>> 招银国际-ZhongAn (6060 HK) FY22 preview： 2H22 UW margin improvement-230221
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研究报告全文：MN21Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateZhongAn6060HKFY22preview2H22UWmarginimprovementTargetPriceHK3382ZhongAnwillreportFY22resultson21MarchTueaftermarketcloseWeexpectPreviousTPHK3382toseeHoHimprovementofcombinedratioin2H22aswellasnarrowedlossesUpDownside467fromvirtualbankingandtechnologyexportbusinessOvertheweekendZhongCurrentPriceHK2305AnissuedaprofitalertstatingthatthecompanywillreportanetlossofRMB13bn-15bnforFY22ThenetlosswasprimarilyduetoareductionininvestmentincomeChinaInsuranceamountedtoRMB1bn-12bnresultedfromachangeinaccountingpolicyastheGigiCHENCFAstrongrevenueandassetgrowthofvirtualbankingandtechnologybusinessin85239163739FY22triggeredtheearlyadoptionofIFRS9ExcludingtheimpactofIFRS9gigichencmbicomhkadoptionhoweverZhongAnwouldhaveactuallyrecordedapproxRMB03bnnetprofitin2H22inourviewWebelievetheunderwritingUWmarginfurtherNikaMAimprovedHoHin2H22comparedto1H22andexpectFY22combinedratiotobe85239000805nikamacmbicomhk986WeestimatethatnetlossesfromvirtualbankingbusinessandtechnologybusinesswillfurthernarrowHoHin2H22astheeconomiesofscaleemergingwithStockDatastrongrevenuegrowthReiterateBUYMktCapHKmn302460Avg3mthstoHKmn229Stronggrowthofvirtualbankingandtechnologyexporttriggeredearly52wHighLowHK30551448adoptionofIFRS9WiththestronggrowthofvirtualbankingandtechnologyTotalIssuedSharesmn14200SourceFactSetexportbusinesstheinsurance-relatedliabilitiesofZhongAnfellbelow80ofitstotalliabilitiesin2022ThereforeZhongAnisnolongerqualifiedfortheShareholdingStructuretemporaryexemptionofHKFRS9HKversionofIFRS9andhadtoadoptedAntGroup135IFRS9inFY22oneyearaheadtotheadoptionofIFRS17TheearlyadoptionTencentComputerSystem102SourceHKExofIFRS9endedupinhighervolatilityininvestmentincomethroughPLandledtoanegativeimpactofRMB1bn-12bnonnetprofitsgainedinFY22SharePerformanceAbsoluteRelativeInsuranceExpectfurtherimprovementsonUWmarginWeestimatethe1-mth-208-1753-mth135-11combinedratiowillfurtherimprovebyaround1pptHoHin2H22andtheUW6-mth22-18marginreached986inFY22duetocontinualdecreasesonexpenseratioonSourceFactSetbackoffavourableshiftsinchannelmixandtheeconomiesofscaleLookinginto12-mthPricePerformanceFY23weexpectthepremiumgrowthwillpickuptoover20YoYdrivenbyarecoveryofdigitallifestyleandconsumerfinancesegmentsTheUWmarginislikelytocontinuouslyimproveinFY23astheexpenseratiotrendsdownValuationZhongAnistradingat16xPBFY23Eand10xPSFY23EWeexpectthemarginsacrossthreemajorbusinesslinestofurtherimproveinFY23E-FY24EandvirtualbankingandtechnologybusinesstoturnprofitableinFY24EGivenimprovedprofitabilityenhancedbyrobustrevenuegrowthwebelievethefundamentalchangeswillsupportfurthersharepriceperformanceEarningsSummarySourceFactSetYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24EAuditorPwCNetprofitRMBmn5541165142111271928EPSReportedRMB038079097077131ConsensusEPSRMBna079032076110PremiumincomeRMBmn1621518885221302694633003Premiumincomegrowth267165172218225Combinedratio1025996986983982PBx1716171614PSx1614131008Dividendyield0000000000ROE36728870110SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk21Feb2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnTotalincome151241849321940228772901835423Premiumswrittengross146301670920480236502861434861Premiumsearnednet128011621518885221302694633003Investmentincome177615272068954964964Realizedgainslosses17026127105800Otheroperatingincome37777686185211091455Losses156911831321074238892821634050Selling8625877410935127311521018551Underwritingcommissions91014071771145117192066Otheroperatingexpense61568132836897061128613433Pretaxincome61114782910128021373Incometaxes28108728870119Minorityinterest185299407497394675Netincome4545541165142111271928Netincomeavailabletocommon2708531572191815212602BALANCESHEET2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnAssetsCashshort-termIinvestments291584184301320932093209Investments594624629469469469Totalfixedincomesecuritiesinvestment136882159725640186321863218632Totalequitysecuritiesinvestment6221612011813881388138813Realestateassets455344240751850Premiumbalancereceivables383848195297647215644305Investmentinunconsolidatedsubs613315560418418418Defferedtaxassets000000Intangibleassets489481477583141388Goodwill433413Otherassets20912950281334368302286Totalassets309084567351772421103409424507LiabilitiesshareholdersequityInsurancepolicyliabilities754385479304667995123324STdebtcurrportionLTdebt405040945548554855485548Long-termdebt39867866645668667356793Provisionforriskscharges000000Defferedtaxliabilities00627489107Otherliabilities2411885311082114631275614308Totalliabilities14402282803264224438151783433Totalcommonequity149121570516748154721656118451Commonstockordinarycapital147014701470147014701470Retainedearnings31352581145828371710218Equityeeserves165761681716737168391680116763Totalshareholdersequity149121570516748154721656118451Minorityinterest159416882382220023552624Totalequity165061739319130176721891621075Totalliabilitiesshareholdersequity309084567351772421103409424507PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE221Feb2023PERSHAREDATA2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecDPS000000000000000000EPSReportedna038079097077131DilutedEPSna017052063050085Noofsharesbasic147014701470147014701470PROFITABILITY2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecReturnonequityROE303672-8870110ReturnonassetROA161424-303066Combinedratio11331025996986983982Lossratio674541576575564562Expenseratio459484420411419420VALUATION2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecPB181716171614PS201614131008Divyield000000000000Divpayout000000000000SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE321Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE4
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