研究报告全文：MN30Aug2023CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsEquityResearchCompanyUpdatePDDHoldingsPDDUSConsumerwalletsharegainstrategyboostedrevenueandearningsgrowthTargetPriceUS10900PDDHoldingsPDDannounced29Aug2Q23resultsrevenuewasup663PreviousTPUS10900YoYtoRMB523bn2221aheadofourBloombergconsensusestimatesUpDownside364whichweattributabletorobustGMVgrowthandcontinuousincreaseinCurrentPriceUS7991monetizationNon-GAAPnetincomeincreasedby42YoYtoRMB153bn41aheadofconsensusduetooperatingleveragesalesandmarketingChinaInternetspendinggearedatgeneratinghigherGMVfromkeyconsumerwallet-shareSaiyiHECFAgaincategoriesThestrongbeatinresultsechoedourviewthatinthee-85239161739commercesectorPDDhasrelativelymoreproactiveroomtodriveGMVgrowthhesaiyicmbicomhkthroughtargetingbiggerconsumerwalletshareandfurtherincreasingmonetizationrategivenitsrelativelybetterROIcomparedwithpeersMaintainYeTAOfranktaocmbicomhkBUY2Q23resultsastrongbeatOnlinemarketingservicesandothersrevenueWentaoLUCFAroseby504YoYtoRMB379bnin2Q2373oftotalrevenue1618luwentaocmbicomhkhigherthanourforecastconsensusestimatesThestrongbeatinourviewStockDatacanbeattributabletobothstronger-than-expectedGMVgrowthdrivenbyMktCapUSmn1150962theincorporationofmorebrandedproductsandhighASPproductsandAvg3mthstoUSmn5538stronger-than-expectedexpansioninmonetizationrateIn2Q2352wHighLowUS104684446transactionservicesrevenuegrewby1308YoYtoRMB143bn29TotalIssuedSharesmn14403SourceFactSetaheadofconsensuswhichinourviewcouldbeattributedtotherobustdevelopmentofDuoduoGroceryDDGbusinessandincrementalShareholdingStructuremonetizationgeneratedfromcommissionrevenueEntitiesaffiliatedwithZheng279HuangHighersalesandmarketingefficiencyboostedthebeatonearningsEntitiesaffiliatedwithTencent155SourceNasdaqPDDsNon-GAAPGPMdeclinedto643in2Q232Q22747Non-GAAPRDexpenseratiowas40in2Q232Q2262Non-GAAPSharePerformanceSMexpenseswereRMB166bnin2Q23up528YoYequivalenttoAbsoluteRelative317oftotalrevenue2Q22344ourestimate420Themore1-mth-3702disciplinedthanexpectedSMspendingcombinedwithstronger-than-3-mth3312446-mth-46-200expectedrevenuegrowthdroveabeatonnon-GAAPOPMAlthoughSourceFactSetinternationalexpansionsustainedatarapidpacePDDsoverallnon-GAAPOPMwas279in2Q232Q22335betterthanourestimateat26612-mthPricePerformanceFuturegrowthstrategyandoutlookPDDplanstocontinuetostrengthenitsinfrastructureandsupplychaincapabilitieswithindomesticandoverseasmarketswhichaimsathelpingmerchantsandbrandtoachievesustainablebusinessoperationonitsplatformWebelievethisisamust-havetrendinChinase-commerceindustrytoremaincompetitiveinthelongtermEarningsSummarySourceFactSetYE31DecFY21AFY22AFY23EFY24EFY25ERevenueRMBmn93950130558175379213872247820YoYgrowth579390343219159NetprofitRMBmn77687315381395546549721671146AdjustednetprofitRMBmn138295395297492062657174790616EPSAdjustedRMB9562745340045415464ConsensusEPSRMB9562745273833204023PEx1230154188136111PBx12741443224ROE115327275271244SourceCompanydataBloombergCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE1MOREREPORTSFROMBLOOMBERGRESPCMBRGOORhttpwwwcmbicomhk30Aug2023Figure1PDDquarterlyfinancialresults2Q23Diff2Q23DiffRMBmn1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q23CMBIConsensusestimatesOnlinemarketingservicesandothers1820225223284823102327244379333266916132066183YoYgrowth290395587383497504Transactionservicesfees559162167022879710393143481028239511142288YoYgrowth907106710208628591308Totalrevenue2379431440355043982037637522814295121743282208YoYgrowth73364651462582663Grossprofit16634234782809030893265123359132359383139170Operatingprofit2154869710437911469291271989234258934424Non-GAAPnetprofit420010776124471210610126152691078041610805413-111-83GPM699747791776704643753