研究报告全文：15Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaAutoSectorInventoryriskcouldleadtoabumpyrecoveryOUTPERFORMMaintainChinaspassenger-vehiclePVretailsalesvolumefell43YoYinJan2023inChinaAutoSectorlinewithourpriorforecastof44YoYdeclineWholesalevolumefell33YoYlastmonth30strongerthanourpriorprojectionlargelyduetomuchweaker-SHIJiCFAthan-expectedinventorydestockingandhigherexportvolumePVexportsonly85237618728fell9MoMtoabout250000unitsinJan2023shijicmbicomhkDouWenjingCFAAutomakersonlycutabout26000unitsofinventoriesintheirdealers85269394751showroomsinJan2023basedonourcalculationsdespiteearlyChineseNewdouwenjingcmbicomhkYearwhichhasledtomorethantwomonthsofinventoriesbasedonourprojectedretailsalesvolumeforFebandMar2023Infactnew-energyvehicleunitsChinawholesalevolumebymonthNEVmakersaddedabout31000unitsofinventoriesintotheirdealerslast3000000monthWeestimateChinasNEVinventoryleveltobeaboutthreemonthsWe2500000believeautomakersoverestimatedthepre-buyingeffectin4Q22whichhas2000000madetheexcessinventoriesasalingeringeffectSuchahighinventorylevelincreasestheriskofasimilarsalesplungeoccurredin2H1815000001000000WideningdiscountsasanearlysignofweakprofitabilityDiscountsat500000dealersforalmostallthebrandswerewidenedMoMinJan2023whichcouldJanMarMayJulSepNov201920202021indicateweakprofitabilityforautomakersin1H23Weexpectwidening20222023discountstocontinueuntilinventoriesdroptoareasonablelevelOntheotherSourceCAAMCPCACMBIGMhandinvestorshavegraduallyadjustedtheirexpectationstoaverylowlevelunitsChinaretailsalesvolumebymonthforautomakersprofitabilityin2023Marketsharehasbeenmoreimportant3000000thanprofitabilityassharepricedriverthisyearWehavebeenreinforcing2500000severaltimesthatitisstillatanearlystageofthepricewarreflectedbyhigh2000000inventorylevel1500000Feb2023outlookRetailsalesvolumeinthefirst12daysofFeb2023rose100000057YoYamidChineseNewYeareffectSalesvolumerecoveryinthefirst500000weekafterChineseNewYearwasslightlyslowerthanlastyearWeprojectJanMarMayJulSepNovretailsalesvolumeinFeb2023torise16YoYto134mnunitsWeexpect20192020202120222023wholesalevolumetofall2YoYassuminginventorydestockingSourceCATARCCMBIGMWealsoprojectNEVmarketsharetobe29inFeb2023onaretailbasisStocksCoveredTPNameTickerRatingwhichmakesourFebNEVretailsalesvolumeforecastas039mnunitsLCLiAutoLIUSBUY44LiAuto2015HKBUY172LeadingindicatorsprobablytheonlybrightspotamongJankeymetricsNIONIOUSBUY23LeadingindicatorsincludingnumberofleadscustomerflowandnewordersXpengXPEVUSBUY18Xpeng9868HKBUY70forTeslaNIOLixiangXpengBYDandAionroseMoMinJan2023despiteGeely175HKBUY165GWM2333HKBUY13ChineseNewYearbasedondatafromasamplesizeof96storesin15majorGWM601633CHBUY32citiesThatcouldimplysequentialsalesvolumegrowthforNEVsfromtheendGAC2238HKBUY8GAC601238CHBUY167ofFeb2023WehavealsoseenrisingNEVmarketshareonaretailsalesEVA838HKBUY3Meidong1268HKBUY25volumebasispostChinseNewYearTheweeklyNEVmarketshareduringBYD1211HKHOLD230the2ndweekofFeb2023hasreachedthehighestlevelsinceearlyDec2022BYD002594CHHOLD240SourceBloombergCMBIGMRelatedReportsChinaAutoSectorWeakendingof2022providesaglimpseofhope18Jan2023PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk15Feb2023ContentsCompanyWatchList3GreatWallMotor3Geely3BYD4GuangzhouAutomobileGroup4LeadingIndicators8NumberofleadsRecoverfromDeclow8CustomerflowRiseMoMdespiteChineseNewYear8DecliningnewordersinNov-Deccouldleadtoweaksalesvolumein1Q23錯誤尚未定義書籤NEVSegment11WhenwillNEVmakersstartdestockingamid3-monthinventories11NEVbycity-tierTier-2citieswerethemostresilient11NEVbycitytypeCitieswithICEregistrationcapsonlytookup2012NEVbymodelWulingHongguangMinipostedlargestYoYdecline14BEVbrandsBMWappearedinthetop10listforthefirsttime14PHEVbrandsFewerforeignbrandsinthetop10list15OtherIndustryIndicatorstoWatch17PVbycitytierLower-tiercitiesoutperformedduringSpringFestival17Chinese-brandmarketsharereached475inJan202317Traditionalluxuryoutperformedforfivemonthsinarowonlowbase18PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE215Feb2023CompanyWatchListGreatWallMotorGreatWallswholesalevolumeincludingpick-uptrucksfell45YoYtoabout62000unitsinJan2023underperformingtheoverallindustrys33declineRetailsalesvolumeofPVsandpick-uptruckscombinedfell49YoYtoabout65000unitslastmonthleadingtoaninventoryreductionofabout19000unitsGreatWallwasoneoffewChineseautomakerswhichcutinventoriesinJan2023WeestimateGreatWallsinventoryleveltobeabout120000unitsor15monthsbasedontheaverageretailsalesvolumeinthepastthreemonthsAlthoughlowinventorylevelpaveswayforGreatWallsaplethoraofupcomingnewmodelswebelieveits16mn-unitsalestargetfor2023isstilltooaggressiveWemaintainourfull-yearforecastof125mnunitsSimilartoGeelyhowsuccessfulGreatWallsnewPHEVswouldbein2023couldbekeytoGreatWallsvaluationinourviewDetailsofitsnewNEVstrategieswillbereleasedinMar2023DiscountsatdealerscontinuedtowidenMoMto15-monthhighbasedonourcalculationsWeexpectGreatWallsdiscountsatdealerstocontinuewideningbeforenewmodelsplayameaningfulcontributionFigure1GreatWallMotordiscountsatdealersFigure2GeelydiscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMGeelyGeelyswholesalevolumefell29YoYtoabout103000unitsinJan2023withtheGeometrybranddeclining43YoYNEVsonlyaccountedfor11ofGeelystotalsalesvolumelastmonthRetailsalesvolumeatGeelyfell47YoYtoabout84000unitslastmonthRetailsalesvolumeofGeometrydeclined88MoMamidthepre-buyingeffectfromride-hailingfleetsinDec2022beforetheNEVsubsidyphase-outOnly31ofGeometrysnewcarsweresoldtoindividualcustomersinDec2022versus61inJan2023Geelyaddedinventoriesofabout4700unitsintodealersinJan2023whichpusheditsinventoryleveltoabout19monthsbasedonourestimatesDiscountsatdealersalsowidenedto16-monthhighlastmonthamidagingmodelsAlthoughsalesvolumeinJanwasabitbelowourexpectationwestillmaintainourFY23salesforecastof153mnunitsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE315Feb2023BYDBYDsPVwholesalevolumerose58YoYandfell36MoMtoabout150000unitsinJan2023BYDsretailsalesvolumerose44YoYandfell44MoMtoabout123000unitslastmonthwhichledtoaninventoryrestockingofabout16000unitsAlthoughBYDstillhasordersbacklogofabout15monthsbasedonchannelcheckswecalculateBYDsinventoriesatdealershaveincreasedbyabout200000unitsinthepast12monthsAlthoughBYDsdiscountsatdealersremainlowwebelieveTeslasrecentretailpricecutshaveprobablydentedBYDssalesvolumeoftheHanandSealWeexpectBYDsdiscountstowideninthenextfewmonthsInfactdiscountsfortheHanandsubtlepromotionfortheSealhavealreadystartedBYDhasbeenexpandingitsmodelmixwithwiderpricerangesinordertowithstandthecompetitionItspremiumbrandYangwangdebutedthefirstmodeltheU8inJan2023ItalsolaunchedtheredesignedQinPlusPHEVwiththelowestpriceofbelowRMB100000inFeb2023ThenewordersofthenewQinPlusexceeded15000unitswithinthreedaysWemaintainourFY23PVsalesforecastof245mnunitsforBYDorabout200000unitspermonthonaveragewhichismoreconservativethaninvestorsexpectationofabout3-4mnunitsin2023WebelievesuchmonthlyvolumeforecastisinlinewithBYDsneworderintakeinrecentmonthsFigure3BYDdiscountsatdealersFigure4GACTrumpchiAiondiscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMGuangzhouAutomobileGroupTotalwholesalevolumeatGACGroupfell38YoYinJan2023draggeddownbyGACHonda-51andAion-49GACToyotawasthemostresilientwith24YoYdeclinelastmonthRetailsalesvolumeofAionwasatasimilarlevelasitswholesalevolumeinJan2023whichledtoanalmostunchangedinventorylevelYetAionaddedmorethan52000unitsofinventoriestoitsdealersinthepast12monthsresultinginaninventorylevelofmorethanthreemonthsbasedonourestimatesThatisthemainreasonwhyweonlyproject319000unitsforAionswholesalevolumein2023WemaintainsuchforecastdespiteweakJansalesAlthoughdiscountsatGACToyotasdealersnarrowedslightlyMoMinJan2023theoveralldiscountlevelwasstillatmulti-yearhighDiscountsformodelssuchastheLevinarestillathistoricalhighlevelassuchmodelsfacemorechallengesfromNEVsthanbeforePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE415Feb2023BothGACToyotaandGACHondaaddedinventoriesintodealersinJan2023GACToyotasinventorylevelwasstillbelowonemonthasofJan2023Figure5GACToyotadiscountsatdealersFigure6GACHondadiscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMFigure7BeijingBenzdiscountsatdealersFigure8BMWBrilliancediscountsatdealersSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMSourceThinkerCarCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE515Feb2023Figure9Chinapassenger-vehiclewholesalevolumebyOEMbrandSalesVolumeinJanSalesVolumeYTDYoYYTDMarketYoYMoM2023unitsYTDunitsShareChineseOEMs769827-249-414773135-249530Geely103452-293-292103452-29371GreatWallMotor49839-496-21749839-49634Changan119258-272-262119258-27282SAIC-GM-Wuling25484-702-84725484-70217SAIC55698-176-35955698-17638BYD150164575-360150164575103GACMotorinclAion34179-358-49734179-35823Chery95366173-519536617365Dongfeng24340-580-52624340-58017FAW550995-52455099504BAIC5880-47-6395880-4704NIO8506-119-4628506-11906LiAuto15141234-2871514123410Xpeng5218-596-5385218-59604Weltmeister0-1000-10000-100000Neta6016-454-2286016-45404LeapMotor1139-859-8661139-85901JinkangSeres44694483-5614469448303GermanBrands289498-349-249286190-349196VW140492-384-339140492-38496Audi31518-500-40531518-50022BMW58267-263-3158267-26340Mercedes-Benz44882-221-4144882-22131Jetta11031-34232911031-34208JapaneseBrands216217-511-324216217-511148Honda68656-555-42468656-55547Toyota111801-260-168111801-26077Nissan30090-732-47330090-73221Mazda4024-778-3184024-77803Mitsubishi1168-693-4821168-69301AmericanBrands139040-305-197139040-30595Buick33445-460-29