研究报告全文：30Aug2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdateBaozunBZUNUSBUYMaintainBBMongoodprogressTargetPriceUS76PreviousTPUS84UpDownside78Baozundeliveredmixed2Q23resultsonsofttoplinebutupbeatmarginLookingCurrentPriceUS427into3Q23Eweforecastrevatsingle-digitYoYgrowthonsolidBBMoffsetbydecliningBECforecasting-15YoYwhilethelossofGapChinaisnarrowingChinaEntertainmentSectorSoftBECismainlyonslower-than-expectedGMVrecoveryinJulAugalthoughsomeverticalsegluxuryjewelryoutdoorsgrewatdouble-digitYoYWeSophieHuangmaintainourestimateonGapChinasrevRMB15bnwhileturnpositiveonits85239000889narrowingloss-RMB200mnvsprior-RMB250mninFY23EFurtherstrategicsophiehuangcmbicomhksynergywillbebroughtfromtheacquisitionofHunterWetrimmeditsnon-GAAPOPby3-36inFY23-25EtoreflectsoftBECwithTPatUS76implying11xEasonXuFY24EVEBIT85239000849easonxucmbicomhk2Q23beatonmarginsurprisedespitesoftBEC2Q23rev9YoY37belowconsensuswhilebottomlinewas-RMB4mnaboveconsensusof-StockDataRMB19mnBysegmentproductsales341YoYdrivenbysolidBBMMktCapUSmn219business65QoQconsolidatedin1Q23whileoffsetbyBECsoftness-Avg3mthstoUSmn17713YoYondecliningapplianceandelectronicsaswellasoptimizationof52wHighLowUS904341productdistributionmodelServices-27YoYmainlyduetoanone-timeTotalIssuedSharesmn55SourceBloombergdisposalfromwarehousingandfulfillment05YoYifexcludingdisposalfactorNon-GAAPOPwasRMB07mnduetolessfulfilmentcostandShareholdingStructurenarrowinglossfromGapShanghaiSchroders571GAPongoodprogressBECundernear-termpressureBECwouldsee-TIAA53715YoYin3Q23Egivenslower-than-expectedGMVrecoveryinJulAugFranklin382SourceBloombergalthoughsomeverticalssuchasluxuryjewelryoutdoorsandsuitcasegrewatdouble-digitYoYMgmtguidedBECwillachievepositiveYoYgrowthinSharePerformance4Q23Ethankstoanoptimizeddistributionchannelandramp-upondemandAbsoluteRelativeforhigh-qualityservicesforbrandsForBBMbusinesswemaintainour1-mth-201-170estimateonGapChinasrevatRMB15bnwhileturnpositiveonits3-mth-100-141narrowinglossatRMB200mnvsprior-RMB250mninFY23EGapChinas6-mth-389-488samestoregrowthwas11YoYin2Q23attributabletohigherconversationSourceBloombergratesandscalingbackdiscountsMgmtstatedthatthegrowthacceleratedinAugalongwithnewproductinitiativesandmarketingcampaignsWeforecast12-mthPricePerformancenon-GAAPOPat-RMB100mnin3Q23EinwhichBBMatRMB60mnUSBZUNUSCCMPrebasedAcquisitionofHuntertobringstrategicsynergyHunterasapremium12lifestylebranddeliveredsolidgrowthwithprofitabilityAfter51acquisition10BaozunwouldhelpHuntertoexpandinChinaandSEAandcreatemore8opportunitiestocooperatewithABGGroupwhoowns50brandsAsHunter6isaboutiquebrandthefinancialimpactwouldbelimited4MaintainBUYWetrimmeditsnon-GAAPOPby3-36inFY23-25Eto2reflectsoftBECwithTPatUS76implying11xFY24EVEBITofBECor021xFY24EPEAug-22Nov-22Feb-23May-23EarningsSummarySourceBloombergYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn939684019149975310241AuditorDeloitteYoYgrowth6211896650AdjnetincomeRMBmn20013278151400AdjEPSRMB2721122362YoYgrowth6822NANA1635ConsensusEPSRMBNANA155075PEx111142NA11945PSx0202020202ROE939684019149975310241NetgearingNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashNetcashSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOANDhttpwwwcmbicomhk30Aug2023Figure12Q23financialreviewRMBmn3Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q23QoQYoYConsensusDiffRevenue189931731984212217412553188823202392409-37Operatingprofit157441232618413610NA30NANetprofit293812278157284842076NA57NAAdjnetprofit8876111313813467NA19NAEPSRMB12111100200202223202200768NA022NAMarginGrossmargin686671700716762748732709731Operatingmargin-8201-21-11-1507-22-16-13Adjnetmargin-46240101-0854-07-02-08GrowthRevenueYoY38-52-18-79-83-195-4993RevenueQoQ-176671-37569-179466-261229OperatingprofitNA-987-1778NANA22-2906AdjnetprofitNA-721-981-992NA62-6105SourceCompanydataBloombergFigure22Q23revenuebreakdown3Q214Q211Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q23QoQYoYRevenueRMBmn1899317319842122174125531888232022993Productcsales7001230681694497772666930397341Services11991943130314281244178112221390138-271Q222Q221Q232Q23QoQYoYRevenueRMBmn198421221888232022993ProductSales6816946739303834E-CommerceBEC68169447760627-13Appliances35136322527623-24Electronics13289445015-43Beautyandcosmetics6380671045730Others134162142175248BrandManagementBBM0019632465NAServicesrevenue130314281215139014-3Onlinestoreoperations39237035737963Apparelandaccessories26524425625816Sportswear888489981016Otherapparel89676865-3-2Luxury89939998-15Others127126109130203Inter-segmenteliminations-9NANAWarehouseandfulfillment52561148757117-7DigitalmarketingandITsolutions386447377446180Inter-segmenteliminations00-7-614NASourceCompanydataFigure3CMBIGMestimatesvsconsensusCMBIGMConsensusDiffRMBmnDec-YEFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue914997531024199761089011855-83-104-136Grossprofit652370037415700776438583-69-84-136Non-GAAPOP1128159331303539-641-72100Adjnetprofit7815140081310476NA-513-159EPSRMB122234616148503750NA-535-179Grossmargin71371872470270272411ppts16ppts00pptsOperatingmargin012958032845-02ppts01ppts12pptsNetmargin-091539082840-17ppts-13ppts-01pptsSourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE230Aug2023Figure4EarningsrevisionNewOldDiffRMBmnDec-YEFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenue9149975310241104721148312351-126-151-171Grossprofit652370037415764486129449-147-187-215NonGAAPOP1128159311441866-28-363-316Adjnetprofit7815140082276617NA-454-352EPSRMB122234616128428950NA-454-352Grossmargin9149975310241104721148312351-126-151-171Operatingmargin652370037415764486129449-147-187-215Netmargin1128159311441866-28-363-316SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesFigure5ValuationcompsCompanyTickerMktcapCurrencyPriceCMBICMBIPEPSFY23-25EPSUSDmnRaitingTPFY23EFY24EFY25EFY23EFY24EFY25ECAGRBaozunBZUNUS219USD4BUY76NA11945020202NAECServiceProviderLilyBeauty605136CH579CNY11NANA213182NA1211NANARuoyuchen003010CH325CNY19NANA61939429317151445Onechance300792CH788CNY24NANA21918415632282417Transcosmos9715JP1065JPY3195NANA1141039604040412Average18215612611100925ChinaEcommercePinduoduoPDDUS101037USD80BUY10916012510041332822AlibabaBABAUS228450USD90BUY15798938517161411JDcomJDUS58214USD33BUY621321129404040318VipshopVIPSUS8516USD16NANA75736906050518Suningcom002024CH2465CNY2NANANA306114020201NAMeituan3690HK107575HKD135BUY17836523916328231947YatsenYSGUS562USD1NANANA191165100909NAAverage11616311311100917GlobalEcommerceAmazonAMZNUS1374943USD133NANA44033624024221929eBayEBAYUS23197USD44NANA104103982322218GrouponGRPNUS406USD13NANANA26993080807NAAverage1041869618171618SaaSYouzan8083HK319HKD0NANANANANA151413NAWeimob2013HK1436HKD4NANANANA334423530NAAverageNANA334292522NAAverage16515213614131120SourceBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE330Aug2023FinancialSummaryIncomestatementCashflowsummaryYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25EYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ENetrevenues939684019149975310241Netincome22065319729276Productsales38742644372439624160DA207197179200222Services55235756542557916081ChangeinWC65359393163431Others570899178194187COGS32772256262627502827OperatingCF96383552586253Grossprofit61206145652370037415Capex12401115128136144Fulfilment26612720282129052961Purchaseofinvestments-----SM25502674265327312765Others1616192495050RD448428485488492InvestingCF3761307177186194AdminExp526371823829840Othergains7382914951Equityraised-----Operatingprofit73316899409Changeofdebts548468---CashfromCBraised-----Otherincomenet161614796364Others2012118---Pre-taxIncome15458024736345FinancingCF7491650---IncomeTax552649769Netchangeincash1030257437540159Netprofit22065319729276Cashbegofyr37314700224626213021Adjnetprofit20013278151400FX61120---Cashendofyr47002246262130213080BalancesheetKeyratiosYE31DecRMBmnFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25EYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ENon-currentassets31152725233123172289SalesmixPropertyandequipment653694527551569Productsales412315407406406Right-of-useassets1096847847847847Services588685593594594Intangibleassets39531184460Others971873873873873Total10001000100010001000Currentassets92047397730375948153GrowthrateCashrestrictedcash47002246262130213080Revenue62106896650Short-terminvestments-895895895895Grossprofit10804627459Accountsreceivable22612293229320162509EBIT9873741NANA3128Inventories1074943768911904Adjnetprofit627338NANA1650Prepaymentsandother11701020726750765currentassetsPLratiosCurrentliabilities47773682392039854057Operatingmargin0104181040Accountspayables49447598410021039Pre-taxmargin1669270434Otherpayablesand16421560165417011736Adjnetmargin2116091539accrualsShort-termloan22881016101610161016Effectivetaxrate35946200200200Others352631266266266ReturnsNon-currentliabilities1061764702702702ROE3123122357Long-termloan-----ROA1613081538Deferredtaxliability5228282828Long-termoperating883674674674674PershareleaseliabilitiesEPSRMB0907040821MI15851592159215921592DPSRMB0000000000TotalEquity64815676649067016977BVPSRMB295310337346358Shareholdersequity48964084489851095385SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE430Aug2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBIGMwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5