研究报告全文：16Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateYancoalAustralia3668HKBUYMaintainConfirmationofpricecapandvolumetoremoveTargetPriceHK530overhangPreviousTPHK530UpDownside76YancoalconfirmedthismorningthatacoalpricecapadvisedbytheNewSouthCurrentPriceHK3010WalesNSWGovernmentwillbeeffectivefor15months1Apr2023to30JunCoalMining2024Yancoaliscompelledtomakeavailableupto310ktonnesofcoalperquartertodomesticpowerplantsWeestimatethiswilltranslateinto3017pretaxearningsimpactin2023E24EwhichwethinkisnotsignificantGiventhatWayneFungCFAthepolicyofpricecaphasbeenindiscussionforawhilewebelievethe85239000826waynefungcmbicomhkconfirmationofvolumewillhelpremovetheoverhangWehaveleftourearningsforecastunchangedasweareawaitingthefullsetoffinancialresultson27FebKatherineNgMaintainBUYwithNPV-basedTPofHK5385237618725katherinengcmbicomhkWhatisnewVolumesoldatpricecapconfirmedBackinmid-JanNSWGovernmentintroducedapolicytodemandthermalcoalminerstosetasideStockDataasmuchas10oftheiroutputfordomesticusersatapricecapofA125tMktCapHKmn39745SuchinterventionaimedtoavoidshortageinthedomesticcoalmarketAvg3mthstoHKmn54452wHighLowHK47261687YancoalwasadvisedbytheNSWGovernmentaboutthepricecapandcoalTotalIssuedSharesmn1320reservationpolicyOverweeksofdiscussionYancoalconfirmedthat310kSourceBloombergtonnesofcoal5500kCalperquarterwillbesetasidefordomesticpowerplantsattheaforementionedpricecapShareholdingStructureYankuangEnergy6226Weestimatepretaxearningsimpactof3017in2023E24EThepriceChinaCindaAM1374Others2400capofA125timpliesareductionofA175tandA125tfromourcurrentSourceHKExASPassumptionofA300tandA250trespectivelyin2023Eand2024EGiventheeffectiveperiodfrom1Apr2023to30June2024thevolumetobeSharePerformancesoldbasedonpricecapwillbe093mntonnes062mntonnesin2023E24EAbsoluteRelative1-mth-79-38SuchvolumemultipliedbythepricedifferencewillresultinA163mn3-mth22277A78mnofpretaxprofitreductionimplying3017ofourcurrentpretax6-mth4507profitforecastOurestimatesdonotincludeanypotentialincreaseinlogisticSourceBloombergexpensearisingfromthedomesticsales12-mthPricePerformance3668HKHSIPost-resultsNDRon1MarCMBIwillarrangepost-resultsNDRinHong130110Kongon1MarPleasecontactyoursalesrepresentativefordetails907050Keyrisks1Declineincoalprice2easinggeopoliticaltension3higher-3010than-expectedproductioncost-10-30EarningsSummary-50YE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ETurnoverAmn3473540311293103119501SourceBloombergChangeYoY-2215561090-87-79CorenetprofitAmn-1040791453838003245AuditorShineWingAustraliaCoreEPSA-079060344288246ChangeYoYnana4757-163-146RelatedReports1YancoalAustralia3668HKConsensusEPSAnananananaThermalASPin4QcontinuedtobeatEVEBITDAxna35101214benchmark20Jan2023PExna861721242YancoalAustralia3668HK3QPBx1411090807thermalcoalASPwayaboveYield0096201168143benchmarkapositivesurprise-21Oct2022ROE-1831395973902913YancoalAustralia3668HK-FurtherNetgearing687316NetcashNetcashNetcashriskreductionafterprepaymentofSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesUS1bndebts3Oct2022Note1ThermalcoalpriceassumptionsA350300250pertonneinFY22E23E24ENote2Dividendyieldisnetofdividendtaxof30PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1ACCESSKEYTOOURREPORTSONBLOOMBERGCMBR16Feb2023Figure14Q22operatingstatistics1Q211Q22ChgYoY2Q212Q22ChgYoY3Q213Q22ChgYoY4Q214Q22ChgYoYMarketablecoalproductionmntonnes100equitybasisMinesHVO26273825291602924-1722616-385MountThorleyWarkworthMTW272-2592317-2613221-344323-233Moolarben4143495141-1964634-2614631-326StratfordDuralie010210000201-5000202000302-333Yarrabee0805-37504052500705-2860706-143Middlemount0908-1110906-3330907-2220905-444Ashton0402-5000202000403-250020200Total116107-78116101-12912996-25612385-309MarketablecoalproductionmntonnesAttributablebasisTotal8781-698874-1599973-2639366-290AttributablesalesvolumemntonnesThermal7267-697366-968858-3418355-336Metallurgical1411-2141313001609-4381614-106Total8678-938679-8110467-3569969-299ASPAtonneThermal82243196396353267715048922601954301205Metallurgical117349198312744625121784341438285389365Blended882581932101368264415548121032094221019RevenueAmnThermal590162817587012330232413202836114916192369464Metallurgical16438413441655802512285391371456556220Totalex-minecoalrevenue754201216688662910236016053227101120752926410NoteEquity-accountingforMiddlemountSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2ThermalpricingbenchmarksFigure3YancoalquarterlyASPtrendAt60050040030020010001Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22ThermalMetallurgicalBlendedSourceCompanyArgusMcCloskeyGlobalCOALCMBIGMSourceCompanyCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE216Feb2023Figure4SeaborneSemi-softCokingCoalSSCCFigure5SeabornepulverisedcoalinjectionPCIpriceprice350400300350300250250200200150150100100505000Semi-softcokingcoalpriceUSMetrictonneLowvolatilePCIpriceUSmetrictonneSourceWindCMBIGMSourceWindCMBIGMFigure6Keyoperatingassumptions201720182019202020212022E2023E2024EMarketablecoalproductionmntonnes100equitybasisMinesHVO148133137120106115120130MountThorleyWarkworthMTW118121121119112778090Moolarben124165178197184170180185StratfordDuralie0705080508060600Yarrabee2926283026202020Middlemount3938272937282727Ashton1211221812101010Total477499521518485426443462AttributablesalesvolumemntonnesThermal155284301332317272284295Metallurgical3851554258485052Total193335356374375320335347GrowthYoYThermal76183260103-45-1424536Metallurgical15234278-236381-1724536Average595736635103-1474536ASPAtonneThermal10212310076134350300260Metallurgical163183167123180320300290Blended11413211082141346300265ASPgrowthYoYThermal458200-183-2387541613-143-133Metallurgical536122-88-263465778-63-33Blended429154-162-2617291449-132-118CashoperatingcostbreakdownAtonneUnitcashoperatingcost-71-73-73-67-77-112-110-107ChangeYoY3526-09-82162452-22-22Unitcashoperatingcostexcludinggovernmentroyalties-62-63-64-60-66-85-86-86ChangeYoY-110716-54952831202NoteEquity-accountingforMiddlemountSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE316Feb2023Figure7YALssalesvolumeprojectionFigure8YALsASPassumptionsTonnesmnAt404003535030300252502020015150101005500020152016201720182019202020212022E2023E2024E20152016201720182019202020212022E2023E2024EMetallurgicalThermalThermalMetallurgicalBlendedSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure9YALsregionalrevenuebreakdownFigure10YALsunitcashcostbreakdown100ApertonneOtheroperating90100expenseOthers8090Europe80Productmarketing70India70200200200andtransport60Vietnam6019516216015817113013513650Taiwan50221149ContractualservicesandplanthireJapan164114109401261099740103270269270MainlandChina3030159155181200199178202ConsumablesfuelSouthKorea20electricitywaterand20215220220Singapore10169152155155147152154otherutilitiesservices10Australia0Workforce0employment20152016201720182019202020211H22SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteExcludinggovernmentroyaltiesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE416Feb2023ValuationMaintainBUYwithTPofHK53WevalueYALbynetpresentvalueNPVcalculatedbythefuturecashflowofallthereservesbasedontheireffectiveminelifeOurkeyassumptionsincludeLong-termthermalandmetallurgicalcoalpricestarting2025EofA120tandA160trespectivelyLong-termunitcashcostinflationof2paWACCof59basedonriskfreerateof3710-yearAustraliangovernmentbondyieldriskpremiumof703xbetaand10debtcapitalratioAUDHKDrateofHK53Figure11TPsensitivityWACCLTcoalthermalcoalpriceAt53801001201401603922938153368583749266400535669804592934135336527726931442152863574279329426522618715NoteAssumingLTthermalcoalpriceA120tWACCLTmetallurgicalcoalpriceAt531201401601802003947650553356159049485510535560584594895115335555776948950952854856