433445-46023Chevrolet12556-514-37912556-51409Cadillac9000-595-6629000-59506Ford13627-370-24113627-37009Lincoln4361-349-1504361-34903Tesla660511041846605110445KoreanBrands23785-371-32823785-37116Hyundai15028-375-40015028-37510Kia8757-365-1528757-36506Others20973-460-32720973-46014PSA4830-635-5024830-63503Volvo10587-369-35010587-36907Jaguar2069801-47206980101LandRover24873141340248731402Total1459340-333-3541459340-3331000SourceCPCACMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE615Feb2023Figure10Chinapassenger-vehiclemonthlyretailsalesvolumebyOEMbrandRetailSalesRetailSalesVolumeYTDYoYMoMVolumeJan2023UnitsYoYYTDUnitsChineseOEMsGeelyinclLynkcoGeometryMaple79754-483-53579754-483Zeekr3942190-6553942190GreatWall52383-535-46852383-535Changan99218-308-42499218-308SAICMotor26250-617-43826250-617GACTrumpchi23533-384-41423533-384GACAion8077-265-6858077-265BYD123435442-442123435442SAIC-GM-Wuling48327-463-35848327-463BAICMagna472-443-710472-443Voyah1051-423-3461051-423NIO10067-11-33110067-11Lixiang15470245-27715470245Xpeng5028-613-5645028-613Weltmeister179-933-673179-933Neta4971-488-7824971-488Leapmotor618-917-958618-917HumanHorizons206-625-80206-625JinkangSeres327128205-699327128205ForeignOEMsSAICVW75188-451-53275188-451FAWVW108741-422-494108741-422BeijingBenz45152-360-17745152-360BMWBrilliance52720-419-20852720-419FAWToyota40043-433-58540043-433GACToyota52945-436-55652945-436DongfengHonda30279-614-55530279-614GACHonda28057-656-66928057-656DongfengNissan52049-519-52652049-519GACMitsubishi1466-743-4211466-743SAICGM47310-630-54847310-630ChanganFord9226-578-5019226-578TeslaChina27207387-34727207387GACFCA14-992-92314-992VolvoAsiaPacific7967-388-5527967-388CheryJLR2964-337-4882964-337BeijingHyundai20480-448-42920480-448YuedaKia5920-581-4355920-581TotalVolumeexclimports1237635-431-4961237635-431ImportsbyBrandLexus9031-493-4119031-493BMW9288-471-149288-471Mercedes-Benz14124-3155114124-315Porsche7261-99-2907261-99Audi2827-475-1742827-475TotalImports56494-365-15856494-365TotalRetailSalesVolume1294129-428-4871294129-428SourceCATARCCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE715Feb2023LeadingIndicatorsTheleadingindicatorsbelowincludingnumberofleadscustomerflowsandnewordersgeneratedforTeslaNIOLixiangXpengBYDandAionarebasedondatafromasamplesizeof96stores15-18storesforeachbrandin15majorcitiesinChinaNumberofleadsRecoverfromDeclowNumberofleadsperstoreforthesesixbrandsroseabout44MoMandfell4YoYonaverageinJan2023Suchnumberrose73MoMforNIOlastmonththemostamongallthesixbrandsfollowedbyXpengs71MoMTeslasnumberofleadsperstoreisstillhighestamongallthesixbrandsTheconversionratiosfromleadstostorevisitremainedflatordeclinedslightlyMoMinJan2023forthesixbrandswhichwasrangedbetween9-12inJan2023Figure11NumberofleadsperstoreonaverageforeachbrandSourceThinkercarCMBIGMFigure12ConversionratiofromleadstostorevisitforeachbrandSourceThinkercarCMBIGMCustomerflowRiseMoMdespiteChineseNewYearCustomerflowperstoreforthesesixbrandsfollowedasimilarpatternasnumberofleadsinJan2023rising50MoMSuchnumberrose90MoMforNIOagainthemostamongallthesixbrandsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE815