研究报告全文：银河能化-尿素日报能源化工研发报告尿素日报交易策略核心观点今日国内交割区尿素现货价格整体止跌企稳局部小幅探涨10元吨部分企业停手随着近期尿素现货价格连续下跌市场成交继续好转一方面随着原料煤价格持续坚挺而尿素价格不断下跌固定床利润被大幅压缩同时晋城地区公布新一轮大气环保政策部煤化工限产30而西南气头装置陆续开始检修整体供应依旧偏低尿素日均产量降至143万吨附近另一方面随着尿素价格连续下跌前期抵制高价的终端下游用户开始低价采购今日市场低端价格较前期有所增加复合肥厂需求略有释放企业新单良好整体出厂价格止跌企稳供应方面晋城无烟块煤价格坚挺为主6800K小块出厂价2010-2060元吨榆林沫煤价格弱稳5800大卡含税出厂价1150-1200元吨烟块煤6200大卡含税出厂价1280-1330元吨尿素现货价格跌幅扩大固定床工艺生产利润收窄至131元吨水煤浆工艺生产利润461元吨气流床工艺利润761元吨附近随着固定床利润被大幅压缩同时晋城地区公布新一轮达旗环保政策部分企业停车检修西南地区气头装置开始季节性检修整体供应偏低尿素日均产量降至143万吨附近西北地区内蒙新疆疫情管控放开仓储物流逐渐宽松疆内铁路外运畅通企业高库存局面将得到缓解出口方面印度招标或将继续推迟出口市场情绪暂时降温关注招标动态需求方面随着尿素价格一轮下跌低价刺激出部分采购需求整体需求较前期有所增加库存方面物流缓解企业销售顺利本周企业库存继续减少295万吨左右以上观点仅供参考不做入市依据行情回顾今日期货盘面高开低走最终报收2480-16-064现货市场今日尿素现货价格止跌企稳河南中小颗粒报2630-2640元吨山东中小颗粒报2630-2700元吨河北中小颗粒报2690-2700元吨山西中小颗粒报2610-2620元吨安徽中小颗粒报2750-2770元吨新疆中小颗粒报2350-2400元吨重要资讯2022年第50周20221209-1216东北尿素到货量231万吨较上周涨23万吨环比上调1106东北场内大颗粒供应偏紧因而大颗粒采购居多使得本周到货继续增加16银河能化-尿素日报能源化工研发报告相关数据图表心连价格期货山东河南河北安徽江苏湖北联盟正元昊源兰花晋开心2020-12-2118771830184018001880185018301810182018301890NA17902021-12-2222802500248024402520250024202540248024802520244024502022-11-1825212600260026402620262026002550256026302645252025502022-11-2125242690268027102710270026502630260026602690257026202022-11-2526312790276027802790280027602740271027502780268027002022-11-2825802790279028002820281027802760276027802790270027402022-12-0125422710273027802760273027202760273027802790270027002022-12-04NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2022-12-0725682710273027502760274027102670265027002750265026702022-12-10NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2022-12-1326742780278027802810280028202710273027402810265027202022-12-17NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2022-12-18NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2022-12-1924802720276027802790274027502710275027502830266027202022-12-2024662710273027602770273027302670272027202790263026702022-12-2125252690269027502750271027302630267027002760261026402022-12-222480NANANANANANA263026702680276026102650固定航天水煤山东河南河北安徽盘面无烟无烟三聚氰价差利润床利炉利浆利电煤利润基差基差基差基差利润块煤沫煤胺润润润2020-12-21-67-57-4713NA331551328415930511NANA2021-12-222602002002401245828132586641860923950013802022-11-182939109124124236533260920187012807700-4502022-11-2110676136166176285598264915187012507800-5902022-11-2510979119149306459793391845187011707900-8202022-11-28180180200210328547869343835187011407900-8802022-12-01218188238248307531833304840190011457900-8802022-12-04NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2022-12-0710282132182219404691294855195012207600-9102022-12-10NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2022-12-13365666136194480779333855198712107500-11302022-12-17NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2022-12-18NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2022-12-19230270270350181541841135820203711707500-11302022-12-20204254254324151511811121820203711707500-10102022-12-21105145175235131461761180820203711707500-8902022-12-22150190200280131461761135820203711707500-89026银河能化-尿素日报能源化工研发报告河南心连心出厂价山东联盟出厂价单位元吨单位元吨340034002900290024002400190019001400140001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0120192020202120222019202020212022河北正元出厂价安徽昊源出厂价单位元吨单位元吨340034002900290024002400190019001400140001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0120192020202120222019202020212022心连心基差山东联盟基差单位元吨单位元吨600600375375150150757501-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0130012-01300202020212022202020212022河北正元基差安徽昊源基差单位元吨单位元吨600600375375150150757501-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0130030020202021202220202021202236银河能化-尿素日报能源化工研发报告2022-12-16尿素周度数据尿素开工率卓创尿素开工率隆众单位单位800080007250725065006500575057505000500001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-01202020212022202020212022尿素煤制开工率隆众尿素气制开工率隆众单位单位80008000725060006500400057502000500000001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-01202020212022202020212022尿素产量隆众尿素日均产量隆众单位万吨单位万吨120001700110001550100001400900012508000110001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-01202020212022202020212022尿素煤制产量隆众尿素气制开工率隆众单位万吨单位90008000825060007500400067502000600000001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0120202021202220202021202246银河能化-尿素日报能源化工研发报告2022-12-16尿素周度数据尿素企业库存隆众尿素港口库存隆众单位万吨单位万吨10500750080005750550040003000225050050001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-01202020212022202020212022尿素各省供应量卓创尿素各省需求量卓创单位万吨单位万吨220001600019000140001600012000130001000010000800001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-012021202220212022复合肥开工率隆众复合肥厂库卓创单位单位万吨0609000050750004060000304500020300001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-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