研究报告全文：30Aug2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateHuitongdaNetwork9878HKBUYMaintainLookingintorecoveryin2H23ETargetPriceHK550PreviousTPHK550UpDownside897HTDdeliveredmixed1H23resultswithupbeatmarginRev66YoY62CurrentPriceHK290belowconsensuswhileadjnetprofit20YoYinlinewithconsensusWemodeledrev129YoYinFY23Einwhich2H23ErevwouldacceleratetoChinaEntertainmentSector195YoYConsumerelectronicsandvehiclescontinuetobethemaindriversonsupplychainexpansionandlowproductpenetrationinlow-tiercitiesServicesSophieHuangwouldbottomoutat10growthYoYinFY23EdrivenbySaaSadjustmentswith85239000889substantiallyrisingpayinguserspartiallyoffsetbylowerARPUTheacquisitionsophiehuangcmbicomhkofHosjoy好享家wouldcontributeRMB60mnprofitinFY23EWeslightlyliftedHTDsFY23-25Eearningsforecastby10-14tofactorinbettermarginoutlookEasonXudespitemacrouncertaintyOurSoTP-basedTPisunchangedatHK5585239000849easonxucmbicomhkMixed1H23resultswithupbeatmargin1H23rev66YoY62belowconsensuswhileadjnetprofitreachedRMB245mn07aboveStockDataMktCapHKmn17130consensusourestimatesCommercebiz68YoYwasmainlydraggedAvg3mthstoHKmn1123bydecliningagriculturalproductionhomebuildingliquorandbeverage-52wHighLowHK5772765191-55-164YoYwhileoffsetbyresilientconsumerTotalIssuedSharesmn180SourceBloombergelectronicsvehicles24435YoYConsumerelectronicsandvehiclesoutperformancewereattributabletoimprovedsupplychaincapacitywithShareholdingStructurecooperationwithAppleZTEDellBYDetcServices-58YoYmainlyonWangJianguo2192merchantsolutionsadjustments-276YoYGPMclimbedto23in1H23AlibabaChina1382XuXiuxian1015from22in1H22inwhichservicesGPMsurgedto844from754inSourceBloomberg1H22SharePerformanceLookinginto2H23ErecoveryWemodeledrev129YoYinFY23EinAbsoluteRelativewhich2H23Erevwouldaccelerateto195YoYConsumerelectronicsand1-mth1796vehiclescontinuetobethemaindriversmainlyonsupplychainexpansion3-mth36816-mth-130-30andlowproductpenetrationinlow-tiercitiesOtherverticalssuchasSourceBloomberghouseholdappliancesagriculturalproductionliquorandbeveragewillsequentiallyrecoverin2H23Ewhilehomebuildingwillfurtherdeclinedueto12-mthPricePerformancethedownturninrealestateandconstructionindustriesServiceswouldbottomHK9878HKHSIrebasedoutat10YoYgrowthinFY23EdrivenbySaaSadjustmentswith7060substantiallyrisingpayinguserspartiallyoffsetbylowerARPUWeexpect50acquisitionofHosjoytocontributeRMB60mn66mnprofitinFY23E24E40MaintainBUYWeslightlyliftedHTDsFY23-25Eearningsforecastby10-302014tofactorinbettermarginoutlookdespitemacrouncertaintyWekeep10positiveonitsseculargrowth1024toplinebottomlineCAGRinFY23-025EOurSoTP-basedTPisunchangedatHK55Aug-22Nov-22Feb-23May-23EarningsSummarySourceBloombergYE31DecFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25EAuditorKPMGRevenueRMBmn803559069699771109481YoYgrowth22212910097AdjnetincomeRMBmn379509654777AdjEPSRMB07101315YoYgrowth157343284189ConsensusEPSRMBNA091216PEx33251916PSx018016015013NetgearingNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOANDhttpwwwcmbicomhk30Aug2023Figure11H23financialreviewRmbmn1H202H201H212H211H222H221H23Revenue20679289502997535789406813959243377YoYgrowthNANA45023635710666HoHgrowthNA40035194137-27-460Grossprofit4988477711097119811861294GPM24292631293030OperatingprofitIFRS96311257382367390433OPM05110911091010NetprofitIFRS-231-49-138-39229333383NPM-11-02-05-01060809AdjustednetprofitattributabletoequityshareholdersNon-IFRS17179119209204210245AdjustedNPMattributabletoequityshareholders01060406050506YoYgrowthNANA581416572402200Rmbmn1H202H201H212H211H222H221H23CommercebusinessRevenue20524287782975735469402713908542990totalrev992994993991990987991YoYgrowthNANA45023235310268GPM19272224222123ServicebusinessRevenue109133168270364430343totalrev05050608091108YoYgrowthNANA53510251172594-58GPM598428446785754674844OthersRevenue46385050457744totalrev02010201010201YoYgrowthNANA80304-99538-26GPM752621815844894881827SourceCompanydataFigure2FY22financialreviewRMBmnDec-YEFY18FY19FY20FY21FY22FY23EFY24EFY25ENetrevenue29802436334962965763803559069699771109481Costofrevenue28795423544828563895778588778996522105835Grossprofit10071279134518682497290732493646Sellinganddistributionexpenses4285646108641328130113421480Administrativeexpenses451478415479610471505580RD35495879113121138134Othergains114146145192217000Operationglossprofit207334407639663101412641452Otherexpenses40058160471360707133Lossprofitbeforeincometax1932471977460394411941419Incometaxesexpensecredit82588110193160203241Lossprofitfortheyear296415405350287509654777Adjnetprofit104139197328379509654777MarginAnalysisGrossmargin338293271284311321326333Operatingmargin069077082097083112127133Adjnetmargin035032040050047056066071GrowthAnalysisRevenue46143322131010Grossprofit2753934161212Operatingprofit6122574532515Adjnetprofit33426616342819SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE230Aug2023Figure3CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnDec-YEFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue906969977110948197186117014137984-67-147-207GrossProfit290732493646313939744930-74-182-260OperatingProfit1014126414529661364151949-73-44Adjnetprofit50965477750768287604-41-112AdjEPSRMB1001291530921241638733-63GrossMargin323333323436-00ppts-01ppts-02pptsOperatingMargin11131310121101ppts01ppts02pptsAdjnetmargin06070705060600ppts01ppts01pptsSourceCMBIGMestimatesBloombergFigure4EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnDec-YEFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue906969977110948194930110310125816-45-96-130GrossProfit290732493646323838954474-102-166-185OperatingProfit10141264145291411201314109129105Adjnetprofit509654777456576704116136104EPSRMB100129153090113138116136104GrossMargin323333343536-02ppts-03ppts-02pptsOperatingMargin11131310101002ppts03ppts03pptsNetMargin06070705050601ppts01ppts02pptsSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure5SOTPvaluationBusinessRMBmn23ERevMultipleMethodologyValueCommercebusiness8968802xEVSales17489Servicebusiness87540xEVSales3498EnterpriseValue20987NetCash5186EquityValue26173FX09ValuationHKmn29081TPHKbasedonSOTP55SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesFigure6DCFvaluationDCFvaluationRMBmn2023E2024E2025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E2031EEBIT101412641452175421002494293934363989Tax160203241281336399470550638DA6069798695105115126139Workingcapital250309172197217239263289318CAPEX606060616264656668FCF110313791401169620142375278132363740FCFGrowth252211918171616TerminalValue32450PVFCFTerminalValue1103120110621119115711871211122611937AssumptionsWACC149Taxrate170Riskfreerate36Beta120Marketriskreturn130DebtAssets00Terminalgrowthrate30Debtvalue0WACC55221314151617EquityValue156056524946PV21201206257534946minusNetcash5186Growth256358545047minusMinorityInterest0306559555148EquityValue26387356661565248FX09406862585349TPHKbasedonDCF55457164595450SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE330Aug2023Figure7CompstableCompanyTickerMktcapCurrencyPriceCMBICMBIPEPSFY23-25EPSUSDmnRaitingTPFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ECAGRHuitongda9878HK2101HKD290BUY55025019016002020124ECServiceProviderBaozunBZUNUS219USD4BUY8NA7240020201174LilyBeauty605136CH579CNY11NANA213182NA1211NANARuoyuchen003010CH325CNY19NANA61939429317151445Onechance300792CH788CNY24NANA21918415632282417Transcosmos9715JP1065JPY3195NANA1141039604040412Average18215612613121125ChinaEcommercePinduoduoPDDUS101037USD80BUY10916012510041332822AlibabaBABAUS228450USD90BUY15798938517161411JDcomJDUS58214USD33BUY621321129404040318VipshopVIPSUS8516USD16NANA75736906050518Suningcom002024CH2465CNY2NANANA306114020201NAMeituan3690HK107575HKD135BUY17836523916328231947YatsenYSGUS562USD1NANANA191165100909NAAverage11613911315131117GlobalEcommerceAmazonAMZNUS1374943USD133NANA44033624024221929eBayEBAYUS23197USD44NANA104103982322218GrouponGRPNUS406USD13NANANA26993080807NAAverage27223614418171618SaaSYouzan8083HK319HKD0NANANANANA151413NAWeimob2013HK1436HKD4NANANANA334423530NAKEHoldingsBEKEUS17885USD14BUY2516614212417151317Average16614212425211917DeliverySFHolding002352CH29486CNY44BUY9724419014607060627YTOExpress600233CH6759CNY14NANA1171008808070716JDLogistics2618HK9012HKD11NANA537273180040303NADadaNexusDADAUS1294USD5NANANA12470080605913ZTOExpress2057HK19928HKD192BUY32116513611235302622FullTruckYMMUS7129USD7NANA22217012563524331Average18716612021181524Average20616912614121121SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE430Aug2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25EYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue65763803559069699771109481Netincome1168287509654777Commercebusiness65226794388968898741108450DA3752606979Servicebusiness438795875883877ChangeinWC901794250309172Others100122134147154Others1291446672610675COGS63895778588778996522105835OperatingCF815686149116421702Grossprofit18682497290732493646Capex2645606060SM8641328130113421480Purchaseofinvestments23314----AdminExp479610471505580Others21804925---RD79113121138134InvestingCF1536970606060Othergains137172---Otherrev5645---Equityraised-----Operatingprofit639663101412641452ChangeofDebts97560---CashfromCBraised-10225---Otherincomeexpnet71360707133Others5328937---Pre-taxIncome7460394411941419FinancingCF6291848---IncomeTax10193160203241Netchangeincash13491564143115821642Netprofit350287509654777Cashbegofyr43162967453159627544Adjnetprofit328379509654777FX-----Cashendofyr29674531596275449186BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25EYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ENon-currentassets22451991139813891370SalesmixPropertyandequipment4377737870Commercebusiness992989989990991Right-of-useassets111104746149Servicebusiness0710100908Intangibleassets-----Others0202010101Others20911811125012501250Total10001000100010001000Currentassets2335326784307023363536827Cash29674038596275449186GrowthratePrepayments8417866198611084211888Revenue32522212910097Financialassetsatfair22222Grossprofit389337164118122valueTradereceivables26533127347938274049EBIT57038529247148Others931410955113981142011701Adjnetprofit664157343284189Currentliabilities2723119342214912314924868PLratiosAccountspayables1441914939168361824719717Operatingmargin1008111313Otherpayables66183992310091101Pre-taxmargin0108101213Advancesfromcustomers-----Adjnetmargin0505060707Others121513564373138934049Effectivetaxrate0201020202Non-currentliabilities8473798183ReturnsLeaseliabilities6756565656ROE17499515962Others1717222527ROA1414171921MI13581405140514051405TotalEquity17179360103741163813090Shareholdersequity17179360105301179413246SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE530Aug2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMoritsaffiliateshaveinvestmentbankingrelationshipwiththeissuerscoveredinthisreportinpreceding12monthsCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE6