报告摘要
　　特斯拉交付量再创新高，带动市场对一体化压铸产业链的关注。特斯拉四季度业绩好于市场预期，交付量再创新高，带动了市场对一体化压铸产业链的关注。当前全球车企对新能源汽车的投入加大，一体化压铸作为车身制造技术及工艺的创新方案，渗透率正处于快速攀升的阶段。
　　中国新能源汽车厂家对超大型压铸机的需求强劲。中国新能源汽车产业发展迅速，主机厂和零部件供应商对新技术、新工艺的投入较为积极，带动了中国市场对一体压铸方案的需求。中国压铸机企业已经与多个中国主机厂和供应商展开合作，供应超大型压铸机及配套服务。
　　风险因素：一体化压铸方案渗透率不及预期、新能源汽车销售不及预期、行业竞争加剧。
　　

研究报告全文：股票研Research究TableTitleEquityResearchDepartmentMorningResearchFocus1February2023TableSummaryTableofContents目录Focus行业和公司焦点今IndustryandCompanyFocus晨Nil无焦Research点LatestReports最新报告摘要MorningCompanyEPSCodeTitleTPChgRatingChgNameEstChange代码标题目标价z评级变动公司名称盈利预测是否改变SectorReportBi-WeeklyUpdateDie-CastingMachineSuppliersWillMachineryContinuetoBenefitfromthe--Outperform--NSectorIncreasedPenetrationRateofSingle-PieceDie-CastingSolutions行业报告机械行业压铸机供应商将持机械行业--跑赢大市--否证续受益于一体化压铸方案渗透率提升告SectorReportBi-WeeklyWrapWeConstruction券ExpectInfrastructureInvestmenttoEngineering--Outperform--N研报MaintainRelativelyFastGrowthinSector2023究究行业报告双周报我们预计基建投资在建筑工程行业--跑赢大市--否2023年仍将维持较快增长报研GamingSectorReportCNYVisitationinLine告--Outperform--NSector券Recoveredto375ofthatin2019EquityResearchReport行业报告春节假期赴澳门旅客人数恢复博彩行业证--跑赢大市--否至2019年的375符合预期TypeofReportTitleIssueDate报告类型标题MacroChinaWhatIstheBestLeadingIndicatorin202331January2023NewlyPublishedKeyEconomicDataforChinaUSandEurope中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据AppendicesChineseVersionoftheIndustryandCompanyFocusLatestReports后附行业和公司焦点最新报告摘要中文版Seethelastpagefordisclaimer1of8MorningResearchFocusHSIPerformanceHSCEIPerformance31000140002900012000270002500010000230002100080001900060001700015000400013000110002000Jan22Apr22Jul22Oct22Jan23Jan22Apr22Jul22Oct22Jan23SourceBloombergSourceBloombergPreviousIntradayHKmRMBmTradingDayChange百万港元百万人民币前一交易日单日涨跌HSIIndexDailyTurnoverMainlandChinaDailyTurnover2171848095159584640523恒生指数总成交额内地总成交额HSCEIIndexStockConnectNetInflowMarketCapSSE738257097112242212247国企指数互联互通净流入沪市市值HSTECHIndexMarketCapHKExMarketCapSZSE4539001163871550034408700科技指数港股市值深市市值资料来源国泰君安国际BloombergNotethemarketcapitalvalueofHKExSSESZSEandMainlandChinaDailyTurnoverwasrecordedasatJan30PleasesubscribetoourGTJAIResearchandStrategyTeamWechatsubscriptionaccountsPleasescantheQRcodesontheright-handsideResearchReportDatabase1wwwgtjaicomResearchFocusCompanyResearchHighlights2BloombergReportPageRESPGJIRorNHGTJ欢迎订阅国泰君安国际研究部和策略团队的微信公众号公众号账号国泰君安国际研究部戴清策略研究研究报告库1wwwgtjaicom研究报告公司点评专题研究2Bloomberg报告页面RESPGJIR或NHGTJSeethelastpagefordisclaimer2of8MorningResearchFocusIndustryTableFocusandCompanyFocusNil无TableLatestLatestReportsSectorReportMachinerySectorBi-WeeklyUpdateDie-CastingMachineSuppliersWillContinuetoBenefitfromtheIncreasedPenetrationRateofSingle-PieceDie-CastingSolutionsRatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystAlexBaiReportDate2023-01-31SummaryTeslasdeliveryvolumereachedanewhighdrivingthemarketsattentiontothesingle-piecedie-castingindustrychainTeslasperformancein2022Q4wasbetterthanmarketexpectationsanditsdeliveryvolumehitanewhighwhichhasdriventhemarketsattentiontothesingle-piecedie-castingindustrychainAtpresentglobalvehiclemanufacturershaveincreasedtheirinvestmentinnewenergyvehiclesAsaninnovativesolutionforbodymanufacturingtechnologysingle-piecedie-castingisinastageofrapidincreaseinpenetrationrateChinasnewenergyvehiclemanufacturersmaintainstrongdemandforsuper-largedie-castingmachinesChinasnewenergyautomobileindustryisdevelopingrapidlyVehiclemanufacturersandpartssuppliersareactivelyinvestinginnewtechnologiesandprocesseswhichhasdriventhedemandforsingle-piecedie-castingsolutionsintheChinesemarketChinesedie-castingmachinecompanieshavecooperatedwithanumberofChinesevehiclemanufacturersandsupplierstosupplysuper-largedie-castingmachinesandsupportingservicesRiskfactorsThepenetrationrateofthesingle-piecedie-castingsolutionmaybelowerthanexpectednewenergyvehiclesalesmaybelowerthanexpectedmarketcompetitionmayintensifySectorReportConstructionEngineeringSectorBi-WeeklyWrapWeExpectInfrastructureInvestmenttoMaintainRelativelyFastGrowthin2023RatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystGaryWongReportDate2023-01-31SummaryInvestmentsuggestionsOurtoppicksarecompaniesbenefitingfromthethemesofrealestatesectorrecoveryandcontinuedpushininfrastructureinvestmentespeciallywithmodularintegratedconstructionMiCandbuilding-integratedphotovoltaicsBIPVexposurewhichincludeChinaStateConstructionInternational03311HKtargetpriceHK1420ratingBuyandChinaStateConstructionDevelopment00830HKtargetpriceHK266ratingBuyReiterateOutperformratingforthesectorSectornewsupdates1AnnouncementofJan-Dec2022Chinafixedassetinvestmentstatistics2NDRCJanuary2023pressconferenceCompanynewsupdates1ChinaRailwayGroup00390HK2022newcontractsincreased111YoYtoRMB30324billion2CSCDevelopment00830HK2022shareholdersnetprofitincreasednotlessthan40YoY3ChinaRailwayConstruction01186HK2022newcontractsincreased151YoYtoRMB32450billionRisks1Governmentinfrastructurespendingmaybelowerthanexpected2Inflationcouldexceedexpectationsandmaycausepolicytightening3worldwidepandemicsituationmightseefluctuationSeethelastpagefordisclaimer3of8MorningResearchFocusSectorReportGamingSectorCNYVisitationinLineRecoveredto375ofThatin2019RatingOutperform6-18mTPnaAnalystNoahHudsonReportDate2023-01-31SummaryThenumberofvisitorstoMacauduringtheChineseNewYearCNYholidayrecoveredto375ofthatin2019DuringmainlandChinasseven-daystatutoryholidayperiodfromJanuary21through27inclusivetherewereatotalof451047visitorstoMacaoThatsanincreaseof2967fromthe113699visitorsduringthesameseven-dayholidayperiodin2022butequivalenttojust375ofthe121millionvisitorstoMacaoduringthesameholidayperiodin2019GamingrevenuepervisitormaynothavebeenashighashopedTypicallyvisitorsfrommainlandChinabetmoreatthegamingtablesthanvisitorsfromanyotherjurisdictionThisyearsCNYholidayperiodhadalowerproportionofvisitorsfrommainlandChina587thaninthepre-Covidyearsaround70WemaintainourOutperformsectorratingandsuggesttoaccumulateonsharepricepull-backsOverallwethinkthatMacaovisitationduringCNYwasinlinewithperhapsatthelowendofmarketexpectationsbutwasnotoverlyimpressiveCurrentMacaogamingsharepricesandvaluationsreflectoptimisticmarketexpectationsofcontinuedrecoverynotonlyfor2023butalsofor2024Wethinkthatunlessthereissomesignificantdisasterthemarketwillmaintainthisoptimisticviewinthecomingmonthsandquartersevenifshort-termgamingresultsmissexpectationsThereforewethinkthatgoingforwardshort-termmissedexpectationsifanythatresultinsharepricepull-backswillgenerallybeaccumulationopportunitiessinceweexpectinvestorsentimentwouldbouncebackasthemarketmaintainsitslonger-termexpectationofafullrecoveryforMacaogamingby2H2023or2024RisksMacaogamingrevenuecouldbelowerthanexpectediftheproportionoflowerqualityvisitorstoMacaoincreasesMacaosJanuarygamingrevenuetobereportedon1FebcouldmissmarketexpectationsChinaWhatIstheBestLeadingIndicatorin2023MacroTeamHaoZhouReportDate2023-01-31SummaryChinaseconomykickedoffagreatstartin2023withboththeofficialmanufacturingandservicesPMIbacktoexpansionaryterritoryinthefirstmonthof2023TheservicesPMIinparticularjumpedto544from416previouslysuggestingthattherapidreopeningsignificantlyhelpedconsumptionWeraiseour2023ChinaGDPforecastfrom48to54andkeepthebullcaseatabove6intactWeseethatChinaislikelytoachieve8GDPgrowthinthesecondquarterof2023withgrowthmomentumfromthemanufacturingsectorandalowbaseeffectConsumptionhasbeendrivingtherecoveryOurestimatessuggestthattheamountofprecautionarysavingsisaboutRMB45trnasattheendof2022ofwhichabout13willbetranslatedintoconsumptionthisyearThegame-changingfactoraffectingconsumptionistheoutlookonfutureincomewhichistiedtovariousfactorsThatsaidtheeasingofpolicyandreducedCoviduncertaintieswillhelpimprovesentimentPropertymarketdynamicsisanotherinfluentialfactorofconsumptionandgrowthOurbasecaseisthepropertymarketwillstarttoreboundinthelatesecondquarterwhileanearlierreboundofpropertymarketcannotbediscountedwithstrongpolicysupportTherehasbeenasignificantdivergencebetweenhouseholddepositsandloansgrowthreflectingchangesinbehavioramongChineseresidentswithCovidcontrolandpropertypoliciesbeingthekeyfactorsbehindthechangesHenceweadviseourclientstomonitorhouseholddepositdynamicswhichcouldbethemostimportantleadingindicatorfortheChineseeconomyin2023CreditgrowthisalsoimportantasthiswouldsuggestwhetherhouseholdsareconfidenttoleverageonretainedsavingsSeethelastpagefordisclaimer4of8MorningResearchFocusNewlyPublishedKeyEconomicDataforChinaUSandEuropeTableNewlyPublished中美欧最新公布的重要经济数据AnalystAndyHuang分析员黄凯鸿CurrentMarketCountryIndicatorDataPeriodMoMQoQYoYValueConsensus国家指标名称数据期间环比变动同比变动当期值市场一致预期ChinaManufacturingPMIJan50131ppts00ppts501中国官方制造业PMI1月SourceNationalBureauofStatisticsofChinaUniversityofMichiganBloomberg数据来源中国国家统计局密歇根大学彭博ChineseTranslation中文翻译TableFocuschi行业和公司焦点Nil无TableLatestchi最新报告行业报告机械行业双周报压铸机供应商将持续受益于一体化压铸方案渗透率提升评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员白舸报告日期2023-01-31报告摘要特斯拉交付量再创新高带动市场对一体化压铸产业链的关注特斯拉四季度业绩好于市场预期交付量再创新高带动了市场对一体化压铸产业链的关注当前全球车企对新能源汽车的投入加大一体化压铸作为车身制造技术及工艺的创新方案渗透率正处于快速攀升的阶段中国新能源汽车厂家对超大型压铸机的需求强劲中国新能源汽车产业发展迅速主机厂和零部件供应商对新技术新工艺的投入较为积极带动了中国市场对一体压铸方案的需求中国压铸机企业已经与多个中国主机厂和供应商展开合作供应超大型压铸机及配套服务风险因素一体化压铸方案渗透率不及预期新能源汽车销售不及预期行业竞争加剧行业报告建筑工程行业双周报我们预计基建投资在2023年仍将维持较快增长评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员黄家玮报告日期2023-01-31报告摘要投资建议我们的首选股为受惠于地产回暖基建投资持续发力主题的公司尤其是具备组装合成法及光伏建筑一体化工程能力的公司包括中国建筑国际03311HK目标价1420港元评级买入及中国建筑兴业00830HK目标价266港元评级买入重申行业跑赢大市评级行业新闻更新1公告2022年1-12月中国固定资产投资统计数据2发改委2023年1月新闻发布会公司新闻更新1中国中铁00390HK2022年新签合同同比增长111至人民币30324亿元2中建兴业00830Seethelastpagefordisclaimer5of8MorningResearchFocusHK2022年股东净利润同比增长不低于403中国铁建01186HK2022年新签合同同比增长151至人民币32450亿元风险1政府基础设施支出可能低于预期2可能超预期的通胀或导致政策收紧3世界各地的疫情可能会出现波动行业报告博彩行业春节假期赴澳门旅客人数恢复至2019年的375符合预期评级跑赢大市6-18m目标价na分析员NoahHudson报告日期2023-01-31报告摘要春节假期赴澳门旅客人数恢复至2019年的375中国内地春节七天假期期间1月21日至27日赴澳门旅客达451047人次较2022年同期7天假期的113699人次增加2967但仅相当于2019年同期121万人次的375每位访客的博彩收入可能没有预期的那么高通常来自中国内地的游客在赌桌上的赌注比来自任何其他地区的游客都要高今年春节假期来自中国内地的游客比例587低于疫情前的水平约70我们维持跑赢大市的行业评级并建议逢低收集总体而言我们认为春节期间的赴澳门旅客数量符合可能处于低端市场预期但并没有特别乐观现时澳门博彩股价及估值反映了市场对2023年甚至2024年的乐观预期我们认为除非发生重大事件否则市场将在未来几个月和几个季度保持这种乐观的预期即使短期博彩业绩低于预期因此我们认为展望未来短期业绩低于预期如有导致股价回调往往是收集机会因为我们预计投资者情绪将反弹并且市场维持其长期预期即澳门博彩业将在2023年下半年或2024年全面复苏风险若赴澳门低质量旅客比例增加澳门博彩收入可能低于预期澳门1月博彩收入将于2月1日公布可能低于预期Seethelastpagefordisclaimer6of8MorningResearchFocusResearchDepartment研究部NoahHudsonHeadofResearch主管noahhudsongtjascomhk8675523976684HaoZhou周浩ChiefEconomist首席经济学家haozhougtjascomhk85225097582BillySun孙英超Macro宏观billysungtjascomhk85225092603JakeWang汪昌江Strategy策略changjiangwanggtjascomhk8675523976675AndyHuang黄凯鸿Strategy策略kaihonghuanggtjascomhk8675523976702JackWu吴狄Strategy策略diwugtjascomhk8675523976718EvanLi李少金Strategy策略evanligtjascomhk85225095375GaryWong黄家玮ConstructionEngineering建筑工程garywonggtjascomhk85225092616KevinGuo郭勇NonferrousMetals有色金属yongguogtjascomhk8675523976671RichardCao曹柱Banking银行zhucaogtjascomhk8675523976870JunZhu朱俊杰NewEnergy新能源junjiezhugtjascomhk85225097592DannyLaw罗沛达WholesaleRetail批发零售含教育dannylawgtjascomhk85225097768GinYu余劲同Telecommunications通信ginyugtjascomhk8675523976686JackLiu柳晨Electronics电子chenliugtjascomhk85225092149PeterShao邵俊樨EnergyOperations能源运营petershaogtjascomhk85225095464TeddyLin林荣叶MediaCulture传播文化含体育rongyelingtjascomhk8675523976692ChunliZhan詹春立Property房地产jameszhangtjascomhk85225097745AndyChen陈思超FoodBeverages食品饮料含化妆品andychengtjascomhk85225092665AlexBai白舸Machinery机械gebaigtjascomhk85225097202VincentLiu刘健威MediaCulture传播文化含体育jianweiliugtjascomhk8675523976680IvanWu吴凱翔Automobiles汽车ivanwugtjascomhk85225092649HansenTang汤瀚森TextilesApparel纺织服装hansentanggtjascomhk8675523976884FrancoLi李炜Non-BankFinance非银行金融francoligtjascomhk85225097204DanielTao陶选Computer计算机danieltaogtjascomhk8675523976885EsabellaZhao赵舒蔓ComprehensiveSupport