研究报告全文：MN21Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateGlodon002410CHClearoperatingleveragefromSaaSTargetPriceRMB7856GlodondeliveredastrongsetofFY22withrevenueofRMB659bn17YoYPreviousTPRMB7856andnetprofitofRMB963mn46YoYWeareencouragedtoseethatUpDownside254constructioncostingSaaSnewlysignedcontractamounthasattainedtheCurrentPriceRMB6264RMB4bntargetWearepositivetoseeimprovingmarginsfromoperatingleveragealthoughproject-basedconstructionmanagementbusinessFY22ChinaSoftwareITServicesrevenuemissedasCOVIDresurgenceinFY4Q22hascausedtemporarydelaysMarleyNGANindeliveryChinaSaaSmkt-weightedistradingat687xFY23EEVsales1-85239163719SDbelow3-yearmeanof1205xKingdee268HKandGlodon002410CHmarleyngancmbicomhkremainasourtoppicksBowenLIPrelimFY22largelyin-lineGlodonannouncedpreliminaryFY22results85237618957on20FebRevenuewasRMB6587mn17YoY4belowourandlibowencmbicomhkconsensusforecastNetprofitwasRMB963mn46YoYin-linewithconsensusbutbeatourestimateby9WethinkthebetterthanexpectedStockDatanetprofitwasdrivenbymarginimprovementdueto1increasinghigh-MktCapRMBmn746229Avg3mthstoRMBmn597margincostingrevenueexposureand2enhancedoperatingleverageas52wHighLowRMB68334179SaaSmigrationcompletedTotalIssuedSharesmn11913SourceFactSetConstructioncostingSaaSnewlysignedcontractattainedRMB4bntargetGlodonsFY22constructioncostingrevenuewasRMB4773mnShareholdingStructure2516YoYNewlysignedcontractwasRMB3901mn26YoYin-DiaoZhizhong-Chairman160linewithpriorguidanceofRMB4bnWeareencouragedtoseestrongOtherco-founders163SourceCompanydatagrowthinnewlysignedcontractasitimpliedabetterearningsandcashflowvisibilityamidmacrouncertaintyOtherSaaSmetricsincludingunearnedSharePerformancerevenuemigrationandrenewalratewillbethefocusinMarwhenGlodonAbsoluteRelativeannouncesfullsetsofresults1-mth-55-443-mth16975ConstructionmanagementRevenuemissedas4Q22wasaffectedby6-mth287293COVIDresurgenceFY22constructionmanagementrevenuewasSourceFactSetRMB1322mn966YoYmissingourestimateby16Although9M2212-mthPricePerformanceconstructionmanagementrevenuegrew3246YoYCompanystargetFY22E30YoYCOVIDresurgenceinFY4Q22hasaffectedtheprojectdeliveryWethinktherevenuemisswaslargelyanticipatedandthedeliveryshouldhaveacceleratedinFY1Q23MaintainBUYWehavenotchangedourFY22-24EearningsMaintainBUYwithtargetpriceofRMB7856basedon11xFY23EEVsalesin-linewith3-yearmeanChinaSaaSmkt-weightedistradingat687xFY23ESourceFactSetEVsales1-SDbelow3-yearmeanof1205xWecontinuetopreferKingdee268HKandGlodon002410CHasourChinaSaaStoppicksRelatedreportsEarningsSummary1Glodon002410CH-Solid3Q22despiteshort-termGPMdeclineYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24E28Oct2022linkRevenueRMBmn400556196883792192972Glodon002410CH-PenetratingYoYgrowth131403225151174intobasicinfrastructuresegmentNetprofitRMBmn330466108839107361375624Aug2022linkEPSReportedRMB0290560740901153ChinaSoftwareITServicesYoYgrowth374966317215281HighervisibilityinSaaSalongConsensusEPSRMB028056082112146Chinacloudvaluechain28Jun2022linkPEx20891220844695542EVSalesx139101837160Yield0404030303ROE68108149166184Netgearing749700544591661SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk21Feb2023FocusChartsFigure1RevenueandgrowthFigure2SaaSnewlysignedcontractRMBmnRMBmn250060130020012001805011002000100016014040900150080012070030100600100050080204006050030040102001002000001Q174Q173Q182Q191Q204Q203Q212Q221Q184Q183Q192Q201Q214Q213Q22TotalrevenueYoYSaaSnewlysignedcontractYoYSourceCompanydataSourceCompanydataFigure3ChinaSaaSvaluationFigure4ChinaSaaSperformancex252502020015150101005-500Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Oct-21Apr-20Oct-20Apr-21Apr-22Oct-22Jun-20Jun-21Jun-22Feb-22Feb-20Feb-21Dec-22Dec-20Dec-21Aug-20Aug-22Aug-21-50Mktcap-weighted1-yrfwdEVsalesMean002410CH600588CH268HKMean1SD909HK3738HK8083HKMean-1SD2013HKAvgSourceBloombergCMBIGMSourceBloombergCMBIGMFigure5SaaSunearnedrevenueFY21FY22FY22EFY22ERMBmnactualactualYoYCMBIversusconsensusversusRevenue56196587176883-46869-4Netincome661963468849975-1EPSRMB05608247074100820RevenuebreakdownCMBIversusGuidanceversusConstructioncosting38134713244749-1ConstructionManagement12061322101567-16SourceCompanydataPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE221Feb2023ValuationGlodon002410CHBUYTPRMB7856WemaintainBUYwithunchangedtargetpriceofRMB7856basedon11xFY23EEVsalesin-linewiththree-yearmeanFigure6PeersvaluationMarketSalesEPSCapPriceTPEVsalesxFCFmarginCAGRCAGRCompanyTickerRatingUSmnLCLCFY22EFY23EFY22EFY23EFY21-24EFY21-24EGlodon002410CHBUY1088662647856837113131828MYC909HKHOLD1532613639282414-275naYonyou600588CHHOLD1181023582224776213417naKingdee268HKBUY71011602235693754119naKingsoft688111CHNR1899328229NA31123459302825OfficeAutodeskADSKUSNR4746521998NA1119736291323CoStarCSGPUSNR315437756NA12811222191418Mean1159526161719Median897521181819SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure712MforwardEVsaleschartFigure812MforwardEVsalesbandxRMBmn201816000016140000141200001210000010800008600006400004200002--Apr-20Oct-22Oct-20Apr-21Oct-21Apr-22Jun-20Jun-21Jun-22Feb-22Feb-20Feb-21Dec-20Dec-21Dec-22Aug-20Aug-21Aug-22Oct-22Apr-20Oct-20Apr-21Oct-21Apr-22Jun-20Jun-21Jun-22Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Aug-21Dec-20Dec-21Aug-22Dec-22Aug-20EV65x94x1-yrfwdEVSALESMean123x153x182xMean1SDMean-1SDSourceBloombergCMBIGMSourceBloombergCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE321Feb2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue354140055619688379219297Costofgoodssold371454893126715171809Grossprofit317035504727561564047488Operatingexpenses283231423978460151575946Sellingexpense110212561587182220412357Adminexpense8208791099129114401663RDexpense96910831333153917311990Others597541515564Operatingprofit338408748101412481542Investmentgainloss23100777Interestincome01753323241Interestexpense4100000Foreignexchangegainloss001000Otherincomeexpense9551554032Pre-taxprofit28441074998412331544Incometax292931427062Minorityinterest2051585790106Netprofit23533066188410741376BALANCESHEET2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets295054205122501757566962Cashequivalents223147974050329640745307Accountreceivables591475560671623585Inventories212671536272Othercurrentassets106121441997997997Non-currentassets321741274946560461646675PPE8609941219152922262873InvestmentinJVsassos233255326342342342Intangibles114816641979245123152178Othernon-currentassets97612141421128212821282Totalassets6167954710068106221192013637Currentliabilities280928583637390943714951Short-termborrowings108930000Accountpayables106817402395287333363915Othercurrentliabilities65311151242103610361036Non-currentliabilities9131158195195195Long-termborrowings000000Othernon-currentliabilities9131158195195195Totalliabilities281829893795410445665146Sharecapital112911861189119111911191Capitalsurplus50931353174286928692869Retainedearnings170919572432298138164953Otherreserves781251007983983983Totalshareholdersequity326964025788605768938030Minorityinterest80156485461461461Totalequityandliabilities6167954710068106221192013637PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE421Feb2023CASHFLOW2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation28441074998412331544Depreciationamortization282229158225280335Taxpaid292931427062Changeinworkingcapital312784525385502607Others20848220039700Netcashfromoperations64118761601115419452423InvestingCapitalexpenditure243439720844839845Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments623903000Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term221993164800investmentsOthers101101600Netcashfrominvesting22769715411506839845FinancingDividendpaid301157354357238238Netborrowings11210883000Proceedsfromshareissues23304063629500Others0395107436490106Netcashfromfinancing3891400795426328345NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear221222314797405032964074Exchangedifference514132400Cashattheendoftheyear223147974050329640745307GROWTH2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRevenue219131403225151174Grossprofit167120331188140169Operatingprofit389206835355230236Netprofit4654051001337215281PROFITABILITY2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin895887841816808805Operatingmargin95102133147157166ReturnonequityROE7368108149166184GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx030707050607Currentratiox111914131314Receivableturnoverdays472486336327298237Inventoryturnoverdays162232332626Payableturnoverdays110115861556152415371537VALUATION2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecPE148420891220844695542PB10711114112310893Divyield030404030303EV594946558432565875573412565635553300EVSales168139101837160SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE521Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6