周度产业链价格总览
　　绝对价格跟随煤价走弱，产业链各利润结构修复。月间结构仍然偏强，内地反馈尚可，外周度产业链价格总览：盘跌幅不大，进口倒挂扩大。

研究报告全文：甲醇产业链数据周报煤炭崩塌甲醇短期维持弱势戴一帆从业资格证号F3046357投资咨询证号Z0015428绝对价格跟随煤价走弱产业链各利润结构修复月间结构仍然偏强内地反馈尚可外周度产业链价格总览盘跌幅不大进口倒挂扩大期货合约今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌价差今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌01合约26112685-74261011-5价差-413-170-405合约26152672-57261055-9价差60060-16109合约25552672-1172611-569-1价差-56-13-431-57国内市场今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌南线22402260-202040200鲁南26102580302450160北线22302295-652060170河北24802525-45242555关中23602410-502130230山西2425237055239530河南26102590202425185华南26402700-60261030鲁北2500249010241585太仓26852695-10267510国际市场今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌CFR中国328335-73055225CFR印度321334-13330-9CFR东南亚379392-133805-15FOB鹿特丹339341-23055335CFR日韩377537750362155FOB美湾美分加仑108110-210225575下游价格今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌今日上周周涨跌上月月涨跌乙烯美金8758601582055MEG40444122-7840404丙烯美金99598015880115EO670065002006100600丁二烯美金1180110080880300醋酸30003100-1004040-1040PE82008300-100815050甲醛1150112030980170PP80008100-1007700300二甲醚39304020-903980-5001PVCNANANANANAMTBE705069501006850200区域价格区域价格汇总太仓价格35004500400030003500300025002500200020001500100015002022-09-212022-10-212022-11-212022-12-212023-01-21太仓北线关中山西河南河北鲁北广东2020202120222023北线价格鲁北价格45004500400040003500350030003000250025002000200015001500100010000220202021202220232020202120222023月差基差6505年区间6505年区间5505504505年均值5年均值4503502201基差2201-22052503502301基差2301-230515025050150-507173183092910291128122850-150-250-5091101103111301230-350-15040010005年区间5年区间8005年均值3005年均值6002205基差2002205-22092305基差2305-2309400100200011131313314300-1001111211231130229330429-200-2005年区间5年区间805505年均值5年均值402109基差2109-220135002209基差515312209-2301630730829-40150-80-120-5031331430530629729828-16003-250-200利润情况山东煤制成本内蒙古煤制利润51004800900460070043007004100500380036002003003300310010028002600-300-10021002300-3001600-8001800-5002021-08-302021-09-302021-10-312021-11-302021-12-312022-01-312022-02-282022-03-312022-04-302022-05-312022-06-302022-07-312022-08-312022-09-302022-10-312022-11-302022-12-312023-01-312021-08-302021-09-302021-10-312021-11-302021-12-312022-01-312022-02-282022-03-312022-04-302022-05-312022-06-302022-07-312022-08-312022-09-302022-10-312022-11-302022-12-312023-01-31利润右轴北线市场价内蒙古煤制成本利润右轴山东中部市场价山东煤制成本焦炉气制利润西南天然气制利润4800100043007004300800380050038006003300300330040010028002800200-1002300-300230001800-5001800-2002021-11-302021-12-312022-01-312022-02-282022-03-312022-04-302022-05-312022-06-302022-07-312022-08-312022-11-302022-12-312021-09-302021-10-312022-09-302022-10-312023-01-312021-08-30042021-09-302021-10-312021-11-302022-01-312022-02-282022-03-312022-04-302022-05-312022-06-302022-08-312022-09-302022-10-312022-11-302022-12-312021-08-302021-12-312022-07-312023-01-31利润右轴川渝市场价西南天然气制成本利润右轴河北市场价河北焦炉气制成本开工率甲醇全国开工率西北甲醇开工率8090857580707565706560605555201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023甲醇非一体化开工率2023甲醇日产检修预测75257024524652356023552255022215052020202120222023外盘价格外盘结构中国CFR40060050035040030030020025010002022-10-182022-10-252022-11-012022-11-082022-11-152022-11-222022-11-292022-12-062022-12-132022-12-202022-12-272023-01-032023-01-102023-01-172023-01-242023-01-312023-02-07鹿特丹FOB美湾FOB东南亚CFR日韩CFR台湾CFR印度CFR中国CFR20192020202120222023东南亚CFR美湾FOB美分加仑60018016050014040012010030080602004010020062019202020212022202320192020202120222023MTO开工率MTO开工率华东MTO开工率95100909085808070756070506560405530502020182019202020212022202320202021202220232023年MTO日耗加总14兴兴停车预期在3-4月但是仍有较大12的不确定性尤其是在单体反弹后10富德2月下有检修计划盛虹预计05前8不会重启642020231120232120233120234120235120236107沿海MTO日耗加总内地MTO日耗加总MTO利润宁波富德综合利润浙江兴兴MTO利润1500200010001500500100050000-500-500-1000-1000-1500-1500-2000-2000201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023大唐多伦MTP利润联泓MTO综合利润400050003000400020003000100002000-10001000-20000-3000-4000-100008201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023传统下游开工率甲醇传统下游加权开工率MTBE开工率556560鲁南甲醛开工率恢复明显整体50555045传统下游缓缓复苏454040353530253020201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023醋酸开工率二甲醚开工率DMF开工率105309080952570852060751550654010553045520201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023甲醛开工率氯化物开工率甲缩醛开工率4090253580203070251520601510501055400300092018201920202021202220232020202120222023201820192020202120222023醋酸醋酸价格江苏醋酸成本醋酸利润100003400700032006000800030005000280060002600400024004000300022002000200020001800100001600020192020202120222023201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023醋酸库存结构醋酸库存醋酸出口量252516000014000020201200001515100000101080000560000540000002000001月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月山东华东华北西北华中其他20192020202120222023201820192020202120222023醋酸乙酯开工率醋酸乙烯开工率808070706050604030502040100300102019202020212022202320192020202120222023甲醛甲醛价格甲醛成本2200210020001900180017001600150014001300120011001000900800700华南华北山东201820192020202120222023甲醛利润甲醛月产量45050000035040000025030000015020000050100000-500-1502021-03-312021-04-302021-05-312021-06-302021-07-312021-08-312021-09-302021-10-312021-11-302021-12-312022-01-312022-02-282022-03-312022-04-302022-07-312022-10-312022-11-302022-12-312023-01-312022-06-302022-08-312022-09-302022-05-31011201820192020202120222023甲醛月产量二甲醚河南二甲醚价格河南二甲醚成本65006500600060005500550050005000450045004000400035003500300030002500250020002000201820192020202120222023201820192020202120222023河南二甲醚利润LPGDME与DME开工率相关性800172460016224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