542Grossprofit23803402136223299186127887154485Operatingexpenses323414959455335673378708997448Sellingexpense271744119544802534136906276135Adminexpense129715071541316538614406RDexpense387068928993107601416616907Others000000Operatingprofit853893806897318494079857037Interestincome154224553062353239584552Interestexpense1467571231576767Foreignexchangegainloss6322572126126126Others831946562053656656Pre-taxprofit699672639455372514521962052Incometax0019345108911212196Others2984247767676Aftertaxprofit696871807769320673603149780Minorityinterest000000Netprofit696871807769320673603149780Adjustednetprofit4266296513830393714492859984BALANCESHEET2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets73001149524160909211127267408338719Cashequivalents576822421642765727120412190288Restrictedcash275785242259617488084880848808Accountreceivables105173067495812201456Prepayment95051603425486862017401Othercurrentassets376546879190767907679076790767Non-currentassets3056938520301182411830718336PPE412032203137017362065Right-of-useassets517630939939939939Intangibles19941277701307727772477Othernon-currentassets503727516457128561285612856Totalassets76057158909181210229368285715357056Currentliabilities45768838829373096827108297119706Short-termborrowings89918660000Accountpayables299265383462510580146179266264Othercurrentliabilities99501673516707230302821732713Leaseliabilities116253427427427427Accruedexpenses48771119314086153561786120303Non-currentliabilities56431485112365173271732717327Convertiblebonds52071443311789167501675016750Othernon-currentliabilities436418577577577577Totalliabilities5141098733106095114153125623137032Sharecapital000000Capitalsurplus414948669995341953419534195341Retainedearnings1829525475177072239467270127202Otherreserves144810482520252025202520Totalshareholdersequity246476017675115115215160091220023Totalequityandliabilities76057158909181210229368285715357056PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE417Feb2023CASHFLOW2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation699672639455372514521962052Depreciationamortization6386521495197833364031Taxpaid0019345108911212196Changeinworkingcapital1860631050135621218098749973Others2574375962047108876910075Netcashfromoperations148212819728783534095808773936InvestingCapitalexpenditure62433287267134024061Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments5266693160130268000Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term247985508397547000investmentsOthers390238445360100Netcashfrominvesting28320383583556293134024061FinancingNetborrowings8979061875000Proceedsfromshareissues14958508930000Sharerepurchases000000Others000496100Netcashfromfinancing15855517991875496100NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear305403334674844642765727120412Exchangedifference450140145000Others0059617000Cashattheendoftheyear3334674844642765727120412190288GROWTH2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRevenue1297974579421274194Grossprofit1330689548594289208Operatingprofitnanana3618281398Netprofitnanana3128124382Adjnetprofitnanana1847141335PROFITABILITY2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin790676662743752761Operatingmargin28315873239240281Adjnetprofitmargin14250147295264295ReturnonequityROE321169115337262262GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecCurrentratiox161817222528Receivableturnoverdays795527222324Payableturnoverdays1359079296694640451794814VALUATION2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecPEnana1230258230166PEdilutednana797239210157PB92102127725238SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE517Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6