美联储最新的加息25个基点与市场预期一致。我们相信衰退的风险和银行业的危机将限制美联储未来进一步的加息，且可能导致降息更早到来。短期内，预计金属价格将更加波动。
　　旺季消费需求低于市场预期，且库存的减少并不顺利。中国的原铝总产能小幅增长至4,000万吨左右。旺季的消费需求低于市场预期，铝加工企业的产能利用率回升缓慢。
　　市场对衰退和金融危机的担忧大幅上升，铜价可能会更加波动。由于银行危机在短期内得到缓解且未扩散，铜价小幅反弹。美国的PMI数据强劲，但是市场对衰退的担忧在上升。
　　我们维持有色金属行业“跑赢大市”的投资评级。我们推荐中国宏桥（01378 HK）、兴发铝业（00098 HK）和紫金矿业（02899 HK）。

研究报告全文：股票Research研究EquitySectorTableBasicInfoReportNonferrousMetalsSectorKevinGuo郭勇行业报告有色金属行业8675523976671yongguogtjascomhk29March2023TableMainInfoBi-WeeklyUpdateRisingMarketConcernsonRecession行双周报市场对衰退的担忧在上升业Thelatestinterestratehikeof25bpbytheUSFederalReservewasinlinewithmarketexpectationsWebelievethatrecessionrisksandbankingRatingTableInvestInfoOutperform报sectoruncertaintywillconstrainfurtherUSFederalReserveinterestrateMaintainedhikesinthefutureandmayleadtofasterinterestratecutsIntheshortterm告ReportSectormetalpricesareexpectedtobemorevolatile评级跑赢大市维持Consumptiondemandinthepeakseasonwaslowerthanmarket2expectationandinventorydeclinewasnotsmoothChinastotalprimaryNonferrousmetalssectorperformancealuminumproductioncapacityincreasedslightlytoabout40milliontons有色金属行业表现Consumptiondemandinthepeakseasonwaslowerthanmarketexpectation1400returnandproductioncapacityutilizationrateofaluminumsemi-fabricating1200companiesonlyresumedslowly1000800Marketconcernsonarecessionandfinancialcrisisroselargely600copperpricemaybemorevolatileCopperpricereboundedslightlyasthe400200bankingcrisiswasrelievedinashortperiodanddidnotspreadThePMI00证dataoftheUSwasstrongbutmarketconcernsonarecessionarerising-200告WemaintainOutperforminvestmentratingforthenonferrousmetals-400券sectorWerecommendChinaHongqiao01378HKXingfaAluminium-600研报-80000098HKandZijinMining02899HKMar22May22Jul22Sep22Nov22Jan23Mar23copperaluminumzincleadnickeltin究究美联储最新的加息25个基点与市场预期一致我们相信衰退的风险和银行业的危机将限ResearchReportSourceBloomberg报研制美联储未来进一步的加息且可能导致降息更早到来短期内预计金属价格将更加波告动券Equity旺季消费需求低于市场预期且库存的减少并不顺利中国的原铝总产能小幅增长至4000证万吨左右旺季的消费需求低于市场预期铝加工企业的产能利用率回升缓慢市场对衰退和金融危机的担忧大幅上升铜价可能会更加波动由于银行危机在短期内得到缓解且未扩散铜价小幅反弹美国的PMI数据强劲但是市场对衰退的担忧在上升我们维持有色金属行业跑赢大市的投资评级我们推荐中国宏桥01378HK兴发铝业00098HK和紫金矿业02899HKTab有色l金e属行业LefNonferrousSectorMetalstMarginSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of8See54321RiskHKAluminiumXingfa00098Mining02899ZijinHKWInwhichhawkishconcernmarketpricereboundCopperaluminumsheetproducts0upwascompaniessemialuminumpeaktheindemandConsumptionsideDemandwasaroundweekcapacitymillion4009lasttonsralsoProvinceGuizhouandProvinceHenanProvinceGuangxiincapacityproductionaluminumprimaryofpartBesidesresumedEsideSupplysmoothnotAluminuminterescreditandrateinteresthighsetheHencesupplementliquiditybyonlyresolvedbenotwillitsoFedforHoweverconcernthatsignaledReserveFederalTheUpdateSectorthGrowthofNewberatevehiclesmaylowermarketthanenergyexpectationsConflictRussiabetweenandUkrainecontinuemayetiiyupynihaPoicipoeiteatwwesnmrpiaylmnmrdcincapacityproductionaluminumprimarymoreandweekstwopasttheinimprovedProvinceSichuaninsupplylectricityvestmentsuggestionvestmentemaintainmaintainectorifnothandledproperlyhandlednotifctorChinasmacroReservesTheinterestrateFederalhikeDemediumandsmallbanksthistimeweremainlyattributabletohighercapitalcostsafterthefastinterestratehikehikerateinterestfasttheaftercostscapitalhighertoattributablemainlyweretimethisbankssmallandmediumownstreamlasslaesumedproductionandnewprimaryaluminumproductioncapacitycommencedproductionAsaresulttotalproductiontotalresultaAsproductioncommencedcapacityproductionaluminumprimarynewandproductionesumedandttratethikeetitrsrtief25ofhikerateinteresttestpagMarketconcernMarketwasup10pptsppts10upwasandealuminumfoilfoilaluminumfoConsumptiondemandinthepeakseasonwaslowerthanmarketexpectationandexpectationmarketthanlowerwasseasonpeaktheindemandConsumptionedrOutperformaluminumbar-disclaimersconsumptiondemandmayinvestorraisefurtherfabrsslightlyslightlyasthebankeconomiceconomiconandmaytheliquiditycrisisliquiditytheicatingcompaniesicatinga2recessionarerisingHowevertheattitudtheHoweverrisingarerecessions6topptsremainunchangedremainsand05pptsppts05andgrowthbemaylowerthanmarketexpectationsrateinvestmentratingforratinginvestmentleadtoondecrisisAlthoughthePMIdatawasstronginMarchtheUSeconomymayfallintorecessionduetotoduerecessionintofallmayeconomyUStheMarchinstrongwasdataPMItheAlthoughtheretherecreasedarecessionandfinancialfinancialandrecession44fasterintereenvironmentWebelievetherisksofofrisksthebelieveWeenvironmentingesnalwrhnaktxettoadpandexpectationmarketthanlowerwasseasonitelastheinintheinwillbenointerestratecutrateinterestnobewillpbteSeeaReserveFederalUSthebybpmayonlycrisiscrisiswasrelievedinashortperiodanddidnotspreadout88totoconcern0be560and640respectively640and560maybemayresumedslowlyresumedbankDomesticaluminuminventorydeclinedeclineinventoryaluminumDomestic0000andtonslowerthanPstingthetherateIncuttermtheshortpricesmetalaretoexpectedbemorevolatilesexpectspricebevolatilemorecoppertoundersuchWeofrateutilizationcapacityweektanhigherhigherthanexpectationssectorremainstobeagreatabetoremainssectorincreasenonferrousexpectation15crisisroselargelycopperpricemaybemorevolatilemorebemaypricecopperlargelyrosecrisis0P0tonstotons01roductioncapacityutilizationrateofleadingaluminumfabricatingaluminumleadingofrateutilizationcapacityroductionofmetals210000weektonseoftheFederalReserveregardingmonetarypolicyremainspolicymonetaryregardingReserveFederaltheofethisyearthissseFedsector12financialrisksfinancialawh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