Feb2023TheconversionratiofromstorevisittoordergenerationremainedflatordeclinedslightlyMoMforthesixbrandsinJan2023SuchratiodroppedthemostforNIOresultinginthelowestfigure4amongallthesixbrandsBYDhadthehighestratio10amongthesixbrandsinJan2023Figure13CustomerflowperstoreonaverageforeachbrandSourceThinkercarCMBIGMFigure14ConversionratiofromstorevisittonewordergenerationforeachbrandSourceThinkercarCMBIGMNewordersappeartorecoverafterDeclowNewordersforthesixbrandsinJan2023returnedtoasimilarlevelinNov2022despiteChineseNewYearTeslahadthehighestnewordersgeneratedperstoreinJan2023althoughtheMoMgrowthof29wasnotsignificantlyhigherthanotherbrandsafteritcutretailpriceson5Jan2023BYDsnewordersgeneratedperstoreinJan2023returnedtoasimilarlevelasSep2022whichcouldimplyamonthlyretailsalesvolumeof160000-200000unitsforthenextseveralmonthsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE915Feb2023Figure15NewordersperstoreonaverageforeachbrandSourceThinkercarCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1015Feb2023NEVSegmentWhenwillNEVmakersstartdestockingamid3-monthinventoriesInJan2023retailsalesvolumeofpassengerNEVsdropped7YoYand59MoMtoabout290000unitswiththemarketsharefallingto227from257in2022amidthesubsidyphase-outandearlyChineseNewYear21-27Jan2023Thetrailing12-monthNEVmarketsharerosefor31monthsinarowto269inJan2023NEVretailsalesvolumeinJan2023was7lowerthanourpriorforecastof315000unitsduetoslower-than-expecteddemandrecoveryposttheChinseNewYearholidayWeprojectNEVmarketsharetorisefromFeb2023aidedbyincreasingstoretrafficamidwideningpricediscountsIndividualcustomersaccountedforabout83oftotalNEVretailsalesinJan2023upfrom70inDec2022TheNEVsubsidyphase-outfromthebeginningof2023pulleddemandaheadespeciallyforride-hailingfleetswhicharemoresensitivetosubsidiesFigure16ProportionofNEVssoldtoindividualcustomersvsthatofICEvehiclesinChinaSourceCATARCCMBIGMWholesalevolumeofpassengerNEVsdropped65YoYand48MoMtoabout390000unitsinJan2023withamarketshareof267NEVwholesalevolumeinJan2023beatourpriorforecastlargelyduetoinventoryrestockingWeestimateabout30000unitsofinventoryNEVswereaddedintodealerslastmonthThatmakesusmoreworriedaboutthemarketvolatilityasabout670000unitsofNEVinventorieshavebeenaddedintodealersinthepast12monthsWeestimatethecurrentindustrywideNEVinventoryleveltobeaboutthreemonthsbasedonourNEVsalesforecastsforthenextfewmonthsInfactthefigurecouldbeevenhigherforindividualNEVmakersbecauseabout18oftotalNEVssoldin2022werethroughdirect-salesmodelwhichissupposedtohaveminimalinventoriesNEVexportsinJan2023werenotinterruptedbyChineseNewYearrising21MoMtoabout69000unitsTeslaaccountedfor57ofChinastotalNEVexportsfollowedbyBYDandMGBothbrandspostedNEVexportsofabout10000unitslastmonthlargelyunchangedMoMNEVbycity-tierTier-2citieswerethemostresilientTier-1citiescontributedabout13oftotalNEVretailsalesinJan2023downfrom18inDec2022asconsumerswentbacktohometownforChineseNewYearandShanghaicancelledgreenlicensesforPHEVsfrom2023only946PHEVsweresoldinShanghaiinPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1115Feb2023Jan2023Tier-2-3and-4andbelowcitiescontributedabout5219and16oftotalNEVretailsalesinJan2023respectivelyupfrom5017and15inDec2022InJan2023tier-2citiesremainedthemostresilientasitsmonthlymarketsharedropped27pptsMoMto270inJan2023theleastamongallcitytiersMarketshareintier-1-3and-4andbelowcitiesfell5-7pptsMoMrespectivelyTheBYDSongPlusPHEVsurpassedtheTeslaModelYtobecomethebest-sellingNEVmodelintier-1and-2citiesTheWulingHongguangMinistilldominateslower-tiercitiesbutwithdecliningmarketshare12intier-3andbelowcitiesinJan2023vs15in2022Marketshareformini-sizeBEVshasbeenfallingasweexpectedMiniBEVsaccountedfor20oftotalBEVretailsalesvolumenationwideinJan2023downfrom26in2022Figure17ChinaNEVmarketsharebycitytiertrailing12-monthbasisMarketShareJul2022Aug2022Sep2022Oct2022Nov2022Dec2022Jan2023Tier1335344352358371384396Tier2226236245253263271283Tier3189196204211219228238Tier4andbelow149156163171178183194Nationwide213222231239249257269SourceCATARCCMBIGMNEVbycitytypeCitieswithICEregistrationcapsonlytookup20WedividedcitiesinChinaintothreetypesbasedonwhethertherearerestrictionsforICEvehicleregistrationordrivingInJan2023only20ofNEVretailsalesvolumecamefromregionswithnewICEvehicleregistrationlimitsBeijingShanghaiShenzhenGuangzhouTianjinHangzhouandHainanprovincedownfrom24in2022againduetoChineseNewYeareffectandShanghaiscancellationofgreenlicenseforPHEVsfrom2023Shanghaiaccountedfor42ofnationwideNEVretailsalesinJan2023downfrom64in2022DespitethatChinasPHEVretailsalesvolumeYoYgrowthstilloutpacedBEVinJan2023whichunderscoredourpreviousargumentthatShanghaisgreenlicensecancellationforPHEVsshouldhavelimiteddentonPHEVsAbout17ofNEVretailsalesvolumewasfromcitieswithdrivingrestrictionsincluding24citieslikeBaodingChongqingWuhanXianetcinJan2023upfrom14in2022Theremaining63ofNEVretailsalesvolumewascontributedbycitieswithoutlicenseordrivingrestrictionsinJan2023risingfrom62in2022PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1215Feb2023Figure18NEVmarketsharebycitytypeSourceCATARCCMBIGMFigure19NEVretailsalesvolumeYoYgrowthcontributionbycitytypeinJan2023SourceCATARCCMBIGMShanghaibarelyretainedtheNEVretailsalescrowninJan2023whileitsNEVmarketsharedroppedthemostamongthetop40cities352inJan2023vs539inDec2022ShenzhenhadthelargestNEVmarketshareamongallthecitiesinChinainJan2023withthesecondlargestNEVretailsalesvolumenationwidePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1315Feb2023Figure20NEVretailsalesvolumeintop20citieswithcorrespondingNEVmarketshareinJan2023SourceCATARCCMBIGMNEVbymodelWulingHongguangMinipostedlargestYoYdeclineTheWulingHongguangMiniEVsretailsalesvolumedroppedabout12000unitsYoYinJan2023thelargestdeclineatamodellevelforNEVretailsalesvolumeinJan2023WulingannouncedapricediscountofRMB3000foritsHongguangMiniEVon31Jan2023Anothermini-sizeBEVtheCheryeQ1droppedabout5200unitsYoYinJan2023Thenationwidebest-sellingNEVmodelinJan2023theBYDSongPlusPHEVenjoyedthemostYoYgrowthonaunitsalesbasislastmonthBYDYuanBEVsincludingYuanPlusandYuanProcombinedstillpostedYoYgrowthofabout6000unitsinJan2023Figure21NEVretailsalesvolumegrowthcontributionbymodelinJan2023SourceCATARCCMBIGMBEVbrandsBMWappearedinthetop10listforthefirsttimeInJan2023totalBEVretailsalesvolumedropped24YoYand65MoMtoabout180000unitsBEVsmarketshareintheNEVsegmentdroppedto621inJan2023from753in2022PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1415Feb2023BYDandTeslasmarketsharefurtherincreasedto29and15intheBEVsegmentinJan2023from20and11in2022respectivelyNIOreplacedGACAiontotakeupthe4thplaceinJan2023withtheleastMoMdeclineamongthetop10brandsBMWsqueezedtothe7thplaceforthefirsttimewiththelargestYoYsalesvolumegrowthamongthetop10brandsAbout60ofBMWsNEVretailsalesvolumeinChinalastmonthwascontributedbythei3VWdroppedtothe12thplacelastmonthwith67MoMretailsalesvolumedeclineWulingGACAionXpengNetaandCheryallunderperformedtheoverallBEVsegmentinJan2023intermsofYoYsalesvolumegrowthFigure22Top10BEVbrandsretailsalesvolumeinChinaJanYTDMarketShareUnitsYoYYTDYTDYoY2023inBEVSegmentTotalBEV182709-241182709-2411000BYD5207731052077310285Tesla2720738727207387149Wuling18892-39418892-394103NIO10067-1110067-1155Changan9399189939918951GACAion8073-2658073-26544BMW648822126488221236Xpeng5028-6135028-61328Neta4144-5734144-57323Chery4095-7034095-70322SourceCATARCCMBIGMPHEVbrandsFewerforeignbrandsinthetop10listInJan2023totalPHEVEREVincludedretailsalesvolumerose48YoYanddropped42MoMtoabout111000unitsPHEVsmarketshareintheNEVsegmentincreasedto379inJan2023from247in2022inlinewithourpreviousforecastthatPHEVssalesvolumegrowthwouldoutpaceBEVsin2023BYDsmarketshareinthePHEVsegmentdroppedslightlyto59inJan2023from61in2022HoweverBYDandDenzasmarketsharecombinedroseto64inJan2023asBYD-controlledDenzabrandclimbedtothe3rdplacewithonlyonemodelonsaleLixiangsmarketshareinthePHEVsegmentroseto139inJan2023from104in2022LiAutolaunchedanewmid-tolarge-size5-seatSUVtheL7andaddedalower-pricetrimlevelfortheL8theL8Airon8Feb2023whichcouldfurtheraidthecompanyssalesvolumeandmarketsharein2023ChanganDeepalclimbedtothe4thpositioninthePHEVsegmentinJan2023whileHuawei-backedAitodroppedtothe6thplaceChinesebrandscombinedmarketshareinthePHEVsegmentroseto902inJan2023from871in2022OnlythreeforeignbrandsMercedes-BenzVWandBMWarestillinthetop10listvsfourlastyearNissanwasoutofthetop10inJan2023WeexpectsuchtrendtocontinuebasedonthemodelpipelinePLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1515Feb2023Figure23Top10PHEVEREVincludedbrandsretailsalesvolumeinChinaJanYTDMarketShareinUnitsYoYYTDYTDYoY2023PHEVSegmentTotalPHEV1113414781113414781000BYD6584477865844778591Lixiang1547024515470245139Denza54361248954361248949Deepal3342NA3342NA30Mercedes-Benz2709-2212709-22124Aito2619186071261918607124VW2218-1442218-14420Changan1568527156852714BMW1188-6771188-67711LynkCo1113-4531113-45310SourceCATARCCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1615Feb2023OtherIndustryIndicatorstoWatchPVbycitytierLower-tiercitiesoutperformedduringSpringFestivalTotalPVretailsalesvolumeplunged43YoYand49MoMinJan2023Tier-3andbelowcitiesoutperformedtier-1and-2citiesintermsofYoYgrowthinJan2023amidChineseNewYeareffectAlthoughthecity-leveldentbytheCOVIDrecurrencelastyearcouldbeunpredictabletier-1and-2citiesweremoreresilientThepicturecouldbemixedthisyearinourviewFigure24ChinaautoretailsalesgrowthbycitytierRetailSalesJulAugSepOctNovDecJanTrailing12YoYGrowth2022202220222022202220222023MonthsTier1149