研究报告全文：MN30Aug2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateBinjiangService3316HK1H23missedfuturegrowthunderpressureCompanys1H23earningsmissedwithNPgrewat21YoYvsoriginalFYTargetPriceHK3433targetof30given1lateapprovalofwithholdingtaxdeductionwhichcouldPreviousTPHK358havesentNPgrowthto29in1H232GPmargindeclined48pptsto267UpDownside855mainlydrivenbyrevenuestructurechangeincommunityVASWeliketheCurrentPriceHK1850companyforitsstableparentcogoodcashflowandhighdividendpay-outratiobutloweredourforecastinNPby4-11inFY23-25EtoreflectitspressureonChinaPropertyManagementboththird-partyexpansionandtwoVASsegmentsMaintainBUYwithnewTPofHK3433representing16x2023EPEMiaoZHANG1H23earningsmissedduetolatewithholdingtaxreliefandmargin85237618910contractionCompanydelivered43YoYgrowthinrevenuetoRMB12bnzhangmiaocmbicomhkin1H23andnetprofitgrew21YoYtoRMB231mnmissingourNikaMAexpectationThiswasmainlydueto1withholdingtaxdeductionapproval85239000805waslater-than-expectedCompanysdividendpaidtonon-PRCreceiversnikamacmbicomhkwassubjecttoawithholdingtaxrateof10theon-goingtaxdeductionapplicationwilllowertherateto5representingRMB21mnimpairmentStockDatareversalTheNPgrowthcouldreach29ifapplicationapprovedearlier2MktCapHKmn51135Avg3mthstoHKmn30GPmargindeclined48pptsto267mainlycausedbycommunityVAS52wHighLowHK27501322structurechangeTotalIssuedSharesmn2764VASgrowthunderpressureNon-ownerVASsegmentrecordedrevenueSourceFactSetofRMB279mnwithgrowthslowed19YoYin1H23from457in1H22ShareholdingStructureand288inFY22asdeveloperscontinuetocutexpenseduetoliquidityGREATDRAGONVENTURES459strainCommunityVASbooked212YoYgrowthinrevenuebuttheGPLTDmarginwaslargelycontractedto348in1H23from715in1H22andHAOYUVENTURESLTD129SourceBloomberg483inFY22asthehousingbrokerageserviceandhomelivingserviceswithhighGPmarginswereimpactedbyslowrecoveryofpropertymarketSharePerformanceandconsumptionandcompanyputsmoreeffortsonsoftfurnishingAbsoluteRelativebusinesswithlowermarginthatleadstopropergrowthinrevenuebutabig1-mth-147-813-mth-52-49declineinGPmarginThetrendislikelytocontinuein2H23inourview6-mth-236-182OperatingcashflowremainedgoodCompanysoperatingcashflowSourceFactSetincreased39YoYin1H23thankstolessPMfeedelayinhigh-end12-mthPricePerformanceprojectsandmorerevenuecontributionfromserviceswithfeecollectedinadvancelikesoftfurnishingMaintainBUYandcutTPby4toHK3433Welikethecompanyforitslessconnectedtransactionstableparentcogoodcashflowandhighdividendpay-outratioat60MaintainBUYWeloweredourforecastonnetprofitby4-11inFY23-25E25CAGRtoreflectcompanyspressureonthird-partyexpansionamongintensifyingcompetitionandstrugglingVASSourceFactSetbusinessmentionedaboveWecomeupwithanewTPofHK343representing16x2023EPEThecompanyiscurrentlytradingat10x2023EPECatalystswithholdingtaximpairmentreversalStockConnectioninclusionRisklower-than-expectedpropertymarketrecoveryEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn13991983275636214610YoYgrowth457417390314273NetprofitRMBmn32184120515964247991EPSReportedRMB116149187232289YoYgrowth466280252245244ConsensusEPSRMBnana196257330PEx157121927460PBx5440302419Yield38496581101ROE361377366361359SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk30Aug2023Figure11H23resultssummaryRMBmn1H221H23YoY1H20221H2023ERevenue8321190434243-Propertymanagementservices536719344544-VAStononowners235279194343-5SVAS611912122541Grossprofit262318214443Netprofit190231214645EPSRMB069084214645DPSRMB--Dividendpayoutratio--GPMargin315267-48pptNetMargin229194-35pptManagedGFAmnsqm35448737ContractedGFAmnsqm57474229SourceCompanydataCMBIGMFigure2EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue275636214610278136904806-1-2-4GrossProfit733958120079110421353-7-8-11Operatingprofit65282310346859071179-5-9-12Netprofit516642799538702903-4-8-11EPSRMB187232289195254327-4-8-11GrossMargin266265260284282281