综合支持shumanzhaogtjascomhk8675523976681PennyPan潘凌蕾ComprehensiveSupport综合支持pennypangtjascomhk85225092632Seethelastpagefordisclaimer7of8MorningResearchFocusCompanyRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexNASDAQCompositeIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableDISCLOSURETableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT02191HKSINOHYTEC02402HKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavehadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswithCOUNTRYGARDEN02007HKSINOTRANS-HSHARES00598HKCHOWTAIFOOKJEWELLERY01929HKCGNMEIYAPOWER01811HKCGNPOWER-HSHARES01816HKGOMEELECTRICALAPPLIANCES00493HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKFOSUNINTL00656HKWEIGAOGROUP01066HKCHENMING01812HKSUNAC01918HKNAYUKI02150HKCARSGEN02171HKCHINAOVSPPT02669HKSMOORE06969HKXPENG09868HKYEAHKA09923HKGUANGZHOUAUTOMOBILE-HSHARES02238HKNWS00659HKCHINASOUTHCITY01668HKSIHUANPHARMACEUTICAL00460HKSINOPECENGINEERING-HSHARES02386HKGCLNEWENERGY00451HKNEWWORLDDEVELOPMENT00017HKCHINARISUNGROUP01907HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKZGCTECLEASING01601HKAOYUANHEALTHYLIFEGROUP03662HKJDCOM09618HKCHINALESSO02128HKTENCENT00700HKBINHAIINVESTMENT02886HKCHINAPETROLEUMCHEMICAL-HSHARES00386HKJIANGSUEXPRESSWAY00177HKSINOPECKANTONS00934HKCGNMINING01164HKCHINANONFERROUSMINING01258HKLEEMANPAPER02314HKJOYSPREADER06988HKVOBILEGROUP03738HKCHERVON02285HKKINGSOFT03888HKSENSETIME-W00020HKZHONGLIANGHOLDINGS02772HKLOGANGROUP03380HKZHENROPROPERTIES06158HKAGILEGROUP03383HKCIFIESSERVICE01995HKBANKOFGANSU02139HKA-LIVING03319HKFINANCIALSTREETPROPERTY01502HKIRICOGROUPNEWENERGY00438HKCIFIHOLDINGSGROUP00884HKBIDU-SW09888HKKWGGROUP01813HKBILIBILI-SW09626HKCHINASUNTIEN00956HKJINKESERVICES09666HKPOPMART09992HKDFZQ-HSHARES03958HKWUXIAPPTEC02359HKBANKOFCHONGQING01963HKCITS01880HKYANZHOUCOAL01171HKSPC00338HKHONGJIUFRUIT06689HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKBANKOFCOMMUNICATIONS-HSHARES03328HKCHINAMINSHENGBANKINGCORP-HSHARES01988HKmentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectofLENOVO00992HKCHINAMOBILE-HSHARES00941HKHONGKONGEXCHANGESANDCLEARING00388HKGALAXYENTERTAINMENT00027HKGREATWALLMOTOR-HSHARES02333HKAIA01299HKSANDSCHINA01928HKCHINAAOYUANPROPERTY03883HKKUAISHOU-W01024HKSUNAC01918HKXPENG09868HKSUNNYOPTICALTECHNOLOGY02382HKSINOPHARMGROUP-HSHARES01099HKCNOOC00883HKWUXIBIOLOGICS02269HKMEITUAN-W03690HKCHINATOWERCORPORATION-HSHARES00788HKXIAOMICORPORATION01810HKALIBABA09988HKNETEASE09999HKJDCOM09618HKSMIC00981HKALIBABAHEALTH00241HKLOGANGROUP03380HKBIDU-SW09888HKCITICSEC-HSHARES06030HKGEELYAUTOMOBILE00175HKBYDCOMPANY-HSHARES01211HKCHINACONSTRUCTIONBANK-HSHARES00939HKINDUSTRIALANDCOMMERCIALBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES01398HKBOCHONGKONG02388HKBANKOFCHINA-HSHARES03988HKHSBC00005HKPINGANINSURANCE-HSHARES02318HKCHINALIF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