研究报告全文：MN30Aug2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateGoertek002241CH1H23weaknessin-lineLowerTPonslowerdemandrecoveryin-lineinTargetPriceRMB1759Goerteks1H23revenuenetprofitgrowthof36-797YoYwaslargelyin-PreviousTPRMB447linewithpreviousprofitwarning1H23GPMdroppedto73-57pptsYoY-UpDownside16125pptsHoHmainlydraggedbyhearablesmartproductsegmentsLookingintoCurrentPriceRMB15162H23EweexpectgradualmarginrecoverywithimprovingutilizationandbetterproductmixandrevenuemayremainweakduetoindustryheadwindsandChinaTechnologyAirpodsbizuncertaintyInlongertermweexpectGoertekwillcontinuetobenefitAlexNGfromARVRcycleandWatchsharegaininFY2425Eanddeliver5813YoY85239000881alexngcmbicomhkearningsgrowthinFY2425ETofactorinsluggish1H23resultsandmarginpressurewetrimmedFY2324EEPSby63-69andadjustTPtoRMB1759ClaudiaLIUbasedonlowered25xFY24EPE7-yrhistavgMaintainBUYclaudialiucmbicomhk1H23weaknessonmarginpressurePositivesignsofGPMrecoveryinStockDataMktCapRMBmn5034242Q23BysegmentGoertekdelivered-8-2518YoYgrowthforAvg3mthstoRMBmn10155precisioncomponentshearableproductssmartproductssegmentsin1H2352wHighLowRMB34341442whileblendedGPMcameat73vs13098in1H2H22mainlyTotalIssuedSharesmn34200draggedbyhearablesmartproductsegmentalGPMof4159vsSourceFactSet91128in1H22For2Q23wesawpositivesignsofGPMQoQShareholdingStructurerecoveryto77andweexpectimprovingutilizationandbetterproductmixGoertekGroup148willfurtherdriveGPMimprovementin2H23EJiangBin84SourceBloomberg202425OutlookTWSrecoveryandXRgamingconsoleasdualgrowthenginesWebelieveGoerteksVRARandgamingsegmentwillbecomeSharePerformanceAbsoluteRelativemajorrevenuedriversinFY2425Eaccountedfor6363ofFY2425E1-mth-164-100salesbackedbynewproductlaunchandsharegaininXRgamingsupply3-mth-194-167chainInlongertermwebelieveGoertekiswell-positionedtocapture6-mth-317-251businessopportunitiesasafully-integratedmanufactureringlobalARVRXRSourceFactSetindustrybackedbyanewwaveofproductlaunchesfromMetaPicoSony12-mthPricePerformanceandAppleincomingfewyearsMaintainBUYandloweredTPtoRMB1759Toreflectsluggish1H23resultslowermarginandmacroweaknesswetrimmedourFY23-24EEPSby63-69OurnewTPofRMB1759isbasedonlowered25xrolloveredFY24EPEprior28xgivenlowerordervisibilityandmarginpressureinnear-termOverallwebelieveGoerteksindustryleadershipandproductSourceFactSetroadmapinTWSXRacousticsgamingsegmentswillallowtheCompanytobenefitfromindustryrecoveryandmarketsharegaininFY2425EWebelieve2023weaknesshasbeenpricedinandweexpectcontinuedsalesmarginalimprovementin2H23EUpcomingcatalystsincludeApplesproductlaunchesMetaPicoXRproductsandmarginrecoveryEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn7822110489499756104071109290YoYgrowth355341494350NetprofitRMBmn4274717492152192407127138EPSReportedRMB129052044070079YoYgrowth449597144582127ConsensusEPSRMBNANA072109128PEx315629331209186PBx5037161514Yield0503050708ROE17960497378SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk30Aug20231H232Q23resultsreviewFigure12Q23reviewRMBmnFY211Q222Q223Q224Q22FY221Q232Q23Revenue78221201122349230549307421048942412221050YoY35434436213420-10Costofsales6716817353206042645428823932332243919438Grossprofit1105427592888409619181166116831612GPM141137123134621117077YoY19352419-415-39-44SGA23976156777478052843698346ofrev3131292426272916RD417011148221555173552279611081ofrev5355355156504051Operatingprofit46831020132419102644161017268OPM60515663-8615-0113YoY44-11505-414-66-102-80Netprofit42759011178176120911749106316NPM55455058-68170415YoY50-75410-322-59-88-73SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesEarningsRevisionFigure2EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue99756104071109290120780138317NA-17-25NAGrossProfit842310322110391676119763NA-50-48NAOperatingProfit11592434275653197046NA-78-65NANetprofit15222407271449026465NA-69-63NAEPSRMB044070079143189NA-69-63NAGrossMargin8499101111139NA-27ppt-4pptNAOperatingMargin1223251544NA-04ppt-21pptNANetMargin1523251741NA-01ppt-17pptNASourceCMBIGMestimatesFigure3CMBIestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue99756104071109290102887113035124106-3-8-12GrossProfit84231032211039113691306314511-26-21-24OperatingProfit115924342756283142714957-59-43-44Netprofit152224072714251137514450-39-36-39EPSRMB044070079072109128-38-35-38GrossMargin8499101110116117-26ppt-16ppt-16pptOperatingMargin122325283840-16ppt-14ppt-15pptNetMargin152325243336-09ppt-1ppt-11pptSourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE230Aug2023Figure4RevenuebreakdownRMBmnFY21FY22FY23EFY24EFY25EPrecisionComponents1384014004145801517915804YoY131444Speakerreceiver81518396864789079174MICECMMEMS36183726383839534072MEMSsensor417430451474498Antenna761913104912071388Opticalcomponentmodule893539593652718HearableProducts3029725881199242111221592YoY14-15-2362Airpods1936516854108601152011760AndroidTWS39004680450048004800SmartSpeaker23802856299931493306Others46521491156516441726SmartProducts3280963082631326544769329YoY8692046SmartWatch765011475137701652419829GamingConsole20164663451440514051ARVRHeadset2011536470338503737537375RoboticsUAVsmartlight302810474109981154812125Non-mainbusiness12751927212023322565YoY551101010Total7822110489499756104071109290YoY3534-545SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure5PLforecastRMBmnFY21FY22FY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue7822110489499756104071109290YoY3534-545Costofsales6716893233913339374998251Grossprofit110541166184231032211039GPM1411118499101YoY195-28237SGA23972843219527062842ofrev3127222626RD41705227478848915137ofrev5350484747Operatingprofit46831610115924342756OPM6015122325YoY44-66-2811013Netprofit42751749152224072714NPM5517152325YoY50-59-135813SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE330Aug2023ValuationMaintainBUYwithnewTPofRMB175916upsideOurnewTPofRMB1759isbasedonlowered25xroll-overedFY24EPEvsprior28xgivenlowerordervisibilityandmarginpressureintheneartermOverallwebelieveGoerteksindustryleadershipandproductroadmapinTWSXRacousticsgamingsegmentswillallowthecompanytobenefitfromindustryrecoveryandmarketsharegaininFY2425EUpcomingcatalystsincludeApplesproductlaunchesMetaPicoXRproductsandmarginrecoveryFigure6PeersvaluationUpMarketCapPriceTPDownPExPBxROECompanyTickerRatingUSmnLCLC-sideFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24EFY23EFY24EA-listedcomponentsGoertek002241CHBUY711015161761633120916154973Luxshare002475CHBUY316673239447NA771411415178104O-film002456CHNR2457550NANA--6770369240Sunway300136CHNR22431691NANA1911532219117136BOE000725CHNR20200388NANA19611610095193HansLaser002008CHNR32102225NANA19314515147696LensTech300433CHNR79651168NANA19314513126785Everwin300115CHNR1602973NANA240127191779132Holitech002217CHNR1261295NANA------Average18714323223865H-listedcomponentsFITHon6088HKBUY9851062194715704045263TengAACTech2018HKHOLD23711552156025815507072947Sunny2382HKHOLD9002644078322348226272578112OpticalTongda698HKBUY9900802113362601011838BYDE285HKBUY93613260317-31991622321117128Qtech1478HKBUY447296362210655060659103TKGroup2283HKBUY1401323415625340506207178Truly732HKNR350087NANA------SMIC981HKNR282021908NANA20420810094642YOFC6869HKNR22891110NANA59540707112108Cowell1415HKNR16281504NANA2181323731179231Average152111131290105SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesTPunderreviewFigure712MforwardPEbandFigure812MforwardPBband120871006805604403202100Aug-15Aug-16Aug-17Aug-18Aug-19Aug-20Aug-21Aug-22Aug-231-yrForwardPEMeanMean1SDMean-1SD1-yrForwardPBMeanMean1SDMean-1SDSourceBloombergCMBIGMSourceBloombergCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE430Aug2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue577437822110489499756104071109290Costofgoodssold484846716893233913339374998251Grossprofit9259110541166184231032211039Sellingexpense476445548399416437Adminexpense163019522295179622902404RDexpense342641705227478848915137Otherincome225467373373373373Otherexpense2362711797114114114Investmentgainloss13946936363636Othergainslosses9880105105105105EBIT326146831610115924342756NetInterestincomeexpense491167149149149149Otherincomeexpense3977144144144144Pre-taxprofit322246061509130325782901Incometax370299282261129145Aftertaxprofit285243071791156424492756Minorityinterest43242424242Netprofit284842751749152224072714BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets281293516245563451344858251043Cashequivalents77881004912683191391372622172Accountreceivables100451194914444141541567715645Inventories91711208217349107541809212139Prepayment2969851515151FinancialassetsatFVTPL251119339339339339Othercurrentassets579850698698698698Non-currentassets209892591731613349143753839862PPE167532025023884275033012832452Deferredincometax2764951370137013701370InvestmentinJVsassos0437361361361361Intangibles273030943301330133013301Goodwill171717171717FinancialassetsatFVTPL357466699699699699Othernon-currentassets5186521663166316631663Totalassets491186107977176800488612090906Currentliabilities227362980342721440384806550543Short-termborrowings31904285712191211112113121Accountpayables173242127230599299163194332421Taxpayable195357285285285285Othercurrentliabilities88228223676367636763676Accruedexpenses114510671040104010401040Non-currentliabilities664833454197419741974197Long-termborrowings275422042206220622062206Bondpayables3031210471471471471Deferredincome323390816816816816Othernon-currentliabilities539540705705705705Totalliabilities293843314846919482365226254741Sharecapital327534163420342034203420Retainedearnings3812947810281102811028110281Otherreserves130821672518083196372168323990Totalshareholdersequity197342793130258318123385836165Minorityinterest80604766766766766Totalequityandliabilities491186107977176800488612090906PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE530Aug2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation322246061509130325782901Depreciationamortization218829183651246028753176Taxpaid370299282261129145Changeinworkingcapital22681186924620368356463Others3741871951149149149Netcashfromoperations76828598831710334140312502InvestingCapitalexpenditure559969628090550055005500Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments20830832118000Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term20531021061000investmentsOthers30017471000Netcashfrominvesting530167689077550055005500FinancingDividendpaid572675953228361407Netborrowings10029133197200020002000Proceedsfromshareissues512179395000Others31662030631149149149Netcashfromfinancing16423872008162314901444NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear309569139138108001725611843Exchangedifference2057414000Cashattheendoftheyear6913913810800172561184320289GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue643355341494350Grossprofit7081945527822669EBIT11794366562801100133Netprofit1224501591130582127PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin1601411118499101ReturnonequityROE15917960497378GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecCurrentratiox121211101010Receivableturnoverdays575513459459459459Inventoryturnoverdays545577576576576576Payableturnoverdays101610491015101510151015VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE345315629331209186PB515037161514Divyield050503050708SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE630Aug2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE7