8月中国经济温和改善。
　　经济增长：8月投资、消费、出口增长均略有加快；工业与服务业生产加快。
　　通货膨胀：8月CPI同比回升，而核心CPI同比稳定。
　　货币金融：8月社融增长加快。为了支持经济增长，9月15日央行调降存款准备金率。

研究报告全文：InvestmentconsultingbusinessqualificationSECLicense2012No669投资咨询业务资格证监许可2012669号中国经济图观单击此处编辑母版标题样式ChinaEconomicWatchSeptember2023刘道钰LiuDaoyu从业资格号QualificationNoF3061482投资咨询号InvestmentconsultingNoZ0016422EmailLiudaoyuciticsfcom桂晨曦GuiChenxiCFAPhD从业资格号QualificationNoF3023159投资咨询号InvestmentconsultingNoZ0013632EmailGuichenxiciticsfcomThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport重要提示本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用不构成对任何人的投资建议我司不会因为关注收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户市场有风险投资需谨慎Content目录经济增长通货膨胀货币金融EconomicgrowthInflationFinancialdata投资货币政策CPIInvestmentMacroPolicy消费社会融资规模PPIConsumptionAFRE外贸人民币贷款ForeignTradeRMBLoans工业与服务业M2与存款IndustryServicesM2RMBDeposits就业与GDP利率EmploymentandGDPInterestRatesClickthehyperlinkandjumptothespecificchapter点击链接跳转至相应章节ThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport总结Summary8月中国经济温和改善经济增长8月投资消费出口增长均略有加快工业与服务业生产加快通货膨胀8月CPI同比回升而核心CPI同比稳定货币金融8月社融增长加快为了支持经济增长9月15日央行调降存款准备金率ChinaeconomyimprovedmoderatelyinAugustEconomicgrowthInAugustthegrowthofinvestmentconsumptionandexportallacceleratedslightlyTheproductionofindustriesandservicesalsogrewfasterInflationdataInAugustCPIYoYreboundedwhilethecoreCPIYoYwasthesameaslastmonthFinancialdataInAugusttheAggregateFinancingtotheRealEconomyAFREgrewfasterTosupporttheeconomicgrowththePeoplesBankofChinareducedtheRequiredReserveRatioforfinancialinstitutionsby025to105onSeptember15thThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreportContent目录1经济增长Economicgrowth11投资Investment12消费Consumption13外贸ForeignTrade14工业与服务业IndustryandServices15就业与GDPEmploymentandGDP2通货膨胀Inflationdata3货币金融FinancialdataThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport11投资Investment8月固定资产投资增长加快其中房地产基建与制造业投资增长均有所加快InAugustChinafixedassetinvestmentgrowthacceleratedIntermsofmajorcategoriestheinvestmentinrealestateinfrastructureandmanufacturingallgrewfasterMonthlyfixedassetinvestmentgrowthYoYAccumulatedfixedassetinvestmentgrowthYoY固定资产投资房地产基建制造业固定资产投资房地产基建制造业25FixedAssetInvestmentRealEstateInfrastructureManufacturing25FixedAssetInvestmentRealEstateInfrastructureManufacturingtwo-yearaveragegrowthratein20212020two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021151510105500-5-5-10-10-15-20-15Feb-19Oct-19Jun-20Feb-21Oct-21Jun-22Feb-23Feb-19Oct-19Jun-20Feb-21Oct-21Jun-22Feb-23LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport11投资InvestmentTableChinafixedassetinvestmentgrowthrateandMoMchangeofthegrowthrateFixedassetRealestateInfrastructureManufacturinginvestmentinvestmentinvestmentinvestmentAccumulatedYoYgrowthratefromJanuarytoAugust32-889059MoMchangeofaccumulatedYoYgrowthrate-02-03-0402AugustYoYgrowthrate18-1096271MoMchangeofYoYgrowthrate07131028Augusttwo-yearaveragegrowthrate41-12410788MoMchangeoftwo-yearaveragegrowthrate18-012429Augustfour-yearaveragegrowthrate42-375274MoMchangeoffour-yearaveragegrowthrate17-032031TableThegrowthrateofrealestateindicatorandMoMchangeofgrowthrateAccumulatedAugustchangerateMoMchangeofAugustYoYYoYcomparedwith2019changerateFloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssold-71-119-34553Floorspaceofbuildingsnewlystarted-244-236-6460Floorspaceofbuildingsunderconstruction-71-344----Floorspaceofbuildingscompleted192106----Investmentinrealestatedevelopment-88-109-139-11LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport11房地产Realestate近2个月商品房销售面积低位平稳ThefloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldwaslowbutstableinthelasttwomonthsFloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldin30Nationalfloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldmajorcities7-daymovingaverage100001000020232022202120202019sqm2023202220202019sqm3000010090250008070200006015000504010000302050001000JFMAMJJASOND010203040506070809101112LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport11房地产Realestate偏弱的商品房销售使得房屋新开工与房地产投资增速相对于2019年同期维持低位Theweaksalesofcommercialbuildingssuppressedthegrowthratesoffloorspaceofbuildingsnewlystartedandinvestmentinrealestatedevelopmentcomparedwiththesameperiodin2019GrowthratesofRealEstateIndicatorsinasingleRealEstateIndicatorsinasinglemonthYoYmonthcomparedwiththesameperiodin2019two-yearaveragegrowthratein2021Growthrateoffloorspacesoldcomparedwith2019FloorspaceofcommercialbuildingssoldYoYGrowthrateoffloorspacenewlystartedcomparedwith2019FloorspaceofbuildingsnewlystartedYoYGrowthrateofrealestateinvestmentcomparedwith2019InvestmentinrealestatedevelopmentYoY3020two-yearaveragegrowthratein202120101000-10-10-20-20-30-30-40-40-50-50-60-60-70-70Feb-20Sep-20Apr-21Nov-21Jun-22Jan-23Aug-23Feb-19Oct-19Jun-20Feb-21Oct-21Jun-22Feb-23LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport11房地产Realestate1-8月房屋施工面积增速回落而房屋竣工面积增速维持高位8月土地成交有所减少FromJanuarytoAugusttheYoYgrowthrateoffloorspaceofbuildingsunderconstructiondeclinedwhilethegrowthrateoffloorspaceofbuildingscompletedremainsrelativelyhighInAugusttheplannedconstructionareaoflandsoldin100majorcitiesdeclinedAccumulatedfloorspaceofbuildingsunderPlannedconstructionareaoflandsoldin100constructionandcompletedYoYmajorcities10000squaremeters10000AccumulatedFloorspaceofbuildingsunderconstructionYoYsqm20232022202120202019AccumulatedFloorspaceofbuildingscompletedYoY40000252035000153000010250005020000-515000-1010000-155000-20-250Feb-19Oct-19Jun-20Feb-21Oct-21Jun-22Feb-23JFMAMJJASONDLiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport11房价HousingPrices70MajorCitiesNewHousingPricesMoM70MajorCitiesNewHousingPricesYoY70CitiesTier1Tier2Tier370CitiesTier1Tier2Tier3104000806300040220000100-02-0400-06-08-100Jan-19Sep-19May-20Jan-21Sep-21May-22Jan-23Jan-11Nov-12Sep-14Jul-16May-18Mar-20Jan-22Second-handHousingPricesMoMSecond-handHousingPricesYoY70CitiesTier1Tier2Tier370CitiesTier1Tier2Tier31640012300080420000100-0400-08-12-100Jan-19Sep-19May-20Jan-21Sep-21May-22Jan-23Jan-11Nov-12Sep-14Jul-16May-18Mar-20Jan-22LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport11基建投资Infrastructureinvestment8月基建投资增速略有回升AugustinfrastructureinvestmentgrowthacceleratedslightlyInfrastructureInvestmentYoYAccumulatedInfrastructureInvestmentYoYProductionandSupplyofElectricityGasandWaterCurrentyearcumulativeInfrastructureInvestmentYoYTransportStorageandPostInfrastructureInvestmentinasinglemonthYoYManagementofWaterConservancyEnvironmentandPublicFacilities20two-yearaveragegrowthratein202130two-yearaveragegrowthratein20211510205100-50-10-15-10-20-20-25-30-30Dec-18Sep-19Jun-20Mar-21Dec-21Sep-22Jun-23Dec-18Aug-19Apr-20Dec-20Aug-21Apr-22Dec-22Aug-23LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport11制造业投资Manufacturinginvestment8月制造业投资增长加快InvestmentinmanufacturingindustrygrewfasterinAugustMoMchangeofAccumulatedYoYaccumulatedYoYManufacturingInvestment5902OfwhichProcessingoffoodfromagriculturalproducts68-02Manufactureoffoods2808Textileindustry-1508Manufactureofchemicalproducts132-05Manufactureofmedicine0600Smeltingandpressingofnon-ferrousmetal85-17Manufactureofmetalproducts-0407Manufactureofgeneralpurposemachinery4802Manufactureofspecialpurposemachinery7511Manufactureofautomobiles191-01Manufactureoftransportationequipment-08-02Manufactureofelectricalmachineryandapparatus386-05Manufactureofelectronicproductsandequipment95-03LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport11制造业投资Manufacturinginvestment二季度制造业中长期贷款增速高达4031-7月制造业利润同比-184TheYoYgrowthrateofmidlong-termloanbalancestothemanufacturingindustrywasashighas403inQ2whilethetotalprofitofthemanufacturingindustrygrewby-184YoYfromJanuarytoJulyOutstandingmidlong-termloansandtotalInvestmentinmanufacturingindustryYoYprofitofmanufacturingindustryYoYCurrentyearcumulativeinvestmentinmanufacturingYoYOutstandingmidlong-termLoanstomanufacturingindustryYoYManufacturingindustryinvestmentinasinglemonthYoYCurrentyearcumulativeprofitofmanufacturingindustryYoY5030two-yearaveragegrowthratein202140203010201000-10-10-20-20-30-30-40-40-50Feb-19Oct-19Jun-20Feb-21Oct-21Jun-22Feb-23Feb-19Oct-19Jun-20Feb-21Oct-21Jun-22Feb-23LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport12消费Consumption8月消费增速回升AugustconsumptiongrewatafasterpaceTotalRetailSalesofConsumerGoodsYoYAccumulatedTotalRetailSalesofConsumerGoodsYoYTotalRetailSalesofConsumerGoodsYoYAccumulatedTotalRetailSalesofConsumerGoodsYoYTotalRetailSalesofConsumerGoodsYoYtwoorfouryearAccumulatedTotalRetailSalesofConsumerGoodsYoYtwoorfouraveragegrowthratein2021and2023respectivelyyearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023respectively3535303025252020151510105500-5-5-10-10-15-15-20-20-25-25Feb-19Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23Feb-19Sep-19Apr-20Nov-20Jun-21Jan-22Aug-22Mar-23LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport12消费Consumption8月消费增速回升主要因为商品消费增长加快AugustconsumptiongrewatafasterpaceduetocommodityconsumptiongrowthacceleratedCommodityRetailandCateringIncomeYoYCommodityRetailandCateringIncomeYoYexcludingbaseeffectCommodityRetailYoYIncomeofCateringIndustryYoYCommodityRetailYoYIncomeofCateringIndustryYoYtwoorfouryearaveragegrowthratein2021and2023respectively5015401030520010-50-10-10-15-20-20-30-25Feb-19Oct-19Jun-20Feb-21Oct-21Jun-22Feb-23Feb-19Oct-19Jun-20Feb-21Oct-21Jun-22Feb-23LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport12消费ConsumptionRealestate-relatedconsumptionwasrelativelyweakAugusttwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofretailsalesofenterprisesabovethedesignatedsizebycategoryTwo-yearaveragegrowthrateofRetailSalesofConsumerGoodsChangeofgrowthratecomparedwiththelastmonth-150-100-500050100150Total62CommodityRetail57IncomeofCateringIndustry116Petroleumproducts114Motorvehicles82Goldsilverandjewelry72Medicines64Food63Tobaccoandliquor61Clothesshoeshatsandtextiles48Beverage33Dailynecessities25Telecommunicationequipment17Sportsandamusements15Cosmetics13Householdappliances02Culturalandofficeappliances-14Furniture-19Buildinganddecorationmaterials-103LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport12消费Consumption二季度居民收入增长有所加快二季度全国居民人均可支配收入四年平均增长67比一季度高03个百分点比去年四季度的三年平均增速高09个百分点ThegrowthofresidentsincomeacceleratedinQ2In2023Q2thefour-yearaveragegrowthrateofnationwidepercapitadisposableincomeofresidentswas6703higherthan2023Q1and09higherthanthethree-yearaveragegrowthratein2022Q4ResidentsIncomeandConsumptionGrowthUnemploymentRateandIncomeGrowthCurrentyearaccumulativeResidentsIncomeYoYQuarterlyResidentsIncomeYoYtwo-yearthree-yearfour-yearaveragegrowthratein20212022and2023CurrentyearaccumulativeRetailSalesYoYQuarterlyUnemploymentRaterightaxis12twoyearaveragegrowthratein2021and202310608584856054652-450-8448-1246244-1642-20040Dec-18Dec-19Dec-20Dec-21Dec-22Dec-18Aug-19Apr-20Dec-20Aug-21Apr-22Dec-22LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport13出口Export8月出口金额平稳低基数效应使得出口同比增速回升8月中国出口2848亿美元同比下降88环比增长11大体持平于过去10年环比增速的中位数水平增长13ChinaAugustexportamountwasstablewhilethelowbaseeffectcausedYoYgrowthratetoreboundInAugustChinaexportwas2848billionUSDdecreasedby88YoYtheMoMgrowthrateof11wasalmostthesameasthemedianof13inthepast10yearsChinamonthlyexportvalueandquantityYoYtwo-yearaveragegrowthragein2021AugustexportMoMovertheyears出口金额美元当月同比出口数量指数当月同比6ExportUSDchangeYoYExportQuantitychangeYoY452542431202515162121110500-2-10-5-21-10-4-31-15-20-6-52Feb-19Feb-20Feb-21Feb-22Feb-2320132014201520162017201820192020202120222023LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport13出口ExportAugustexportMoMchangebydestinationAugustexportMoMchangebydestination100millionUSD-20-10010203040-15-10-50510Total311Total11UnitedStates272UnitedStates64EuropeanUnion-109EuropeanUnion-26ASEAN109ASEAN26LatinAmerica105LatinAmerica48Africa-46Africa-32HongKongChina-14HongKongChina-07TaiwanChina38TaiwanChina68Japan-98Japan-76SouthKorea13SouthKorea11Australia48Australia84UnitedKingdom-16UnitedKingdom-23Russian-98Russian-95India-12India-12Brazil34Brazil65LiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport13出口ExportTheYoYgrowthratesofChinaexportvaluesandtheirchangesfromthelastmonthbydestination中国对各国地区的出口金额当月同比增速增速较上月的变化300TheYoYgrowthratesofexportvalueChangesofYoYgrowthratesfromthelastmonth2001631000700-25-54-48-100-78-95-123-129-133-145-145-200-196-20-300-400UnitedEuropeanASEANLatinAfricaHongTaiwanJapanSouthAustraliaUnitedRussianIndiaBrazilStatesUnionAmericaKongChinaKoreaKingdomChinaLiuDaoyuZ0016422GuiChenxiZ0013632SourcesWindCITICSFThisreportisnotaserviceunderthefuturestradingconsultingbusinessandtheopinionsandinformationprovidedareforreferenceonlyanddonotconstituteinvestmentadvicetoanyoneCITICFuturesdonotconsiderrelevantpersonnelasclientduetotheirattentionreceiptorreadingofthecontentofthisreport