ppt725ppt3637OPM91277294229184243208ppt206ppt4142Non-GAAPNPM177343351304269292251ppt250pptSourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE230Aug2023FinancialSummaryINCOMESTATEMENT2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnRevenue5949293950130558175379213872247820Costofgoodssold192793171831462423664980357904Grossprofit402136223299095133013164069189916Operatingexpenses49594553356869390864103321112535Sellingexpense411954480254344737538266989100Adminexpense150715413965515160677030RDexpense6892899310385119601458516405Others000000Operatingprofit9380689730402421496074777382Interestincome245530623997597862778036Interestexpense757123152242424Foreignexchangegainloss22572150150150150Others1946562221122812281228Pre-taxprofit7263945536419491806807886471Incometax01934472697321321219463Others84247155106106106Aftertaxprofit7180776931538395555497267115Minorityinterest000000Netprofit7180776931538395555497267115Adjustednetprofit29651383039530492066571779062BALANCESHEET2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnCurrentassets149524160909216618270652346115438136Cashequivalents2242164273432687369161981253252Restrictedcash524225961757974579745797457974Accountreceivables7306745887899631116Prepayment516034252298308737654363Othercurrentassets6879190767121431121431121431121431Non-currentassets93852030120502238892397323765PPE20322031045178921742265Right-of-useassets6309391416141614161416Intangibles1277701134277724772177Othernon-currentassets72751645717907179071790717907Totalassets158909181210237120294541370088461901Currentliabilities8388293730116889122398132279145082Short-termborrowings1866013886138861388613886Accountpayables538346251063317658106835374979Othercurrentliabilities167351670718124236842805132073Leaseliabilities253427602602602602Accruedexpenses111931408620961184152138723543Non-currentliabilities14851123652460246024602460Convertiblebonds14433117891576157615761576Othernon-currentliabilities418577884884884884Totalliabilities98733106095119349124857134739147542Sharecapital000000Capitalsurplus866999534199255992559925599255Retainedearnings25475177071519367106132771211781Otherreserves104825203322332233223322Totalshareholdersequity6017675115117771169683235349314359Totalequityandliabilities158909181210237120294541370088461901PLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE330Aug2023CASHFLOW2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRMBmnOperatingProfitbeforetaxation7263945536419491806807886471Depreciationamortization65214951948335941934669Taxpaid01934472697321321219463Changeinworkingcapital310501356298864517903112052Others37596204498092261080012001Netcashfromoperations281972878348508565517888995731InvestingCapitalexpenditure4332872611350842774461Acquisitionofsubsidiariesinvestments9316013026828596000Netproceedsfromdisposalofshort-term55083975470000investmentsOthers2384458845000Netcashfrominvesting383583556222362350842774461FinancingNetborrowings90618750000Proceedsfromshareissues5089303915000Sharerepurchases000000Others003905000Netcashfromfinancing51799187510000NetchangeincashCashatthebeginningoftheyear3334674844660443432687369161981Exchangedifference140145100000Others0057974000Cashattheendoftheyear748446604415027587369161981253252GROWTH2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecRevenue974579390343219159Grossprofit689548592342233158Operatingprofitnana3408386441274Netprofitnana3060254390221Adjnetprofitnana1858245336203PROFITABILITY2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecGrossprofitmargin676662759758767766Operatingmargin15873233240284312Adjnetprofitmargin50147303281307319ReturnonequityROE169115327275271244GEARINGLIQUIDITYACTIVITIES2