研究报告全文：MN22Feb2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdatePAGoodDoctor1833HK2022previewSolidbusinessdevelopmentthroughthebumpy2022TargetPriceHK2815DuetothenegativeimpactsfromCOVIDandreductionoflow-synergybusinessPreviousTPHK2840withitsStrategy20ContinuumweexpectPAGoodDoctorPAGDtoUpDownside450experienceatemporaryrevenuedeclineof14YoYin2022EHoweverweCurrentPriceHK1942expecttheCompanytodelivergoodgrossprofitmarginGPMimprovementsandcostsavingsin2022EasitsStrategy20transitionstartedtotakeeffectChinaHealthcareGoingforwardweexpectPAGDsbusinesstoregainpositivegrowthof23JillWUCFA20YoYin2023E24Econsideringthepost-pandemicbusinessresumption85239000842andthegrowingpenetrationrateofPAGDsmedicalservicesinChinajillwucmbicomhkhealthcareindustryAccordinglyweforecastPAGDsadjustednetlossestonarrowtoRMB969mnRMB645mnRMB137mnin2022E23E24EBenchenHUANGCFAhuangbenchencmbicomhkSolidbusinessdevelopmentthroughthebumpy2022PAGDsStrategy20Continuumhaddeliveredinitialpositiveresultsin2022despiteStockDatabusinessinterruptioncausedbyCOVIDlockdownsandthechangeofMktCapHKmn227119Avg3mthstoHKmn223COVIDcontrolpoliciesinChinaThecumulativenumberofcorporateclients52wHighLowHK31651370servedbyPAGDreached749asofJun2022vs520asofDec2021andTotalIssuedSharesmn11188coveredmorethan2mnpaidemployeesandcorporateclientsvsmorethanSourceFactSet1mnasofDec2021indicatinganincreasingpenetrationofPAGDsShareholdingStructureservicesamongcorporateclientsandtheiremployeesWiththeliftofPingAnInsurance394COVID-relatedtravelrestrictionsinChinaweexpectPAGDsoff-lineSoundaProperties94corporatecustomeracquisitionstofullyresumetoitsnormalpacein2023SourceHKExandbeyondInthemeantimePAGDfurtherstrengtheneditsonlineandSharePerformanceofflinecapabilitiesviamajoracquisitionsInOct2022PAGDenteredintoAbsoluteRelativeanagreementtoacquire100equityinterestsofScientiaSmartHealth1-mth-92-34TechwithaconsiderationofUS97mnenhancingPAGDsservice3-mth36-101capabilitiesinsmartbigdataplatformchronicdiseasemanagementand6-mth27-20SourceFactSetconnectionswithdoctorsandmedicalinstitutions12-mthPricePerformanceExpecttoseecontinuousmarginimprovementsGPMincreasedto273in1H22from233in2021duetoPAGDsproactivereductioninitsonlinemallbusinessBesidessellingmarketingexpenseratioalsodroppedto185in1H22from240in2021drivenbytheinherentcostsavingsandeconomiesofscalefromprovidinghealthmanagementservicesforcorporateclientsWeanticipatetoseesimilartrendsinGPMandsellingmarketingexpenseratioin2H22EWiththerevenuestructureoptimizationandcostsavingeffectwithinitsStrategy20ContinuumweSourceFactSetseegoodchancesforPAGDtosequentiallyincreaseGPM275305318for2022E23E24Eandnarrowadjustednetlossin2022-24ETheCompanyisontracktogeneratepositivenetprofitfrom2025EinourviewMaintainBUYOurTPremainedlargelyunchangedatHK2815basedona10-yearDCFmodelWACC111terminalgrowthrate30toreflectPAGDslong-termgrowthprospectEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenueRMBmn68667334633578189372YoYgrowth35568136234199NetprofitRMBmn94915391051752275AdjustednetprofitRMBmn5161417969645137EPSAdjustedRMB050129087058012ConsensusEPSRMBnana093065028PSx2927312521Netgearing498209178130114SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk22Feb2023Figure1EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue633578189372644079479635-164-163-272GrossProfit172923832976175924203096-173-156-389OperatingProfit-1092-789-313-1114-807-291nmnmnmAdjustednetprofit-969-645-137-990-665-116nmnmnmAdjustedEPSRMB-087-058-012-089-059-010nmnmnmGrossMargin272930483175273130463214-003ppt002ppt-039pptOperatingMargin-1724-1009-334-1729-1016-302006ppt007ppt-032pptAdjustednetMargin-1529-826-146-1538-837-120009ppt011ppt-026pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24EFY22EFY23EFY24ERevenue633578189372674278719106-604-067292GrossProfit172923832976181822402736-489639875OperatingProfit-1092-789-313-1233-904-446nmnmnmAdjustednetprofit-969-645-137-1078-750-297nmnmnmAdjustedEPSRMB-087-058-012-093-065-028nmnmnmGrossMargin272930483175269628453005033ppt202ppt170pptOperatingMargin-1724-1009-334-1829-1148-490105ppt140ppt156pptAdjustednetMargin-1529-826-146-1599-952-326070ppt127ppt180pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure3Valuationonrisk-adjustedDCFvaluationDCFValuationinRMBmn2022E2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031EEBIT116282935335361610441718274042346287Taxrate-030000150150150150150150150EBIT1-taxrate11668293533005248881460232935995344DA42536167110176271406586818-Changeinworkingcapital192901291001642624056058741219-Capex80808080808080808080FCFF13969465011873907221247205032314863Terminalvalue62024Terminalgrowthrate30WACC111CostofEquity140CostofDebt50EquityBeta10RiskFreeRate30MarketRiskPremium110TargetDebttoAssetratio300EffectiveCorporateTaxRate150TerminalvalueRMBmn21697TotalPVRMBmn24485NetdebtRMBmn2287MinorityinterestRMBmn0EquityvalueRMBmn26771ofsharesmn1119PricepershareRMBpershare2393PricepershareHKpershare2815SourceCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE222Feb2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue506568667334633578189372Costofgoodssold389450025627460654356396Grossprofit117118641707172923832976Operatingexpenses213127843350282131713289Sellingexpense120715871757117212121172Adminexpense107510171846198022092367Others151180253332250250Operatingprofit95991916431092789313ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV2712239704040NetInterestincomeexpense2531001591157778Pre-taxprofit73494115241047752275Incometax13716400Minorityinterest1301211Netprofit74794915391051752275Adjustednetprofit6955161417969645137Grossdividendsnanana000BALANCESHEET2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets84781525612757121001151712313Cashequivalents496579203065291327152996Accountreceivables64910581554160713881714Inventories75160398463379447FinancialassetsatFVTPL184935664937493749374937Othercurrentassets93925512803218020982219Non-currentassets390133075124506650284981PPE186166140178205223InvestmentinJVsassos510451546475435355Intangibles106102106815631Goodwill967970970970970970Othernon-currentassets213216173362336233623402Totalassets123791856317881171661654517294Currentliabilities266526683674415441785064Short-termborrowings00050010001500Accountpayables177718632641262121452532Othercurrentliabilities8898051033103310331033Non-currentliabilities4439121121121121Obligationsunderfinanceleases4439121121121121Othernon-currentliabilities000000Totalliabilities271027073795427542995185Sharecapital000000Capitalsurplus135192065220440202142021420214Retainedearnings387048196357732379678104Totalshareholdersequity96491583314083128911224712111Minorityinterest21232011Totalequityandliabilities123791856317881171661654517294PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE322Feb2023CASHFLOW2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation74794915391047752275Depreciationamortization146170207425361Changeinworkingcapital34071614519290129Others2433932165895126Netcashfromoperations504110214031139694217InvestingCapitalexpenditure1337389808080Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments002000Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term335621521237000investmentsOthers796627217738038788Netcashfrominvesting44772497310072378FinancingNetborrowings000500500500Proceedsfromshareissues7668690000Sharerepurchases0036822600Others675348111010Netcashfromfinancing96922320263490490NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear92649657920306529132715Exchangedifference5836832000Cashattheendoftheyear496579203065291327152996GROWTH2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecRevenue51835568136234199Grossprofit2855928513378249PROFITABILITY2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin231272233273305318Operatingmargin18913422417210133Adjnetprofitmargin137751931538315ReturnonequityROE7574103786023GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecNetdebttoequityx050502020101Currentratiox325735292824Receivableturnoverdays389454650800800800Inventoryturnoverdays5386181300300300Payableturnoverdays153013281461170017001700VALUATION2019A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024EYE31DecPB395648151616PS392927312521Divyield000000nsnsnsSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE422Feb2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5