779487505522540557NoteAssumingLTmetallurgicalcoalpriceA160tSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE516Feb2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecAmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecAmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ETotalrevenue3473540311293103119501Pretaxprofit-11431103639254284636Otherincome-703-36565248Financecost1912591324530Changeininventories12-60000Interestincome-84-21-68-82-152Rawmaterialsandconsumables-666-757-864-900-936Shareofprofitorlossofassociates59-57-32-17-18Employeeusedbenefits-568-578-688-736-763Depreciationamortization804831835841819Transportation-556-642-640-669-693Incometaxpaid00-1854-1628-1391Contractualservices-364-410-416-452-471Changeinworkingcapital25-193-717943-1316Governmentroyalties-232-421-880-803-740Others868151000Coalpurchase-302-162-204-185-169Cashflowfromoperation7202073468955302609Otheroperatingexpenses-183-202-331-320-308NetcapexonPPE-238-268-580-550-550Depamortization-804-831-835-841-819InvestmentinJVassociates00000EBIT-8931305649354564649Investmentinsubsidiaries-204-100000Financeexpenses-191-259-132-45-30Investmentinintangibles-27-6000ShareofprofitofJVassociates-5957321718Dividendreceived1111533Pretaxprofit-11431103639254284636Interestreceived6476882152Incometax103-312-1854-1628-1391Others-13357000Aftertaxprofit-1040791453838003245Cashflowfrominvesting-527-299-507-465-395MI00000Equityfinancing00000Netprofit-1040791453838003245Netbankborrowings1-494-2413-5000Corenetprofit-1040791453838003245Netrepaymentofborrowingsfromassociates0Dividendpaid-2800-1626-2428-1775DA804831835841819Interestpaid-179-180-132-45-30EBITDA-892136732862985468Others-35-267000Cashflowfromfinancing-493-941-4171-2973-1805Changeincash-300833102092409Cashatbeginningoftheyear962637149515053597Exchangegainslossesandothers-2525-000Cashattheendoftheyear6371495150535974006BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecAmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ENon-currentassets97129269904187648510SalesmixPPE33023232329432993276Salesofcoal9871001999993985Miningtenements48724608429640063765Seafreight1815070808InvestmentinJVassociates257303330344359Fairvalueoflossesrecycledfrom5628171516Explorationandevaluation709541541541541Interesthedgereserveincome2404060816Loanassetstoanassociate00000Miningservicesfees1300000000Tradeandotherreceivables221239239239239Other1309050606Intangibleassets135138133128122Total10001000100010001000Others1510101010ProfitlossratioDeferredtaxassets00000EBITDAmargin27400656619589Royaltyreceivable201198198198198EBITmargin257241575529489Currentassets13432531331344786236Netprofitmargin300146402369342Inventories312264318298323Corenetprofitmargin300146402369342Tradereceivables34470713975241819GrowthRoyaltyreceivables1623511746Revenue22155610908779AFSinvestments20000EBITDAnana2431141132Others3242424242EBITnana3977160148Cash6371495150535974006Netprofitnana4741163146Currentliabilities1199826881897930Corenetprofitnana4741163146Tradeandotherpayables665743798814847BalancesheetratioNon-contingentroyaltypayable130000Currentratiox1131385067Interest-bearingliabilities49666666666Receivableturnoverdays4236343445Provisions2517171717Inventoryturnoverdays5553505150Non-currentliabilities46634828241519151915Payableturnoverdays109101100100100Interest-bearingliabilities37093369956456456Netdebttotalequity687316NetcashNetcashNetcashDeferredtaxliabilities135516516516516ProfitabilityProvisions813935935935935ROA9469376297232Non-contingentroyaltypayable00000ROE183139597390291Others68888PersharedataEquity5193614690581043011900EPSA-079060344288246Shareholdersequity5191614490561042811898BVPSA393465686790901MI22222DPSA000070172144123SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE616Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE7