>> 招银国际-China Property Sector – Good news is bad news？-230216
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研究报告全文：16Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchSectorUpdateChinaPropertySectorGoodnewsisbadnewsOUTPERFORMMaintainPropertysectorsawadecentcorrectiononarticlesfromEconomicdailyandQiushithatreiteratedpropertypriceincreaseandfinancialsystemriskIthasChinaPropertySectorsparkedthemarketfearofpolicydirectionchangerightinthemiddleofimprovingJeffreyZengsalesdataandmomentumWeagreethatthebetterthedatathelesspolicy85239163727supportneededbutpropertypolicywillcontinuetostaysupportiveinthecomingjeffreyzengcmbicomhkmonthsas1thenewhomesalesremainedfragileandstilldeclined23YoYYTDdespitetherecentimprovementThereforeitistooearlytohavethepolicyMiaoZhangturningnegativethatmayputpropertyinvestmentGDPgrowthunderpressure852376189102PropertypriceintheexistinghomemarketremainsrelativelystableBasedonzhangmiaocmbicomhkeightcitieswetrackedpropertypriceinGuangzhouHangzhourebounded1-2fromthebottomwhiletheothersixcitiesjuststartedtoseepricestabilizationBellaLiafterthe10-30correctionin2022Inthisconnectionwedonotseethestrong85237576202reasontoreversethepolicysupport3OurchannelcheckwithexpertsalsobellalicmbicomhkshowsthearticleshavelittlemeaningfulimpactonthecurrentpolicytrendevidencedbyPBOCssupportivestancetoboostdemandandhelpPOEsThecorrectionprovidesgoodopportunityforsubsectorswithlong-termthesisRelatedReportsexistinghomemarketcompletionshoppingmallsin2023Forstockspick1ChinaPropertyServiceSectorwepickBEKEBEKEUSBUYthekeybeneficiaryofexistinghomesales2023ayearformarketleadersandboompropertymanagementYuexiuService6626HKandCOPH2669HKsurvivorsonearningsanddevelopersCRLLongforonshoppingmallsandBinjiangHuafa2ChinaPropertySectorPropertyHoldingspotentialpolicyrelaxationWeeklyhopesarereturningpost-CNYPost-CNYsalescontinuedtoimprovewithsecondarysalesgrowth3CRLand1109HKfurtheracceleratedBasedondailydatanewhomeandsecondarysalesOutperformingFY22Epromisingimprovedto-1744YoYpost-CNY28Janto14FebcomparedtotheFY23Eandnot-far-fetchingFY25Etargetsimilarperiodin2022vs-2515pre-CNYBothcontinuedtoboostmarketconfidencestowardsmorepositiveoutlooktowardsoverallsales4ChinaPropertySectorPropertyLookingforwardwestillexpectsalesinFebtocontinueseeingSTrecoveryWeeklyWeakconstructionresumptionratedraggedbysupportedby1lowbase2Pent-updemandafterpandemicandCNYOurpropertysalesleadingindicatorGAINalsopointedtoaquickreboundinFebwithgenuinesearchup27YoYYTD3Continuingpolicyrelaxationwith5COLI688HKFY22EpreviewpagenotyetturnedWuhanChangshaeasedpurchaserestrictionsAssuchwereiteratethatpolicyrelaxationinTier1citieswouldbethekeytodetermineMarchsales6ChinaPropertySectorCNYandbeyondCrowdedmallspent-upbuyersbutoverbuilthousesConstructionactivitysawquickpick-upAccordingto100NJZschannelcheckamong12220projectstheworkresumptionrateincreasedto765asof14Feb38pptWoWvs69inthesameperiodof2022Thestronger-than-expectedimprovementwasmainlyduetothepick-upinpropertyconstructionafterpropertysalessentimentturnedpositiveHoweverthepropertyconstructionprogressremainsslowonliquidityissueswhileinfrastructureandgovernmentarebetteroffafter2023specialbondgraduallyinpositionByregionEastCentralSouthwestChinaoutperformedtherestofregionsbackedbytheinfrastructureandgovernmentbuildingsCementpricerebounded103WoWMoMtoRMB451tonItwasmainlydrivenbyrelativelystronginfrastructuredemandandoff-peakproductiononthesupplysideIntermsofregionsGuangdongledthepriceincreasepartlybecauseithastakenup135ofthespecialbondquotaforinfrastructurehighestamongallregionsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk16Feb2023Steelrebarpricewentdown05WoWtoRMB4233permtasof14FebItwasduetothetemporaryoversupplyassteelproducerincreasedsupplyafterCNYexpectingastrongdemandafterwardsMoststeelmilersaretryingtocleartheinventorythetransactionvolumeincreasedby22WoWbutataslightlylowerpriceFigures1YTDsalesdeclined23YoYvs-22-25inDecNov2022SourceWindCMBIGMFigure2YTDsecondarysalesincreased23YoYvs-1225inDecNov2022SourceWindCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE216Feb2023Figure3LeadingindicatorsuggestsbettersalesYTD2023120leadingindicator-1monthleading1008060272023YTD40200-20-40-27-60Jul-15Jul-16Jul-17Jul-18Jul-19Jul-20Jul-21Jul-22Apr-17Apr-19Apr-21Oct-14Apr-15Oct-15Apr-16Oct-16Oct-17Apr-18Oct-18Oct-19Apr-20Oct-20Oct-21Apr-22Oct-22Jan-16Jan-17Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23Jan-15SourceNBSCMBIGMFigure4CompsheetofdevelopersSourceBBGCMBIGMFigure5CompsheetofPMcompaniesSourceBBGCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE316Feb2023Figure6CompsheetofpropertysupplychainSourceBBGCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE416Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5
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