研究报告全文：能源化工期权日报期权研究2023年9月22日星期五基本面信息卢品先橡胶截至2023年9月15日上期所天然橡胶库存2341944818吨仓单20832015530吨20号胶库存68343-605吨仓单67537-201吨投研经理甲醇库存方面港口库存总量报11321万吨环比936万吨企业库存环比-058万吨报3989万吨传统0755-23375252需求二甲醚开工回落其余开工有所走高总体需求继续回升江浙MTO开工7848环比持平整体甲醇制烯烃开lupxwkqhcn工8473环比233从业资格号PVCPVC开工小幅回升社库小幅去库厂库累库主要是交付前期出口订单部分库存转移至在途预售环比走弱后续检修来看开工预计至9月下旬继续回升出口成交回落海外接单减量F3047321聚丙烯库存方面生产企业库存4915万吨环比累库09万吨贸易商库存1822万吨环比累库122万交易咨询号吨港口库存636万吨环比去库009万吨下游平均开工率5319环比上涨505Z0015541期权分析及策略建议1橡胶期权常俊萍橡胶经过前期持续多头突破上涨而后维持两周多以来高位大幅震荡本周以来连续报收阴线逐渐转弱势形期权研究员成高位震荡短期转弱的市场行情走势形态跌幅014报收于14100期权隐含波动率报收于2347004持changjpwkqhcn仓量PCR偏低位置窄幅盘整报收于063期权分析标的行情沪胶偏多头市场大幅区间震荡逐渐下降回落的市场行情格局期权角度持仓量PCR维持从业资格号在较低水平波动上橡胶期权隐含波动率中位数偏上F03117406策略建议构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益若市场行情急速大涨则逐渐平仓离场如RU2401期权SRU2401P1375010SRU2401P1400010和SRU2401C1425010SRU2401C14500102甲醇期权甲醇地位回暖上升后经过前期两个半月以来的多头上涨后而后维持近两周以来高位盘整震荡本周以来先涨后跌突破前期高点后快速下跌连续报收大阴线形成高位大幅震荡逐渐回落的市场行情跌幅151报收于2536期权隐含波动率报收于3309089持仓量PCR持续下降报收于085期权分析标的行情甲醇表现为沿着中期趋势方向突破上涨后快速下跌的市场行情走势形态期权角度持仓量PCR窄幅盘整较高位置水平波动上甲醇期权隐含波动率持续上升历史较高位置水平策略建议构建偏中性的卖出看涨看跌期权组合策略获取时间价值收益和方向性收益根据市场行情变化动态的调整持仓delta使得持仓delta保持中性若市场行情急速大涨或大跌突破损益平衡点则逐渐平仓离场如MA2311期权SMA2311P247510SMA2311P250010和SMA211C255010SMA2311C2600103PTA期权PTA上周以来加速上涨多头上行本周以来冲高回落连续报收阴线形成中期趋势线方向向上短期弱势偏空头的市场行情走势形态跌幅041报收于6264期权隐含波动率报收于2910-070持仓量PCR持续下降报收于082期权分析标的行情PTA表现为多头突破区间上限大幅上涨而后连续报收大阴线大幅下跌的走势形态期权角度持仓量PCR逐渐上升维持较高位置波动上PTA期权隐含波动率持续上升至历史中位数偏高水平策略建议构建卖出看涨看跌偏中性的期权组合策略获取方向性收益和时间价值收益若市场行情快速大涨或大跌突破损益平衡点则逐渐平仓离场如TA2311期权STA2311P610010STA2311P620010和STA2311C630010STA2311C6400104塑料期权塑料本周以来先涨后跌突破前期高点后快速下跌回落跌破两周以来地点形成上方有压力的短期偏空市场行情跌幅080报收于8265期权隐含波动率报收于1675023持仓量PCR大幅上升报收于141期权分析标的行情塑料跌破震荡区间下限短期弱势偏空头的市场行情格局期权角度持仓量PCR偏中性位置波动上塑料期权隐含波动率历史中位数水平策略建议构建卖出偏空头的宽跨式期权组合策略获取时间价值收益若市场行情快速大涨或大跌突破损益平衡点则平仓离场如L2401期权SL2401-P-820010SL2401-P-810010和SL2401-C-840010SL2401-C-8300105PVC期权PVC前一周连续报收阳线多头突破上涨上周以来逐渐转偏弱下降回落延续一周多以来的弱势下行本周以来加速下跌跌破近两周以来的低点跌幅187报收于6259期权隐含波动率报收于2448049持仓量PCR小幅盘整报收于056期权分析标的行情PVC高位宽幅区间震荡逐渐转为弱势的市场行情走势期权角度持仓量PCR较低位置波动上PVC期权隐含波动率中位数水平策略建议构建卖出偏中性的宽跨式期权组合策略获取方向性收益和时间价值收益若市场行情快速大涨或大跌突破损益平衡点则平仓离场如V2401期权SV2401-P-610010SV2401-P-620010和SV2401-C-630010SV2401-C-640010市场行情期权品种标的合约收盘价涨跌涨跌幅成交量万成交额亿RURU24011410000-2000-014378253408MAMA2311253600-3900-15119224948PTATA2311626400-2600-04122647118LPGPG23115645004500080163718339LL2401826500-6700-080454618941PPPP2401784800-8200-103465418455PVCV2401625900-11900-1871196138145数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期货合成期权期权标的合约平值期权权利金C权利金P合成价格涨跌涨跌幅升贴水剩余天数到期日RU240114000628005960014032-21400-150-6800952023-12-25MA23112550580056502552-3600-1391550202023-10-11TA231163009400150006244-8050-127-2000202023-10-11PG2311565010500222005533-8280-147-11200222023-10-13L2401830022450245008280-11000-1311450772023-12-07PP2401780027700192507885-9050-1133650772023-12-07V2401630026200260006302-11900-1854300772023-12-07数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部注平值是以主力月合约call与put权利金相减最小为基准平值合成期权升贴水平值call权利金-pu权利金-标的价格主力期权合约隐含波动率期权标的合约IMP-CIMP-PIMP-T变化MA20UPLOWRU2401244821112347004216124401883MA2311353730593309089274430622426TA2311312326402910-070245327092198PG2311364236243631090302133212721L2401168816621675023148215731390PP2401176316571711015154916581440V2401261622702448049210822921924数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部主力期权合约持仓量PCR期权标的合约量-Call量-Put量-PCR变化持仓-Call持仓-Put持仓-PCR变化RU240194032567027-0132882118167063-003MA231151624742092-011157335133760085-007TA231154024242079013231771190986082-001PG231126273355128-0091094318943173-014L240180613111630901129215921141030PP24015479001650821926923194120-001V2401151913570890365897233052056004数据来源wind资讯五矿期货期权事业部标的价量关系图1橡胶主力合约走势图15000成交量万12014500收盘价1400000100140001350080130006012500401200011500201100002023-05-192023-06-012023-09-082023-09-212023-03-212023-03-242023-03-292023-04-032023-04-072023-04-122023-04-172023-04-202023-04-252023-04-282023-05-082023-05-112023-05-162023-05-242023-05-292023-06-062023-06-092023-06-142023-06-192023-06-262023-06-292023-07-042023-07-072023-07-122023-07-172023-07-202023-07-252023-07-282023-08-022023-08-072023-08-102023-08-152023-08-182023-08-232023-08-282023-08-312023-09-052023-09-132023-09-18图2甲醇主力合约走势图2700375成交量万2547002600收盘价250030024002252300220015021002000751900180002023-03-242023-07-252023-09-182023-03-212023-03-292023-04-032023-04-072023-04-122023-04-172023-04-202023-04-252023-04-282023-05-082023-05-112023-05-162023-05-192023-05-242023-05-292023-06-012023-06-062023-06-092023-06-142023-06-192023-06-262023-06-292023-07-042023-07-072023-07-122023-07-172023-07-202023-07-282023-08-022023-08-072023-08-102023-08-152023-08-182023-08-232023-08-282023-08-312023-09-052023-09-082023-09-132023-09-21图3PTA主力合约走势图6500621000480成交量万收盘价40060003205500240160500080450002023-03-292023-07-252023-08-312023-03-212023-03-242023-04-032023-04-072023-04-122023-04-172023-04-202023-04-252023-04-282023-05-082023-05-112023-05-162023-05-192023-05-242023-05-292023-06-012023-06-062023-06-092023-06-142023-06-192023-06-262023-06-292023-07-042023-07-072023-07-122023-07-172023-07-202023-07-282023-08-022023-08-072023-08-102023-08-152023-08-182023-08-232023-08-282023-09-052023-09-082023-09-132023-09-182023-09-21标的价量关系图4LPG主力合约走势图600056330035成交量万收盘价305500255000204500151040005350002023-06-062023-07-202023-08-312023-03-212023-03-242023-03-292023-04-032023-04-072023-04-122023-04-172023-04-202023-04-252023-04-282023-05-082023-05-112023-05-162023-05-192023-05-242023-05-292023-06-012023-06-092023-06-142023-06-192023-06-262023-06-292023-07-042023-07-072023-07-122023-07-172023-07-252023-07-282023-08-022023-08-072023-08-102023-08-152023-08-182023-08-232023-08-282023-09-052023-09-082023-09-132023-09-182023-09-21图5塑料主力合约走势图850060成交量万收盘价83005082730040810030790020770010750002023-03-242023-05-242023-07-202023-03-212023-03-292023-04-032023-04-072023-04-122023-04-172023-04-202023-04-252023-04-282023-05-082023-05-112023-05-162023-05-192023-05-292023-06-012023-06-062023-06-092023-06-142023-06-192023-06-262023-06-292023-07-042023-07-072023-07-122023-07-172023-07-252023-07-282023-08-022023-08-072023-08-102023-08-152023-08-182023-08-232023-08-282023-08-312023-09-052023-09-082023-09-132023-09-182023-09-21图6PP主力合约走势图820080成交量万收盘价80007876007078006050760040740030720020700010680002023-03-242023-05-242023-07-202023-03-212023-03-292023-04-032023-04-072023-04-122023-04-172023-04-202023-04-252023-04-282023-05-082023-05-112023-05-162023-05-192023-05-292023-06-012023-06-062023-06-092023-06-142023-06-192023-06-262023-06-292023-07-042023-07-072023-07-122023-07-172023-07-252023-07-282023-08-022023-08-072023-08-102023-08-152023-08-182023-08-232023-08-282023-08-312023-09-052023-09-082023-09-132023-09-182023-09-21图8PVC主力合约走势图68001806600收盘价收盘价1601406400120620010080600063070060580040560020540002023-04-202023-06-262023-03-212023-03-242023-03-292023-04-032023-04-072023-04-122023-04-172023-04-252023-04-282023-05-082023-05-112023-05-162023-05-192023-05-242023-05-292023-06-012023-06-062023-06-092023-06-142023-06-192023-06-292023-07-042023-07-072023-07-122023-07-172023-07-202023-07-252023-07-282023-08-022023-08-072023-08-102023-08-152023-08-182023-08-232023-08-282023-08-312023-09-052023-09-082023-09-132023-09-182023-09-21橡胶期权持仓分布橡胶期权持仓分布图橡胶期权持仓变化图900040080003007000600020050001004000300002000-10010000-20010750107501125011750122501275013250137501425014750152501575016250107501125011750122501275013250137501425014750152501575016250OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC橡胶期权最大未平仓橡胶认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价17000160001500014000130001200011000100002023-04-032023-04-252023-03-212023-03-242023-03-292023-04-072023-04-122023-04-172023-04-202023-04-282023-05-082023-05-112023-05-162023-05-192023-05-242023-05-292023-06-012023-06-062023-06-092023-06-142023-06-192023-06-262023-06-292023-07-042023-07-072023-07-122023-07-172023-07-202023-07-252023-07-282023-08-022023-08-072023-08-102023-08-152023-08-182023-08-232023-08-282023-08-312023-09-052023-09-082023-09-132023-09-182023-09-21橡胶期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓橡胶期权持仓量PCR橡胶期权隐含波动率08015000OIPCR140000030CLOSE145000700630328140002606013500240501300022125002004018120000301611500020110002023-06-092023-03-212023-03-292023-04-072023-04-172023-04-252023-05-082023-05-162023-05-242023-06-012023-06-192023-06-292023-07-072023-07-172023-07-252023-08-022023-08-102023-08-182023-08-282023-09-052023-09-132023-09-212023-09-132023-03-312023-04-132023-04-252023-05-102023-05-222023-06-012023-06-132023-06-272023-07-072023-07-192023-07-312023-08-102023-08-222023-09-012023-03-21IMPVMA20UPLOW甲醇期权持仓分布甲醇期权持仓分布图甲醇期权持仓变化图2500060005000200004000150003000200010000100005000-10000-20002100245018501900195020002050215022002250230023502400250026002700280029003000310018501900195020002050210021502200225023002350240024502500260027002800290030003100OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGEC甲醇期权最大未平仓甲醇认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价320030002800260024002200200018002023-04-252023-06-142023-08-182023-03-212023-03-242023-03-292023-04-032023-04-072023-04-122023-04-172023-04-202023-04-282023-05-082023-05-112023-05-162023-05-192023-05-242023-05-292023-06-012023-06-062023-06-092023-06-192023-06-262023-06-292023-07-042023-07-072023-07-122023-07-172023-07-202023-07-252023-07-282023-08-022023-08-072023-08-102023-08-152023-08-232023-08-282023-08-312023-09-052023-09-082023-09-132023-09-182023-09-21甲醇期权到期日收盘价C最大持仓P最大持仓甲醇期权持仓量PCR甲醇期权隐含波动率2402700OIPCR402600200CLOSE352500301602547002400230025120220020080210015200004010190000018002023-04-252023-06-292023-08-282023-03-212023-03-292023-04-072023-04-172023-05-082023-05-162023-05-242023-06-012023-06-092023-06-192023-07-072023-07-172023-07-252023-08-022023-08-102023-08-182023-09-052023-09-132023-09-212023-09-132023-03-312023-04-132023-04-252023-05-102023-05-222023-06-012023-06-132023-06-272023-07-072023-07-192023-07-312023-08-102023-08-222023-09-012023-03-21IMPVMA20UPLOWPTA期权持仓分布PTA期权持仓分布图PTA期权持仓变化图6000012000100005000080004000060004000300002000200000-200010000-40000-6000610061004850495051005300465046504750485049505100530055005700590063006500670069004650475055005700590061006300650067006900OIPOICOICHANGEPOICHANGECPTA期权最大未平仓PTA认购认沽合约最大持仓量所在的行权价80007500700065006000550050004500400020232023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023202320232023202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