美国坚韧的就业数据预示着加息周期将接近终点。由于市场对美联储加息的预期稳定，基本金属价格预计将不会受到金融因素的抑制。我们预计国内基本金属的消费需求在即将到来的旺季有望受到刺激政策的提振。
　　铝库存的减少预计将持续至下个月，铝加工企业的产能利用率将是主要关注点。铝消费需求略低于市场预期，且铝加工企业的产能利用率回升缓慢。
　　铜价的波动将再度由基本面因素驱动且国内消费需求将支撑铜价。国内铜消费旺季即将到来，且来自地产、电网的消费需求稳定增长。
　　我们维持有色金属行业“跑赢大市”的投资评级。我们推荐中国宏桥（01378 HK）、兴发铝业（00098 HK）和紫金矿业（02899 HK）。

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportNonferrousMetalsSectorKevinGuo郭勇行业报告有色金属行业8675523976671yongguogtjascomhk11April2023TableMainInfoBi-WeeklyUpdateDomesticMarketFundamentalsTo行ImproveinPeakSeason业双周报国内市场基本面将在旺季改善RobustUSjobdataindicatedthattheinterestratehikeperiodmay报approachaterminalpointAsmarketexpectationsonfurtherFedinterestRatingTableInvestInfoOutperform告ReportSectorratehikesarestablebasemetalpricesarenotexpectedtobeconstrainedMaintainedbyfinancialfactorsWeexpectdomesticconsumptiondemandofbasemetalstobeliftedbystimuluspoliciesinthecomingpeakseason评级跑赢大市维持Aluminuminventorydeclinemaybeextendedtonextmonth2productioncapacityutilizationrateofaluminumsemi-fabricatingNonferrousmetalssectorperformancefactorieswillbethemainconcernAluminumconsumptiondemandwas有色金属行业表现slightlylowerthanmarketexpectationandproductioncapacityutilizationrate1400returnofaluminumsemi-fabricatingcompaniesonlyresumedslowly1200Copperpricefluctuationwillbedrivenbyfundamentalsagainand1000800domesticconsumptiondemandwillsupportcopperpriceDomestic600peakseasonforcopperconsumptionisarrivingaswellasconsumption400证demandfromthepropertysectorelectricitygridwillgrowsteadily200告00券WemaintainOutperforminvestmentratingforthenonferrousmetals-200研报sectorWerecommendChinaHongqiao01378HKXingfaAluminium-400-60000098HKandZijinMining02899HK究究-800Mar22May22Jul22Sep22Nov22Jan23Mar23美国坚韧的就业数据预示着加息周期将接近终点由于市场对美联储加息的预期稳定基ResearchReportcopperaluminumzincleadnickeltin报研本金属价格预计将不会受到金融因素的抑制我们预计国内基本金属的消费需求在即将到告来的旺季有望受到刺激政策的提振SourceBloomberg券Equity铝库存的减少预计将持续至下个月铝加工企业的产能利用率将是主要关注点铝消费需证求略低于市场预期且铝加工企业的产能利用率回升缓慢铜价的波动将再度由基本面因素驱动且国内消费需求将支撑铜价国内铜消费旺季即将到来且来自地产电网的消费需求稳定增长我们维持有色金属行业跑赢大市的投资评级我们推荐中国宏桥01378HK兴发铝业00098HK和紫金矿业02899HKTab有色l金e属行业LefNonferrousSectorMetalstMarginSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of8See54321RiskHKAluminiumXingfa00098Mining02899ZijinHKWIngridarrivingisconsumptioncopperforseasonpeakDomesticexpectationOilpriceCopperinventoryofaluminumfoilaluminum20upwassemiwasdemandConsumptionsideDemandTproductionOnlymaterialstosupplementarydueslowwasresumptioncapacityproductionaluminumPrimarysideSupplysemialuminumAluminumpoliciesinstimulustostabilizeintendtoGovernmentspoliciessteadilyeffectiveimprovingreleasearemetalsbaseoffundamentalsdomestichandothertheOnfactorsfinancialexpectationmarketAspointcoolingismarketjobUStheconcernthatreflectedindicatorsmarketjobAll35wasratelowestthe236000increasedUStheinpayrollnonfarmnewMarchInRUpdateSectorthGrConflictbetweenppts0obustobustvestmentsuggestionvestmentemaintainmaintaineChinasmacroReservesTheinterestrateFederalhikeDeownstreamlaswills-owthrateofowthratefabrtpagsgrowsteadilyUSCicatingcompaniesand5ofproducteoppspptsto6topptsjobjobdataindicatedthatinterestratehikefoaAluminumotalproductionotalcapacity40wasaroundontheFederalReservesinterestratehikerateinterestReservesFederaltheonrremainunchangedremain10OutperformrecessionTheUSFederalReserveFedmayraisemayFedReserveFederalUSTherecessionerpricefluctuationwillfluctuationpriceerdisclaimerconsumptiondemand-economiceconomicfabricatingfactoriesnionpptspptsewenergyvehiclesbemaylowermarketthanexpectationstheRussiaandUkrainecontinuemay52Besidesdomesticstimuluspolicyexpectationswillalsocudecreased50comingseasonpeakinthelastweekcapacityutilizationrateofrateutilizationcapacityweeklasttheintotannouncedbyOPECwillfurtherstrengthenexpectationsofoverseasstagflationAlthoughmarketAlthoughstagflationoverseasofexpectationsstrengthenfurtherwillOPECbyannouncedtsivnoydeclinenventory5growthbemaylowerthanmarketexpectationsrateinvestmentratingforratinginvestmentonly8s0ad6and0slightlyonFedinterestratehikerateinterestFedonaportionportionaresumedresumedslowlyDomesticaluminuminventorydeclineinventoryaluminumDomestic000tonsoetamreepcainnpandexpectationmarketthanlowerbedrivenbydrivenbemayeconomwillbethebemainwillconcern60respectively0ofprimaryaluminumsmeltersinSichuanProvinceandGuaandProvinceSichuaninsmeltersaluminumprimaryofbemaybemayabetnetnxmonthnexttoextendedbemaytolowerthaniesP104milliontonswhilethethedomesticexpectWePfundamentalsroductionroductioncapacityutilizationrateofleadingaluminumfabricatingcompanieshigherhigherthanexpectations24nonferrousssmilliontonslasttonsmillionweekmayexpectationsareaswellasaswellbecamestablebecamehlcpctuiiainaefaofrateutilizationcapacitywhileapproachstablebasemetalpricesarenotexpectedtobeconstrainedbyconstrainedbetoexpectednotarepricesmetalbasestablemetalsagainsconsumptiondemandfromthepropertysectorpropertythedemandfromconsumptioninterestratesinterestaluminumanddomesticconsumptiondemandwillsupportcoppersupportwilldemandconsumptiondomesticandhdvindivethealuminumbaradamountsectorosmtodmnobsmtltblfebyliftedbetometalsbaseofdemandconsumptionterminalterminalpointslightlyaoutocapacityroductionpossibleTablePageHeaderoffercoppersupporttopriceanWwireandaluminumextrusionproductsextrusionaluminumandwiresince2022andthequarterlyadjustedjoblessadjustedquarterlytheand2022sinceincreaseerecommendChinaHongqiao01378HK01378HongqiaoChinarecommendeShanghaiMetalsMarketMetalsShanghaianother25bpinMaya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