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecCurrentratiox181719222630Receivableturnoverdays552718141515Payableturnoverdays792966947299556249164518VALUATION2020A2021A2022A2023E2024E2025EYE31DecPEna1230154188136111PEdilutedna797140171128107PB10212741443224SourceCompanydataCMBIGMestimatesNoteThecalculationofnetcashincludesfinancialassetsPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE430Aug2023DisclosuresDisclaimersAnalystCertificationTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportinwholeorinpartcertifiesthatwithrespecttothesecuritiesorissuerthattheanalystcoveredinthisreport1alloftheviewsexpressedaccuratelyreflecthisorherpersonalviewsaboutthesubjectsecuritiesorissuerand2nopartofhisorhercompensationwasisorwillbedirectlyorindirectlyrelatedtothespecificviewsexpressedbythatanalystinthisreportBesidestheanalystconfirmsthatneithertheanalystnorhisherassociatesasdefinedinthecodeofconductissuedbyTheHongKongSecuritiesandFuturesCommission1havedealtinortradedinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreportwithin30calendardayspriortothedateofissueofthisreport2willdealinortradeinthestockscoveredinthisresearchreport3businessdaysafterthedateofissueofthisreport3serveasanofficerofanyoftheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportand4haveanyfinancialinterestsintheHongKonglistedcompaniescoveredinthisreportCMBIGMRatingsBUYStockwithpotentialreturnofover15overnext12monthsHOLDStockwithpotentialreturnof15to-10overnext12monthsSELLStockwithpotentiallossofover10overnext12monthsNOTRATEDStockisnotratedbyCMBIGMOUTPERFORMIndustryexpectedtooutperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsMARKET-PERFORMIndustryexpectedtoperformin-linewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsUNDERPERFORMIndustryexpectedtounderperformtherelevantbroadmarketbenchmarkovernext12monthsCMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedAddress45FChampionTower3GardenRoadHongKongTel85239000888Fax85239000800CMBInternationalGlobalMarketsLimitedCMBIGMisawhollyownedsubsidiaryofCMBInternationalCapitalCorporationLimitedawhollyownedsubsidiaryofChinaMerchantsBankImportantDisclosuresTherearerisksinvolvedintransactinginanysecuritiesTheinformationcontainedinthisreportmaynotbesuitableforthepurposesofallinvestorsCMBIGMdoesnotprovideindividuallytailoredinvestmentadviceThisreporthasbeenpreparedwithoutregardtotheindividualinvestmentobjectivesfinancialpositionorspecialrequirementsPastperformancehasnoindicationoffutureperformanceandactualeventsmaydiffermateriallyfromthatwhichiscontainedinthereportThevalueofandreturnsfromanyinvestmentsareuncertainandarenotguaranteedandmayfluctuateasaresultoftheirdependenceontheperformanceofunderlyingassetsorothervariablemarketfactorsCMBIGMrecommendsthatinvestorsshouldindependentlyevaluateparticularinvestmentsandstrategiesandencouragesinvestorstoconsultwithaprofessionalfinancialadvisorinordertomaketheirowninvestmentdecisionsThisreportoranyinformationcontainedhereinhavebeenpreparedbytheCMBIGMsolelyforthepurposeofsupplyinginformationtotheclientsofCMBIGMoritsaffiliatestowhomitisdistributedThisreportisnotandshouldnotbeconstruedasanofferorsolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurityoranyinterestinsecuritiesorenterintoanytransactionNeitherCMBIGMnoranyofitsaffiliatesshareholdersagentsconsultantsdirectorsofficersoremployeesshallbeliableforanylossdamageorexpensewhatsoeverwhetherdirectorconsequentialincurredinrelyingontheinformationcontainedinthisreportAnyonemakinguseoftheinformationcontainedinthisreportdoessoentirelyattheirownriskTheinformationandcontentscontainedinthisreportarebasedontheanalysesandinterpretationsofinformationbelievedtobepubliclyavailableandreliableCMBIGMhasexertedeveryeffortinitscapacitytoensurebutnottoguaranteetheiraccuracycompletenesstimelinessorcorrectnessCMBIGMprovidestheinformationadvicesandforecastsonanASISbasisTheinformationandcontentsaresubjecttochangewithoutnoticeCMBIGMmayissueotherpublicationshavinginformationandorconclusionsdifferentfromthisreportThesepublicationsreflectdifferentassumptionpoint-of-viewandanalyticalmethodswhencompilingCMBIGMmaymakeinvestmentdecisionsortakeproprietarypositionsthatareinconsistentwiththerecommendationsorviewsinthisreportCMBIGMmayhaveapositionmakemarketsoractasprincipalorengageintransactionsinsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportforitselfandoronbehalfofitsclientsfromtimetotimeInvestorsshouldassumethatCMBIGMdoesorseekstohaveinvestmentbankingorotherbusinessrelationshipswiththecompaniesinthisreportAsaresultrecipientsshouldbeawarethatCMBIGMmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportandCMBISwillnotassumeanyresponsibilityinrespectthereofThisreportisfortheuseofintendedrecipientsonlyandthispublicationmaynotbereproducedreprintedsoldredistributedorpublishedinwholeorinpartforanypurposewithoutpriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMAdditionalinformationonrecommendedsecuritiesisavailableuponrequestForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedKingdomThisreporthasbeenprovidedonlytopersonsIfallingwithinArticle195oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000FinancialPromotionOrder2005asamendedfromtimetotimeTheOrderorIIarepersonsfallingwithinArticle492atodHighNetWorthCompaniesUnincorporatedAssociationsetcoftheOrderandmaynotbeprovidedtoanyotherpersonwithoutthepriorwrittenconsentofCMBIGMForrecipientsofthisdocumentintheUnitedStatesCMBIGMisnotaregisteredbroker-dealerintheUnitedStatesAsaresultCMBIGMisnotsubjecttoUSrulesregardingthepreparationofresearchreportsandtheindependenceofresearchanalystsTheresearchanalystwhoisprimaryresponsibleforthecontentofthisresearchreportisnotregisteredorqualifiedasaresearchanalystwiththeFinancialIndustryRegulatoryAuthorityFINRATheanalystisnotsubjecttoapplicablerestrictionsunderFINRARulesintendedtoensurethattheanalystisnotaffectedbypotentialconflictsofinterestthatcouldbearuponthereliabilityoftheresearchreportThisreportisintendedfordistributionintheUnitedStatessolelytomajorUSinstitutionalinvestorsasdefinedinRule15a-6undertheUSSecuritiesExchangeActof1934asamendedandmaynotbefurnishedtoanyotherpersonintheUnitedStatesEachmajorUSinstitutionalinvestorthatreceivesacopyofthisreportbyitsacceptancehereofrepresentsandagreesthatitshallnotdistributeorprovidethisreporttoanyotherpersonAnyUSrecipientofthisreportwishingtoeffectanytransactiontobuyorsellsecuritiesbasedontheinformationprovidedinthisreportshoulddosoonlythroughaUS-registeredbroker-dealerForrecipientsofthisdocumentinSingaporeThisreportisdistributedinSingaporebyCMBISingaporePteLimitedCMBISGCompanyRegnNo201731928DanExemptFinancialAdviserasdefinedintheFinancialAdvisersActCap110ofSingaporeandregulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingaporeCMBISGmaydistributereportsproducedbyitsrespectiveforeignentitiesaffiliatesorotherforeignresearchhousespursuanttoanarrangementunderRegulation32CoftheFinancialAdvisersRegulationsWherethereportisdistributedinSingaporetoapersonwhoisnotanAccreditedInvestorExpertInvestororanInstitutionalInvestorasdefinedintheSecuritiesandFuturesActCap289ofSingaporeCMBISGacceptslegalresponsibilityforthecontentsofthereporttosuchpersonsonlytotheextentrequiredbylawSingaporerecipientsshouldcontactCMBISGat6563504400formattersarisingfromorinconnectionwiththereportPLEASEREADTHEANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESONLASTPAGE5