投资逻辑
　　一、全国发烧指数高峰已过、元旦周消费指标得到恢复:全国主要城市“发烧”指数均呈现负增长。元旦周代表餐饮强度环比大幅增长，北京市环比增长78.4%，.上海环比增长245%。
　　二、快递及线上消费:运力压力明显改善,生鲜电商活跃度高。截至2023.1.1,代表快递企业周度订单强度环比改善，环比提升32%,约为去年同期的115%。北京、上海、广东、浙江的代表快递企业订单指数为去年同期的142.41%、149.12%、84.01%、134.56%。多数电商平台及生鲜电商平台周均用户活跃回落，但同比增速保持，主要受季节因素影响。其中12月叮咚买菜MAU同比29%，DAU同比13%;盒马MAU同比54%, DAU同比80%。代表互联网医疗平台周度销售额在12月第二周同比67%，第三周同比56%，持续处于高位。
　　三、线上生活娱乐:各平台之间表现出现分化。1)外卖:从骑手及商家角度美团受影响程度小于饿了么。美团外卖.骑手及商家供给均有好转。2)生活:药品供需仍不平衡，微信抗疫公益互助小程序DAU达到454万。3)在线办公:疫情之下远程会议已成为居家办公第一选择，腾讯会议用户增速明显提升。12月27~1月2日，腾讯会议周均DAU同增39%。4)娱乐:快手用户增长或更受益于疫情居家时间增多，快手同比增速表现优于抖音。12月27~1月2日,快手周均DAU同增22%，抖音周均DAU同增11%，相较于本轮疫情前期，快手与抖音用户表现呈现出一定分化，快手用户同比增速维持高位且持续提升，而抖音在12月后2周增速开始有所回落。
　　四、出行:多城本异地出行回暖，出入境航班低位回升。截至2023.1.4，本地出行，18个样本城市中17城地铁客流恢复度表现为回升趋势，成都、武汉、保定城市交通拥堵指数已略超2019年同期水平;异地出行:国内整体客运航班量为2019年同期71%，国际客运航班量为2019年同期8.6%、处于低位回升状态。
　　五、餐饮:跨年餐饮表现较强,全国迎上修拐点。截至2023.1.1代表餐饮连锁全国歇业率回落至1.5%，全国七日移动平均营业额较去年同期恢复度约47%、环比上周的29%回升18pct，元旦前两日流水恢复去年同期79%、高于国庆节(72%)。北方过峰城市恢复度进一步上修,恢复至上一年同期70%及以上水平，南方一线城市上海、广深迎来拐点。
　　六、酒旅:整体表现较稳健，海岛、滑雪、高端为结构性亮点。携程APP周均DAU (2022.12.272023.01.02)同比-3.2%，环比上一周的-14%回升较明显。元旦节假期，全国国内旅游出游5271万人次，同比+0.44%，按可比口径恢复至19年元旦节假日同期的42.8%;实现国内旅游收入265亿元，同比+4.0%，恢复至19年元旦节假日同期的35.1%，均低于国庆水平，但客单价恢复至19年同期82%、为年内偏高水平。长春机场12.29客运航班执飞量为19年同期的122%,三亚截至1.4恢复至至19年同期的102%。
　　风险提示
　　疫情修复持续时间或存在不确定性;线下客流恢复受阻、门店/渠道拓展不及预期;宏观经济增长放缓的幅度和时间超预期的风险;数据统计结果与实际情况偏差风险。
　　

研究报告全文：2023年1月5日买入维持评级消费行业研究行业专题研究报告证券研究报告国金证券研究所分析师廖馨瑶执业S1130522060005分析师许孟婕执业S1130522080003联系人叶思嘉liaoxinyaogjzqcomcnxumengjiegjzqcomcnyesijiagjzqcomcn联系人俞敏浩yuminhaogjzqcomcn全国发烧指数高峰已过元旦周消费指标修复-0123456789ABCDEF01GHIJKLMNOPDEQRSMNDETUVWXQYZMNDEWXFaY239bcdcefghQijklmnLFopqrVVQGHst1LuvKLMNghQMNwxrXQyzXFRSYZGHstuvzWVWXWVXUWVqXrWVXFklijkl1mnQNDQFNXQNrXNWXNUqXFGH1L1NTXQ1NXQFaYim9HBBF9lLLFlFim9Q6WWFra9-zQDefwxFTQ1DrXFW9DEDQNDHBFTQ1DXQ1DXQQHBABQNDwxQ1DF9Q-xFopqrVVWQQU0T12378LHBzx45Q6789-q9AB2b-CzqTXQD2b-CzqUVXxEFFGIJ9HIJHBKQIYJKLFopqrVVGHIJMNOtPpVXQQRSTt78LyWTXMNY1XxUUVWQ0X378TXYZTXFR78LYJQ78pYTqXYQaYZIaKLFbcd9ABHBefQZghijzklmnLFopp1ZqVVTqqrVqVqNrrVXQMNY1rWXxefF0sQdttTuvQNwqVWWXQxyNz78p0sWVUXBdtQNwWVqXQ78p0srVXQYQ2v78pUXzFEV2b-CzXopVW78ppqXFJ8ma2378DEPLkDF-Q0s234J8fVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVWaY239bcdcefghQijklmnVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVaYim9HBBVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVTaYppmn23z9Qa2378VVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVG9Q-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-C78LZXqQpqrqqWVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVHrW9RS2b-C78LxZXqpqrqqWVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVHr9YZ2b-C78LxZXqQpqrqqWVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVHr92b-C78LxZXqpqrqqWVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVHrT9D2b-C78LZXqQpqrqqWVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVHrU9RSD2b-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-C78LxZXqpqrqqWVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVHq92b-C78LxZXqQpqrqqWVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVH92b-C78LxZXqpqrqqWVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVVr-QQABCDEF9MNMNCQRSZ956efJ8QRSzMNDEVXFdQ01GHIJKLMNOPDEQMNDEWXQRSMNDETUVWXQYZMNDEWXFH9rKLMNH9GHIJrKLMN-01234-5678019-01234-5678019ABCDEFG2HBIJK28LMNOPQRSTBaQEGHIJMNDEQ978FHr90123-01234-5678019WKL9qpqrQGHst1LuvKLMNghQMNwxrXQyzXFRSYZGHstuvMNwxrWVrXrUVWXUVXrrVXQzWVWXWVXUWVqXrWVXFHW9GHst1Luv-01234-5678019H9GHst1LuvL-01234-5678019UVWXWYZP2aY239qTpqrQklijkl1mnQNDQFSS61NQSUU1NrqXQM1NexPQS6zmnLqqXYDEFijklQNXQNrXNWXNUqXFGH1L1NTXQ1NXQFH9pp1Qv9uHT9pp1Qv9u-01234-5678019-01234-5678019HU9Spp1Qv9uH9S6z1Qv9u-01234-5678019-01234-5678019Hq9pp1H9pp1-01234-5678019-01234-5678019H9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