246257168140132-486-32Tier210622411151-14132-432-33Tier36916541-84-23867-394-114Tier4andbelow3546-29-161-194116-428-125Nationwide8817686-12-79115-428-70SourceCATARCCMBIGMTheChineseNewYeareffectdominatedthecity-levelretailsalesvolumeYoYgrowthinJan2023whichcouldcontinueinFeb2023WeseenoindicationforfuturesalesvolumegrowthinthesecitiesbasedontheJandataFigure25PVretailsalesvolumeYoYgrowthcontributionbycityinJan2023SourceCATARCCMBIGMChinese-brandmarketsharereached475inJan2023RetailsalesvolumeforChinesebrandsdropped37YoYinJan2023outpacingtheoverallindustryby6pptsExcludingNEVsretailsalesvolumeofChinese-brandICEvehiclesfell47YoYinJan2023strongerthantheoverallICEsegmentby2pptsSurprisinglyChinese-brandNEVretailsalesvolumedropped10YoYinJan2023underperformedtheoverallNEVsegmentby27pptsThetrailing12-monthmarketshareforChinesebrandsroseto441inJan2023WeprojectChinesebrandstogainmarketshareforathirdsuccessiveyearin2023aidedbyNEVsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1715Feb2023Figure26Chinesebrandsmarketsharetrailing12-monthbasisSourceCATARCCMBIGMTraditionalluxuryoutperformedforfivemonthsinarowonlowbaseThetotalretailsalesvolumeoftraditionalluxurybrandsdropped41YoYand30MoMto021mnunitsinJan2023outperformingtheoverallindustryby2pptsYoYand19pptsMoMrespectivelyamidamilderpre-buyingeffectattheendof2022Wehavebeenexpectingaslightunderperformanceforluxurybrandscomparedwiththeoverallindustryin2023Luxurymarketshareonatrailing12-monthbasisremainedlargelystableMoMat148asofJan2023Figure27Chinatraditionalluxuryautomarketsharebycitytiertrailing12-monthbasisMarketShareJul2022Aug2022Sep2022Oct2022Nov2022Dec2022Jan2023Tier1215212212213211209207Tier2182181182183184184183Tier3102102104106107108108Tier4andbelow68686970717273Nationwide145144145147148149148SourceCATARCCMBIGMBMWtooktheNo1placeamongtraditionalluxurybrandsinChinaasofJan2023followedbyMercedes-BenzTheGermanBigThreeMercedes-BenzBMWAudiaccountedformarketshareof75asofJan2023upfrom72in2022ThecompetitionbetweenBMWandMercedes-BenzcouldbeinterestingagainthisyearasBMWhassetamoreaggressivesalestarget09mnunitsin2023vsMercedes-Benzs085mnunitsWearemorepessimisticthanbothbrandssalestargetsVolvosurpassedCadillacandLexustobethe3rdplaceinJan2023whichmaynotbesustainableinourviewThecompetitionbetweenLexusandCadillacforthe4thplacethisyearcouldalsobeintensifyingPorschetargetsaslightYoYsalesvolumedeclineto90000unitsin2023althoughweexpectedittobeoneoffewtraditionalluxurybrandstopostsalesvolumegrowthin2023SmartreplacedMINItobethe10thplacewithitsSmart1EVrampingupPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1815Feb2023Figure28Top10traditionalluxuryautobrandsretailsalesvolumeinChinaJanYTDMarketShareinUnitsYoYYTDYTDYoY2023LuxurySegmentTotalLuxury212553-411212553-4111000BMW62008-42762008-427292Mercedes-Benz60867-35260867-352286Audi36837-49336837-493173Volvo9746-3659746-36546Lexus9031-4939031-49342Cadillac8380-6028380-60239Porsche7261-997261-9934LandRover6286-1896286-18930Lincoln5192-4135192-41324Smart3174NA3174NA15SourceCATARCCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1915Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE20