研究报告全文：MN30Aug2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateChinaSuntien956HKMarginallydropingastransmissionvolumeandsteadypowergenerationChinaSuntiens1H23attributablenetprofitdropped1097YoYtoRMB1439mnTargetPriceHK416andoperatingcashflowsdeclinedby125YoYThemisswasattributableto1PreviousTPHK457reducedgastransmissionvolumegrowth2lowerwholesalesgastransmissionUpDownside430fee3feebleeconomicrecoveryand4on-gridtarifffallthankstorisingelectricityCurrentPriceHK290tradingMgmtstayspositivein2H23EwithlowergascostasgassourcesdiversityChinaEnergyandsturdilyproceedingwithprojectconstructionsAdditionallySuntiensnewenergyinstallationwillspeedupin2H23andwepredictitcanachieve480MWinMeganXiaCESGA2023ThuswelowerFY2324Eearningsby7239toRMB21952699mn85237610836meganxiacmbicomhkMaintainBUYwithTPtrimmedtoHK4161H23earningsslightlymissedSuntiensrevenueslippedby174YoYStockDataanditsnetprofitdroppedby1532YoYThemisswasdraggedby1forMktCapHKmn2900newenergysegmentweakerwindresourcesleadtomissedpowergenerationAvg3mthstoHKmn16652wHighLowHK388269growthof191to7719GWhon-gridtariffdeclinedaslargerproportionofTotalIssuedSharesmn1000electricitytrading2ForgassegmentthetotalgastransmissionvolumeSourceFactSetdecreasedby29YoYInparticularretailgassalesandwholesalesgassalesvolumesqueezedby63YoYand49YoYAdditionallythedeclinedShareholdingStructurewholesalesgastransmissionfeedroppedfromRMB0223cbmtoCitygroupInc87RMB0152cbmincl-taxandrelativelyhighgascostweighedSuntiensgasBrownBrothersHarriman72CosegmentprofitSourceHKEx2H23toimprovegastransmissionvolumeandspeedupnewenergyinstallationEventhough1H23totalgassalestransmissionvolumedroppedSharePerformanceyear-on-yearwithhighergascostweareoptimisticonSuntiensearningsAbsoluteRelativegrowthin2H23Eduetocontinuouseconomicrecoveryandlowergascostof1-mth1896gassourcediversityAdditionallythenewenergyinstallationprogresswas3-mth-37-33slowerduetodelayedquotaapprovalin1H23Suntiensmgmtstatesthatits6-mth-157-98SourceFactSetnewenergyinstallationprogresswillspeeduptoreachitstargetof450-500MWinFY23EWemaintainedourexpectationofitsnewlyinstalledwind12-mthPricePerformancepowercapacityof480MWandongrid-tariffofRMB0446cbmin2023TheTangshanLNGprojectsfirstphasesmoothlyinvolvedinoperationsSuntiensphaseIoftheTangshanLNGReceivingStationprojectcompletedfirstLNGshipmentTheprojectedLNGusagefortheprojectfrom2023to2025isestimatedtobe400-5001500-200020003000thoustonsAsadditionalphasesoftheprojectbecomeoperationalgraduallysignificantincreasesinprofitabilityareanticipatedSourceFactSetMaintainBUYwithTPadjustedtoHK416WereviseourFY2324Eearningsoutlookslightlyby-72-39toRMB21952699mnrespectivelyonlower-than-expectedgastransmissionvolumeandmoreconservativeassumptionwith33powergenerationgrowthin23EHoweverwethinkSuntienisstillontracktoaccelerateearningsgrowthinFY23EOurSOTP-basedTPiscutfromHK457toHK416afteradjustingFXreflecting73xforwardPElowerthan3-yearavgPEof816xMaintainBUYEarningsSummaryYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn1598518561185272002622723NetprofitRMBmn2174524396208572562232944EPSReportedRMB056063054067086YoYgrowth491122145228286ConsensusEPSRMB054054061069070PEx6254504031PBx0807050504ROE1071008092109SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk30Aug2023Figure1RevisiontableandkeyassumptionOldNewChange2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025E2023E2024E2025ERevenueRMBmn201482213024997185232002222720-81-95-91NetIncomeRMBmn236627773471219526683354-72-39-34EPSRMB057066083052064080-72-39-34OurestvsConsensusDiffwithconsensusConsensusEarningsRMBmn252725272527-13156327ConsensusEPSRMB063063063-16318279SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure2ValuationTargetPershareMultipleRMBWindSolarsegment-PBR08x166Pipedgassupplysegment-PER10x212Totalvalue378416PersharevalueHKDSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE230Aug2023Figure3PeerstableCityGasClosingMktcapEPS23-25EPERPBRPriceCompanyTickerHKHKmn23E24E25ECAGR23E24E25E23E24E25ECHINAGASHOLDIN384HK1068581027860412614416027847744669085079074ENNENERGY2688HK111112566558576384892421129011601160245216192TIANLUNGASHOL1600HK579568511477508507709410601666666103074naCHINARESGAS1193HK2885667592713325728932125112310001000153139130TOWNGASSMARTEN1083HK392127742040604005105947978770770058056054KUNLUNENERGY135HK745645080727207808308711841795795089083077Average958684121109SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure4PeerstablePoweroperatorsClosingMktcapEPS23-25EPERPBRPriceCompanyTickerHKHKmn23E24E25ECAGR23E24E25E23E24E25ECHINASUNTIEN-H1071HK2902675324055066081216490412332053049046CHINAPOWERINTE2380HK2873550233031045056524875596473072065061CHINARESPOWER836HK15847619743256302352322620525450086078070CGNNEWENERGYH1811HK21993969000500600708537450417nana061CHINALONGYUAN-H916HK61612601452095113130255603507441065058052CHINADATANGC-H1798HK2331694772038043052262566500418086074064DATANGINTLPO-H991HK1274496543020030037na590394319033030028HUANENGPOWER-H902HK40611609609073082102859518463372060056045HUADIANPOWER-H1071HK3175286649052065074397569453398056050038CONCORDNE1071HK064551610012014017128496425350094089078Average594740070605SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure5PEBandSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure6PBBandSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE330Aug2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue125111598518561185272002622723Costofgoodssold90991123113313135671421515637Grossprofit341247545248496058117086Operatingexpenses608766842783823907Sellingexpense111111Adminexpense590722801762784844Others184341203862Operatingprofit280339884406417749886179Otherexpense92511311152122913061421ShareoflossesprofitsofassociatesJV213263287312345381EBITDA209131203540326040275139Pre-taxprofit224332973743344742035312Incometax370551633589727930Aftertaxprofit187327473111285834764383Minorityinterest3794945936948361010Others787878787878Netprofit143321742440208625623294Corenetprofit143321742440208625623294BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets8634160061508510902118949256Cashequivalents189876487326210526131205Accountreceivables528771525957778182119317Inventories58214105707477Prepayment13919795349329841054Contractassets000131313Non-currentassets486235591262323681897568488240PPE396014593551937588846599778102Right-of-useassets198120181839184918591869Deferredincometax175187191196196196InvestmentinJVsassos272625222119Intangibles221021792150201719521886Goodwill395597393939Othernon-currentassets458955126085518156206128Totalassets572587191877409790918757897496Currentliabilities135361706219209169141992122946Accountpayables181473416269290330Taxpayable136159203140150160Othercurrentliabilities132181564318589165051948122456Leaseliabilities000000Accruedexpenses07870000Non-currentliabilities270263109233014354853885343007Long-termborrowings259222970630429313473389737097Bondpayables000000Othernon-currentliabilities110413862585413849555910Totalliabilities405624815352223524005877465953Sharecapital385041874187418741874187Capitalsurplus149419461039103910391039Otherreserves78211355215239164701830320700Totalshareholdersequity166952376425185266912880431543Minorityinterest353140804720499452755617Totalequityandliabilities572587191877409790918757897496PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE430Aug2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation224332973743344742035312Depreciationamortization146120292484292533233767Taxpaid368539592658717920Changeinworkingcapital1453364209633961797917Others8910521300Netcashfromoperations389944237784230686069077InvestingCapitalexpenditure11332633460026948711312105Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term17358133574340377investmentsOthers169120623469136332683711Netcashfrominvesting98148977980582371072116193FinancingDividendpaid3318521202127412851566Netborrowings721851074034207139084864Proceedsfromshareissues4234801497000Others1872452906000Netcashfromfinancing54389507242279726223299NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear235818876839724021052613Exchangedifference600000Cashattheendoftheyear85804542871731321157116GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue482781610281135Grossprofit3239310455171220Operatingprofit4842310552194239EBITDA3949213579235276Netprofit66518122145228286PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin273297283268290312Operatingmargin224249237225249272EBITDAmargin167195191176201226ReturnonequityROE911071008092109GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecCurrentratiox060908060604Receivableturnoverdays135214201289135314571408VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPE466254504031PB050807050504SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE530Aug2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6