2023年1至2月舜宇光学（“公司”）的出货量数据反映了仍然疲弱的智能手机市场需求。2023年1至2月手机镜头和手机摄像模组的出货量分别同比下滑了38.7%和28.8%。尤其是手机摄像模组2023年2月出现了相对较大的25.7%环比下滑，这主要是由于客户要求在1月提前交付部分产品。
　　 2023年1至2月车载镜头出货量同比上升29.6%。我们预计公司的车载镜头业务将维持较强的增长动能，考虑到（1）汽车供应链中关键零部件缺货问题逐步得到缓解，以及（2）新能源汽车和智能化汽车发展加速。
　　公司公布了一份盈利预警。预计2022年公司的股东净利将为人民币22.446亿元至人民币24.940亿元，这与2021年人民币49.880亿元的股东净利相比有着50%至55%的同比下滑。公司认为利润的下滑主要是由于（1）2022年受疫情反复、芯片短缺、俄乌冲突、通货膨胀以及全球经济的不确定性等因素所影响，智能手机市场的需求疲软以及智能手机摄像头呈现“降规降配”趋势，导致公司手机镜头及手机摄像模组的出货量同比下滑，并加大了平均售价和毛利率的下行压力；以及（2）2022年人民币有所贬值，公司于2018年1月23日发行的6亿美元债券产生了未变现外汇亏损约人民币3.533亿元（非现金项目）。
　　考虑到与北美和韩国大客户的稳定合作，我们预计公司2023年的手机镜头出货量对于全球消费电子市场的恢复将会非常敏感。我们预计2023年将是苹果的创新大年，一些主力新品的性能将得到显著提高，而其革命性的混合现实（MR）设备也已经呼之欲出。因此，中长期来看整个苹果供应链有望深度受益于需求恢复与产品升级。然而，加息与对经济衰退的担忧给全球消费电子市场带来了更多不确定性。一些投资者相信转折点将出现在2023年下半年。我们目前对公司的投资评级为“收集”，每股目标价为131.00港元，目标价相当于24.0倍2024年市盈率。
　　

研究报告全文：股票研究TableTitleFlashNoteSunnyOptical02382HKJackLiu柳晨EquityResearch85225092149快讯舜宇光学02382HKchenliugtjascomhk13March2023ShipmentTableSummaryDataReviewContinuedGrowthMomentuminVehicleLenses出货量数据点评车载镜头的增长势头延续快ShipmentstatisticsofSunnyOpticaltheCompanyin1-2M2023reflectedthatdemandfromthe讯smartphonemarketisstillweakShipmentvolumeforhandsetlenssetsandhandsetcameramodulesinFlashNote1-2M2023declinedby387YoYand288YoYrespectivelySpecificallyhandsetcameramodulesregisteredrelativelylargeMoMdeclineof257inFeb2023whichwasmainlyduetocustomerrequestsforshippingpartialproductsinadvanceinJanuaryShipmentvolumeofvehiclelenssetsgrewby296YoYin1-2M2023WeexpecttheCompanysvehiclelenssetsbusinesstomaintainrelativelystronggrowthmomentumconsideringthatishortagesofkeycomponentsintheautosupplychainwillgraduallyalleviateandiidevelopmentofnewenergyvehiclesandintelligentvehiclesisexpectedtoaccelerateTheCompanyannouncedaprofitalertstatementItisexpectedthattheCompanysshareholdersnetprofitin2022willamounttobetweenRMB22446million-RMB24940millionrepresentinga50-55YoYdecrease证comparedtotheshareholdersnetprofitofRMB49880millionin2021TheCompanyconsiderssuchprofit券declinewasmainlydueto1factorssuchasresurgencesintheCovidpandemicchipshortages研Russian-Ukraineconflictinflationanduncertaintiesintheglobaleconomyin2022thesmartphonemarket告experiencedweakdemandandsmartphonecamerasshowedatrendofdespecificationwhichresultedina究YoYdecreaseinshipmentvolumeofhandsetlenssetsandhandsetcameramodulesoftheCompanywith报报increasingpressureonaveragesellingpricesandgrossprofitmarginsand2thedepreciationoftheRMBin告究2022resultedinunrealisedforeignexchangelossamountingtoapproximatelyRMB3533millionwhichwasEquityResearchReport研causedbytheUS6000millioninbondsissuedbytheCompanyon23January2018whichwasanon-cashTabitem券leIConsideringstablecooperationwithitsmajorcustomersinNorthAmericaandKoreaweexpectthe证nfo1Companyshandsetlensshipmentsin2023tobehighlysensitivetorecoveryintheglobalconsumer电electronicsmarketWeanticipatethat2023willbeavitalyearforAppleinnovationasseveralmajornew子SectorproductswilloffersignificantperformanceimprovementandarevolutionarymixedrealityMRproductisonthe行horizonThereforethewholeApplesupplychainwillbenefitmassivelyfromdemandresumptionandproduct业upgradeinthemid-to-longtermHoweverinterestratehikesandconcernsabouteconomicrecessionhasbroughtmoreuncertaintytotheglobalconsumerelectronicsmarketSomeinvestorsbelievethattheturningElectronicspointwillappearin2H23OurcurrentinvestmentratingfortheCompanyisAccumulatewithatargetpriceofHK13100persharerepresenting240x2024FPERTable-1SunnyOpticalsmonthlyshipmentsstatisticsFeb2023YTD2023MajorProducts000piecesYoYMoM000piecesYoYTabHandsetlenssets80671260210147344387leInfo2Vehiclelenssets792139713717102296中Handsetcameramodules3024639225770966288舜外SourcetheCompanyGuotaiJunanInternational宇运光输学Sunny02382OpticalHKSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage1of3SunnyOptical02382HKTablePageHeader2023年1至2月舜宇光学公司的出货量数据反映了仍然疲弱的智能手机市场需求2023年1至2月手机镜头和手机摄像模组的出货量分别同比下滑了387和288尤其是手机摄像模组2023年2月出现了相对较大的257环比下1raMthgiRelbaT滑这主要是由于客户要求在1月提前交付部分产品2023年1至2月车载镜头出货量同比上升296我们预计公司的车载镜头业务将维持较强的增长动能考虑到1汽车供应链中关键零部件缺货问题逐步得到缓解以及2新能源汽车和智能化汽车发展加速公司公布了一份盈利预警预计2022年公司的股东净利将为人民币22446亿元至人民币24940亿元这与2021年人民币49880亿元的股东净利相比有着50至55的同比下滑公司认为利润的下滑主要是由于12022年受疫情反复13March2023芯片短缺俄乌冲突通货膨胀以及全球经济的不确定性等因素所影响智能手机市场的需求疲软以及智能手机摄像头呈现降规降配趋势导致公司手机镜头及手机摄像模组的出货量同比下滑并加大了平均售价和毛利率的下行压力以及22022年人民币有所贬值公司于2018年1月23日发行的6亿美元债券产生了未变现外汇亏损约人民币3533亿元非现金项目考虑到与北美和韩国大客户的稳定合作我们预计公司2023年的手机镜头出货量对于全球消费电子市场的恢复将会非常敏感我们预计2023年将是苹果的创新大年一些主力新品的性能将得到显著提高而其革命性的混合现实MR设备也已经呼之欲出因此中长期来看整个苹果供应链有望深度受益于需求恢复与产品升级然而加息与对经济衰退的担忧给全球消费电子市场带来了更多不确定性一些投资者相信转折点将出现在2023年下半年我们目前对公司的投资评2raMthgiRelbaT级为收集每股目标价为13100港元目标价相当于240倍2024年市盈率表-1舜宇光学月度出货量数据2023年2月2023年初至今主要产品千件同比环比千件同比手机镜头80671260210147344387车载镜头792139713717102296手机摄像模组3024639225770966288资料来源公司国泰君安国际02382HK舜宇光学SunnyOpticalFlashNoteSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage2of3SunnyOptical02382HKTablePageHeaderCompanyRatingDefinition1raMthgiRelbaTTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18monthsRatingDefinitionBuy买入RelativePerformance15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorableAccumulate收集RelativePerformanceis5to15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisfavorable13March2023Neutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisneutralReduce减持RelativePerformanceis-5to-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSell卖出RelativePerformance-15orthefundamentaloutlookofthecompanyorsectorisunfavorableSectorTableRatingIndustryDefinitionRatingDefinitionTheBenchmarkHongKongHangSengIndexTimeHorizon6to18months2raMthgiRelbaTRatingDefinitionOutperform跑赢大市RelativePerformance5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisfavorableNeutral中性RelativePerformanceis-5to5orthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisneutralUnderperform跑输大市RelativePerformance-5OrthefundamentaloutlookofthesectorisunfavorableTableDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTSDISCLOSUREOFINTERESTS1TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonotserveasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport2TheAnalystsandtheirassociatesdonothaveanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtotheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport3ExceptforCHINAGRANDPHARMACEUTICALANDHEALTHCARE00512HKLUZHOUBANK01983HKSFREIT0219102382HKHKJINSHANGBANK02558HKBANKOFZHENGZHOU06196HKDONGGUANRURALCOMMERCIALBANK09889HKGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesdonotholdequaltoormorethan1ofthemarketcapitalizationoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport4GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenothadinvestmentbankingrelationshipswiththeissuermentionedinthisResearchReportwithinthepreceding12months舜宇光学5GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesaremakingorwillmakeamarketinthesecuritiesinrespectoftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReport6GuotaiJunananditsgroupcompanieshavenotemployedanindividualservingasanofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportThereisnoofficeroftheissuermentionedinthisResearchReportassociatedwithGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesSunnyOpticalDISCLAIMERThisResearchReportdoesnotconstituteaninvitationoroffertoacquirepurchaseorsubscribeforsecuritiesbyGuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedGuotaiJunanGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniesmaydobusinessthatrelatestocompaniescoveredinresearchreportsincludinginvestmentbankinginvestmentservicesetcforexampletheplacingagentleadmanagersponsorunderwriterorinvestproprietarilyAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentstrategiesexpressedorallyorinwrittenformbysalespersonsdealersandotherprofessionalexecutivesofGuotaiJunangroupofcompaniesAnyopinionsexpressedinthisreportmaydifferorbecontrarytoopinionsorinvestmentdecisionsmadebytheassetmanagementandinvestmentbankinggroupsofGuotaiJunanThoughbestefforthasbeenmadetoensuretheaccuracyoftheinformationanddatacontainedinthisResearchReportGuotaiJunandoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyandcompletenessoftheinformationanddatahereinThisResearchReportmaycontainsomeforward-lookingestimatesandforecastsderivedfromtheassumptionsofthefuturepoliticalandeconomicconditionswithinherentlyunpredictableandmutablesituationsouncertaintymaycontainInvestorsshouldunderstandandcomprehendtheinvestmentobjectivesanditsrelatedrisksandwherenecessaryconsulttheirownfinancialadviserspriortoanyinvestmentdecisionThisResearchReportisnotdirectedatorintendedfordistributiontoorusebyanypersonorentitywhoisacitizenorresidentoforlocatedinanyjurisdictionwheresuchdistributionpublicationavailabilityorusewouldbecontrarytoapplicablelaworregulationorwhichwouldsubjectGuotaiJunananditsgroupcompaniestoanyregistrationorlicensingrequirementwithinsuchjurisdiction2023GuotaiJunanSecuritiesHongKongLimitedAllRightsReserved27FLowBlockGrandMillenniumPlaza181QueensRoadCentralHongKongTel8522509-9118Fax8522509-7793WebsitewwwgtjacomhkFlashNoteSeethelastpagefordisclaimerPage3of3