-18ppts-18ppts-21pptsOperatingMargin236227224246246245-1ppts-19ppts-21pptsNetMargin187177173194190188-06ppts-13ppts-14pptsSourceCompanydataCMBIGMFigure3FinancialforecastofBinjiangServiceKeydrivers2020202120222023E2024E2025EManagedGFAmnsqm203042556983YoYgrowth395040312520BinjiangGroupaffiliates131619232731Thirdparty71423324252MA------ContractedGFAmnsqm35506990113137YoYgrowth324039312520RevenueRMBmn96013991983275636214610YoYgrowth368457417390314273Propertymanagementservices5548411193164721012572VAStonon-propertyowners312420540645771906CommunityVAS941392494647491132Grossmargin313230272626Propertymanagementservices191919191918VAStonon-propertyowners4545454039385S-CommunityVAS557148353534NetprofitsRMBmn220322412516642799YoYgrowth914728252524Netmargin232321191817SourceCompanydataCMBIGMPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE230Aug2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue96013991983275636214610Costofgoodssold6639491390202326633410Others000000Grossprofit2974505927339581200Operatingexpenses44607682135165Sellingexpense348171818Adminexpense40546286113144Operatingprofit2533905166528231034Otherincome101015777Otherexpense121221141110NetInterestincomeexpense303242424242Otherincomeexpense113333Pre-taxprofit2844235616978681080Incometax6498142174217270Aftertaxprofit220325419523651810Minorityinterest1377811Netprofit220322412516642799Netdividends132106247310385479BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets136814822640361647205998Cashequivalents8059061950272236044626Restrictedcash465758585858Accountreceivables96173343477627799Inventories5279147215283362STbankdeposits369243132132132132FinancialassetsatFVTPL0240000Contractassets009131721Non-currentassets134202354357362367PPE172027303540Deferredincometax131926262626InvestmentinJVsassos469999Othernon-currentassets101157292292292292Totalassets150316852994397450836365Currentliabilities6437111681234130463860Short-termborrowings000000Accountpayables47349667297812881649Othercurrentliabilities6170101101101101Leaseliabilities120000Contractliabilities107144907126116572110Non-currentliabilities1027272727Deferredincome0027272727Othernon-currentliabilities100000Totalliabilities6447111708236830733887Sharecapital000000Retainedearnings000000Otherreserves8419411246157219842464Totalshareholdersequity8429421246157319852464Minorityinterest173240332514Totalequityandliabilities150316852994397350826365PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE330Aug2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation2844235616978681080Depreciationamortization668798586Taxpaid489691174217270Changeinworkingcapital9669670459488563Others192225244948Netcashfromoperations3182421123108512731507InvestingCapitalexpenditure81322455Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments001000Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term431432372000investmentsOthers382354318000Netcashfrominvesting416632455FinancingDividendpaid80219111310385479Proceedsfromshareissues11132000Others322000Netcashfromfinancing72208111310385479NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear517805906195027223604Exchangedifference211000Cashattheendoftheyear8059061950272236044626GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue368457417390314273Grossprofit509512317238306253Operatingprofit813541323263262257Netprofit914466280252245244PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin310321299266265260Operatingmargin263279260236227224ReturnonequityROE281361377366361359GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecCurrentratiox212116151516VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE153157121927460PB405440302419Divyield3938496581101SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE430Aug2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5