我们预计2022年的全球太阳能装机量将达到250吉瓦，并于2023年进一步上升至380吉瓦，同比增长52%。根据SolarPower Europe的数据，2021年全球太阳能新增装机容量达到约168吉瓦，同比增长21.4%。2021年全球前五大市场合计贡献了128.7吉瓦的太阳能新增装机量，约占全球新增装机量的76.7%。随着2022下半年及往后多晶硅新产能的成功投放，我们预计2022/2023/2024年全球太阳能新增装机容量将分别达到250吉瓦/380吉瓦/485吉瓦，同比增长49.0%/52.0% /27.6%。国内方面，我们预计中国市场将在2022-2024年贡献90吉瓦/120吉瓦/150吉瓦的新增装机量。
　　多晶硅供应的增加将提高下游产能利用率，并推升太阳能组件的产量。受供应短缺的影响，多晶硅的价格在2022年飙升至10年的高位。预计多晶硅供应量将从2022年的90万吨跃升至2023年的150万吨，同比增长64%。预计2022年四季度多晶硅供应激增将提振下游产能利用率。以125%的超产率计，我们估计2022-2024年太阳能组件产量分别将达到313吉瓦/ 475吉瓦/ 606吉瓦。预计2023年和2024年强劲的太阳能组件产量必将带动市场对EVA、背板、铝框和太阳能玻璃等太阳能组件辅料的需求。
　　我们推荐太阳能组件辅料制造商。由于预计2023-2024年太阳能组件产量将上升，我们推荐市场上具有成本竞争优势的龙头太阳能玻璃制造商。我们预计2023年和2024年太阳能玻璃的供需关系将保持健康，而太阳能玻璃价格有望保持稳定。我们推荐太阳能玻璃行业龙头，重点推荐福莱特玻璃（06865 HK；评级：买入），因为我们认为太阳能玻璃的出货量预期激增将加速公司在2023 -2024年的增长。
　　风险：全球太阳能装机量低于预期，太阳能玻璃产能过剩，原材料和能源价格上涨。
　　

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportNewEnergySectorJunZhu朱俊杰行业报告新能源行业85225097592junjiezhugtjascomhk21December2022GlobalTableMainInfoSolarInstallationsSetToFurtherRisein2023行全球太阳能装机将于2023年进一步上升业Weexpectglobalsolarinstallationstoreach250GWin2022andfurtherjumpto380GWin2023representingYoYgrowthof52AccordingtoRatingTableInvestInfo报OutperformSolarPowerEuropeglobalnewlyinstalledsolarcapacityin2021reached告approximately168GWup214YoYThetopfivemarketsintheworldSectorReportcollectivelycontributed1287GWofnewsolarinstallationsin2021accounting评级跑赢大市forabout767ofglobalinstallationsWiththesuccessfulcommissionof2polysiliconnewproductioncapacityin2H2022andonwardsweestimatenewlyHangSengIndexvsSolarGlassinstalledsolarcapacitygloballytoreach250GW380GW485GWin202220232024respectivelyrepresentingYoYincreaseof490520恒生指数vs光伏玻璃return276DomesticallyweexpecttheChinamarkettocontributenewFlatGlassHangSengIndexXinyiSolarinstallationsof90GW120GW150GWin2022-2024respectively120110Theriseinpolysiliconsupplyissettoincreasedownstreamcapacity100utilizationboostingsolarmoduleoutputDuetoshortagespolysilicon90pricespikedtoa10-yearhighin2022Polysiliconsupplyisestimatedtojump80from09milliontonsin2022to15milliontonsin2023up64YoYThe70证surgeinthesupplyofpolysiliconfrom4Q2022isexpectedtoboostthe60告productioncapacityutilizationinthedownstreamWithanoverproductionrate券50of125weestimatesolarmoduleoutputin2022-2024tobe313GW475研报40GW606GWrespectivelyThestrongsolarmoduleproductionoutput30究究expectedfor2023and2024iscertaintodriveupthedemandforsolarmodule222222222222222222222222-----------accessoriessuchasEVAbackboardsaluminumframesandsolarglass-ResearchReportJulAprOctJanJunFebMarNovDecSepAugMay报研WearebullishonsolarmoduleaccessorymakersDuetotheprojectedrise告SourceSPCapitalIQ券intheoutputofsolarmodulesfrom2023-2024wefavorthetier-1solarglassEquitymakersinthemarketgiventheircompetitivecostadvantageWeexpectthatHistoricalglobalsolarinstallations证supplyanddemandofsolarglasswillmaintainahealthyrelationshipinboth历史全球光伏装机容量2023and2024withsolarglasspriceexpectedtoremainstableWerecommendsolarglassindustryleadersandwefavorFlatGlassGroup06865HKratingBuyaswebelievetheexpectedsurgeinsolarglassshipmentwillspeedupitsgrowthin2023-2024RiskGlobalsolarinstallationsmaymissexpectationovercapacityofsolarTglassrawmaterialsandenergypricehikesa我们预计2022年的全球太阳能装机量将达到250吉瓦并于2023年进一步上升至380吉b瓦同比增长52根据SolarPowerEurope的数据2021年全球太阳能新增装机容量达新到约吉瓦同比增长年全球前五大市场合计贡献了吉瓦的太阳能l16821420211287能新增装机量约占全球新增装机量的767随着2022下半年及往后多晶硅新产能的成功源e投放我们预计202220232024年全球太阳能新增装机容量将分别达到250吉瓦380吉瓦吉瓦同比增长国内方面我们预计中国市场将在行4854905202762022-2024年贡献90吉瓦120吉瓦150吉瓦的新增装机量业LSourceSolarPowerEurope多晶硅供应的增加将提高下游产能利用率并推升太阳能组件的产量受供应短缺的影响NewEnergyNewSectore多晶硅的价格在2022年飙升至10年的高位预计多晶硅供应量将从2022年的90万吨跃f升至2023年的150万吨同比增长64预计2022年四季度多晶硅供应激增将提振下游产能利用率以125的超产率计我们估计2022-2024年太阳能组件产量分别将达到313t吉瓦475吉瓦606吉瓦预计2023年和2024年强劲的太阳能组件产量必将带动市场对MEVA背板铝框和太阳能玻璃等太阳能组件辅料的需求a我们推荐太阳能组件辅料制造商由于预计2023-2024年太阳能组件产量将上升我们推荐市场上具有成本竞争优势的龙头太阳能玻璃制造商我们预计2023年和2024年太阳能r玻璃的供需关系将保持健康而太阳能玻璃价格有望保持稳定我们推荐太阳能玻璃行业龙g头重点推荐福莱特玻璃06865HK评级买入因为我们认为太阳能玻璃的出货量预期激增将加速公司在2023-2024年的增长i风险全球太阳能装机量低于预期太阳能玻璃产能过剩原材料和能源价格上涨nSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of6Seandmaymodulesstimulatemoresupplyitsinsurgedramaticofresultaas2023insharplytheboost10approximaofcycleexpansionofsupplytheondependentlargelyismodulesleastatthemwithbringing2024andtons500000innewcapacproduction2023lateinmarkettheentertosetareentrantsmarketplayersnew8approximatelysegmenarouncenteredpolysiliconischainupstreamvalueindustrysolarentiretheofprofitthepresentAtinstallationssolarglobalandproductionputintooperationThesolarinducapaciproductionpolysiliconnewwhichatpacetheondependwillgloballycapacitysolarinstallednewlyofrategrowththeinvestmentenergyTheFigureyearfewDomesticallynextwtheininstallationssolarglobalofdrivergrowthimportant520anbe490willofmarketsoverseasincreaseYoYthatbelieverepresentingrespectivelyWe276202420222023inGW485GW380GW250reachtogloballyyetheduringinstallationssolarofsuccessfulcommissiongrowthofpolysiliconnewproductioncapacityglobalinrestrainedalsoandpricesellinginspikeatoled2021ShortageininvestmentsupplyenergysolarglobalforenginegrowthmajoraasroleimportantmoreaplaytoexpectedoutrollingarecountriesAs2024to2022fromadditionsrenewableambitiousenergyplansinvestmenttotheirmeetobligationsundertheParisagreementcapacityclimateoverseasolarannualglobaltheof55overthanmarketsmoresolarforlargestworldsaccountingthebetocontinuetomarketsEUandUSChinaexpectWeyearthedutotalglobaltheof767aboutforaccounting2021ininstallationssolarnewofGW1287contributedcollectivelyworldYoY220downaddedYoYGW2641The64YoYupaddedJapan342GWand142IndiaGWup259addedUnionYoY422EuropeanGWupthe273addedStatesYoYUnited140GWtheup549addedapproximatelyreached168GWrepresentingayeargrowthinstallationssolarglobalexpectWeSourcee-yearhighyearthriseininriseelas-1CPIAf52oftpagproductioncapacityutilicapacityproductionGlobalsolarinstallationsforecastinGlobal2022polysiliconChinaPhotovoltaicIndustryAssociationIndustryPhotovoltaicChinaeseenseenfoerdisclaimerexpectexpecttheAccordingtodatafr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