2023年1月我国汽车产销受眷节和优惠政策退出影响同环比下滑严重
　　1、整体看: 2023年1月我国汽车市场表现平淡，产销同环比均成两位数下滑。据中汽协数据2023年1月汽车产/销量分别为159.4万辆/164.9万辆，同比分别-33.1%/-5.5%，其中，乘用车产销量分别为139.7万辆/146.9万辆，同比均下降32.9%。受传统燃油车购置税优惠政策和新能源汽车补贴等政策退出，叠加春假假期提前，汽车产销同环比均呈两位数下降。2、结构看:新能源汽车产销略好于燃油车,同比微降。据中汽协,2023年1月新能源汽车产销量分别为42.5/40.8万辆,同比-6.9%/-6.3%,市场占有率达到24.7%,略低于上年底0.9个百分点，按动力类型划分，2023年1月纯电动汽车销量28.7万辆，同比减少18.2%;插电式混动汽车销量12.1万辆，同比增长42.5%。3、库存:年底经销商库存大幅降低，2023年初批售弹性提升.据中国汽车流通协会，1月经销商库存系数大幅提升至1.80，同/环比分别+23.3%/+68.2%，协会表示1月终端优惠意愿不强，加之春节假期，节前购车需求在去年提前释放，因此1月份销量环比和同比双降，但总体销量符合预期。
　　2023年1月主机厂中比亚迪销量增速领先,其他品牌皆有所下滑
　　1)比亚迪2023年1月汽车销量为15.13万辆，同比+62.44%，其中纯电/插电混动车型分别销售7.13万辆17.88万辆，同比分别+53.79%/+69.37%; 2)造车新势力:哪吒/理想/蔚来/小鹏/零跑/赛力斯2023年1月销量分别为6016辆/15141辆/8506辆/5218辆/1139辆/4490辆，同比分别-45.35%/+23.40%/-11.87%/-59.62%/-85.90%/+445.57%。造车新势力1月销量整体下滑，仅理想实现同比增长，零跑下降超八成。
　　●受特斯拉2023年1月大幅调价影响,比亚迪秦价格下探至10万元内，开启“油电同价”时代。比亚迪推出秦PLUSDM-i2023冠军版，售价9.98万起。在配置上进行升级且价格进一步下探，最低售价9.98万起，进一步抢占A级轿车市场份额，开启“油电同价”时代。
　　投資建议:整车相关标的:比亚迪、长安汽车、广汽集团等。零部件相关标的，特斯拉产业链建议关注:拓普集团、旭升股份、新泉股份、银轮股份。优质零部件建议关注:爱柯迪、保隆科技、常熟汽饰、永贵电
　　风险提示:政策效果不及预期，缺芯缓解进度不及预期，需求复苏不及预期，汽车电动化、智能化发展不及预期。
　　

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