研究报告全文：银河能化-尿素日报能源化工研发报告尿素日报交易策略核心观点今日国内各地区尿素现货价格普跌为主局部省份跌幅扩大河南地区下游需求持续转差复合肥厂观望降价后企业新单成交依旧乏力厂家出厂报价跌幅扩大部分收单较差企业持续降价促销贸易商低价抛货为主山东地区经过一轮下跌之后部分企业收单略有改善出厂价跌幅收窄山西地区市场情绪转弱需求持续乏力新单成交依旧稀少出厂报价继续下跌河北地区市场情绪相对一般当地需求较前期有所下滑厂家库存略有压力出厂报价弱稳为主安徽两湖江苏地区市场交投冷清出厂报价延续跌势一方面随着华北追肥陆续结束整体需求持续下滑农业需求持续减少下游工业企业高价开始抵触复合肥及板厂暂时观望整体需求较前期有所下滑市场需求乏力表现一般贸易商低价抛货情绪浓厚整体需求支撑力度持续减弱另一方面当下前期多数企业临时停车检修的装置陆续回归供应开始增加尿素日均产量增加至163万吨左右供应紧张局面略有缓解而需求持续低迷厂家库存压力逐渐显现整体出厂价报价跌幅开始走扩供应方面晋城无烟块煤延续跌势6800K小块出厂价1600元吨榆林沫煤平稳5800大卡含税出厂价925元吨烟块煤6200大卡含税出厂价1005元吨尿素现货价格整体弱稳固定床工艺生产利润473元吨水煤浆工艺生产利润757元吨气流床工艺利润1019元吨附近需求方面市场略有分化河南需求有支撑山东河北地区农业追肥需求有所下滑复合肥企业高价抵制三聚氰胺暂时观望出口窗口关闭整体需求支撑减弱库存方面尿素企业库存连续下滑当前企业总库存水平基本回落至往年同期偏低水平以上观点仅供参考不做入市依据行情回顾今日期货盘面弱势震荡最终报收2403-5-021现货市场今日尿素现货价格整体跌幅扩大河南中小颗粒出厂报2650-2690元吨山东中小颗粒出厂报2660-2680元吨河北中小颗粒出厂报2620-2630元吨山西中小颗粒出厂报2580-2590元吨安徽中小颗粒出厂报2720-2740元吨新疆中小颗粒出厂报2380-2450元吨重要资讯截止2023年3月30日第13周中国尿素港口样本库存量8万吨环比减少07万吨环比跌幅805本周期部分货源离港主要是烟台港镇江港小颗粒货源离港其余港口未见明显变化港口库存量下降16银河能化-尿素日报能源化工研发报告相关数据图表心连价格期货山东河南河北安徽江苏湖北联盟正元昊源兰花晋开心2021-03-2920122190216021102190221021852190211022002180207021202022-03-3027962960294030002970299029502850290029402940280028802023-02-2425502785277027202830280027502750273026902800264527102023-02-2724822735276027202810276027402750273026902800265527002023-03-0325062760276027302820278027502710271026902800265027102023-03-0625002760276027402820277027402720272026902800265027102023-03-0924992755276027202810276027502700272026902800265027102023-03-12NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2023-03-1524932730272027002790275027302690268026402770262026702023-03-18NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2023-03-2124712750276027102810277027502710271026602780261027002023-03-25NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2023-03-26NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2023-03-2724642735274026902790275027302680270026302760263026902023-03-2824392735273026902790275027202680269026302750262026802023-03-2924102725272026902790274026902660268026202750260026702023-03-302403NANANANANANA266026502620273025802650固定航天水煤山东河南河北安徽盘面无烟无烟三聚氰价差利润床利炉利浆利电煤利润基差基差基差基差利润块煤沫煤胺润润润2021-03-2917898188168471605840538403900519850014302022-03-30541041441444718381026632828181011201050014502023-02-24200180140250378686958491700177210457600-11502023-02-27268248208318382649898401720177211157600-11502023-03-03204204184294353729961391700181610157700-9302023-03-06220220190300357764100939572018029557700-9602023-03-0920122119130134875699939675018029557600-10002023-03-12NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2023-03-1519718714727739071498145573017039357500-10702023-03-18NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2023-03-21239239189309434785106247667016488957400-12302023-03-25NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2023-03-26NANANANANANANANANANANANANA2023-03-27216236166296481775103749267016089157300-12402023-03-28241251191311471765103446767016089057200-13402023-03-29250270210340451755102443867016089057200-12802023-03-3025724721732743172599843167016089007200-128026银河能化-尿素日报能源化工研发报告河南心连心出厂价山东联盟出厂价单位元吨单位元吨340034002900290024002400190019001400140001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0120202021202220232020202120222023河北正元出厂价安徽昊源出厂价单位元吨单位元吨340034002900290024002400190019001400140001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0120202021202220232020202120222023心连心基差山东联盟基差单位元吨单位元吨600600375375150150757501-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0130012-01300202120222023202120222023河北正元基差安徽昊源基差单位元吨单位元吨600600375375150150757501-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0130030020212022202320212022202336银河能化-尿素日报能源化工研发报告2023-03-15尿素周度数据尿素开工率卓创尿素开工率隆众单位单位800080007250725065006500575057505000500001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-01202120222023202120222023尿素煤制开工率隆众尿素气制开工率隆众单位单位80008000725060006500400057502000500000001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-01202120222023202120222023尿素产量隆众尿素日均产量隆众单位万吨单位万吨120001700110001550100001400900012508000110001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-01202120222023202120222023尿素煤制产量隆众尿素气制开工率隆众单位万吨单位90008000825060007500400067502000600000001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0120212022202320212022202346银河能化-尿素日报能源化工研发报告2023-03-15尿素周度数据尿素企业库存隆众尿素港口库存隆众单位万吨单位万吨10500750080005750550040003000225050050001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-01202120222023202120222023尿素各省供应量卓创尿素各省需求量卓创单位万吨单位万吨220001600019000140001600012000130001000010000800001-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-0101-0102-0103-0104-0105-0106-0107-0108-0109-0110-0111-0112-012022202320222023复合肥开工率隆众复合肥厂库卓创单位单位万吨06090000507500040600003045000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