研究报告全文：15Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateJOYYIncYYUSBUYMaintainLookingbeyond1Q23EsoftseasonalityTargetPriceUS490PreviousTPUS500UpDownside365WeexpectJOYYtodeliverin-line4Q22Ewithrev-9YoYunchangedandCurrentPriceUS359bottomlineatUS2mnmargindilutedbyShoplinelossAsatypicalsoftseasonweexpect1Q23Erevdeclined6QoQdraggedbyCNYRamadanChinaInternetSectordisruptionsandcompetitionpressureWithrisingpayingusersandMiddleEaststabilizationBigowouldresumegrowthin2H23EinourviewShoplineslossSophieHuangUS10mnpermonthinFY23Emightdiluteshort-termmarginbutlong-term85239000889trendremainsintactWeexpectFY2324EadjNPMat6168backedbysophiehuangcmbicomhknarrowinglossofHagoLikeeexpectingbreakeveninFY23ETofactorinsoft1Q23EwecutFY22-24Eearningsby00-26withnewSOTP-basedTPatEasonXuUS49byassigning6xFY23EPEtoBigoLive85239000849easonxucmbicomhkExpecting4Q22ElargelyinlineUsermetricsin4Q22EtrendedwellwithMAUatsequentialgrowthinourestimatesWeexpect4Q22rev-9YoYStockDatainwhichfull-quarterShoplinesrevcontributiontopartiallyoffsetBigosrevMktCapUSmn2471declineBigoLivesrevwoulddecline3QoQin4Q22E-18YoYforAvg3mthstoUSmn2278softmomentumintheMiddleEastFIFAWorldCupdisruptionwhilesome52wHighLowUS53552138developedregionsresumedpositivegrowthegAustraliaNewZealandTotalIssuedSharesmn55SourceBloombergUKGivenannualgalaandShoplinelossweexpect4Q22EadjNPMtobedilutedat04inwhichBIGOLivesadjOPMwasestimatedat13ShareholdingStructureTRowePriceGroup960Lookingbeyond1Q23Esoftseasonality1QshouldbeatypicallysoftCapitalGroup467quarterforHuyagivenCNYandRamadandisruptionsAssuchweexpectBlackRock4651Q23Erev-6QoQinwhichFebrecoveredfromJanlevelwhileJanSourceBloombergdeclinedfromDeclevelByregionsUSandEuropeanmktmightseethehighestgrowthfollowedbySEAmktFortheMiddleEast25revmixSharePerformanceweexpectthecompetitionfromTiktokandKuaishoutobegraduallyAbsoluteRelative1-mth-31-91digestedbythemarketWithrisingpayinguserandMiddleEaststabilization3-mth176137weexpectBigoLivetoresumegrowthin2H23EWeexpect1Q23EadjNP6-mth254396atUS20mnwithBigoimprovingOPoffsetbyShoplinelossestimatingSourceBloombergUS10mnpermonthandFXlossLikeeandHagomightachieveabreakeveninFY23EinourviewLookingaheadweexpectadjNPMof12-mthPricePerformanceGroupat6168inFY2324EwithcontinuouscostdisciplineROI-USYYUSCCMPrebaseddrivenSMandnarrowinglossofShopline6050MaintainBUYWeslightlytrimmedFY22E-24Erevby00-26toreflect401Q23EsoftnessandlivestreamingheadwindsamidmacrochallengesandcompetitionJOYYmightinvestmoreinBigoLivetoboostitsmomentumin30FY23EbutexpensescouldbemanageableOurSOTP-basedTPwas20correspondinglyadjustedfromUS50toUS49byassigning6xFY23EPE10toBigoLive0Feb-22May-22Aug-22Nov-22EarningsSummarySourceBloombergYE31DecFY20AFY21FY22EFY23EFY24ERevenueUSmn19182619240924612527AuditorPwCYoYgrowth482365802127NetincomeUSmn16296134151172AdjEPSUS2012192124YoYgrowthNANA394125145ConsensusEPSNA04222226PEx197NA194172151PSx1315111010Yield3975768391SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOANDhttpwwwcmbicomhk15Feb2023Figure14Q22EfinancialpreviewUSmn1Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22EQoQYoYConsensusDiffRevenue64366265166462459658760227-926050Grossprofit200203211224201218220210-47-61220-5Operatingprofit731017616392073NA-220125-396Adjnetprofit26433981748712NA-97630-92AdjEPSUS030004036119024067083012NA-896035-65MarginGrossmargin311307324337322366375348365Operatingmargin-114-1531191106534-12141Adjnetmargin-40-055114728811200450GrowthRevenueYoY881397217168-30-99-98-92-89RevenueQoQ13129-1720-60-44-162730OperatingprofitNANANANANANANANANAAdjnetprofitNANANANANANANANANASourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure2RevenuebreakdownUSmn1Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22EQoQYoYTotalrevenue64366265166462459658760227-92bysegmentLivebroadcasting614630612621590565543525-33-154Others2932384334314477757804byplatformBigo581598569576535503483470-28-184Allother626482888993103132280511SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3QuarterlyrevestimatesFigure4Quarterlymarginestimates680USmn1004035660803064025602062015406001052058001Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22E-55600-10540-201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q22EGPMAdjNPMRevenueYoYSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure5YearlyrevestimatesFigure6Yearlymarginestimates30005040USmn403525003030202520002010150150010-105-2010000FY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24E-30-5500-40-10-50-150-60FY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EGPMAdjNPMRevenueYoYSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE215Feb2023WeslightlytrimmedFY22E-24Erevby00-26toreflect1Q23EsoftnessandlivestreamingheadwindsamidmacrochallengesandcompetitionWesuggesttolookbeyond1Q23EsoftseasonalityandexpectBigoLivetoresumegrowthin2H23EwithMiddleEaststabilizationJOYYmightinvestmoreinBigoLivetoboostitsmomentuminFY23EbutexpensescouldbemanageableInthelongrunwearepositiveonitsbettermarginoutlookbackedbynarrowinglossofotherbizOurSOTP-basedTPwascorrespondinglyadjustedfromUS50toUS49implying233xFY23EPEThenewTPwasderivedfrom1YYLiveUS19bnbasedonproceedsfromBaiduforconservativeestimates2Huyabasedonmarketcapand3BigoLiveUS17bnbyassigning6xFY23EPEmultiplebelowindustrialaverageforitsslowergrowthandcompetitionpressureFigure7CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffUSmnDec-YEFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue24092461252724042562276502-39-86GrossProfit8509009298569221011-07-24-81OperatingProfit81154176120120188-325287-61Netprofit134151172180164206-256-80-162AdjEPSRMB186209238216219263-141-44-95GrossMargin353366368356360366-03ppts06ppts02pptsOperatingMargin346370504768-16ppts16ppts02pptsNetMargin566168756474-19ppts-03ppts-06pptsSourceCMBIGMestimatesBloombergFigure8EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffUSmnDec-YEFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue24092461252724092531261800-28-35GrossProfit85090092985092796600-30-38OperatingProfit811541768115818100-26-27Netprofit13415117213415417700-25-26AdjEPSRMB18620923818621524500-25-26GrossMargin35336636835336636900ppts-01ppts-01pptsOperatingMargin34637034636900ppts00ppts01pptsNetMargin56616856616800ppts00ppts01pptsSourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure9SOTPvaluationSOTPMetricsMultipleValuationUSmnRevAdjNPShareholdingValuationYYLiveBasedonUS19bnfromBaidutransactionvaluationofUS36bn1001900HuyaBasedonmktcap18216BigoLiveFY23E19702866xFY23EPE1001714Total3830NetcashlessUS19bnreceivedfromBaidu1190Holdingdiscount30EquityValueUSmn3514TargetPriceUS49SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE315Feb2023Figure10ValuationcompsCompanyTickerMktcapCurrencyPriceCMBICMBIPEPSFY22-24EPSUSDmnRaitingTPFY21EFY22EFY23EFY21EFY22EFY23ECAGRJOYYYYUS2471USD35BUY4919417215111101013LiveStreamingHelloIncMOMOUS1965USD10HOLD147368631010107JOYYYYUS2471USD35BUY5013715112010100910Inke3700HK326HKD1NANA75846903020215DouyuDOYUUS479USD2NANANA404215050505126HuyaHUYAUS1231USD5BUY8NANA580091009NAAverage9510111708070711Pan-entertainmentTMETMEUS13900USD8BUY1119818016533323010iQIYIIQUS7061USD7BUY4NA345205171514166ChinaLiterature772HK4999HKD39NANA25021218641373418BilibiliBILIUS8863USD22BUY30NANANA282319NAKuaishou1024HK33813HKD61BUY94NANA246252118NAZhihuZHUS1125USD2BUY2NANANA211613NAAverage22419620128242114Average14713913518171512SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE415Feb2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecUSmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecUSmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue19182619240924612527Netincome19130411120146Livebroadcasting18162477222321752182DA8288105121135Others102142186285345ChangeinWC113902779Others575253226139145COGS13781781155915611598OperatingCF524122770373418Grossprofit540838850900929Capex160158163168173SM303280322346342Associates-----AdminExp505468395353347Others990116116116116RD147222154143144InvestingCF830274279283288Others----0Operatingprofit40710787096Equityraised-----Changeofdebts1076----Financialincome8991969696Others1356724---Otherincome82513131FinancingCF279724---Pre-taxincome1478569149175Netchangeincash98687449190129Incometax2826282829Cashbegofyr657175688213731463MI71415--FX-----Shareofequityinv826130--Cashendofyr1850882137314631592Netprofit136390426120146Adjnetprofit16296134151172BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecUSmnFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ENon-currentassets41944236416442114248SalesmixFixedasset402470528575613Livebroadcasting947946923884863Long-terminvestments12391213108310831083Others535477116137Intangibleassets344344344344344Total10001000100010001000Others22082208220822082208GrowthrateCurrentassets39013117358136773815Revenue482365802127Cash1756882137314631592Grossprofit557552145933Depositover3months13571357135713571357EBITNANANANA372Accountreceivable143195180183188NetprofitNANA394125145Others645683672674678PLratiosCurrentliabilities944807747734731Operatingmargin21241032938Borrowings-----Pre-taxmargin07302366069Accountpayable2121191818Adjnetmargin8437566168Taxpayable6161616161EffectivetaxrateNA33249191164Accruedexpenses484492442427422Other378232225227229ReturnsROENA15202224Non-currentliabilities837668668668668ROANA12181922Convertibledebt779609609609609Otherlong-termliabilities5859595959PershareEPSRMB17011591720MI588888888DPSRMB0000000000Totalnetassets63145878633064866665BVPSRMB788812947968988Shareholdersequity63086346681369697147SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE515Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBIGMGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBIGMGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBIGMGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBIGMGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6